824 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model
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Automated and semi-automated accessibility evaluation tools are key to streamline the process of accessibility assessment, and ultimately ensure that software products, contents, and services meet accessibility requirements. Different evaluation tools may better fit different needs and concerns, accounting for a variety of corporate and external policies, content types, invocation methods, deployment contexts, exploitation models, intended audiences and goals; and the specific overall process where they are introduced. This has led to the proliferation of many evaluation tools tailored to specific contexts. However, tool creators, who may be not familiar with the realm of accessibility and may be part of a larger project, lack any systematic guidance when facing the implementation of accessibility evaluation functionalities. Herein we present a systematic approach to the development of accessibility evaluation tools, leveraging the different artifacts and activities of a standardized development process model (the Unified Software Development Process), and providing templates of these artifacts tailored to accessibility evaluation tools. The work presented specially considers the work in progress in this area by the W3C/WAI Evaluation and Report Working Group (ERT WG)
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La Gestión Forestal Sostenible se define como “la administración y uso de los bosques y tierras forestales de forma e intensidad tales que mantengan su biodiversidad, productividad, capacidad de regeneración, vitalidad y su potencial para atender, ahora y en el futuro, las funciones ecológicas, económicas y sociales relevantes a escala local, nacional y global, y que no causan daño a otros ecosistemas” (MCPFE Conference, 1993). Dentro del proceso los procesos de planificación, en cualquier escala, es necesario establecer cuál será la situación a la que se quiere llegar mediante la gestión. Igualmente, será necesario conocer la situación actual, pues marcará la situación de partida y condicionará el tipo de actuaciones a realizar para alcanzar los objetivos fijados. Dado que, los Proyectos de Ordenación de Montes y sus respectivas revisiones son herramientas de planificación, durante la redacción de los mismos, será necesario establecer una serie de objetivos cuya consecución pueda verificarse de forma objetiva y disponer de una caracterización de la masa forestal que permita conocer la situación de partida. Esta tesis se centra en problemas prácticos, propios de una escala de planificación local o de Proyecto de Ordenación de Montes. El primer objetivo de la tesis es determinar distribuciones diamétricas y de alturas de referencia para masas regulares por bosquetes, empleando para ello el modelo conceptual propuesto por García-Abril et al., (1999) y datos procedentes de las Tablas de producción de Rojo y Montero (1996). Las distribuciones de referencia obtenidas permitirán guiar la gestión de masas irregulares y regulares por bosquetes. Ambos tipos de masas aparecen como una alternativa deseable en aquellos casos en los que se quiere potenciar la biodiversidad, la estabilidad, la multifuncionalidad del bosque y/o como alternativa productiva, especialmente indicada para la producción de madera de calidad. El segundo objetivo de la Tesis está relacionado con la necesidad de disponer de una caracterización adecuada de la masa forestal durante la redacción de los Proyectos de Ordenación de Montes y de sus respectivas revisiones. Con el fin de obtener estimaciones de variables forestales en distintas unidades territoriales de potencial interés para la Ordenación de Montes, así como medidas de la incertidumbre en asociada dichas estimaciones, se extienden ciertos resultados de la literatura de Estimación en Áreas Pequeñas. Mediante un caso de estudio, se demuestra el potencial de aplicación de estas técnicas en inventario forestales asistidos con información auxiliar procedente de sensores láser aerotransportados (ALS). Los casos de estudio se realizan empleando datos ALS similares a los recopilados en el marco del Plan Nacional de Ortofotografía Aérea (PNOA). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que es posible aumentar la eficiencia de los inventarios forestales tradicionales a escala de proyecto de Ordenación de Montes, mediante la aplicación de estimadores EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) con modelos a nivel de elemento poblacional e información auxiliar ALS similar a la recopilada por el PNOA. ABSTRACT According to MCPFE (1993) Sustainable Forest Management is “the stewardship and use of forests and forest lands in a way, and at a rate, that maintains their biodiversity, productivity, regeneration capacity, vitality and their potential to fulfill, now and in the future, relevant ecological, economic and social functions, at local, national, and global levels, and that does not cause damage to other ecosystems”. For forest management planning, at any scale, we must determine what situation is hoped to be achieved through management. It is also necessary to know the current situation, as this will mark the starting point and condition the type of actions to be performed in order to meet the desired objectives. Forest management at a local scale is no exception. This Thesis focuses on typical problems of forest management planning at a local scale. The first objective of this Thesis is to determine management objectives for group shelterwood management systems in terms of tree height and tree diameter reference distributions. For this purpose, the conceptual model proposed by García-Abril et al., (1999) is applied to the yield tables for Pinus sylvestris in Sierra de Guadrrama (Rojo y Montero, 1996). The resulting reference distributions will act as a guide in the management of forests treated under the group shelterwood management systems or as an approximated reference for the management of uneven aged forests. Both types of management systems are desirable in those cases where forest biodiversity, stability and multifunctionality are pursued goals. These management systems are also recommended as alternatives for the production of high quality wood. The second objective focuses on the need to adequately characterize the forest during the decision process that leads to local management. In order to obtain estimates of forest variables for different management units of potential interest for forest planning, as well as the associated measures of uncertainty in these estimates, certain results from Small Area Estimation Literature are extended to accommodate for the need of estimates and reliability measures in very small subpopulations containing a reduced number of pixels. A case study shows the potential of Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques in forest inventories assisted with remotely sensed auxiliary information. The influence of the laser pulse density in the quality of estimates in different aggregation levels is analyzed. This study considers low laser pulse densities (0.5 returns/m2) similar to, those provided by large-scale Airborne Laser Scanner (ALS) surveys, such as the one conducted by the Spanish National Geographic Institute for about 80% of the Spanish territory. The results obtained show that it is possible to improve the efficiency of traditional forest inventories at local scale using EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) estimators based on unit level models and low density ALS auxiliary information.
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Las infraestructuras de telecomunicaciones son las que forman la capa física para la transmisión de la información de la que se componen las comunicaciones. Según el modelo OSI la capa física se encarga de convertir la trama que recibe (del nivel de enlace) en una serie de bits que envía a través del medio de transmisión correspondiente hacia el sistema destino, liberando a la capa superior de las funciones que imponga la naturaleza particular del medio de transmisión que se utilice. Para ello define las características mecánicas, eléctricas y funcionales de la interconexión al medio físico estableciendo además una interfaz con su capa superior (el nivel de enlace). Dependiendo del medio y el modo de transmisión así como de la topología de la red, el tipo de codificación y configuración de la línea y el tipo de comunicación deseada se requiere de un equipamiento u otro, por lo que la infraestructura de comunicaciones cambia. La complejidad de las redes de comunicaciones (multitud de servicios a multitud de destinos) hace que la gestión de la capa física (o de infraestructura) de las comunicaciones sea un reto difícil para los gestores de las telecomunicaciones en las empresas u organismos públicos. Ya que conseguir una correcta administración de las infraestructuras de telecomunicaciones es un factor clave para garantizar la calidad del servicio, optimizar los tiempos de provisión a los clientes y minimizar la indisponibilidad de la red ante incidencias. Si bien existen diferentes herramientas para la gestión de las telecomunicaciones la mayoría de estas soluciones contempla de manera limitada la capa física, dejando a los gestores con una multitud de aproximaciones, más o menos manuales, para entender y conocer qué pasa en su red a nivel físico y lo que puede ser aún más grave, sin la capacidad de reacción rápida ante la aparición de una incidencia. Para resolver este problema se hace necesaria la capacidad de gestión extremo a extremo de los circuitos y de todas sus conexiones intermedias. Esto es, se necesita implantar una metodología que modele la red de comunicaciones de manera que se pueda representar en un sistema informático y sobre él facilitar la gestión de los circuitos físicos y de sus infraestructuras asociadas. Por ello, la primera parte del proyecto consistirá en la descripción del tipo de infraestructura de telecomunicaciones a gestionar, el estudio de las soluciones actuales de gestión de red y el análisis de las estrategias que se están considerando para permitir la gestión de la capa física. La segunda parte estará dedicada a la definición de una metodología para la representación de la capa física en un sistema informático, de manera que se proporcione una solución completa a las organizaciones para la gestión eficaz de su infraestructura de telecomunicaciones. Y la tercera parte se centrará en la realización de un ejemplo real (piloto) de implantación de esta metodología para un proyecto concreto de una red de comunicaciones. Con objeto de mostrar las prestaciones de la solución propuesta. ABSTRACT. Telecommunications infrastructures have the physical layer component for the transfer of data. As defined in OSI model the physical layer performs the conversion of data received to binary digits which are sent through the transmission devices towards the target system, thus freeing the top layer from defining the functional specifics of each device used. This requires the full definition of the mechanical, electrical and functional features within the physical environment and the implementation of an interface with the top layer. Dependencies on the environment and the transmission modes as well as the network’s topology, the type of protocol and the line’s configuration and the type of communication selected provide specific requirements which define the equipment needed. This may also require changes in the communications environment. Current networks’ complexity (many different types of services to many nodes) demand an efficient management of the physical layer and the infrastructure in enterprises and the public sector agencies thus becoming a challenging task to the responsible for administering the telecommunications infrastructure which is key to provide high quality of service with the need to avoid any disruption of service. We have in the market different tools supporting telecommunications management but most of these solutions have limited functionality for the physical layer, leaving to administrators with the burden of executing manual tasks which need to be performed in order to attain the desired level of control which facilitates the decision process when incidents occur. An adequate solution requires an end to end capacity management of the circuits and all intermediate connections. We must implement a methodology to model the communications network to be able of representing an entire IT system to manage circuitry and associated infrastructure components. For the above purpose, the first part of the Project includes a complete description of the type of communications infrastructure to manage, the study of the current solutions available in network management and an analysis of the strategies in scope for managing the physical layer. The second part is dedicated to the definition of a methodology for the presentation of the physical layer in an IT system with the objective of providing a complete solution to the responsible staffs for efficiently managing a telecommunications infrastructure. The third part focuses on the deployment of a pilot using this methodology in a specific project performed on a communications network. Purpose is to show the deliverables of the proposed solution.
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En la mayoría de problemas de decisión a los que nos enfrentamos no hay evidencia sobre cuál es la mejor elección debido a la complejidad de los mismos. Esta complejidad está asociada a la existencia de múltiples objetivos conflictivos y a que en muchos casos solo se dispone de información incompleta o imprecisa sobre los distintos parámetros del modelo de decisión. Por otro lado, el proceso de toma de decisiones se puede realizar en grupo, debiendo incorporar al modelo las preferencias individuales de cada uno de los decisores y, posteriormente, agregarlas para alcanzar un consenso final, lo que dificulta más todavía el proceso de decisión. La metodología del Análisis de Decisiones (AD) es un procedimiento sistemático y lógico que permite estructurar y simplificar la tarea de tomar decisiones. Utiliza la información existente, datos recogidos, modelos y opiniones profesionales para cuantificar la probabilidad de los valores o impactos de las alternativas y la Teoría de la Utilidad para cuantificar las preferencias de los decisores sobre los posibles valores de las alternativas. Esta tesis doctoral se centra en el desarrollo de extensiones del modelo multicriterio en utilidad aditivo para toma de decisiones en grupo con veto en base al AD y al concepto de la intensidad de la dominancia, que permite explotar la información incompleta o imprecisa asociada a los parámetros del modelo. Se considera la posibilidad de que la importancia relativa que tienen los criterios del problema para los decisores se representa mediante intervalos de valores o información ordinal o mediante números borrosos trapezoidales. Adicionalmente, se considera que los decisores tienen derecho a veto sobre los valores de los criterios bajo consideración, pero solo un subconjunto de ellos es efectivo, teniéndose el resto solo en cuenta de manera parcial. ABSTRACT In most decision-making problems, the best choice is unclear because of their complexity. This complexity is mainly associated with the existence of multiple conflicting objectives. Besides, there is, in many cases, only incomplete or inaccurate information on the various decision model parameters. Alternatively, the decision-making process may be performed by a group. Consequently, the model must account for individual preferences for each decision-maker (DM), which have to be aggregated to reach a final consensus. This makes the decision process even more difficult. The decision analysis (DA) methodology is a systematic and logical procedure for structuring and simplifying the decision-making task. It takes advantage of existing information, collected data, models and professional opinions to quantify the probability of the alternative values or impacts and utility theory to quantify the DM’s preferences concerning the possible alternative values. This PhD. thesis focuses on developing extensions for a multicriteria additive utility model for group decision-making accounting for vetoes based on DA and on the concept of dominance intensity in order to exploit incomplete or imprecise information associated with the parameters of the decision-making model. We consider the possibility of the relative importance of criteria for DMs being represented by intervals or ordinal information, or by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Additionally, we consider that DMs are allowed to provide veto values for the criteria under consideration, of which only a subset are effective, whereas the remainder are only partially taken into account.
Sostenibilidad en el sector de la construcción. Sostenibilidad en estructuras y puentes ferroviarios
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La escasez de recursos, el cambio climático, la pobreza y el subdesarrollo, los desastres naturales, son solo algunos de los grandes retos a que se enfrenta la humanidad y a los que la economía verde y el desarrollo sostenible tienen que dar respuesta. El concepto sostenible surge a raíz de la necesidad de lograr en todas las actividades humanas un nuevo equilibrio con el medioambiente, la sociedad y la economía, es decir un desarrollo más sostenible. La construcción supone en este nuevo concepto un sector básico, con grandes impactos en los recursos, los residuos, las emisiones, la biodiversidad, el paisaje, las necesidades sociales, la integración, el desarrollo económico del entorno, etc. Es por ello, que la construcción sostenible tiene una importancia esencial como demuestra su amplia aplicación teórica y práctica ya en proyectos de planificación urbana y de edificación. En la ingeniería civil estas aproximaciones son todavía mínimas, aunque ya se están considerando ciertos criterios de sostenibilidad en proyectos de construcción. La construcción consume muchos recursos naturales, económicos y tiene gran incidencia social. En la actualidad su actividad consume un 30% de los recursos extraídos de la tierra y la energía, y en consecuencia genera el 30% de los gases de efecto invernadero y residuos sólidos del mundo (EEA, 2014). Este impacto debería suponer una gran responsabilidad para los profesionales y gobiernos que toman cada día las decisiones de diseño e inversión en la construcción, y su máxima eficiencia debería estar muy presente entre los objetivos. En esta tesis doctoral se plantea un nuevo modelo para la evaluación de la sostenibilidad en los proyectos mediante un sistema de indicadores, basados en las áreas de estudio de las certificaciones de sostenibilidad existentes y en un análisis multi-criterio de cada uno de los axiomas de la sostenibilidad. Como reto principal se marca la propuesta de una metodología que permita identificar, priorizar y seleccionar los indicadores y las variables más importantes de lo que es considerado como una construcción sostenible en el caso de infraestructuras ferroviarias, más concretamente en puentes ferroviarios, y que además sirva para priorizar nuevos proyectos que se adapten a los nuevos objetivos del desarrollo sostenible: el respeto al medioambiente, la integración social y la económica. El objetivo es la aplicación de estos indicadores desde las etapas más tempranas del proyecto: planificación, diseño de alternativas y selección de alternativas. Para ello, en primer lugar, se ha realizado un análisis en profundidad de los distintas organizaciones de certificación de la sostenibilidad mundiales y se ha desarrollado una comparativa entre ellas, detallando el funcionamiento de las más extendidas (BREEAM, LEED, VERDE, DGNB). Tras esto, se ha analizado la herramienta matemática MIVES de análisis multi-criterio para su aplicación, en la tesis, a las infraestructuras ferroviarias. En la segunda parte se desarrolla para las estructuras ferroviarias un nuevo modelo de indicadores, un sistema de ayuda a la decisión multi-criterio basado en los tres axiomas de las sostenibilidad (sociedad, medioambiente y economía), articulados en un árbol de requerimientos inspirado en el método MIVES, que propone una metodología para el caso de las infraestructuras ferroviarias. La metodología MIVES estructura el proceso de decisión en tres ramas: Requisitos, componentes y ciclo de vida. Estas ramas definen los límites de los sistemas. El eje de los requisitos del árbol de los requisitos o se estructura en tres niveles que corresponden al requisito específico: criterios e indicadores. Además, es necesario definen la función del valor para cada indicador, definen el peso de importancia de cada elemento del árbol y finalmente con el calcular el valor de cada alternativa selecciona el mejor de él. La generación de este árbol de requerimientos en estructuras ferroviarias y la medición de los parámetro es original para este tipo de estructuras. Por último, tras el desarrollo de la metodología, se ha aplicado la propuesta metodológica mediante la implementación práctica, utilizando el método propuesto con 2 puentes ferroviarios existentes. Los resultados han mostrado que la herramienta es capaz de establecer una ordenación de las actuaciones coherente y suficientemente discriminante como para que el decisor no tenga dudas cuando deba tomar la decisión. Esta fase, es una de las grandes aportaciones de la tesis, ya que permite diferenciar los pesos obtenidos en cada una de las áreas de estudio y donde la toma de decisión puede variar dependiendo de las necesidades del decisor, la ubicación del puente de estudio etc. ABSTRACT Scarce resources, climate change, poverty and underdevelopment, natural disasters are just some of the great challenges facing humanity and to which the green economy will have to respond. The sustainable concept arises from the need for all human activities in a new equilibrium with the environment, society and the economy, which is known as sustainable development. The construction industry is part of this concept, because of its major impacts on resources, waste, emissions, biodiversity, landscape, social needs, integration, economical development, environment, etc. Therefore, sustainable construction has a critical importance as already demonstrated by its wide application and theoretical practice in urban planning and building projects. In civil engineering, these approaches are still minimal, although some criteria are already taken into account for sustainability in infrastructure projects. The construction industry requires a lot of natural resources, has a real economic relevance and a huge social impact. Currently, it consumes 40% of produced power as well as natural resources extracted from the earth and thus leads to an environmental impact of 40% regarding greenhouse gas emissions and solid wastes (EEA 2014). These repercussions should highly concern our governments and professional of this industry on the decisions they take regarding investments and designs. They must be inflexible in order to ensure that the main concern has to be a maximum efficiency. Major events like the COP21 held in Paris in December 2015 are a concrete signal of the worldwide awareness of the huge impact of each industry on climate. In this doctoral thesis a new model for the evaluation of the sustainability in the projects by means of a system of indicators, based on the areas of study of the existing certifications of sustainability and on an analysis considers multi-criterion of each one of the axioms of the sustainability. The primary aim of this thesis is to study the mode of application of sustainability in projects through a system of indicators. . The main challenge consists of create a methodology suitable to identify, prioritize and select the most important indicators which define if a building is sustainable in the specific case of railway infrastructures. The methodology will help to adapt future projects to the new goals of sustainable development which are respect of nature, social integration and economic relevance. A crucial point is the consideration of these indicators from the very beginning steps of the projects: planning, design and alternatives reflections. First of all, a complete inventory of all world energy certification organizations has been made in order to compare the most representative ones regarding their way of functioning (BREEAM, LEED, VERDE, DGNB). After this, mathematical tool MIVES of analysis has been analyzed multi-criterion for its application, in the thesis, to railway infrastructures. The second part of the thesis is aimed to develop a new model of indicators, inspired by the MIVES method, consisting in a decision-making system based on the 3 foundations of sustainability: nature impact, social concerns, and economic relevance. The methodology MIVES structures the decision process in three axes: Requirements, components and life cycle. These axes define the boundaries of the systems. The axis of requirements o tree requirements is structured in three levels corresponding to specific requirement: criteria and indicators. In addition, is necessary define the value function for each indicator, define the weight of importance of each element of the tree and finally with the calculate the value of each alternative select the best of them. The generation of this tree requirements in railway structures and measuring the parameter is original for this type of structures. Finally, after the development of the methodology, it has validated the methodology through practical implementation, applying the proposed method 2 existing railway bridges. The results showed that the tool is able to establish a coherent management of performances and discriminating enough so that the decision maker should not have doubts when making the decision. This phase, is one of the great contributions of the thesis, since it allows to differentiate the weights obtained in each one from the study areas and where the decision making can vary depending on the necessities of the decisor, the location of the bridge of study etc.
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El consumo mundial, impulsor del desarrollo y crecimiento económico de los pueblos, no ha sido igual para todas las naciones, ya que sus efectos han sido diferentes para los ciudadanos de los países del Norte y los del Sur, principalmente por dos razones: una, porque han originado complejos y diferentes estilos de vida y aspiraciones, lo que ha originado grandes diferencias entre los individuos de unos y otros países, y, dos, por su falta de valores sociales y éticos. Ante esta situación, la sociedad en su conjunto debe tomar conciencia de este hecho, y a través de un consumo responsable y de un mayor conocimiento de las relaciones comerciales entre los pueblos, debe optar por consumir productos elaborados bajo criterios de justicia y equidad. Para ayudar a alcanzar estos objetivos de equidad, solidaridad, justicia y ética, nació el Comercio Justo, que, en el caso de España, llegó con veinte años de retraso en la década de los ochenta. Aunque a día de hoy sus ventas crecen a un buen ritmo, siguen siendo inferiores al resto de los países europeos, por cuatro razones: (1) el desconocimiento que la mayoría de los potenciales consumidores tienen de este movimiento social; (2) la dificultad de acceder a los productos que comercializan; (3) el poco impulso que se ofrece desde las Administraciones Públicas; y, (4) porque hay pocas investigaciones en las que se haya analizado el Comercio Justo desde la perspectiva de la demanda, lo que ha implicado que no haya un conocimiento profundo sobre los consumidores de este tipo de productos y sobre sus motivaciones de compra. En base a todo lo expuesto, el presente trabajo se concibe como un estudio exploratorio, que tiene como objetivo principal analizar el perfil de los consumidores y no consumidores de productos de Comercio Justo, sus motivaciones de compra y no compra, así como las variables que influyen en la intención de compra futura, tanto en el segmento de consumidores actuales, como en el segmento de no consumidores de este tipo de productos. Para la realización de este trabajo, se ha utilizado, por una parte, una metodología cualitativa, que ha permitido acceder a la información sobre las opiniones y actitudes que intervienen en los procesos de decisión de compra; y, por otra, una metodología cuantitativa, a través de una encuesta online dirigida a 6.500 individuos, que ha permitido tener información, a través de sendos análisis descriptivos univariante y bivariante, de los individuos encuestados sobre el objeto del estudio. Para validar los modelos y contrastar las hipótesis planteadas, se ha utilizado el análisis de fiabilidad y validación de las escalas de medición seleccionadas (Alpha de Cronbach); el análisis factorial exploratorio, para comprobar la dimensionalidad y validez convergente de las escalas de medida; el análisis factorial confirmatorio, para validar la idoneidad de los modelos de medida propuestos; la regresión logística, para comprobar la validez del modelo general de la probabilidad de la compra o no compra de productos de Comercio Justo; y la regresión lineal múltiple, para comprobar la validez de los modelos específicos de intención de compra futura en los segmentos de compradores y de no compradores. Para realizar todos estos análisis, se han utilizado las herramientas informáticas SPSS v21 y AMOS. Las principales conclusiones del trabajo son: (1) que se deben establecer unos criterios claros que definan quién es quién en el movimiento de Comercio Justo, sus fines, sus objetivos, los productos que comercializan, así como su funcionamiento y desarrollo en España; (2) que, a pesar de las grandes ventajas y posibilidades del Comercio Justo, hay una falta de demanda de estos productos por parte de los consumidores responsables, debido principalmente a la falta de información-comunicación sobre el propio movimiento, y, muy especialmente, a la falta de información sobre los productos, los canales de comercialización, las políticas de precios, las políticas de comunicación, etc., y a la necesidad de que estos productos estén accesibles en los lugares donde los consumidores hacen su compra habitual; y (3) que el Comercio Justo español debe afrontar una serie de desafíos, como son la coordinación entre las diferentes organizaciones que participan en su desarrollo; la sensibilización de los consumidores; la creación de una imagen de marca que defina de una manera clara y sencilla qué es el Comercio Justo; la orientación al cliente y no al producto; y extender la red de comercialización de productos de Comercio Justo a los canales donde los consumidores hacen su compra habitualmente. ABSTRACT Global consumption, the driver of economic growth and development of nations, is not the same for all countries, since its effects have been different on people coming from the North or the South. This is due mainly to two reasons: firstly, because they have developed complex and different lifestyles and aspirations, which have led to significant differences between individuals of one country and another and secondly, because they lack social and ethical values. Given this situation, society as a whole should be aware of this fact, and through responsible consumption and a greater knowledge of trade relations between countries, should opt for consuming products produced with criteria of justice and equity. Fair Trade began as a way to help reach these goals of equity, solidarity, justice and ethics. In the case of Spain it did not start until 20 years later, in the eighties. Although today sales of Fair Trade products are growing at a good rate, they are still below that of other European countries, for four reasons: (1) unawareness of this social movement; (2) the difficult access to these products; (3) insufficient government support; (4) the limited research carried out to analyse Fair Trade from the perspective of demand, resulting in a lack of knowledge about this type of consumer and their purchasing motivations. Based on the above, the present study is designed as an exploratory investigation, aimed at analyzing the profile of consumers and non-consumers of Fair Trade, their motivations for buying and not buying, as well as the variables which influence future purchase intention in both the current consumer segment, and the non-user segment of such products. To carry out this study we have used, on the one hand, a qualitative methodology, to obtain information about the views and attitudes involved in the purchase decision process; and on the other, a quantitative methodology, through an online survey of 6,500 individuals, which provided information through two separate univariate and bivariate descriptive analysis, of the individuals interviewed about the object of this study. To validate the models and contrast hypotheses, we have used the reliability analysis and validation of the selected measurement scales (Cronbach's Alpha); exploratory factor analysis to verify the dimensionality and convergent validity of the measurement scales; confirmatory factor analysis to validate the adequacy of the models of measurement proposed; logistic regression, to verify the validity of the general model of the probability of buying or not buying Fair Trade products; and multiple linear regression to test the validity of specific models in future purchase intention in the segments of buyers and non-buyers. To carry out these analyses, we used SPSS v21 software tools and AMOS. The principal conclusions of the investigation are: (1) the need to establish clear criteria which define who is who in the Fair Trade movement, its goals, objectives, the products they sell, as well as its operation and development in Spain; (2) that despite the great advantages and possibilities of Fair Trade, there is a lack of demand for these products by responsible consumers, mainly due to the lack of information-communication about the movement itself, and especially on the range of products, sales channels, pricing policies, communication policies, etc., and the need for these products to be available in places where consumers make their usual purchase; and (3) that Spanish Fair Trade must address a number of challenges such as: coordination between the different organizations involved in trade development; consumer awareness; creation of a brand image that defines in a clear and simple way what Fair Trade is; focus on the customer rather than the product; and expansion of the network of Fair Trade sales outlets to include the channels where consumers usually make their purchases.
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Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district?s board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south-eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district?s decisions. Key words: Segura Basin, stochastic recursive programming, water markets, water supply option contract, water supply risk.
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O objetivo deste estudo consistiu-se em analisar os fatores influentes no comportamento de compra industrial, na situação de decisão de crédito bancário em pequenas empresas. Para tanto, foram entregues questionários a doze empresas da indústria gráfica, selecionadas pelo número de empregados (de 20 a 100 - pequenas indústrias, segundo o critério do IBGE), localizadas no Distrito Federal e associadas ao sindicato da categoria. De acordo com resultados obtidos por meio do levantamento de campo, as conclusões desta pesquisa puderam ser exploradas tendo-se como base três pontos principais: a) os resultados relativos aos fatores influentes no comportamento do consumidor industrial, tais como os referentes a importância da localização geográfica do fornecedor, dos seus recursos tecnológicos e da redução, pelos compradores, dos riscos percebidos nas decisões de compras, dentre outros que mostraram-se condizentes com as pressuposições do modelo de comportamento do mercado industrial adotado; b) a discussão relativa à situação de decisão de crédito bancário, baseado na literatura pesquisada. De acordo com os resultados, puderam-se detalhar os aspectos relativos aos atributos dos bancos e do crédito, destacando-se, dentre outros, a importância da imagem da instituição financeira, da qualidade do gerente de contas e do custo dos empréstimos e financiamentos; c) as especificidades da pequena empresa, que puderam ser visualizadas nos resultados da pesquisa de campo como, por exemplo, a estratégia intuitiva e pouco formalizada, a situação extra-organizacional incontrolável e a racionalidade político-econômico-familiar do pequeno empresário.
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The Patten’s Theory of the Environment, supposes an impotent contribution to the Theoretical Ecology. The hypothesis of the duality of environments, the creaon and genon functions and the three developed propositions are so much of great importance in the field of the Applied Mathematical as Ecology. The authors have undertaken an amplification and revision of this theory, developing the following steps: 1) A theory of processes. 2) A definition of structural and behavioural functions. 3) A probabilistic definition of the environmental functions. In this paper the authors develop the theory of behavioural functions, begin the theory of environmental functions and give a complementary focus to the theory of processes that has been developed in precedent papers.
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Following study, participants received 2 tests. The 1st was a recognition test; the 2nd was designed to tap recollection. The objective was to examine performance on Test I conditional on Test 2 performance. In Experiment 1, contrary to process dissociation assumptions, exclusion errors better predicted subsequent recollection than did inclusion errors. In Experiments 2 and 3, with alternate questions posed on Test 2, words having high estimates of recollection with one question had high estimates of familiarity with the other question. Results supported the following: (a) the 2-test procedure has considerable potential for elucidating the relationship between recollection and familiarity; (b) there is substantial evidence for dependency between such processes when estimates are obtained using the process dissociation and remember-know procedures; and (c) order of information access appears to depend on the question posed to the memory system.
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Minimal representations are known to have no redundant elements, and are therefore of great importance. Based on the notions of performance and size indices and measures for process systems, the paper proposes conditions for a process model being minimal in a set of functionally equivalent models with respect to a size norm. Generalized versions of known procedures to obtain minimal process models for a given modelling goal, model reduction based on sensitivity analysis and incremental model building are proposed and discussed. The notions and procedures are illustrated and compared on a simple example, that of a simple nonlinear fermentation process with different modelling goals and on a case study of a heat exchanger modelling. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The aim of the study presented was to implement a process model to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a pilot-scale process for anaerobic two-stage digestion of sewage sludge. The model implemented was initiated to support experimental investigations of the anaerobic two-stage digestion process. The model concept implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB(TM)/Simulink(R) is a derivative of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) that has been developed by the IWA task group for mathematical modelling of anaerobic processes. In the present study the original model concept has been adapted and applied to replicate a two-stage digestion process. Testing procedures, including balance checks and 'benchmarking' tests were carried out to verify the accuracy of the implementation. These combined measures ensured a faultless model implementation without numerical inconsistencies. Parameters for both, the thermophilic and the mesophilic process stage, have been estimated successfully using data from lab-scale experiments described in literature. Due to the high number of parameters in the structured model, it was necessary to develop a customised procedure that limited the range of parameters to be estimated. The accuracy of the optimised parameter sets has been assessed against experimental data from pilot-scale experiments. Under these conditions, the model predicted reasonably well the dynamic behaviour of a two-stage digestion process in pilot scale. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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As process management projects have increased in size due to globalised and company-wide initiatives, a corresponding growth in the size of process modeling projects can be observed. Despite advances in languages, tools and methodologies, several aspects of these projects have been largely ignored by the academic community. This paper makes a first contribution to a potential research agenda in this field by defining the characteristics of large-scale process modeling projects and proposing a framework of related issues. These issues are derived from a semi -structured interview and six focus groups conducted in Australia, Germany and the USA with enterprise and modeling software vendors and customers. The focus groups confirm the existence of unresolved problems in business process modeling projects. The outcomes provide a research agenda which directs researchers into further studies in global process management, process model decomposition and the overall governance of process modeling projects. It is expected that this research agenda will provide guidance to researchers and practitioners by focusing on areas of high theoretical and practical relevance.
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In this paper, we present a top down approach for integrated process modelling and distributed process execution. The integrated process model can be utilized for global monitoring and visualization and distributed process models for local execution. Our main focus in this paper is the presentation of the approach to support automatic generation and linking of distributed process models from an integrated process definition.
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The successful restructuring of Chinese industries is of immense importance not only for the continued development of China but also to the stability of the world economy. The transformation of the Chinese wool textile industry illustrates well the many problems and pressures currently facing most Chinese industries. The Chinese wool textile industry has undergone major upheaval and restructuring in its drive to modernize and take advantage of developments in world textile markets. Macro level ownership and administrative reforms are well advanced as is the uptake of new technology and equipment. However, the changing market and institutional environment also demands an increasing level of sophistication in mill management decisions including product selection, input procurement, product pricing, investment appraisal, cost analysis and proactive identification of new market and growth opportunities. This paper outlines a series of analyses that have been integrated into a decision-making model designed to assist mill managers with these decisions. Features of the model include a whole-of-mill approach, a design based on existing mill structures and information systems, and the capacity for the model to be tailored to individual mills. All of these features facilitate the adoption of the model by time and resource constrained managers seeking to maintain the viability of their enterprises in the face of extremely dynamic market conditions.