Construction Prices : the Market Effect

Teachers of construction economics and estimating have for a long time recognised that there is more to construction pricing than detailed calculation of costs (to the contractor). We always get to the point where we have to say "of course, experience or familiarity of the market is very important and this needs judgement, intuition, etc". Quite how important is the matter in construction pricing is not known and we tend to trivialise its effect. If judgement of the market has a minimal effect, little harm would be done, but if it is really important then some quite serious consequences arise which go well beyond the teaching environment. Major areas of concern for the quantity surveyor are in cost modelling and cost planning - neither of which pay any significant attention to the market effect. There are currently two schools of thought about the market effect issue. The first school is prepared to ignore possible effects until more is known. This may be called the pragmatic school. The second school exists solely to criticise the first school. We will call this the antagonistic school. Neither the pragmatic nor the antagonistic schools seem to be particularly keen to resolve the issue one way or the other. The founder and leader of the antagonistic school is Brian Fine whose paper in 1974 is still the basic text on the subject, and in which he coined the term 'socially acceptable' price to describe what we now recognise as the market effect. Mr Fine's argument was then, and is since, that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' costing and cost estimating process is such that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' cost that it logically leads to a market-orientated pricing approach. Very little factual evidence, however, seems to be available to support these arguments in any conclusive manner. A further, and more important point for the pragmatic school, is that, even if the market effect is as important as Mr Fine believes, there are no indications of how it can be measured, evaluated or predicted. Since 1974 evidence has been accumulating which tends to reinforce the antagonists' view. A review of the literature covering both contractors' and designers' estimates found many references to the use of value judgements in construction pricing (Ashworth & Skitmore, 1985), which supports the antagonistic view in implying the existence of uncertainty overload. The most convincing evidence emerged quite by accident in some research we recently completed with practicing quantity surveyors in estimating accuracy (Skitmore, 1985). In addition to demonstrating that individual quantity surveyors and certain types of buildings had significant effect on estimating accuracy, one surprise result was that only a very small amount of information was used by the most expert surveyors for relatively very accurate estimates. Only the type and size of building, it seemed, was really relevant in determining accuracy. More detailed information about the buildings' specification, and even a sight to the drawings, did not significantly improve their accuracy level. This seemed to offer clear evidence that the constructional aspects of the project were largely irrelevant and that the expert surveyors were somehow tuning in to the market price of the building. The obvious next step is to feed our expert surveyors with more relevant 'market' information in order to assess its effect. The problem with this is that our experts do not seem able to verbalise their requirements in this respect - a common occurrence in research of this nature. The lack of research into the nature of market effects on prices also means the literature provides little of benefit. Hence the need for this study. It was felt that a clearer picture of the nature of construction markets would be obtained in an environment where free enterprise was a truly ideological force. For this reason, the United States of America was chosen for the next stage of our investigations. Several people were interviewed in an informal and unstructured manner to elicit their views on the action of market forces on construction prices. Although a small number of people were involved, they were thought to be reasonably representative of knowledge in construction pricing. They were also very well able to articulate their views. Our initial reaction to the interviews was that our USA subjects held very close views to those held in the UK. However, detailed analysis revealed the existence of remarkably clear and consistent insights that would not have been obtained in the UK. Further evidence was also obtained from literature relating to the subject and some of the interviewees very kindly expanded on their views in later postal correspondence. We have now analysed all the evidence received and, although a great deal is of an anecdotal nature, we feel that our findings enable at least the basic nature of the subject to be understood and that the factors and their interrelationships can now be examined more formally in relation to construction price levels. I must express my gratitude to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' Educational Trust and the University of Salford's Department of Civil Engineering for collectively funding this study. My sincere thanks also go to our American participants who freely gave their time and valuable knowledge to us in our enquiries. Finally, I must record my thanks to Tim and Anne for their remarkable ability to produce an intelligible typescript from my unintelligible writing.

The momentum effect in competitions : field evidence from tennis matches

It is often suggested that there is a psychological advantage to be leading in a competition. It is, however, hard to identify such an effect econometrically. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design over a large dataset of tennis matches (N=634,095) the present paper exploits the randomised variation in first set results that occurs when the first set is decided by a close tie break (N=72,294). I find that winning the first set has a significant and strong effect on the result of the second set. A player who wins a close first set tie break will, on average, win one game more in the second set. I discuss the likely economic and psychological explanations of this phenomenon.

Working for a better life : longitudinal evidence on the predictors of employment among recently arrived refugee migrant men living in Australia

Although a number of studies have investigated the predictors of employment among refugee migrants, there is a dearth of evidence from longitudinal data. This study investigated the cross-sectional and longitudinal predictors of employment among 233 adult refugee men living in South-East Queensland, Australia. Participants were interviewed four times at six-month intervals between 2008 and 2010. Using a conceptual model developed from the literature, Generalised Estimating Equations were used to model the predictors of employment. Over time, the employment rate increased from 44 percent to 56 percent. Region of birth, length of time in Australia, seeking employment through job service providers and informal networks, and owning a car were significant predictors of employment. Contrary to previous research, English language proficiency was not a significant predictor when other variables were controlled for. Recognition of overseas skills and qualifications decreased the chances of finding employment. The policy and program implications are discussed.

Knowledge management practices in construction : Evidence from Hong Kong

The acquisition and management of knowledge is the dominant source of organisational com-petitive advantage. As innovation processes in the management and procurement of construc-tion activities are becoming increasingly interactive, knowledge management (KM) has been widely recognised by construction organisations as an essential tool to be employed when dealing with growing complexity and cost of projects as well as increasing client demands. KM requires deliberate efforts by an organisation to maximise its performance through the acquisition, dissemination and leveraging of the organisation’s intellectual assets. The Hong Kong (HK) construction market has been described as one of the most open and globally competitive. This paper reports on KM practices within the HK construction industry, and through the analysis of a self-administered questionnaire survey, reveals managers’ opinions of the formal and informal KM practices that could be used to manage the flow of knowledge, and identifies the level of implementation within their organisations. The differences between managers’ perception and the actual state of implementation – as reported by the same man-agers – are statistically examined. The analysis leads to better understanding of how HK con-struction professionals currently manage organisational knowledge, and what areas for poten-tial improvement exist.

Imputation of female labour market experience : some Australian evidence on the Zabalza and Arrufat method

Recent empirical studies of gender discrimination point to the importance of accurately controlling for accumulated labour market experience. Unfortunately in Australia, most data sets do not include information on actual experience. The current paper using data from the National Social Science Survey 1984, examines the efficacy of imputing female labour market experience via the Zabalza and Arrufat (1985) method. The results suggest that the method provides a more accurate measure of experience than that provided by the traditional Mincer proxy. However, the imputation method is sensitive to the choice of identification restrictions. We suggest a novel alternative to a choice between arbitrary restrictions.

Trends in the Australian gender wage differential over the 1980s : some evidence on the effectiveness of legislative reform

The article examines the legislative reforms incorporating the Sex Discrimination Act and the Affirmative Action Act introduced during the 1980s. We utilise the Australian Bureau of Statistics Income Distribution Surveys 1981–82 and 1989–90 to reflect pre- and post-legislative reform. The article adopts the Brown, Moon and Zoloth (1980) methodology which treats both the wage and occupational status of the individual as endogenously determined. In the current context this is a particularly flexible framework allowing one to capture both the direct and indirect effects of the legislative reforms. The indirect effect refers to the narrowing of the gender wage gap associated with legislative manipulation of the male-female occupational distributions. The results contrast the slow convergence in the gender wage gap during the 1980s with the much faster pace of the 1970s. The article concludes that despite the focus of the 1980s legislation on employment equity, changes in the male-female occupational distribution over the period are small and the associated impact on gender wage convergence is also small.

Hepatitis C and policy implementation : ethics as a dialogic process for resource allocation

Hepatitis C, which was first identified in 1988, has become an important issue for public health as epidemiological and clinical evidence has emerged. These disciplines have highlighted the extent of infection and its medical consequences. Now, governments at both the state and federal levels are sifting through this evidence and are attempting to create structures to deal with the problem of hepatitis C. These structures have generally taken the form of expert committees and working parties organised from established medical, scientific and public health bodies...

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality : epidemiological evidence from China

Objective: To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. Design: A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. Patients: 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004–2008. Results: The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Conclusions: Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate–IHD mortality relationships.

Evidence based healthcare planning in developing countries : an informatics perspective

Most of the national Health Information Systems (HIS) in resource limited developing countries do not serve the purpose of management support and thus the service is adversely affected. While emphasising the importance of timely and accurate health information in decision making in healthcare planning, this paper explains that Health Management Information System Failure is commonly seen in developing countries as well as the developed countries. It is suggested that the possibility of applying principles of Health Informatics and the technology of Decision Support Systems should be seriously considered to improve the situation. A brief scientific explanation of the evolution of these two disciplines is included.

New and young firms Entrepreneurship policy and the role of government – evidence from the Federation of Small Businesses survey

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether new and young firms are different from older firms. This analysis is undertaken to explore general characteristics, use of external resources and growth orientation. Design/methodology/approach – Data from the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses survey provided 8,000 responses. Quantitative analysis identified significantly different characteristics of firms from 0-4, 4-9, 9-19 and 20+ years. Factor analysis was utilised to identify the advice sets, finance and public procurement customers of greatest interest, with ANOVA used to statistically compare firms in the identified age groups with different growth aspirations. Findings – The findings reveal key differences between new, young and older firms in terms of characteristics including business sector, owner/manager age, education/business experience, legal status, intellectual property and trading performance. New and young firms were more able to access beneficial resources in terms of finance and advice from several sources. New and young firms were also able to more easily access government and external finance, as well as government advice, but less able to access public procurement. Research limitations/implications – New and young firms are utilising external networks to access several resources for development purposes, and this differs for older firms. This suggests that a more explicit age-differentiated focus is required for government policies aimed at supporting firm growth. Originality/value – The study provides important baseline data for future quantitative and qualitative studies focused on the impact of firm age and government policy.

An overview of level I evidence for the management of radiation dermatitis literature

Background: Despite the technologic advances, radiation dermatitis is still a prevalent and distressing symptom in patients with cancer undergoing radiotherapy. Systematic reviews (SRs) are regarded as level I evidence providing direction for clinical practice and guidelines. This overview aims to provide a critical appraisal of SRs published on interventions for the prevention/management of radiation dermatitis. Methodology: We searched the following electronic databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (up to Feb 2012). We also hand-searched reference lists of potentially eligible articles and a number of key journals in the area. Two authors screened all potential articles and included eligible SRs. Two authors critically appraised and extracted key findings from the included reviews using the “A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews” (AMSTAR). Results: Of 1837 potential titles, six SRs were included. A number of interventions have been reported to be potentially beneficial for managing radiation dermatitis. Interventions evaluated in these reviews included skin care advice, steroidal/non-steroidal topical agents, systematic therapies, modes of radiation delivery, and dressings. However, all the included SRs reported that there is insufficient evidence supporting any single effective intervention. The methodological quality of the included studies varied, and methodological shortfalls in these reviews may create biases to the overall results or recommendations for clinical practice. Conclusions and implications: An up-to-date high quality SR in preventing/managing radiation dermatitis is needed to guide practice and direction for future research. Clinicians or guideline developers are recommended to critically evaluate the information of SRs in their decision making.

No evidence for change in oviposition behaviour of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) after widespread adoption of transgenic insecticidal cotton

Cotton growing landscapes in Australia have been dominated by dual-toxin transgenic Bt varieties since 2004. The cotton crop has thus effectively become a sink for the main target pest, Helicoverpa armigera. Theory predicts that there should be strong selection on female moths to avoid laying on such plants. We assessed oviposition, collected from two cotton-growing regions, by female moths when given a choice of tobacco, cotton and cabbage. Earlier work in the 1980s and 1990s on populations from the same geographic locations indicated these hosts were on average ranked as high, mid and low preference plants, respectively, and that host rankings had a heritable component. In the present study, we found no change in the relative ranking of hosts by females, with most eggs being laid on tobacco, then cotton and least on cabbage. As in earlier work, some females laid most eggs on cotton and aspects of oviposition behaviour had a heritable component. Certainly, cotton is not avoided as a host, and the implications of these finding for managing resistance to Bt cotton are discussed.

Quality Assessment Matrix : A Collaborative Evaluation Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

Welcome to the Quality assessment matrix. This matrix is designed for highly qualified discipline experts to evaluate their course, major or unit in a systematic manner. The primary purpose of the Quality assessment matrix is to provide a tool that a group of academic staff at universities can collaboratively review the assessment within a course, major or unit annually. The annual review will result in you being read for an external curricula review at any point in time. This tool is designed for use in a workshop format with one, two or more academic staff, and will lead to an action plan for implementation.

Ownership, corporate governance and timeliness of price discovery : Australian evidence

This study investigates whether and how a firm’s ownership and corporate governance affect its timeliness of price discovery, which is referred to as the speed of incorporation of value-relevant information into the stock price. Using a panel data of 1,138 Australian firm-year observations from 2001 to 2008, we predict and find a non-linear relationship between ownership concentration and the timeliness of price discovery. We test the identity of the largest shareholder and find that only firms with family as the largest shareholder exhibit faster price discovery. There is no evidence that suggests that the presence of a second largest shareholder affects the timeliness of price discovery materially. Although we find a positive association between corporate governance quality and the timeliness of price discovery, as expected, there is no interaction effect between the largest shareholding and corporate governance in relation to the timeliness of price discovery. Further tests show no evidence of severe endogeneity problems in our study.