Can a habit formation model really explain the forward premium anomaly?

Verdelhan (2009) shows that if one is to explain the foreign exchange forward premium behavior using Campbell and Cochrane (1999)’s habit formation model one must specify it in such a way to generate pro-cyclical short term risk free rates. At the calibration procedure, we show that this is only possible in Campbell and Cochrane’s framework under implausible parameters specifications given that the price-consumption ratio diverges in almost all parameters sets. We, then, adopt Verdelhan’s shortcut of fixing the sensivity function λ(st) at its steady state level to attain a finite value for the price-consumption ratio and release it in the simulation stage to ensure pro-cyclical risk free rates. Beyond the potential inconsistencies that such procedure may generate, as suggested by Wachter (2006), with procyclical risk free rates the model generates a downward sloped real yield curve, which is at odds with the data.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties for a lack of parsimony, as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties. In order to compute the fit of each model, we propose an iterative procedure to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of a VAR model with short-run and long-run restrictions. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank, relative to the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank using our proposed procedure, relative to an unrestricted VAR or a cointegrated VAR estimated by the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration. Two empirical applications forecasting Brazilian inflation and U.S. macroeconomic aggregates growth rates respectively show the usefulness of the model-selection strategy proposed here. The gains in different measures of forecasting accuracy are substantial, especially for short horizons.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank using our proposed procedure, relative to an unrestricted VAR or a cointegrated VAR estimated by the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration. Two empirical applications forecasting Brazilian in ation and U.S. macroeconomic aggregates growth rates respectively show the usefulness of the model-selection strategy proposed here. The gains in di¤erent measures of forecasting accuracy are substantial, especially for short horizons.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. A Monte Carlo study explores the finite sample performance of this procedure and evaluates the forecasting accuracy of models selected by this procedure. Two empirical applications confirm the usefulness of the model selection procedure proposed here for forecasting.

The life-cycle effects of social security in a model with housing and endogenous benefits

This article develops a life-cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents who make choices of nondurables consumption, investment in homeowned housing and labour supply. Agents retire from an specific age and receive Social Security benefits which are dependant on average past earnings. The model is calibrated, numerically solved and is able to match stylized U.S. aggregate statistics and to generate average life-cycle profiles of its decision variables consistent with data and literature. We also conduct an exercise of complete elimination of the Social Security system and compare its results with the benchmark economy. The results enable us to emphasize the importance of endogenous labour supply and benefits for agents' consumption-smoothing behaviour.

A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models

This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.

Debt and default in a growth model

This paper presents a small open economy model with capital accumulation and without commitment to repay debt. The optimal debt contract specifies debt relief following bad shocks and debt increase following good shocks and brings first order benefits if the country's borrowing constraint is binding. Countries with less capital (with higher marginal productivity of capital) have a higher debt-GDP ratio, are more likely to default on uncontingent bonds, require higher debt relief after bad shocks and pay a higher spread over treasury. Debt relief prescribed by the optimal contract following the interest rate hikes of 1980-81 is more than half of the debt forgiveness obtained by the main Latin American countries through the Brady agreements.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Searching for doubly charged Higgs bosons at the LHC in a 3-3-1 model

Using a peculiar version of the SU(3)(L) circle times U(1)(N) electroweak model, we investigate the production of doubly charged Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results include branching ratio calculations for the doubly charged Higgs and for one of the neutral scalar bosons of the model. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exogenous Administration of 15d-PGJ(2)-Loaded Nanocapsules Inhibits Bone Resorption in a Mouse Periodontitis Model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Whole-body cortisol increases after direct and visual contact with a predator in zebrafish, Danio rerio

Ornamental fish may be severely affected by a stressful environment. Stressors impair the immune response, reproduction and growth rate; thus, the identification of possible stressors will aid to improve the overall quality of ornamental fish. The aim of this study was to determine whole-body cortisol of adult zebrafish, Danio rerio, following visual or direct contact with a predator species. Zebrafish were distributed in three groups: the first group, which consisted of zebrafish reared completely isolated of the predator, was considered the negative control; the second group, in which the predator, Parachromis managuensis was stocked together with zebrafish, was considered the positive control; the third group consisted of zebrafish stocked in a glass aquarium, with direct visual contact with the predator. The mean whole-body cortisol concentration in zebrafish from the negative control was 6.78 +/- 1.12 ng g(-1), a concentration statistically lower than that found in zebrafish having visual contact with the predator (9.26 +/- 0.88 ng g(-1)) which, in turn, was statistically lower than the mean whole-body cortisol of the positive control group (12.35 +/- 1.59 ng g(-1)). The higher whole-body cortisol concentration found in fish from the positive control can be attributed to the detection, by the zebrafish, of relevant risk situations that may involve a combination of chemical, olfactory and visual cues. One of the functions of elevated cortisol is to mobilize energy from body resources to cope with stress. The elevation of whole-body cortisol in fish subjected to visual contact with the predator involves only the visual cue in the recognition of predation risk. We hypothesized that the zebrafish could recognize predator characteristics in P managuensis, such as length, shape, color and behavior. Nonetheless, the elevation of whole-body cortisol in zebrafish suggested that the visual contact of the predator may elicit a stress response in prey fish. This assertion has a strong practical application concerning the species distribution in ornamental fish markets in which prey species should not be allowed to see predator species. Minimizing visual contact between prey and predator fish may improve the quality, viability and welfare of small fish in ornamental fish markets. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ingestion rates of Artemia nauplii for different larval stages of Macrobrachium rosenbergii

The functional response between ingestion rate and food concentration was determined for each larval stage of Macrobrachium rosenbergii. Artemia franciscana nauplii were supplied at 2,4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 per milliliter. The nauplii were counted by sight using a Pasteur pipette and transferred to Petri dishes containing 40 ml of brackish water (12 parts per thousand) lying on the top of black plastic. One larva at each stage was individually placed into each Petri dish containing different food density. After 24 h, each larva was removed from the Petri dish and the leftover nauplii were counted. The amount consumed was determined by the difference between the initial and final number of nauplii. Ingestion rate (I) increased as food density (P) increased and was defined by the model I=I-m(1-e(-kP)). The results suggest four levels of ingestion during larval development. The first level includes stages II, III and IV, with average maximum consumption of about 40 nauplii/day; the second level includes stages V and VI, with consumption of approximately 55 nauplii/day; the third level includes stages VII and VIII, with consumption of 80-100 nauplii/day. The fourth level includes stages IX, X and XI, in which the high values for maximum ingestion (Im) exceed the load capacity of the medium. The low values for constant k (that may correspond to the adaptability of the food to prey characteristics, such as, size, mobility, etc.) obtained for stages IX, X and XI indicated that Artemia is not an adequate prey and there is necessity of a supplementary diet. The best relationship between predator and prey seemed to occur during stage IV Results obtained in the present work may subsidize future researches and serve as a guideline for practical considerations of feeding rates. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative biology and production costs of Podisus nigrispinus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) when fed different types of prey

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Numerical solution of the eXtended Pom-Pom model for viscoelastic free surface flows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)