Ancillary services market clearing simulation: a comparison between deterministic and heuristic methods

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment requires access to an adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tool must include ancillary market simulation. This paper proposes two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) for ancillary services dispatch. The methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data concerning the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is included in this paper.

Society and technological evolution: challenges and opportunities

Starting from the assumption that, the organizational learning process influences, in a positive way, the innovative environment and that it shows positive effects on individual, group and organizational performance, this paper deals with the analysis of companies that provide knowledge-intensive products. Referring to the initial information obtained through an adequate survey that is still being performed since May 2009, the main goal is to identify the ways to an organizational learning, measure its importance and identify the effects on the social and economic development. Our reflexion study handles two Portuguese knowledge-rich-organizations, based on the metropolitan area of Lisbon. The paper has the following methodological structure: in the first chapter we will make a theoretical contextualization about the organizational learning; in the second chapter we will handle the data recovered using the SPSS statistics software and, afterwards, presenting the main results. Finally, starting from the main conclusions achieved, we willgive clues to an ongoing reflection.

Riders in the storm: the professions and healthcare governance

The public sector is facing turbulent times and this also challenges the health professions who are expected to serve both the interests of the citizens and the cost-containment and austerity policies of governments. This article seeks to explore the changing role of the health professions. I introduce an approach on ‘citizen professionals’ as active players in the policy process and mediators between the state/policymakers and the citizens/patients. The aim is to highlight a transformative potential of professionalism and the connectedness with other sets of governance, like management. Empirical material from a German case study and a comparative European study serve to illustrate the arguments, drawing on policy analysis and secondary sources. The results bring the complexity of transformations and new emergent forms of professionalism into view that cannot be understood in traditional categories of conflict, exclusion and jurisdiction. Exploring the potential of the health professions to creatively respond to new challenges may reveal new opportunities for innovating healthcare policy beyond market and management.

Gestão do risco em mercados de energia eléctrica recorrendo ao VaR por simulação de Monte Carlo

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia.

Missed opportunities for congenital syphilis and HIV perinatal transmission prevention

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of missed opportunities for congenital syphilis and HIV prevention in pregnant women who had access to prenatal care and to assess factors associated to non-testing of these infections. METHODS: Cross-sectional study comprising a randomly selected sample of 2,145 puerperal women who were admitted in maternity hospitals for delivery or curettage and had attended at least one prenatal care visit, in Brazil between 1999 and 2000. No syphilis and/or anti-HIV testing during pregnancy was a marker for missed prevention opportunity. Women who were not tested for either or both were compared to those who had at least one syphilis and one anti-HIV testing performed during pregnancy (reference category). The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity was estimated for each category with 95% confidence intervals. Factors independently associated with missed prevention opportunity were assessed through multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity for syphilis or anti-HIV was 41.2% and 56.0%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that race/skin color (non-white), schooling (<8 years), marital status (single), income (<3 monthly minimum wages), having sex during pregnancy, history of syphilis prior to the current pregnancy, number of prenatal care visits (<6), and last prenatal visit before the third trimester of gestation were associated with an increased risk of missed prevention opportunity. A negative association with missed prevention opportunity was found between marital status (single), prenatal care site (hospital) and first prenatal visit in the third trimester of gestation. CONCLUSIONS: High rates of non-tested women indicate failures in preventive and control actions for HIV infection and congenital syphilis. Pregnant women have been discontinuing prenatal care at an early stage and are failing to undergo prenatal screening for HIV and syphilis.

Computational analysis of quinoxalines N,N-Dioxide and ITS Derivates

A quinoxalina e seus derivativos são uma importante classe de compostos heterocíclicos, onde os elementos N, S e O substituem átomos de carbono no anel. A fórmula molecular da quinoxalina é C8H6N2, formada por dois anéis aromáticos, benzeno e pirazina. É rara em estado natural, mas a sua síntese é de fácil execução. Modificações na estrutura da quinoxalina proporcionam uma grande variedade de compostos e actividades, tais como actividades antimicrobiana, antiparasitária, antidiabética, antiproliferativa, anti-inflamatória, anticancerígena, antiglaucoma, antidepressiva apresentando antagonismo do receptor AMPA. Estes compostos também são importantes no campo industrial devido, por exemplo, ao seu poder na inibição da corrosão do metal. A química computacional, ramo natural da química teórica é um método bem desenvolvido, utilizado para representar estruturas moleculares, simulando o seu comportamento com as equações da física quântica e clássica. Existe no mercado uma grande variedade de ferramentas informaticas utilizadas na química computacional, que permitem o cálculo de energias, geometrias, frequências vibracionais, estados de transição, vias de reação, estados excitados e uma variedade de propriedades baseadas em várias funções de onda não correlacionadas e correlacionadas. Nesta medida, a sua aplicação ao estudo das quinoxalinas é importante para a determinação das suas características químicas, permitindo uma análise mais completa, em menos tempo, e com menos custos.

A Internacionalização do setor vinícola: o caso da Quinta da Aveleda

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização. Orientada pela Professora Doutora Maria Clara Dias Pinto Ribeiro

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Micro-generation Evaluation of the Zero Emissions Technologies in the Portuguese Market

Micro-generation is the small scale production of heat and/or electricity from a low carbon source and can be a powerful driver for carbon reduction, behavior change, security of supply and economic value. The energy conversion technologies can include photovoltaic panels, micro combined heat and power, micro wind, heat pumps, solar thermal systems, fuel cells and micro hydro schemes. In this paper, a small research of the availability of the conversion apparatus and the prices for the micro wind turbines and photovoltaic systems is made and a comparison between these two technologies is performed in terms of the availability of the resource and costs. An analysis of the new legal framework published in Portugal is done to realize if the incentives to individualspsila investment in sustainable and local energy production is worth for their point of view. An economic evaluation for these alternatives, accounting with the governmentpsilas incentives should lead, in most cases, into attractive return rates for the investment. Apart from the attractiveness of the investment there are though other aspects that should be taken into account and those are the benefits that these choices have to us all. The idea is that micro-generation will not only make a significant direct contribution to carbon reduction targets, it will also trigger a multiplier effect in behavior change by engaging hearts and minds, and providing more efficient use of energy by householders. The diversified profile of power generation by micro-generators, both in terms of location and timing, should reduce the impact of intermittency or plant failures with significant gains for security of supply.

Risk Analysis and Behavior of Electricity Portfolio Aggregator

The scope of this paper is to adapt the standard mean-variance model of Henry Markowitz theory, creating a simulation tool to find the optimal configuration of the portfolio aggregator, calculate its profitability and risk. Currently, there is a deep discussion going on among the power system society about the structure and architecture of the future electric system. In this environment, policy makers and electric utilities find new approaches to access the electricity market; this configures new challenging positions in order to find innovative strategies and methodologies. Decentralized power generation is gaining relevance in liberalized markets, and small and medium size electricity consumers are also become producers (“prosumers”). In this scenario an electric aggregator is an entity that joins a group of electric clients, customers, producers, “prosumers” together as a single purchasing unit to negotiate the purchase and sale of electricity. The aggregator conducts research on electricity prices, contract terms and conditions in order to promote better energy prices for their clients and allows small and medium customers to benefit improved market prices.

Power law analysis of financial index dynamics

Power law PL and fractional calculus are two faces of phenomena with long memory behavior. This paper applies PL description to analyze different periods of the business cycle. With such purpose the evolution of ten important stock market indices DAX, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Nikkei, NYSE, S&P500, SSEC, HSI, TWII, and BSE over time is studied. An evolutionary algorithm is used for the fitting of the PL parameters. It is observed that the PL curve fitting constitutes a good tool for revealing the signal main characteristics leading to the emergence of the global financial dynamic evolution.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

Desafios e potencialidades da metodologia SROI : um estudo de caso

Mestrado em Controlo e Gestão dos Negócios

A tighter analysis of the worst-case endto- end communication delay in massive multicores

"Many-core” systems based on the Network-on- Chip (NoC) architecture have brought into the fore-front various opportunities and challenges for the deployment of real-time systems. Such real-time systems need timing guarantees to be fulfilled. Therefore, calculating upper-bounds on the end-to-end communication delay between system components is of primary interest. In this work, we identify the limitations of an existing approach proposed by [1] and propose different techniques to overcome these limitations.