777 resultados para Volatility of volatility
Resumo:
The aim of the first part of this thesis was to evaluate the effect of trans fatty acid- (TFA), contaminant, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)- and oxidation productenriched diets on the content of TFA and conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) isomers in meat and liver of both poultry and rabbit. The enriched feedings were prepared with preselected fatty co-and by-products that contained low and high levels of TFA (low, palm fatty acid distillate; high, hydrogenated palm fatty acid distillate), environmental contaminants (dioxins and PCBs) (two different fish oils), PAH (olive oil acid oils and pomace olive oil from chemical refining, for low and high levels) and oxidation products (sunflower-olive oil blend before and after frying), so as to obtain single feedings with three enrichment degrees (high, medium and low) of the compound of interest. This experimental set-up is a part of a large, collaborative European project (http://www.ub.edu/feedfat/), where other chemical and health parameters are assessed. Lipids were extracted, methylated with diazomethane, then transmethylated with 2N KOH/methanol and analyzed by GC and silver-ion TLC-GC. TFA and CLA were determined in the fats, the feedings, meat and liver of both poultry and rabbit. In general, the level of TFA and CLA in meat and liver mainly varied according to those originally found in the feeding fats. It must be pointed out, though, that TFA and CLA accumulation was different for the two animal species, as well as for the two types of tissues. The TFA composition of meat and liver changes according to the composition of the oils added to the feeds with some differences between species. Chicken meat with skin shows higher TFA content (2.6–5.4 fold) than rabbit meat, except for the “PAH” trial. Chicken liver shows higher TFA content (1.2–2.1 fold) than rabbit liver, except for the “TRANS” and “PAH” trials. In both chicken and rabbit meats, the TFA content was higher for the “TRANS” trial, followed by the “DIOXIN” trial. Slight differences were found on the “OXIDATION” and “PAH” trends in both types of meats. In both chicken and rabbit livers, the TFA content was higher for the “TRANS” trial, followed by those of the “PAH”, “DIOXIN” and “OXIDATION” trials. This trend, however, was not identical to that of feeds, where the TFA content varied as follows: “TRANS” > “DIOXIN” >“PAH” > “OXIDATION”. In chicken and rabbit meat samples, C18:1 TFA were the most abundant, followed by C18:2 TFA and C18:3 TFA, except for the “DIOXIN” trial where C18:3 TFA > C18:2 TFA. In chicken and rabbit liver samples of the “TRANS” and “OXIDATION” trials, C18:1 TFA were the most abundant, followed by C18:2 TFA and C18:3 TFA, whereas C18:3 TFA > C18:2 in the “DIOXIN” trial. Slight differences were found on the “PAH” trend in livers from both species. The second part of the thesis dealt with the study of lipid oxidation in washed turkey muscle added with different antioxidants. The evaluation on the oxidative stability of muscle foods found that oxidation could be measured by headspace solid phase microestraction (SPME) of hexanal and propanal. To make this method effective, an antioxidant system was added to stored muscle to stop the oxidative processes. An increase in ionic strength of the sample was also implemented to increase the concentration of aldehydes in the headspace. This method was found to be more sensitive than the commonly used thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARs) method. However, after antioxidants were added and oxidation was stopped, the concentration of aldehydes decreased. It was found that the decrease in aldehyde concentration was due to the binding of the aldehydes to muscle proteins, thus decreasing the volatility and making them less detectable.
Resumo:
In this thesis the impact of R&D expenditures on firm market value and stock returns is examined. This is performed in a sample of European listed firms for the period 2000-2009. I apply different linear and GMM econometric estimations for testing the impact of R&D on market prices and construct country portfolios based on firms’ R&D expenditure to market capitalization ratio for studying the effect of R&D on stock returns. The results confirm that more innovative firms have a better market valuation,investors consider R&D as an asset that produces long-term benefits for corporations. The impact of R&D on firm value differs across countries. It is significantly modulated by the financial and legal environment where firms operate. Other firm and industry characteristics seem to play a determinant role when investors value R&D. First, only larger firms with lower financial leverage that operate in highly innovative sectors decide to disclose their R&D investment. Second, the markets assign a premium to small firms, which operate in hi-tech sectors compared to larger enterprises for low-tech industries. On the other hand, I provide empirical evidence indicating that generally highly R&D-intensive firms may enhance mispricing problems related to firm valuation. As R&D contributes to the estimation of future stock returns, portfolios that comprise high R&D-intensive stocks may earn significant excess returns compared to the less innovative after controlling for size and book-to-market risk. Further, the most innovative firms are generally more risky in terms of stock volatility but not systematically more risky than low-tech firms. Firms that operate in Continental Europe suffer more mispricing compared to Anglo-Saxon peers but the former are less volatile, other things being equal. The sectors where firms operate are determinant even for the impact of R&D on stock returns; this effect is much stronger in hi-tech industries.
Resumo:
In this work we studied the efficiency of the benchmarks used in the asset management industry. In chapter 2 we analyzed the efficiency of the benchmark used for the government bond markets. We found that for the Emerging Market Bonds an equally weighted index for the country weights is probably the more suited because guarantees maximum diversification of country risk but for the Eurozone government bond market we found a GDP weighted index is better because the most important matter is to avoid a higher weight for highly indebted countries. In chapter 3 we analyzed the efficiency of a Derivatives Index to invest in the European corporate bond market instead of a Cash Index. We can state that the two indexes are similar in terms of returns, but that the Derivatives Index is less risky because it has a lower volatility, has values of skewness and kurtosis closer to those of a normal distribution and is a more liquid instrument, as the autocorrelation is not significant. In chapter 4 it is analyzed the impact of fallen angels on the corporate bond portfolios. Our analysis investigated the impact of the month-end rebalancing of the ML Emu Non Financial Corporate Index for the exit of downgraded bond (the event). We can conclude a flexible approach to the month-end rebalancing is better in order to avoid a loss of valued due to the benchmark construction rules. In chapter 5 we did a comparison between the equally weighted and capitalization weighted method for the European equity market. The benefit which results from reweighting the portfolio into equal weights can be attributed to the fact that EW portfolios implicitly follow a contrarian investment strategy, because they mechanically rebalance away from stocks that increase in price.
Resumo:
The quest for universal memory is driving the rapid development of memories with superior all-round capabilities in non-volatility, high speed, high endurance and low power. The memory subsystem accounts for a significant cost and power budget of a computer system. Current DRAM-based main memory systems are starting to hit the power and cost limit. To resolve this issue the industry is improving existing technologies such as Flash and exploring new ones. Among those new technologies is the Phase Change Memory (PCM), which overcomes some of the shortcomings of the Flash such as durability and scalability. This alternative non-volatile memory technology, which uses resistance contrast in phase-change materials, offers more density relative to DRAM, and can help to increase main memory capacity of future systems while remaining within the cost and power constraints. Chalcogenide materials can suitably be exploited for manufacturing phase-change memory devices. Charge transport in amorphous chalcogenide-GST used for memory devices is modeled using two contributions: hopping of trapped electrons and motion of band electrons in extended states. Crystalline GST exhibits an almost Ohmic I(V) curve. In contrast amorphous GST shows a high resistance at low biases while, above a threshold voltage, a transition takes place from a highly resistive to a conductive state, characterized by a negative differential-resistance behavior. A clear and complete understanding of the threshold behavior of the amorphous phase is fundamental for exploiting such materials in the fabrication of innovative nonvolatile memories. The type of feedback that produces the snapback phenomenon is described as a filamentation in energy that is controlled by electron–electron interactions between trapped electrons and band electrons. The model thus derived is implemented within a state-of-the-art simulator. An analytical version of the model is also derived and is useful for discussing the snapback behavior and the scaling properties of the device.
Resumo:
In the large maturity limit, we compute explicitly the Local Volatility surface for Heston, through Dupire’s formula, with Fourier pricing of the respective derivatives of the call price. Than we verify that the prices of European call options produced by the Heston model, concide with those given by the local volatility model where the Local Volatility is computed as said above.
Resumo:
The composition of the atmosphere is frequently perturbed by the emission of gaseous and particulate matter from natural as well as anthropogenic sources. While the impact of trace gases on the radiative forcing of the climate is relatively well understood the role of aerosol is far more uncertain. Therefore, the study of the vertical distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere and its chemical composition contribute valuable information to bridge this gap of knowledge. The chemical composition of aerosol reveals information on properties such as radiative behavior and hygroscopicity and therefore cloud condensation or ice nucleus potential. rnThis thesis focuses on aerosol pollution plumes observed in 2008 during the POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport) campaign over Greenland in June/July and CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) campaign over Central and Western Europe in October/November. Measurements were performed with an Aerodyne compact time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) capable of online size-resolved chemical characterization of non-refractory submicron particles. In addition, the origins of pollution plumes were determined by means of modeling tools. The characterized pollution episodes originated from a large variety of sources and were encountered at distinct altitudes. They included pure natural emissions from two volcanic eruptions in 2008. By the time of detection over Western Europe between 10 and 12 km altitude the plume was about 3 months old and composed to 71 % of particulate sulfate and 21 % of carbonaceous compounds. Also, biomass burning (BB) plumes were observed over Greenland between 4 and 7 km altitude (free troposphere) originating from Canada and East Siberia. The long-range transport took roughly one and two weeks, respectively. The aerosol was composed of 78 % organic matter and 22 % particulate sulfate. Some Canadian and all Siberian BB plumes were mixed with anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (FF) in North America and East Asia. It was found that the contribution of particulate sulfate increased with growing influences from anthropogenic activity and Asia reaching up to 37 % after more than two weeks of transport time. The most exclusively anthropogenic emission source probed in the upper troposphere was engine exhaust from commercial aircraft liners over Germany. However, in-situ characterization of this aerosol type during aircraft chasing was not possible. All long-range transport aerosol was found to have an O:C ratio close to or greater than 1 implying that low-volatility oxygenated organic aerosol was present in each case despite the variety of origins and the large range in age from 3 to 100 days. This leads to the conclusion that organic particulate matter reaches a final and uniform state of oxygenation after at least 3 days in the free troposphere. rnExcept for aircraft exhaust all emission sources mentioned above are surface-bound and thus rely on different types of vertical transport mechanisms, such as direct high altitude injection in the case of a volcanic eruption, or severe BB, or uplift by convection, to reach higher altitudes where particles can travel long distances before removal mainly caused by cloud scavenging. A lifetime for North American mixed BB and FF aerosol of 7 to 11 days was derived. This in consequence means that emission from surface point sources, e.g. volcanoes, or regions, e.g. East Asia, do not only have a relevant impact on the immediate surroundings but rather on a hemispheric scale including such climate sensitive zones as the tropopause or the Arctic.
Resumo:
In the present thesis I study the contribution to firm value of inventories management from a risk management perspective. I find a significant contribution of inventories to the value of risk management especially through the operating flexibility channel. In contrast, I do not find evidence supporting the view of inventories a reserve of liquidity. Inventories substitute, albeit not perfectly, derivatives or cash holdings. The substitution between hedging with derivatives and inventory is moderated by the correlation between cash flow and the underlying asset in the derivative contract. Hedge ratios increase with the effectiveness of derivatives. The decision to hedge with cash holdings or inventories is strongly influenced by the degree of complementarity between production factors and by cash flow volatility. In addition, I provide a risk management based explanation of the secular substitution between inventories and cash holdings documented, among others, in Bates et al. (2009), Journal of Finance. In a sample of U.S. firms between 1980 and 2006, I empirically confirm the negative relation between inventories and cash and provide evidence on the poor performance of investment cash flow sensitivities as a measure of financial constraints also in the case of inventories investment. This result can be explained by firms' scarce reliance on inventories as a reserve of liquidity. Finally, as an extension of my study, I contrast with empirical data the theoretical predictions of a model on the integrated management of inventories, trade credit and cash holdings.
Resumo:
Questa tesi verte sullo studio di un modello a volatilità stocastica e locale, utilizzato per valutare opzioni esotiche nei mercati dei cambio. La difficoltà nell'implementare un modello di tal tipo risiede nella calibrazione della leverage surface e uno degli scopi principali di questo lavoro è quello di mostrarne la procedura.
Resumo:
Cigarettes may contain up to 10% by weight additives which are intended to make them more attractive. A fast and rugged method for a cigarette-screening for additives with medium volatility was developed using automatic headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) with a 65 microm carbowax-divinylbenzene fiber and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) with standard electron impact ionisation. In three runs, each cigarette sample was extracted in closed headspace vials using basic, acidic and neutral medium containing 0.5 g NaCl or Na2SO4. Furthermore, the method was optimized for quantitative determination of 17 frequently occurring additives. The practical applicability of the method was demonstrated for cigarettes from 32 brands.
Resumo:
Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.
Resumo:
Phenomena related to the volatilization of polonium and its compounds are critical issues for the safety assessment of the innovative lead–bismuth cooled type of nuclear reactor or accelerator driven systems. The formation and volatilization of different species of polonium and their interaction with fused silica was studied by thermochromatography using carrier gases with varied redox potential. The obtained results show that under inert and reducing conditions in the absence of moisture, elemental polonium is formed. Polonium compounds more volatile than elemental polonium can be formed if traces of moisture are present in both inert and reducing carrier gas. The use of dried oxygen as carrier gas leads to the formation of polonium oxides, which are less volatile than elemental polonium. It was also found that the volatility of polonium oxides increases with increasing oxidation state. In the presence of moisture in an oxidizing carrier gas, species are formed that are more volatile than the oxides and less volatile than the elemental polonium. Considering the redox potential of the carrier gas those species are likely oxyhydroxides.
Resumo:
Cadmium is a highly volatile element and its abundance in meteorites may help better understand volatility-controlled processes in the solar nebula and on meteorite parent bodies. The large thermal neutron capture cross section of 113Cd suggests that Cd isotopes might be well suited to quantify neutron fluences in extraterrestrial materials. The aims of this study were (1) to evaluate the range and magnitude of Cd concentrations in magmatic iron meteorites, and (2) to assess the potential of Cd isotopes as a neutron dosimeter for iron meteorites. Our new Cd concentration data determined by isotope dilution demonstrate that Cd concentrations in iron meteorites are significantly lower than in some previous studies. In contrast to large systematic variations in the concentration of moderately volatile elements like Ga and Ge, there is neither systematic variation in Cd concentration amongst troilites, nor amongst metal phases of different iron meteorite groups. Instead, Cd is strongly depleted in all iron meteorite groups, implying that the parent bodies accreted well above the condensation temperature of Cd (i.e., ≈650 K) and thus incorporated only minimal amounts of highly volatile elements. No Cd isotope anomalies were found, whereas Pt and W isotope anomalies for the same iron meteorite samples indicate a significant fluence of epithermal and higher energetic neutrons. This observation demonstrates that owing to the high Fe concentrations in iron meteorites, neutron capture mainly occurs at epithermal and higher energies. The combined Cd-Pt-W isotope results from this study thus demonstrate that the relative magnitude of neutron capture-induced isotope anomalies is strongly affected by the chemical composition of the irradiated material. The resulting low fluence of thermal neutrons in iron meteorites and their very low Cd concentrations make Cd isotopes unsuitable as a neutron dosimeter for iron meteorites.
Resumo:
Introduction. – Attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection are two separate but correlated attitudes. Little is known about the two attitudes’ stability/volatility over time, despite the practical value of such knowledge. Objectives & method. – Using longitudinal survey data from 251 adults in a cross-lagged structural equation model, we assessed the degree of spontaneous (i.e., unprompted) change in the two attitudes. We also considered whether such change could provide evidence regarding causal direction; causation could go in either of two directions between the two attitudes, or it could even be bi-directional. Results. – We corroborated the substantive connection between attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection; however, the absence of change in the attitudes despite the passage of two years disallows reliable statements about causal direction. Conclusion. – It is possible to protect the environment by encouraging appreciation of nature, but change in attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection may be difficult to achieve with mature individuals.
Resumo:
Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.
Resumo:
More than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the electoral volatility in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is still remarkably high. A considerable part of the volatility derives from the votes for new political parties, since they are very often on the winning side of elections. This paper examines corruption as potential determinant of their electoral success. It argues that the effect of corruption is twofold: On the onehand, the historically-grown corruption level reduces the electoral success of new political parties due to strong clientelist structures that bind the electorate to the established parties. On the other hand, an increase of the perceived corruption above the traditional corruption level leads to a loss of trust in the political elite and therefore boosts the electoral success of new competitors. A statistical analysis of all democratic elections in CEE between 1996 and 2011 confirms these two counteracting effects.