Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

A generalised background correction algorithm for a Halo Doppler lidar and its application to data from Finland

Current commercially available Doppler lidars provide an economical and robust solution for measuring vertical and horizontal wind velocities, together with the ability to provide co- and cross-polarised backscatter profiles. The high temporal resolution of these instruments allows turbulent properties to be obtained from studying the variation in radial velocities. However, the instrument specifications mean that certain characteristics, especially the background noise behaviour, become a limiting factor for the instrument sensitivity in regions where the aerosol load is low. Turbulent calculations require an accurate estimate of the contribution from velocity uncertainty estimates, which are directly related to the signal-to-noise ratio. Any bias in the signal-to-noise ratio will propagate through as a bias in turbulent properties. In this paper we present a method to correct for artefacts in the background noise behaviour of commercially available Doppler lidars and reduce the signal-to-noise ratio threshold used to discriminate between noise, and cloud or aerosol signals. We show that, for Doppler lidars operating continuously at a number of locations in Finland, the data availability can be increased by as much as 50 % after performing this background correction and subsequent reduction in the threshold. The reduction in bias also greatly improves subsequent calculations of turbulent properties in weak signal regimes.

Review of current in vivo measurement techniques for quantifying enteric methane emission from ruminants

Ruminant husbandry is a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG). Filling knowledge gaps and providing expert recommendation are important for defining future research priorities, improving methodologies and establishing science-based GHG mitigation solutions to government and non-governmental organisations, advisory/extension networks, and the ruminant livestock sector. The objectives of this review is to summarize published literature to provide a detailed assessment of the methodologies currently in use for measuring enteric methane (CH4) emission from individual animals under specific conditions, and give recommendations regarding their application. The methods described include respiration chambers and enclosures, sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6) technique, and techniques based on short-term measurements of gas concentrations in samples of exhaled air. This includes automated head chambers (e.g. the GreenFeed system), the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a marker, and (handheld) laser CH4 detection. Each of the techniques are compared and assessed on their capability and limitations, followed by methodology recommendations. It is concluded that there is no ‘one size fits all’ method for measuring CH4 emission by individual animals. Ultimately, the decision as to which method to use should be based on the experimental objectives and resources available. However, the need for high throughput methodology e.g. for screening large numbers of animals for genomic studies, does not justify the use of methods that are inaccurate. All CH4 measurement techniques are subject to experimental variation and random errors. Many sources of variation must be considered when measuring CH4 concentration in exhaled air samples without a quantitative or at least regular collection rate, or use of a marker to indicate (or adjust) for the proportion of exhaled CH4 sampled. Consideration of the number and timing of measurements relative to diurnal patterns of CH4 emission and respiratory exchange are important, as well as consideration of feeding patterns and associated patterns of rumen fermentation rate and other aspects of animal behaviour. Regardless of the method chosen, appropriate calibrations and recovery tests are required for both method establishment and routine operation. Successful and correct use of methods requires careful attention to detail, rigour, and routine self-assessment of the quality of the data they provide.

Measurement of the epicycle frequency in the Galactic disc and initial velocities of open clusters

A new method to measure the epicycle frequency kappa in the Galactic disc is presented. We make use of the large data base on open clusters completed by our group to derive the observed velocity vector (amplitude and direction) of the clusters in the Galactic plane. In the epicycle approximation, this velocity is equal to the circular velocity given by the rotation curve, plus a residual or perturbation velocity, of which the direction rotates as a function of time with the frequency kappa. Due to the non-random direction of the perturbation velocity at the birth time of the clusters, a plot of the present-day direction angle of this velocity as a function of the age of the clusters reveals systematic trends from which the epicycle frequency can be obtained. Our analysis considers that the Galactic potential is mainly axis-symmetric, or in other words, that the effect of the spiral arms on the Galactic orbits is small; in this sense, our results do not depend on any specific model of the spiral structure. The values of kappa that we obtain provide constraints on the rotation velocity of the in particular, V(0) is found to be 230 +/- 15 km s(-1) even if the scale (R(0) = 7.5 kpc) of the Galaxy is adopted. The measured kappa at the solar radius is 43 +/- 5 km s(-1) kpc(-1). The distribution of initial velocities of open clusters is discussed.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

Robust inference in an heteroscedastic measurement error model

In this paper we deal with robust inference in heteroscedastic measurement error models Rather than the normal distribution we postulate a Student t distribution for the observed variables Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically Consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrices of the maximum likelihood and generalized least squares estimators is also discussed Three test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest with the asymptotic chi-square distribution which guarantees correct asymptotic significance levels Results of simulations and an application to a real data set are also reported (C) 2009 The Korean Statistical Society Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Bayesian analysis of skew-t multivariate null intercept measurement error model

The multivariate skew-t distribution (J Multivar Anal 79:93-113, 2001; J R Stat Soc, Ser B 65:367-389, 2003; Statistics 37:359-363, 2003) includes the Student t, skew-Cauchy and Cauchy distributions as special cases and the normal and skew-normal ones as limiting cases. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis of repeated measures, pretest/post-test data, under multivariate null intercept measurement error model (J Biopharm Stat 13(4):763-771, 2003) where the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a Student t and skew-t distribution, respectively. The results and methods are numerically illustrated with an example in the field of dentistry.

Measurement of thermal neutron cross section and resonance integral for the (165)Ho(n, gamma)(166g)Ho reaction

The ground state thermal neutron cross section and the resonance integral for the (165)Ho(n, gamma)(166)Ho reaction in thermal and 1/E regions, respectively, of a thermal reactor neutron spectrum have been measured experimentally by activation technique. The reaction product, (166)Ho in the ground state, is gaining considerable importance as a therapeutic radionuclide and precisely measured data of the reaction are of significance from the fundamental point of view as well as for application. In this work, the spectrographically pure holmium oxide (Ho(2)O(3)) powder samples were irradiated with and without cadmium covers at the IEA-RI reactor (IPEN, Sao Paulo), Brazil. The deviation of the neutron spectrum shape from 1/E law was measured by co-irradiating Co, Zn, Zr and Au activation detectors with thermal and epithermal neutrons followed by regression and iterative procedures. The magnitudes of the discrepancies that can occur in measurements made with the ideal 1/E law considerations in the epithermal range were studied. The measured thermal neutron cross section at the Maxwellian averaged thermal energy of 0.0253 eV is 59.0 +/- 2.1 b and for the resonance integral 657 +/- 36b. The results are measured with good precision and indicated a consistency trend to resolve the discrepant status of the literature data. The results are compared with the values in main libraries such as ENDF/B-VII, JEF-2.2 and JENDL-3.2, and with other measurements in the literature.

Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data

The rate of high energy cosmic ray muons as measured underground is shown to be strongly correlated with upper-air temperatures during short-term atmospheric (10-day) events. The effects are seen by correlating data from the MINOS underground detector and temperatures from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts during the winter periods from 2003-2007. This effect provides an independent technique for the measurement of meteorological conditions and presents a unique opportunity to measure both short and long-term changes in this important part of the atmosphere. Citation: Osprey, S., et al. (2009), Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05809, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036359.

First observation of the Cabibbo-suppressed decays Xi(+)(c)->Sigma(+)pi(-)pi(+) and Xi(+)(c)->Sigma(-)pi(+)pi(+) and measurement of their branching ratios

We report the first observation of two Cabibbo-suppressed ecay modes, Xi(+)(c) -> Sigma(+)pi(-)pi(+) and Xi c+ -> Sigma(-)pi(+)pi(+). We observe 59 +/- 14 over a background of 87, and 22 +/- 8 over a background of 13 events, respectively, for the signals. The data were accumulated using the SELEX spectrometer during the 1996-1997 fixed target run at Fermilab, chiefly from a 600 Gev/c Sigma(-) beam. The branching ratios of the decays relative to the Cabibbo-favored Xi c+ -> Xi(-)pi(+)pi(+) are measured to be B(Xi(+)(c) -> Sigma(+)pi(-)pi(+))/B(Xi(+)(c) -> Xi(-)pi(+)pi(+)) = 0.48 +/- 0.20, and B(Xi(+)(c) -> Sigma(-)pi(+)pi(+))/B(Xi(+)(c) -> Sigma(-)pi(+)pi(+)) = 0.18 +/- 0.09, respectively. We also report branching ratios for the same decay modes of the Delta(+)(c) relative to Delta(+)(c) -> pK(-)pi(+.) (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A dedicated setup for the measurement of the electron transport parameters in gases at large electric fields

Electron transport parameters are important in several areas ranging from particle detectors to plasma-assisted processing reactors. Nevertheless, especially at high fields strengths and for complex gases, relatively few data are published. A dedicated setup has been developed to measure the electron drift velocity and the first Townsend coefficient in parallel plate geometry. An RPC-like cell has been adopted to reach high field strengths without the risk of destructive sparks. The validation data obtained with pure Nitrogen will be presented and compared to a selection of the available literature and to calculations performed with Magboltz 2 version 8.6. The new data collected in pure Isobutane will then be discussed. This is the first time the electron drift velocity in pure Isobutane is measured well into the saturation region. Good agreement is found with expectations from Magboltz. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the efficiency of data representation on the modeling and characterization of complex networks

Specific choices about how to represent complex networks can have a substantial impact on the execution time required for the respective construction and analysis of those structures. In this work we report a comparison of the effects of representing complex networks statically by adjacency matrices or dynamically by adjacency lists. Three theoretical models of complex networks are considered: two types of Erdos-Renyi as well as the Barabasi-Albert model. We investigated the effect of the different representations with respect to the construction and measurement of several topological properties (i.e. degree, clustering coefficient, shortest path length, and betweenness centrality). We found that different forms of representation generally have a substantial effect on the execution time, with the sparse representation frequently resulting in remarkably superior performance. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].

Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.