Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Aplicação do Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) na demolição, movimento de terras e execução da estrutura em edifícios

Mestrado em Engenharia Civil - Ramo Tecnologia e gestão das Construções

Cyclosporine versus tacrolimus: cost-effectiveness analysis for renal transplantation in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the cost-effectiveness of treatment regimens with cyclosporine or tacrolimus, five years after renal transplantation.METHODS This cost-effectiveness analysis was based on historical cohort data obtained between 2000 and 2004 and involved 2,022 patients treated with cyclosporine or tacrolimus, matched 1:1 for gender, age, and type and year of transplantation. Graft survival and the direct costs of medical care obtained from the National Health System (SUS) databases were used as outcome results.RESULTS Most of the patients were women, with a mean age of 36.6 years. The most frequent diagnosis of chronic renal failure was glomerulonephritis/nephritis (27.7%). In five years, the tacrolimus group had an average life expectancy gain of 3.96 years at an annual cost of R$78,360.57 compared with the cyclosporine group with a gain of 4.05 years and an annual cost of R$61,350.44.CONCLUSIONS After matching, the study indicated better survival of patients treated with regimens using tacrolimus. However, regimens containing cyclosporine were more cost-effective.

Analysis of the domain of applicability of an algorithm for a resources system selection problem for Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises integration

The process of resources systems selection takes an important part in Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises (D/A/V Es) integration. However, the resources systems selection is still a difficult matter to solve in a D/A/VE, as it is pointed out in this paper. Globally, we can say that the selection problem has been equated from different aspects, originating different kinds of models/algorithms to solve it. In order to assist the development of a web prototype tool (broker tool), intelligent and flexible, that integrates all the selection model activities and tools, and with the capacity to adequate to each D/A/V E project or instance (this is the major goal of our final project), we intend in this paper to show: a formulation of a kind of resources selection problem and the limitations of the algorithms proposed to solve it. We formulate a particular case of the problem as an integer programming, which is solved using simplex and branch and bound algorithms, and identify their performance limitations (in terms of processing time) based on simulation results. These limitations depend on the number of processing tasks and on the number of pre-selected resources per processing tasks, defining the domain of applicability of the algorithms for the problem studied. The limitations detected open the necessity of the application of other kind of algorithms (approximate solution algorithms) outside the domain of applicability founded for the algorithms simulated. However, for a broker tool it is very important the knowledge of algorithms limitations, in order to, based on problem features, develop and select the most suitable algorithm that guarantees a good performance.

Realization of fractional-order controllers: analysis, synthesis and application to the velocity control of a servo system

The synthesis and application of fractional-order controllers is now an active research field. This article investigates the use of fractional-order PID controllers in the velocity control of an experimental modular servo system. The systern consists of a digital servomechanism and open-architecture software environment for real-time control experiments using MATLAB/Simulink. Different tuning methods will be employed, such as heuristics based on the well-known Ziegler Nichols rules, techniques based on Bode’s ideal transfer function and optimization tuning methods. Experimental responses obtained from the application of the several fractional-order controllers are presented and analyzed. The effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithms are also compared with classical integer-order PID controllers.

Fire safety barrier availability analysis

This paper shows several ways to analyse the performance of a safety barrier, depending on the objective to be achieved and present a method to analyse binary components usually present on sensor systems of safety barriers. An application example of a water-based fire system is presented and the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD) of the sensor system is determined based on the analysis of pressure switches installed in this safety barrier. The knowledge of such information will allow the determination of safety barrier’s availability.

Infective endocarditis (IE) first diagnosed at autopsy: analysis of 31 cases in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil

Thirty one infective endocarditis (IE) fatal cases whose diagnosis was first obtained at autopsy were studied. The clinical data of these patients (Group 1) showed significant differences compared to other 141 IE cases (Group 2). The average age of 53 years in Group 1 patients was 18 years higher than that of Group 2. The Group 1 patients had a low frequency of IE predisposing heart disease. Both patient groups presented fever (about 87%), but a significant low frequency of cardiac murmur (25.8%) was observed in Group 1 patients and echocardiography tests were performed in only 16.1%, suggesting that IE diagnosis was not suspected. Likewise, although most Group 1 patients appeared with severe acute illness, they did not present the classic IE clinical presentation. Blood cultures were performed in only 64.5% of the Group 1 patients. However, bacteria were isolated in 70% of these blood cultures and Staphylococcus aureus was isolated in 71.4%. The bacteria attacked mitral and aortic valves. Complications such as embolizations and cardiac failure occurred in almost half of the cases and they also presented with infections of the lungs, urinary tract, and central nervous system. Medical procedures were performed in practically all fatal cases whose diagnosis was first obtained at autopsy. Sepsis occurred in about half of the patients and it was followed by shock in more than 25%. This form of IE must be suspected in mature and in old febrile hospitalized patients having infection predisposing diseases, embolization, and suffering medical procedures.

Rapid automated method for on-site determination of sulfadiazine in fish farming: a stainless steel veterinary syringe coated with a selective membrane of PVC serving as a potentiometric detector in a flow-injection-analysis system

Sulfadiazine is an antibiotic of the sulfonamide group and is used as a veterinary drug in fish farming. Monitoring it in the tanks is fundamental to control the applied doses and avoid environmental dissemination. Pursuing this goal, we included a novel potentiometric design in a flow-injection assembly. The electrode body was a stainless steel needle veterinary syringe of 0.8-mm inner diameter. A selective membrane of PVC acted as a sensory surface. Its composition, the length of the electrode, and other flow variables were optimized. The best performance was obtained for sensors of 1.5-cm length and a membrane composition of 33% PVC, 66% onitrophenyloctyl ether, 1% ion exchanger, and a small amount of a cationic additive. It exhibited Nernstian slopes of 61.0 mV decade-1 down to 1.0×10-5 mol L-1, with a limit of detection of 3.1×10-6 mol L-1 in flowing media. All necessary pH/ionic strength adjustments were performed online by merging the sample plug with a buffer carrier of 4-(2-hydroxyethyl)-1-piperazineethanesulfonic acid, pH 4.9. The sensor exhibited the advantages of a fast response time (less than 15 s), long operational lifetime (60 days), and good selectivity for chloride, nitrite, acetate, tartrate, citrate, and ascorbate. The flow setup was successfully applied to the analysis of aquaculture waters. The analytical results were validated against those obtained with liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry procedures. The sampling rate was about 84 samples per hour and recoveries ranged from 95.9 to 106.9%.

Towards realistic core-failure-resilient scheduling and analysis

Presented at IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS 2015). 1 to 4, Dec, 2015. San Antonio, U.S.A..

Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering

Reliability analysis of a timber truss system subjected to decay

Assessing the safety of existing timber structures is of paramount importance for taking reliable decisions on repair actions and their extent. The results obtained through semi-probabilistic methods are unrealistic, as the partial safety factors present in codes are calibrated considering the uncertainty present in new structures. In order to overcome these limitations, and also to include the effects of decay in the safety analysis, probabilistic methods, based on Monte-Carlo simulation are applied here to assess the safety of existing timber structures. In particular, the impact of decay on structural safety is analyzed and discussed, using a simple structural model, similar to that used for current semi-probabilistic analysis.

Obama's law : analysis of a breakthrough law on healthcare access and lessons for the Portuguese health system management

ABSTRACT - The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act shook the foundations of the US health system, offering all Americans access to health care by changing the way the health insurance industry works. As President Obama signed the Act on 23 March 2010, he said that it stood for “the core principle that everybody should have some basic security when it comes to their health care”. Unlike the U.S., the Article 64 of the Portuguese Constitution provides, since 1976, the right to universal access to health care. However, facing a severe economic crisis, Portugal has, under the supervision of the Troika, a tight schedule to implement measures to improve the efficiency of the National Health Service. Both countries are therefore despite their different situation, in a conjuncture of reform and the use of new health management measures. The present work, using a qualitative research methodology examines the Affordable Care Act in order to describe its principles and enforcement mechanisms. In order to describe the reality in Portugal, the Portuguese health system and the measures imposed by Troika are also analyzed. The intention of this entire analysis is not only to disclose the innovative U.S. law, but to find some innovative measures that could serve health management in Portugal. Essentially we identified the Exchanges and Wellness Programs, described throughout this work, leaving also the idea of the possibility of using them in the Portuguese national health system.