Impacts of deforestation on water balance components of a watershed on the Brazilian East Coast

The Brazilian East coast was intensely affected by deforestation, which drastically cut back the original biome. The possible impacts of this process on water resources are still unknown. The purpose of this study was an evaluation of the impacts of deforestation on the main water balance components of the Galo creek watershed, in the State of Espírito Santo, on the East coast of Brazil. Considering the real conditions of the watershed, the SWAT model was calibrated with data from 1997 to 2000 and validated for the period between 2001 and 2003. The calibration and validation processes were evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and by the statistical parameters (determination coefficient, slope coefficient and F test) of the regression model adjusted for estimated and measured flow data. After calibration and validation of the model, new simulations were carried out for three different land use scenarios: a scenario in compliance with the law (C1), assuming the preservation of PPAs (permanent preservation areas); an optimistic scenario (C2), which considers the watershed to be almost entirely covered by native vegetation; and a pessimistic scenario (C3), in which the watershed would be almost entirely covered by pasture. The scenarios C1, C2 and C3 represent a soil cover of native forest of 76, 97 and 0 %, respectively. The results were compared with the simulation, considering the real scenario (C0) with 54 % forest cover. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.65 and 0.70 for calibration and validation, respectively, indicating satisfactory results in the flow simulation. A mean reduction of 10 % of the native forest cover would cause a mean annual increase of approximately 11.5 mm in total runoff at the watershed outlet. Reforestation would ensure minimum flows in the dry period and regulate the maximum flow of the main watercourse of the watershed.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Influence of hydrodynamic interactions on the adsoption process of large particles

We have studied the adsorption process of non-Brownian particles on a line. Our work differs from previously proposed models in that we have incorporated hydrodynamic interactions between the incoming particles and the preadsorbed particles as well as the surface. We then numerically analyze the effect of these interactions on quantities related to the adsorption process. Comparing our model to the ballistic deposition model (BM) shows a significant discrepancy in the pair correlation function. These results can explain some differences between recent experiments and BM predictions. Finally, the limitations of the applicability of BM are addressed.

Formation and distribution of point defects on a disclination line near a free nematic interface

Point defects of opposite signs can alternately nucleate on the -1/2 disclination line that forms near the free surface of a confined nematic liquid crystal. We show the existence of metastable configurations consisting of periodic repetitions of such defects. These configurations are characterized by a minimal interdefect spacing that is seen to depend on sample thickness and on an applied electric field. The time evolution of the defect distribution suggests that the defects attract at small distances and repel at large distances.

Prognostic role of KRAS and BRAF in stage II and III resected colon cancer: results of the translational study on the PETACC-3, EORTC 40993, SAKK 60-00 trial.

PURPOSE: Mutations within the KRAS proto-oncogene have predictive value but are of uncertain prognostic value in the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer. We took advantage of PETACC-3, an adjuvant trial with 3,278 patients with stage II to III colon cancer, to evaluate the prognostic value of KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation status in this setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks (n = 1,564) were prospectively collected and DNA was extracted from tissue sections from 1,404 cases. Planned analysis of KRAS exon 2 and BRAF exon 15 mutations was performed by allele-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction. Survival analyses were based on univariate and multivariate proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation rates were 37.0% and 7.9%, respectively, and were not significantly different according to tumor stage. In a multivariate analysis containing stage, tumor site, nodal status, sex, age, grade, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status, KRAS mutation was associated with grade (P = .0016), while BRAF mutation was significantly associated with female sex (P = .017), and highly significantly associated with right-sided tumors, older age, high grade, and MSI-high tumors (all P < 10(-4)). In univariate and multivariate analysis, KRAS mutations did not have a major prognostic value regarding relapse-free survival (RFS) or overall survival (OS). BRAF mutation was not prognostic for RFS, but was for OS, particularly in patients with MSI-low (MSI-L) and stable (MSI-S) tumors (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.4; P = .0003). CONCLUSION: In stage II-III colon cancer, the KRAS mutation status does not have major prognostic value. BRAF is prognostic for OS in MS-L/S tumors.

Termination of major ductile strike-slip shear and differential cooling along the Insubric line (Central Alps): U-Pb, Rb-Sr and 40Ar/39Ar ages of cross-cutting pegmatites

To constrain the age of strike-slip shear, related granitic magmatism, and cooling along the Insubric line, 29 size fractions of monazite and xenotime were dated by the U-Pb method, and a series of 25 Rb-Sr and Ar-40/Ar-39 ages were measured on different size fractions of muscovite and biotite. The three pegmatitic intrusions analyzed truncate high-grade metamorphic mylonite gneisses of the Simplon shear zone, a major Alpine structure produced in association with dextral strike-slip movements along the southern edge of the European plate, after collision with its Adriatic indenter. Pegmatites and aplites were produced between 29 and 25 Ma in direct relation to right-lateral shear along the Insubric line, by melting of continental crust having Sr-87/Sr-86 between 0.7199 and 0.7244 at the time of melting. High-temperature dextral strike-slip shear was active at 29.2 +/- 0.2 (2 sigma) Ma, and it terminated before 26.4 +/- 0.1 Ma. During dike injection, temperatures in the country rocks of the Isorno-Orselina and Monte Rosa structural units did not exceed approximate to 500 degrees C, leading to fast initial cooling, followed by slower cooling to approximate to 350 degrees C within several million years. In one case, initial cooling to approximate to 500 degrees C was significantly delayed by about 4 m.y., with final cooling to approximate to 300 degrees C at 20-19 Ma in all units. For the period between 29 and 19 Ma, cooling of the three sample localities was non-uniform in space and time, with significant variations on the kilometre scale. These differences are most likely due to strongly varying heat flow, and/or heterogeneous distribution of unroofing rates within the continuously deforming Insubric line. If entirely ascribed to differences in unroofing, corresponding rates would vary between 0.5 and 2.5 mm/y, for a thermal gradient of 30 degrees/km.

Effect of low-dose chest irradiation before chemotherapy on the rate of local failure in small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the rate of tumor recurrence within the irradiated volume after initial low-dose irradiation of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), to assess the tolerance of a sequential combination of low-dose chest irradiation followed by chemotherapy, and to confirm the responsiveness of limited-stage SCLC to low-dose irradiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: In this pilot study, 26 patients with limited-stage SCLC were treated by first-line 20-Gy thoracic irradiation followed 3 weeks later by chemotherapy (cisplatin, doxorubicin, and etoposide for six cycles). RESULTS: We present our final results with a median follow-up of surviving patients of 7 years. The response rate to this low-dose irradiation was 83%, with an overall response rate to radiochemotherapy of 96% and a median survival of 21 months. No unexpected early or late toxicity was observed. The rate of initial isolated local failure was 8%, which compares favorably with other published series using higher doses of radiochemotherapy. CONCLUSION: An initial chest irradiation of 20 Gy before chemotherapy could be sufficient to reduce the risk of local failure during the time of survival of patients with limited-stage SCLC. Potential advantages of this treatment may be the prevention of resistance mechanisms to radiotherapy induced by preliminary chemotherapy and a reduced radiation-induced toxicity.

Effect of arcelin protein on the biology of Zabrotes subfasciatus (Boheman 1833), in dry beans

Arcelin is a seed protein found in wild beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) which gives resistance to Mexican bean weevil, Zabrotes subfasciatus (Boheman 1833) (Coleoptera: Bruchidae). Studies were carried out with the objective of estimating the effect of four alleles of protein arcelin (Arc1, Arc2, Arc3 and Arc4) on the biology of Z. subfasciatus. The experiment was carried out in laboratory at Embrapa-Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Arroz e Feijão, in Santo Antônio de Goiás, GO, Brazil, under non controlled conditions. The highest levels of antibiosis to Z. subfasciatus were observed in Arc1, with reduction in the number of eggs, number of emerged adults, adults longevity. In the line Arc2 only reduction in the number of emerged adults was observed. The lines Arc3 and Arc4 showed low efficiency on the reduction of progeny of Z. subfasciatus and effects in the longevity and egg-adult cycle were not detected. Insect sexual ratio was not altered by the presence of Arc1, Arc2, Arc3 and Arc4 in the seeds.

Impact of relative size and language on the attitudes between nations and linguistic groups : The case of Switzerland

This study explores the impact of relative size on the intra- and intergroup attitudes of groups who either share a language or have a different language. For that purpose, we examined international attitudes, comparing a small nation, Switzerland, and two larger nations, Germany and France. We found support for the assumption that large neighbouring nations pose a threat to the smaller nation's identity, especially when they are linguistically similar. Consequently, in line with Tajfel's Social Identity Theory (1978), the smaller nation's inhabitants evaluate those of the larger nation less positively, liking them less and perceiving them to be more arrogant than vice versa. By investigating the special case of the French-speaking and the German-speaking Swiss as linguistic groups within their own nation we were able to demonstrate that these groups seek support with the larger-linguistically-similar nation to defend themselves against the more direct in-country threat to their identity. They acknowledge the similarity with the larger nation, yet keep defending their social identity by expressing a dislike for this perceived similarity.

On the relationship between performance-approach goals and cognitive performance : when the desire to outperform others becomes interfering

Cette thèse explore dans quelle mesure la poursuite d'un but de performance-approche (i.e., le désir de surpasser autrui et de démontrer ses compétences) favorise, ou au contraire endommage, la réussite et l'apprentissage-une question toujours largement débattue dans la littérature. Quatre études menées en laboratoire ont confirmé cette hypothèse et démontré que la poursuite du but de performance-approche amène les individus à diviser leur attention entre d'une part la réalisation de la tâche évaluée, et d'autre part la gestion de préoccupations liées à l'atteinte du but-ceci empêchant une concentration efficace sur les processus de résolution de la tâche. Dans une deuxième ligne de recherche, nous avons ensuite démontré que cette distraction est exacerbée chez les individus les plus performants et ayant le plus l'habitude de réussir, ceci dérivant d'une pression supplémentaire liée au souhait de maintenir le statut positif de « bon élève ». Enfin, notre troisième ligne de recherche a cherché à réconcilier ces résultats-pointant l'aspect distractif du but de performance-approche-avec le profil se dégageant des études longitudinales rapportées dans la littérature-associant ce but avec la réussite académique. Ainsi, nous avons mené une étude longitudinale testant si l'adoption du but de performance-approche en classe pourrait augmenter la mise en oeuvre de stratégies d'étude tactiquement dirigées vers la performance-favorisant une réussite optimale aux tests. Nos résultats ont apporté des éléments en faveur de cette hypothèse, mais uniquement chez les élèves de bas niveau. Ainsi, l'ensemble de nos résultats permet de mettre en lumière les processus cognitifs à l'oeuvre lors de la poursuite du but de performance-approche, ainsi que d'alimenter le débat concernant leur aspect bénéfique ou nuisible en contexte éducatif. -- In this dissertation, we propose to investigate whether the pursuit of performance-approach goals (i.e., the desire to outperform others and appear talented) facilitates or rather endangers achievement and learning-an issue that is still widely discussed in the achievement goal literature. Four experiments carried out in a laboratory setting have provided evidence that performance- approach goals create a divided-attention situation that leads cognitive resources to be divided between task processing and the activation of goal-attainment concerns-which jeopardizes full cognitive immersion in the task. Then, in a second research line, we found evidence that high- achievers (i.e., those individuals who are the most used to succeed) experience, under evaluative contexts, heightened pressure to excel at the task, deriving from concerns associated with the preservation of their "high-achiever" status. Finally, a third research line was designed to try to reconcile results stemming from our laboratory studies with the overall profile emerging from longitudinal research-which have consistently found performance-approach goals to be a positive predictor of students' test scores. We thus set up a longitudinal study so as to test whether students' adoption of performance-approach goals in a long-term classroom setting enhances the implementation of strategic study behaviors tactically directed toward goal-attainment, hence favoring test performance. Our findings brought support for this hypothesis, but only for low-achieving students. Taken together, our findings shed new light on the cognitive processes at play during the pursuit of performance-approach goals, and are likely to fuel the debate regarding whether performance-approach goals should be encouraged or not in educational settings.

T and B lymphocytes exert distinct effects on the homeostasis of NK cells.

There is growing evidence that lymphocytes impact the development and/or function of other lymphocyte populations. Based on such observations we have tested whether the NK cell compartment was phenotypically and functionally altered in the absence of B and/or T cells. Here we show that T cell deficiency significantly accelerates BM NK cell production and the subsequent seeding of splenic and liver NK cell compartments. In contrast, B cell deficiency reduces splenic NK cell survival. In the absence of T and B cells, the size of the NK cell compartments is determined by the combination of these positive and negative effects. Even though NK cell homeostasis is significantly altered, NK cells from T and/or B cell-deficient mice show a normal capacity to kill a susceptible target cell line and to produce IFN. Nevertheless, we noted that the usage of MHC class I-specific Ly49 family receptors was significantly altered in the absence of T and/or B cells. In general, B cell deficiency expanded Ly49 receptor usage, while T cell deficiency exerted both positive and negative effects. These findings show that B and T cells significantly and differentially influence the homeostasis and the phenotype of NK cells.

Clonal acquisition of the Ly49A NK cell receptor is dependent on the trans-acting factor TCF-1.

Families of clonally expressed major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I-specific receptors provide specificity to and regulate the function of natural killer (NK) cells. One of these receptors, mouse Ly49A, is expressed by 20% of NK cells and inhibits the killing of H-2D(d) but not D(b)-expressing target cells. Here, we show that the trans-acting factor TCF-1 binds to two sites in the Ly49A promoter and regulates its activity. Moreover, we find that TCF-1 determines the size of the Ly49A NK cell subset in vivo in a dosage-dependent manner. We propose that clonal Ly49A acquisition during NK cell development is regulated by TCF-1.

Influence of the diketonato ligand on the cytotoxicities of [Ru(eta(6)-p-cymene)-(R(2)acac)(PTA)](+) complexes (PTA=1,3,5-triaza-7-phosphaadamantane)

A series of compounds of general formula [Ru(eta(6)-p-cymene) (R(2)acac)(PTA)][X] (R(2)acac = Me(2)acac, tBu(2)acac, Ph(2)acac, Me(2)acac-Cl; PTA = 1,3,5-triaza-7-phosphaadamantane; X = BPh4, BF4), and the precursor to the Me2acac-Cl derivative [Ru(eta(6)-p-cymene)(Me(2)acac-Cl)Cl], have been prepared and characterised spectroscopically. Five of the compounds have also been characterised in the solid state by X-ray crystallography. The tetrafluoroborate salts are water-soluble, quite resistant to hydrolysis, and have been evaluated for cytotoxicity against A549 lung carcinoma and A2780 human ovarian cancer cells. The compounds are cytotoxic towards the latter cell line, and relative activities are discussed in terms of hydrolysis (less important) and lipophilicity, which appears to exert the dominating influence.

Is my hand connected to my body? The impact of body continuity and arm alignment on the virtual hand illusion

When a rubber hand is placed on a table top in a plausible position as if part of a person"s body, and is stroked synchronously with the person"s corresponding hidden real hand, an illusion of ownership over the rubber hand can occur (Botvinick and Cohen 1998). A similar result has been found with respect to a virtual hand portrayed in a virtual environment, a virtual hand illusion (Slater et al. 2008). The conditions under which these illusions occur have been the subject of considerable study. Here we exploited the flexibility of virtual reality to examine four contributory factors: visuo-tactile synchrony while stroking the virtual and the real arms, body continuity, alignment between the real and virtual arms, and the distance between them. We carried out three experiments on a total of 32 participants where these factors were varied. The results show that the subjective illusion of ownership over the virtual arm and the time to evoke this illusion are highly dependent on synchronous visuo-tactile stimulation and on connectivity of the virtual arm with the rest of the virtual body. The alignment between the real and virtual arms and the distance between these were less important. It was found that proprioceptive drift was not a sensitive measure of the illusion, but was only related to the distance between the real and virtual arms.

APOBEC3G genetic variants and their influence on the progression to AIDS.

The cytosine deaminase APOBEC3G, in the absence of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) accessory gene HIV-1 viral infectivity factor (vif), inhibits viral replication by introducing G-->A hypermutation in the newly synthesized HIV-1 DNA negative strand. We tested the hypothesis that genetic variants of APOBEC3G may modify HIV-1 transmission and disease progression. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were identified in the promoter region (three), introns (two), and exons (two). Genotypes were determined for 3,073 study participants enrolled in six HIV-AIDS prospective cohorts. One codon-changing variant, H186R in exon 4, was polymorphic in African Americans (AA) (f = 37%) and rare in European Americans (f < 3%) or Europeans (f = 5%). For AA, the variant allele 186R was strongly associated with decline in CD4 T cells (CD4 slope on square root scale: -1.86, P = 0.009), The 186R allele was also associated with accelerated progression to AIDS-defining conditions in AA. The in vitro antiviral activity of the 186R enzyme was not inferior to that of the common H186 variant. These studies suggest that there may be a modifying role of variants of APOBEC3G on HIV-1 disease progression that warrants further investigation.