Sequential cost-reimbursement rules

This paper studies cost-sharing rules under dynamic adverse selection. We present a typical principal-agent model with two periods, set up in Laffont and Tirole's (1986) canonical regulation environment. At first, when the contract is signed, the firm has prior uncertainty about its efficiency parameter. In the second period, the firm learns its efficiency and chooses the level of cost-reducing effort. The optimal mechanism sequentially screens the firm's types and achieves a higher level of welfare than its static counterpart. The contract is indirectly implemented by a sequence of transfers, consisting of a fixed advance payment based on the reported cost estimate, and an ex-post compensation linear in cost performance.

Optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil

This paper presents optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil derived from a backward looking expectation model consisting of a Keynesian IS function and an Augmented Phillips Curve (ISAS). The IS function displays'a high sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real interest rate and the Phillips Curve is accelerationist. The optimal monetary rules show low interest rate volatility with reaction coefficients lower than the ones suggested by Taylor (1993a,b). Reaction functions estimated through ADL and SUR models suggest that monetary policy has not been optimal and has aimed to product rather than inflation stabilization.

Optimal-state-dependent rules, credibility, and inflationary inertia

This paper examines the output losses caused by disinflation and the role of credibility in a model where pricing mIes are optimal and individual prices are rigid. Individual nominal rigidity is modeled as resulting from menu costs. The interaction between optimal pricing mIes and credibility is essential in determining the inflationary inertia. A continued period of high inflation generates an asymmetric distribution of price deviations, with more prices that are substantially lower than their desired leveIs than prices that are substantially higher than the optimal ones. When disinflation is not credible, inflationary inertia is engendered by this asymmetry: idiosyncratic shocks trigger more upward than downward adjustments. A perfect1y credible disinflation causes an immediate change of pricing rules which, by rendering the price deviation distribution less asymmetric, practically annihilates inflationary inertia. An implication of our model is that stabilization may be sucessful even when credibility is low, provided that it is preceded by a mechanism of price alignment. We also develop an analytical framework for analyzing imperfect credibility cases.

Welfare and growth effects of alternative fiscal rules for infrastructure investment in Brazil

This article studies the interplay between fiscal rules, public investment and growth in Brazil. It is investigated if it would make sense to raise public investment and, if so, under which fiscal rule it is best to do it — whether through tax financing, debt financing, or a reduction of public consumption. We construct and simulate a competitive general equilibrium model, calibrated to Brazilian economy, in which public capital is a component of the production function and public consumption directly affects individuals’ well-being. After assessing the impacts of alternative fiscal rules, the paper concludes that the most desirable financing scheme is the reduction of public consumption, which dominates the others in terms of output and welfare gains. The model replicates the observed growth slowdown of the Brazilian economy when we increase taxes and reduce public capital formation to the levels observed after 1980 and shows that the growth impact of the expansion of tax collection in Brazil was much larger than that of public investment compression.

Decision rules and information provision : monitoring vs manipulation

We analyze the contractual design problem of a principal who delegates decision-making and information provision. The principal faces two tasks: he has to decide the level of discretion to be granted to the decision-maker and to establish who is in charge of supplying the information. We show that these two choices are intrinsically related. When the decision-maker is granted high discretion, information provision is optimally delegated to the parties directly affected by the decision. Conversely, when the decision-maker enjoys little discretion, it is more desirable to rely on a third impartial agent. The paper helps rationalize some organizational arrangements that are commonly observed in the context of judicial and antitrust decision-making.

Robustness and stabilization properties of monetary policy rules in Brazil

Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule under parameter uncertainty with the rule calculated under purely additive uncertainty, we find that parameter uncertainty should make policymakers react less aggressively to the economy's state variables, as suggested by Brainard's "conservatism principIe", although this effect seems to be relatively small. We then informally investigate each rule's robustness by analyzing the performance of policy rules derived from each model under each one of the alternative models. We find that optimal rules derived from each model perform very poorly under alternative models, whereas a simple Taylor rule is relatively robusto We also fmd that even within a specific model, the Taylor rule may perform better than the optimal rule under particularly unfavorable realizations from the policymaker' s loss distribution function.

Rules of origin: an unfinished negotiation

Many countries are also engaged in trade negotiations on FTAs. RO are a central theme on each of theses fronts. A detailed analysis of the key questions surrounding the harmonization process is compelling, given that RO talks at the WTO will affect the negotiation of FTAs. Many developing countries are waiting the results from WTO to define their own RO. Since the impasse continues, they are creating their own systems and multiplying different ROs to satisfy their needs. This article seeks to provide some clues why it was impossible, till now, to finish this multilateral negotiation. It is organized as follows: i) review of the main issues in the ARO; ii) present the main points of contention in the harmonization work; iii) analyze the implications of a harmonized system of rules of origin to the other major WTO agreements as well as to other national trade policy instruments; and to present some possible scenarios how to conclude the negotiation

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments : in search for a WTO solution e medidas compensatórias

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section

Estudo de estratégias de otimização para poços de petróleo com elevação por bombeio de cavidades progressivas

The progressing cavity pump artificial lift system, PCP, is a main lift system used in oil production industry. As this artificial lift application grows the knowledge of it s dynamics behavior, the application of automatic control and the developing of equipment selection design specialist systems are more useful. This work presents tools for dynamic analysis, control technics and a specialist system for selecting lift equipments for this artificial lift technology. The PCP artificial lift system consists of a progressing cavity pump installed downhole in the production tubing edge. The pump consists of two parts, a stator and a rotor, and is set in motion by the rotation of the rotor transmitted through a rod string installed in the tubing. The surface equipment generates and transmits the rotation to the rod string. First, is presented the developing of a complete mathematical dynamic model of PCP system. This model is simplified for use in several conditions, including steady state for sizing PCP equipments, like pump, rod string and drive head. This model is used to implement a computer simulator able to help in system analysis and to operates as a well with a controller and allows testing and developing of control algorithms. The next developing applies control technics to PCP system to optimize pumping velocity to achieve productivity and durability of downhole components. The mathematical model is linearized to apply conventional control technics including observability and controllability of the system and develop design rules for PI controller. Stability conditions are stated for operation point of the system. A fuzzy rule-based control system are developed from a PI controller using a inference machine based on Mandami operators. The fuzzy logic is applied to develop a specialist system that selects PCP equipments too. The developed technics to simulate and the linearized model was used in an actual well where a control system is installed. This control system consists of a pump intake pressure sensor, an industrial controller and a variable speed drive. The PI control was applied and fuzzy controller was applied to optimize simulated and actual well operation and the results was compared. The simulated and actual open loop response was compared to validate simulation. A case study was accomplished to validate equipment selection specialist system

Otimização do controle eletrônico do diagrama de radiação de arranjos de antenas usando algoritmos genéticos com codificação real

Antenna arrays are able to provide high and controlled directivity, which are suitable for radiobase stations, radar systems, and point-to-point or satellite links. The optimization of an array design is usually a hard task because of the non-linear characteristic of multiobjective, requiring the application of numerical techniques, such as genetic algorithms. Therefore, in order to optimize the electronic control of the antenna array radiation pattem through genetic algorithms in real codification, it was developed a numerical tool which is able to positioning the array major lobe, reducing the side lobe levels, canceling interference signals in specific directions of arrival, and improving the antenna radiation performance. This was accomplished by using antenna theory concepts and optimization methods, mainly genetic algorithms ones, allowing to develop a numerical tool with creative genes codification and crossover rules, which is one of the most important contribution of this work. The efficiency of the developed genetic algorithm tool is tested and validated in several antenna and propagation applications. 11 was observed that the numerical results attend the specific requirements, showing the developed tool ability and capacity to handle the considered problems, as well as a great perspective for application in future works.

Simulador computacional do comportamento em regime de poços de petróleo equipados com gas-lift contínuo

Amongst the results of the AutPoc Project - Automation of Wells, established between UFRN and Petrobras with the support of the CNPq, FINEP, CTPETRO, FUNPEC, was developed a simulator for equipped wells of oil with the method of rise for continuous gas-lift. The gas-lift is a method of rise sufficiently used in production offshore (sea production), and its basic concept is to inject gas in the deep one of the producing well of oil transform it less dense in order to facilitate its displacement since the reservoir until the surface. Based in the use of tables and equations that condense the biggest number of information on characteristics of the reservoir, the well and the valves of gas injection, it is allowed, through successive interpolations, to simulate representative curves of the physical behavior of the existing characteristic variable. With a simulator that approaches a computer of real the physical conditions of an oil well is possible to analyze peculiar behaviors with very bigger speeds, since the constants of time of the system in question well are raised e, moreover, to optimize costs with assays in field. The simulator presents great versatility, with prominance the analysis of the influence of parameters, as the static pressure, relation gas-liquid, pressure in the head of the well, BSW (Relation Basic Sediments and Water) in curves of request in deep of the well and the attainment of the curve of performance of the well where it can be simulated rules of control and otimization. In moving the rules of control, the simulator allows the use in two ways of simulation: the application of the control saw software simulated enclosed in the proper simulator, as well as the use of external controllers. This implies that the simulator can be used as tool of validation of control algorithms. Through the potentialities above cited, of course one another powerful application for the simulator appears: the didactic use of the tool. It will be possible to use it in formation courses and recycling of engineers

A method for plotting the complementary root locus using the root-locus (positive gain) rules

The root-locus method is a well-known and commonly used tool in control system analysis and design. It is an important topic in introductory undergraduate engineering control disciplines. Although complementary root locus (plant with negative gain) is not as common as root locus (plant with positive gain) and in many introductory textbooks for control systems is not presented, it has been shown a valuable tool in control system design. This paper shows that complementary root locus can be plotted using only the well-known construction rules to plot root locus. It can offer for the students a better comprehension on this subject. These results present a procedure to avoid problems that appear in root-locus plots for plants with the same number of poles and zeros.

Rhamnolipid emulsifying activity and emulsion stability: pH rules

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)