Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Transition to fatherhood: A cross-cultural comparison

A prospective study was conducted of fathers' transition to parenthood from mid-pregnancy to 6 weeks postpartum. The subjects were 198 fathers from Greece (Athens) and 142 from Britain (Bristol). Social class, age and parity distributions were similar between the two populations. The culture and social structure experienced by each varied widely, however, and was a focus of interest. Two major themes in fatherhood across the two populations were explored: first, the father's instrumental role in provision of emotional and practical support to his partner and care for his child; and second the father's emotional reaction to his partner's pregnancy, the birth of his child and early parenthood. In both cultures fathers reported that they took an active instrumental role in supporting their partner and in participating in childcare. Markedly more British fathers attended the delivery. There were no overall differences in the degree to which fathers participated in childcare though the nature of this participation varied. British fathers more commonly took on housework duties. During their partner's pregnancy Greek fathers experienced significantly higher malaise than their British counterparts and also reported feeling that they had less social support. Common to many fathers in both cultures during this time were fears that their partner might change or be damaged by the pregnancy. After the birth, there was no difference in emotional well-being between the Greek and British fathers. Reactions to fatherhood and enjoyment of the child were similar for the two cultures also. Patterns of correlation between variables both within and across the antenatal and postnatal time periods were, for the most part, similar for the two cultures. Social support, however, was found to relate to father's emotional and instrumental reaction to parenthood only in the case of the British sample. Findings are discussed in terms of each culture's point on the continuum of social change.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual’s previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag–recapture data and tag–recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Isotopic records of terrestrial ice age environments in mammoth bioapatite

Palaeoenvironments of the latter half of the Weichselian ice age and the transition to the Holocene, from ca. 52 to 4 ka, were investigated using isotopic analysis of oxygen, carbon and strontium in mammal skeletal apatite. The study material consisted predominantly of subfossil bones and teeth of the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius Blumenbach), collected from Europe and Wrangel Island, northeastern Siberia. All samples have been radiocarbon dated, and their ages range from >52 ka to 4 ka. Altogether, 100 specimens were sampled for the isotopic work. In Europe, the studies focused on the glacial palaeoclimate and habitat palaeoecology. To minimise the influence of possible diagenetic effects, the palaeoclimatological and ecological reconstructions were based on the enamel samples only. The results of the oxygen isotope analysis of mammoth enamel phosphate from Finland and adjacent nortwestern Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Denmark and Sweden provide the first estimate of oxygen isotope values in glacial precipitation in northern Europe. The glacial precipitation oxygen isotope values range from ca. -9.2±1.5 in western Denmark to -15.3 in Kirillov, northwestern Russia. These values are 0.6-4.1 lower than those in present-day precipitation, with the largest changes recorded in the currently marine influenced southern Sweden and the Baltic region. The new enamel-derived oxygen isotope data from this study, combined with oxygen isotope records from earlier investigations on mammoth tooth enamel and palaeogroundwaters, facilitate a reconstruction of the spatial patterns of the oxygen isotope values of precipitation and palaeotemperatures over much of Europe. The reconstructed geographic pattern of oxygen isotope levels in precipitation during 52-24 ka reflects the progressive isotopic depletion of air masses moving northeast, consistent with a westerly source of moisture for the entire region, and a circulation pattern similar to that of the present-day. The application of regionally varied δ/T-slopes, estimated from palaeogroundwater data and modern spatial correlations, yield reasonable estimates of glacial surface temperatures in Europe and imply 2-9°C lower long-term mean annual surface temperatures during the glacial period. The isotopic composition of carbon in the enamel samples indicates a pure C3 diet for the European mammoths, in agreement with previous investigations of mammoth ecology. A faint geographical gradient in the carbon isotope values of enamel is discernible, with more negative values in the northeast. The spatial trend is consistent with the climatic implications of the enamel oxygen isotope data, but may also suggest regional differences in habitat openness. The palaeogeographical changes caused by the eustatic rise of global sea level at the end of the Weichselian ice age was investigated on Wrangel Island, using the strontium isotope (Sr-87/Sr-86) ratios in the skeletal apatite of the local mammoth fauna. The diagenetic evaluations suggest good preservation of the original Sr isotope ratios, even in the bone specimens included in the study material. To estimate present-day environmental Sr isotope values on Wrangel Island, bioapatite samples from modern reindeer and muskoxen, as well as surface waters from rivers and ice wedges were analysed. A significant shift towards more radiogenic bioapatite Sr isotope ratios, from 0.71218 ± 0.00103 to 0.71491 ± 0.00138, marks the beginning of the Holocene. This implies a change in the migration patterns of the mammals, ultimately reflecting the inundation of the mainland connection and isolation of the population. The bioapatite Sr isotope data supports published coastline reconstructions placing the time of separation from the mainland to ca. 10-10.5 ka ago. The shift towards more radiogenic Sr isotope values in mid-Holocene subfossil remains after 8 ka ago reflects the rapid rise of the sea level from 10 to 8 ka, resulting in a considerable reduction of the accessible range area on the early Wrangel Island.

Atypical correlation of otolith strontium : calcium and barium : calcium across a marine–freshwater life history transition of a diadromous fish

Variation in strontium (Sr) and barium (Ba) within otoliths is invaluable to studies of fish diadromy. Typically, otolith Sr : Ca is positively related to salinity, and the ratios of Ba and Sr to calcium (Ca) vary in opposite directions in relation to salinity. In this study of jungle perch, Kuhlia rupestris, otolith Sr : Ca and Ba : Ca, however, showed the same rapid increase as late-larval stages transitioned directly from a marine to freshwater environment. This transition was indicated by a microstructural check mark on otoliths at 35–45 days age. As expected ambient Sr was lower in the fresh than the marine water, however, low Ca levels (0.4 mg L–1) of the freshwater resulted in the Sr : Ca being substantially higher than the marine water. Importantly, the otolith Sr : Ba ratio showed the expected pattern of a decrease from the marine to freshwater stage, illustrating that Sr : Ba provided a more reliable inference of diadromous behaviour based on prior expectations of their relationship to salinity, than did Sr : Ca. The results demonstrate that Ca variation in freshwaters can potentially be an important influence on otolith element : Ca ratios and that inferences of marine–freshwater habitat use from otolith Sr : Ca alone can be problematic without an understanding of water chemistry.

Transition to parenthood after assisted reproductive treatment: Follow-up study of singleton pregnancies

Infertility treatments are relatively easily available in most Western countries today, but the psychological consequences of these high-tech treatments have scarcely been addressed. The purpose of this controlled longitudinal study was to explore the early environment of the infant born by assisted reproductive treatment (ART). We focused on the parents mental well-being, marital relations and experience of parenting. In addition to this, we assessed parent child interaction and parents mental representations of their child after long-standing infertility and several unsuccessful ART attempts. The subjects were infertile couples who achieved a singleton pregnancy by in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). The control group comprised of spontaneously conceiving couples with singleton pregnancies. ART women showed fewer depressive symptoms than controls during pregnancy and after delivery, but the difference vanished by the end of the child s first year. ART men consistently had lower levels of anxiety symptoms, sleeping difficulties, and social dysfunction than control men. Control women experienced a decrease in dyadic consensus during the child s first year, which did not happen among ART women. After the child was born, ART men reported a higher level of sexual affection compared with control men. Psychic symptoms and stressful life events were differently related to marital relations in ART and control groups. The parenting experiences of ART mothers were in general at a higher level, compared with controls, and they changed in a positive direction during the child s first year. Fathering experiences were at the same level in both groups, and they changed positively in both groups by the end of the child s first year. The parenting experiences of ART mothers and fathers were more resilient to certain child-related stressors than those of control group. Both mothers and fathers with long-term infertility showed more sensitive behaviour with their child in toddler-age than in infancy. Correspondingly, children s cooperation increased. Mothers often mentioned a fear of miscarriage and difficulty in creating representations of the child during pregnancy. Descriptions of the infants were mainly rich, vivid and loaded with positive features. In conclusion, ART parents in general seem to adapt well to the transition to parenthood. Former infertility and ART do not seem to constitute a risk for parents mental health, marital relations or experience of parenting. Even longstanding infertility with several unsuccessful treatment attempts did not create a risk as regards parenting behaviour or parents mental representations of their child. In this group, however, women were found to have fear for losing the child and difficulty in creating representations of the child during pregnancy, which in some cases may indicate need for psychosocial support. Even though our results are encouraging, infertility and infertility treatments are generally considered as a stressful experience. It is a challenge for health authorities to recognize those couples who need professional help to overcome the distressing experiences of infertility and ART.

Retirement Transition and Well-being : A 16-year Longitudinal Study

The ageing of the labour force and falling employment rates have forced policy makers in industrialized countries to find means of increasing the well-being of older workers and of lengthening their work careers. The main objective of this thesis was to study longitudinally how health, functional capacity, subjective well-being, and lifestyle change as people grow older, and what effect retirement has on these factors and on their relationships. The present study is a follow-up questionnaire study of Finnish municipal workers, conducted in 1981 to 1997 at the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. In 1981, a postal questionnaire was sent to 7344 municipal workers in different parts of Finland. The respondents were born between 1923 and 1937. A total of 6257 persons responded to the first questionnaire. In the end, a total of 3817 persons had responded to all four (1981, 1985, 1992, 1997) questionnaires. (The response rate was 69% of the living participants). Cross-tabulations, comparison of means, logistic regression analyses and general linear models with repeated measures were used to derive the results. The transition from work life to retirement, and the following years as a pensioner were associated with many changes. Involvement in various activities increased during the transition stage but later decreased to the previous level. Physical exercise was an exception: it became increasingly popular over the years. Perceived health improved markedly from the working stage to the retirement transition stage, even though morbidity increased steadily during the follow-up. On the other hand, functional capacity decreased over the follow-up, especially among those who were occupationally active until the retirement stage. Subjective well-being remained stable during the follow-up period. There were, however, great differences based on the type of work, favouring those whose work had been mental in nature. The impact of activity level on maintaining well-being became greater during the follow-up, whereas the effect of physical functioning diminished. Good physical functioning and an active life-style contributed to staying on at work until normal retirement age. Also work-related factors, i.e. possibilities for development and influence at work, responsibility for others, meaningful work, and satisfaction with working time arrangements were positively related to continuing working. The transition from work to retirement had a positive impact on a person s health and functional capacity. The study results support the view that it should be possible to ease one s work pace during the last years of a work career. This might lower the threshold between work and retirement and convince people that there will still be time to enjoy retirement also a few years later.

Population age structure and private consumption in Spain

In this paper we study the effect of population age distribution upon private consumption expenditure in Spain from 1964 to 1997 using aggregate data. We obtain four main results. First, changes in the population pyramid have substantial effects upon the behaviour of private consumption. Second, the pattern of the coefficients of the demographic variables is not consistent with the simplest version of the life cycle hypothesis. Third, we estimate the impact of the demographic transition upon consumption and find positive values associated with episodes in which the shares of groups of individuals with expenditure levels higher (lower) than the mean increased (decreased). Fourth, the results are robust to alternative specifications for the population age distribution.

Age validation, growth modeling, and mortality estimates for striped trumpeter (Latris lineata) from southeastern Australia: making the most of patchy data

Age estimates for striped trumpeter (Latris lineata) from Tasmanian waters were produced by counting annuli on the transverse section of sagittal otoliths and were validated by comparison of growth with known-age individuals and modal progression of a strong recruitment pulse. Estimated ages ranged from one to 43 years; fast growth rates were observed for the first five years. Minimal sexual dimorphism was shown to exist between length, weight, and growth characteristics of striped trumpeter. Seasonal growth variability was strong in individuals up to at least age four, and growth rates peaked approximately one month after the observed peak in sea surface temperature. A modified two-phase von Bertalanffy growth function was fitted to the length-at-age data, and the transition between growth phases was linked to apparent changes in physiological and life history traits, including offshore movement as fish approach maturity. The two-phase curve was found to represent the mean length at age in the data better than the standard von Bertalanffy growth function. Total mortality was estimated by using catch curve analysis based on the standard and two-phase von Bertalanffy growth functions, and estimates of natural mortality were calculated by using two empirical models, one based on longevity and the other based on the parameters L∞ and k from both growth functions. The interactions between an inshore gillnet fishery targeting predominately juveniles and an offshore hook fishery targeting predominately adults highlight the need to use a precautionary approach when developing harvest strategies.

Developing a growth-transition matrix for the stock assessment of the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) off Maine

The green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) is important to the economy of Maine. It is the state’s fourth largest fishery by value. The fishery has experienced a continuous decline in landings since 1992 because of decreasing stock abundance. Because determining the age of sea urchins is often difficult, a formal stock assessment demands the development of a size-structured population dynamic model. One of the most important components in a size-structured model is a growth-transition matrix. We developed an approach for estimating the growth-transition matrix using von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated in previous studies of the green sea urchin off Maine. This approach explicitly considers size-specific variations associated with yearly growth increments for these urchins. The proposed growth-transition matrix can be updated readily with new information on growth, which is important because changes in stock abundance and the ecosystem will likely result in changes in sea urchin key life history parameters including growth. This growth-transition matrix can be readily incorporated into the size-structured stock assessment model that has been developed for assessing the green sea urchin stock off Maine.

An investigation of potential users of career transition services in the United Kingdom

North, J., Lavallee, D., An investigation of potential users of career transition services in the United Kingdom, Psychology of Sport and Exercise, Vol. 5, No. 1. (January 2004), pp. 77-84. RAE2008

Reduced vision in older adults with age related macular degeneration interferes with ability to care for self and impairs role as carer

Aim: To study the relation between visual impairment and ability to care for oneself or a dependant in older people with age related macular degeneration (AMD). Method: Cross sectional study of older people with visual impairment due to AMD in a specialised retinal service clinic. 199 subjects who underwent visual function assessment (fully corrected distance and near acuity and contrast sensitivity in both eyes), followed by completion of a package of questionnaires dealing with general health status (SF36), visual functioning (Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision, DLTV) and ability to care for self or provide care to others. The outcome measure was self reported ability to care for self and others. Three levels of self reported ability to care were identified—inability to care for self (level 1), ability to care for self but not others (level 2), and ability to care for self and others (level 3). Results: People who reported good general health status and visual functioning (that is, had high scores on SF36 and DLTV) were more likely to state that they were able to care for self and others. Similarly people with good vision in the better seeing eye were more likely to report ability to care for self and others. People with a distance visual acuity (DVA) worse than 0.4 logMAR (Snellen 6/15) had less than 50% probability of assigning themselves to care level 3 and those with DVA worse than 1.0 logMAR (Snellen 6/60) had a probability of greater than 50% or for assigning themselves to care level 1. Regression analyses with level of care as the dependent variable and demographic factors, DLTV subscales, and SF36 dimensions as the explanatory variables confirmed that the DLTV subscale 1 was the most important variable in the transition from care level 3 to care level 2. The regression analyses also confirmed that the DLTV subscale 2 was the most important in the transition from care level 3 to care level 1. Conclusions: Ability to care for self and dependants has a strong relation with self reported visual functioning and quality of life and is adversely influenced by visual impairment. The acuity at which the balance of probability shifts in the direction of diminished ability to care for self or others is lower than the level set by social care agencies for provision of support. These findings have implications for those involved with visual rehabilitation and for studies of the cost effectiveness of interventions in AMD.

A multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation of the findspot of an Iron Age bog body from Oldcroghan, Co. Offaly, Ireland

In 2003, the remains of an Early Iron Age bog body, known as ‘Oldcroghan Man’, were recovered during the cutting of a drainage ditch in a bog in the Irish Midlands. Only some fingernails and a withe fragment remained undisturbed in situ in the drain face, providing the sole evidence for the original position of the body. A detailed reconstruction of the depositional context of the body has been undertaken through multi-proxy analyses of a peat monolith collected at the findspot. The palynological record shows that the surrounding area was the focus of intensive human activity during the Later Bronze Age, but was largely abandoned during the Bronze Age–Iron transition in the mid-first millennium BC. In the mid-4th century BC, a bog pool developed at the site, evidenced in the stratigraphic, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and coleopteran records. Plant macrofossil and pollen analysis of peat samples associated with the fingernails suggests that the body was deposited in this pool most likely during the 3rd century BC. The absence of carrion beetle fauna points to complete submergence of the body within the pool. Deposition occurred shortly before or around the time that the surrounding area again became the focus of woodland clearance, as seen in the extended pollen record from the peat monolith. This period corresponds to the Early Iron Age in Ireland, during which renewed cultural connections with Britain and continental Europe can be seen in the archaeological record and widespread forest clearance is recorded in pollen records from across Ireland. The palaeoenvironmental results indicate, therefore, that the demise of Oldcroghan Man took place at a pivotal time of socio-economic and perhaps political change.

Pre-Retirement Age Migration to Remote Rural Areas

Recent literature suggests that the increasingly blurred relationship between paid employment and retirement facilitates a retirement transition period, a life course stage, which may involve a change of residence. The role of such pre-retirement age mobility in the repopulation of rural areas has, however, received relatively little academic scrutiny. This paper draws upon findings from a two-year study conducted in three UK case study areas. It examines the extent of pre-retirement age (aged 50–64) migration into remote rural communities and the impacts this type of movement has upon economic activity, social and community engagement and service provision. It is argued that while this under-researched cohort offers opportunities to support the social and economic sustainability of rural communities (at least in the short and medium term), there are notable challenges which are likely to emerge as it ages in situ. The findings are particularly relevant given national trends on population ageing.

Socio-emotional effects of the transition from sight to blindness,

The research examined the socio-emotional impact of sight loss on a sample of 18 blind and partially sighted adults from the East coast of Scotland (average age 64). The impact of sight loss in four core areas mood, self concept, social connectedness and loss was explored. Data was collected using the mental health and social functioning sub-scales of the National Eye Institute Visual Functioning Questionnaire-25 and semi-structured interviews. Data indicated that participants experienced reduced mental health and decreased social functioning as a result of sight loss. Data also showed that participants shared common socio-emotional issues during transition from sight to blindness, starting with diagnosis, coping with deterioration of sight, experiencing loss, experiencing changed perceptions of self in relation to society, experiencing others in a changed way and experiencing rehabilitation. A theoretical model describing the socio-emotional transition from sight to blindness is proposed. Implications for practice are explored.