Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Gendered networks and Mexican migration

In this paper, we investigate how the gendered origin of migrant networks (i.e. matrilineal vs. patrilineal) is associated with aspirations to migrate and subsequent migration behavior. Using longitudinal data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), we follow 3,923 married couples across 139 municipalities over the 2002-2005 period. We find that the networks of both the individual and her/his spouse are associated with aspiring to migrate to the United States. However, one’s own network matters most (i.e. matrilineal networks for women and patrilineal networks for men). On the other hand, in terms of behavior, only matrilineal networks predict a subsequent move to the U.S. for men and women/couples, who are assessed jointly. These findings suggest that our understanding of the role of migrant networks in perpetuating male-centered, labor migration does not necessarily translate once a union has formed. We make the case that future work would do well to account for not only the presence and composition of networks, but also their origin, which in certain circumstances may be the most relevant factor.

Toleration and the fair terms of engagement with diversity

The aim of this paper is to examine the various controversies over the genuineproblems of toleration in a plurally diverse polity as both historically andconceptually, toleration is one of the foundational characteristics that defines thevery essence of a plurally diverse polity and the basic virtue associated with a liberalconception of citizenship. In section 1, I present the main philosophical andconceptual issues related to the toleration-based approach to diversity in liberalpolitical theory. In section 2 I identify the conditions and the circumstances oftoleration. I articulate in Section 3 the most pressing objections against toleration. Ipresent in section 4 two competing approaches to the toleration-based approach todiversity is faced with. In the concluding section, I outline a modified conception oftoleration that mediates between different requirements associated with the twoprincipled commitments of the liberal version of the rights-based conception ofcitizenship.

Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic versus organised mammography screening in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Various centralised mammography screening programmes have shown to reduce breast cancer mortality at reasonable costs. However, mammography screening is not necessarily cost-effective in every situation. Opportunistic screening, the predominant screening modality in several European countries, may under certain circumstances be a cost-effective alternative. In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness of both screening modalities in Switzerland. METHODS: Using micro-simulation modelling, we predicted the effects and costs of biennial mammography screening for 50-69 years old women between 1999 and 2020, in the Swiss female population aged 30-70 in 1999. A sensitivity analysis on the test sensitivity of opportunistic screening was performed. RESULTS: Organised mammography screening with an 80% participation rate yielded a breast cancer mortality reduction of 13%. Twenty years after the start of screening, the predicted annual breast cancer mortality was 25% lower than in a situation without screening. The 3% discounted cost-effectiveness ratio of organised mammography screening was euro11,512 per life year gained. Opportunistic screening with a similar participation rate was comparably effective, but at twice the costs: euro22,671-24,707 per life year gained. This was mainly related to the high costs of opportunistic mammography and frequent use of imaging diagnostics in combination with an opportunistic mammogram. CONCLUSION: Although data on the performance of opportunistic screening are limited, both opportunistic and organised mammography screening seem effective in reducing breast cancer mortality in Switzerland. However, for opportunistic screening to become equally cost-effective as organised screening, costs and use of additional diagnostics should be reduced.

Selvitys Eduskunnan lisärakennuksen taidekilpailusta

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate how and why an art competition was arranged to select pieces for the parliamentary annexe building in Helsinki. There is an emphasis on the cultural production aspects of the research. For the purpose of comparison, the thesis also examines how art acquisition takes place in the cities of Helsinki, Salo and Vantaa, and how the so-called percentage principle has been used in these cities The research method involved thematic interviewing of four persons with central positions on the competition jury. Questions were also sent by e-mail to experts and other people with knowledge of the subject area. Although art competitions have been arranged in Finland for decades, very little relevant literature exists. In addition to the interviews, other relevant literature was also referred to, including parliamentary records. The crucial questions concerned why the art competition for the parliamentary annexe was arranged and whether, indeed, it is possible to compete artistically in this manner. The thesis also examined the relationship between art and architecture and how the best works were selected from the vast range of submissions. The answers were both honest and interesting. The thesis presents a step-by-step analysis of the competition's progress over two stages, and according to the specific rules for such competitions as laid out in Suomen Taiteilijaseura. Strict adherence to the rules of the competition created a number of problems, some of which are also studied. The primary reason for staging a competition was to be as democratic as possible, and eliminating any possibility of nominating a particular artist or artists to realise their own work within the annexe. The competition opened up the possibility to consider various artistic proposals, and no genres were ruled out in advance. This format ensured a good response and a total of 1719 proposals were received, of which six were eventually selected. One conclusion was that open competition may not be the best way to gather artistic proposals in such circumstances, but it is very democratic.

TV taskussa - tänään ja tulevaisuudessa

The objective of my thesis was to find out how mobile TV service will influence TV consumption behaviour of the Finns. In particular the study focuses on the consumption behaviour of a well educated urban people. For my thesis, I provided a detailed analysis of the study results of a large scale questionnaire research FinPilot from the year 2005 based on an assignment of Nokia Ltd. In order to deepen the study results, I focused on the above mentioned group of young people with good education. The goal of the FinPilot research was to give answers to the following questions: what kind of programs, in what kind of circumstances, and for which reasons are they watched when using the mobile television service. The results of the research consisted mainly of data like figures, graphics etc. The data was explaned from the helicopter perspective, for it gave additional value to the research and consequently to my own thesis. My study offered complementary, unique information about their needs as it was based on questionnaires supplemented by individual interviews of the group members, their free comments as well as group discussions. The study results proved that mobile TV service did not increase the total TV consumption time. The time used for watching the mobile TV was significantly shorter than the time for watching the traditional TV. According to my study, the young urban people with good education are more interested to adapt the mobile TV service than the average Finns. Being eager to utilize the added value offered by the mobile TVs they are a potential target group in launching and marketing processes. On the basis of the outcome of the thesis, the future of mobile TV service seems very promising. The content and the pricing, however, have to match the user's needs and expectations. All the study results prove that there exists a social order for mobile TV service.

Feasibility of replacing multiple ADSL connections with Multi-Dwelling Access

This final project was made for the Broadband/Implementation department of TeliaSonera Finland. The question to be examined is if the operator should replace multiple ADSL connections implemented over a leased line with Multi-Dwelling access based on an Ethernet/Optical Fibre access network. The project starts with describing the technology related to these access network solu-tions and presents the technology that is used in TeliaSonera Finland's access network. It continues from the technology to describe the problem with some of the ADSL implemen-tations of TeliaSonera. The problem is the implementations done over a leased line that can cost TeliaSonera over years as much as a possible investment to extend network when there is several lines leased to the same building. The project proposes a Multi-Dwelling access as a solution to this problem and defines the circumstances when to use it. After a satisfactory solution has found the project takes a view how implementation of the solution might alter the network and a new problem is found. When used commonly to replace need of ADSL implementation Multi-Dwelling access would significantly increase optical cable congestion near operators POP. As a final deed this project also proposes a technical change to existing way to implement multi-dwelling access with EPON technology.

Collective Marketing Arrangements for Geographically Differentiated Agricultural Products: Welfare Impacts and Policy Implications, May 2006

This paper examines the incentive of atomistic agricultural producers within a specific geographical region to differentiate and collectively market products. We develop a model that allows us to analyze the market and welfare effects of the main types of real-world producer organizations, using it to derive economic insights regarding the circumstances under which these organizations will evolve, and describing implications of the results obtained in the context of an ongoing debate between the European Union and United States. As the anticipated fixed costs of development and marketing increase and the anticipated size of the market falls, it becomes essential to increase the ability of the producer organization to control supply in order to ensure the coverage of fixed costs. Whenever a collective organization allows a market (with a new product) to exist that otherwise would not have existed there is an increase in societal welfare. Counterintuitively, stronger property right protection for producer organizations may be welfare enhancing even after a differentiated product has been developed. The reason for this somewhat paradoxical result is that legislation aimed at curtailing the market power of producer organizations may induce large technological distortions.

Economic Booms, Trade Deficits, and Economic Policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by real exchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -which have sometimes persisted after the return to the initial exchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector. Those circumstances have typically raised the question of the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expected productivity shock in an economy where the capital stock is non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances. Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfections tend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause an inefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector. Some stabilization policies are explored.

Health Care and Public Transit; Your Ticket to Health Care Access, 2005

Transportation is an important health care issue. The majority of the population here in Iowa have ready access and typically use private automobiles to access health care and other community services. There is also a significant segment of the population that either does not have access to a personal automobile or is not currently capable of driving. This can potentially limit their access to health care, but it has greater health implications because it can also limit access to nutrition and other community services, as well as involvement in social activities. For people unable to drive themselves, the alternatives generally include reliance on family, friends, volunteer groups, and public transit. Many choose transit because it gives them a degree of independence. Public transit is often used to supplement other options even when they are available. It becomes critical in circumstances where the other options don’t exist. In many cases there may be no family available or they may not always be able to get off work when travel needs arise during the workday. Friends may be in similar circumstances and volunteer groups may be either unavailable or overwhelmed. The fact that many patients depend on public transit to get to and from health care appointments makes it beneficial for health care professionals to get to know more about public transit and how it operates here in Iowa.

Leading Double Lives: The History of the Double House in Des Moines, 2005

How people choose to live depends on a variety of social and economic circumstances. Single family dwellings, extended family compounds, and communal apartment blocks are all forms of residential architecture that have ancient roots and occur in every culture. Each form both reflects and affects the living styles of the people who reside there. The double house, which shelters two families in units separated by a wall or floor, balances the convenience of an apartment with the psychological comforts of a home. During the mid to late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the United States, the double house was hugely popular in some cities, such as Minneapolis and Milwaukee, but only a minimal presence in Des Moines

Fiat Money, Intrinsic Properties, and Government Transaction Policy

Why do people coordinate on the use of valueless pieces of paper as generally accepted money? A possible answer is that these objects have intrinsic properties that make them better candidates to be used as media of exchange. Another answer stresses the fact that unconvertible fiat money will not easily appear unless there is a centralized institution that favors its use. The main objective of the paper is to analyze these questions. In order to do this, we take a model of commodity money in which fiat money does not play any significant role and modify it to examine under which circumstances fiat money might come to circulate as medium of exchange. Some of the results obtained from the model differ in a rather substantial way from previous related literature.

Neurotoxicant-induced inflammatory response in three-dimensional brain cell cultures.

Brain inflammatory response is triggered by the activation of microglial cells and astrocytes in response to various types of CNS injury, including neurotoxic insults. Its outcome is determined by cellular interactions, inflammatory mediators, as well as trophic and/or cytotoxic signals, and depends on many additional factors such as the intensity and duration of the insult, the extent of both the primary neuronal damage and glial reactivity and the developmental stage of the brain. Depending on particular circumstances, the brain inflammatory response can promote neuroprotection, regeneration or neurodegeneration. Glial reactivity, regarded as the central phenomenon of brain inflammation, has also been used as an early marker of neurotoxicity. To study the mechanisms underlying the glial reactivity, serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures were used as an in vitro model to test the effects of conventional neurotoxicants such as organophosphate pesticides, heavy metals, excitotoxins and mycotoxins. This approach was found to be relevant and justified by the complex cell-cell interactions involved in the brain inflammatory response, the variability of the glial reactions and the multitude of mediators involved. All these variables need to be considered for the elucidation of the specific cellular and molecular reactions and their consequences caused by a given chemical insult.

BETWEEN DREAMS AND REALITY: Migration of Brazilian women to Switzerland

The general objective of this article was to study the process of illegal migration of Brazilian women to Switzerland and, more specifically, to analyze the motivations for migration, the difficulties found upon arrival, the circumstances that led them to get married and lastly an evaluation of the whole experience. The methodology was based in a qualitative approach. The participants were eight Brazilian women that illegally migrated to Switzerland but now are married with Swiss or European men. They responded to an interview focused in the objectives of the study. The appreciation of the data was realized with Minayo´s Content Analysis. The motivations were related to a bettering of the financial situation. In the difficulties encountered, we can bring out illegality, language and prejudice. Regarding marriage, they married to stay legally in the country. Finally, the evaluation of the experience was negative for most participants.

Modes of acquisition of health literacy skills in informal learning contexts

In this article we try to analyze the learning processes of health literacy skills in informal contexts. We intend to broaden the understanding of the learning process beyond the formal contexts, thus contributing to the elucidation of health professionals on how individuals acquire and manage their knowledge in health matters. Given our goal, we use an analytic corpus constituted by one hundred autobiographical narratives written between 2006 and 2011, in educational contexts but with recognized potential for use in different scientific fields, including health. The results reveal the existence of three different types of modes of learning health literacy skills in informal context: : i) learning that takes place in action, in achieving daily tasks; ii) learning processes that result from problem solving; iii) learning that occurs in an unplanned manner, resulting from accidental circumstances and, in some cases, devoid of intentionality.