Validation of multicriteria analysis models

Validation procedures play an important role in establishing the credibility of models, improving their relevance and acceptability. This article reviews the testing of models relevant to environmental and natural resource management with particular emphasis on models used in multicriteria analysis (MCA). Validation efforts for a model used in a MCA catchment management study in North Queensland, Australia, are presented. Determination of face validity is found to be a useful approach in evaluating this model, and sensitivity analysis is useful in checking the stability of the model. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extent and economic effect of heat loads on dairy cattle production in Australia

Objective To investigate the extent of heat load problems, caused by the combination of excessive temperature and humidity, in Holstein-Friesian cows in Australia. Also, to outline how milk production losses and consequent costs from this can be estimated and minimised. Procedures Long-term meteorological data for Australia were analysed to determine the distribution of hot conditions over space and time. Fifteen dairy production regions were identified for higher-resolution data analysis. Both the raw meteorological data and their integration into a temperature-humidity thermal index were compiled onto a computer program. This mapping software displays the distribution of climatic patterns, both Australia-wide and within the selected dairying regions. Graphical displays of the variation in historical records for 200 locations in the 15 dairying regions are also available. As a separate study, production data from research stations, on-farm trials and milk factory records were statistically analysed and correlated with the climatic indices, to estimate production losses due to hot conditions. Results Both milk yields and milk constituents declined with increases in the temperature-humidity index. The onset and rate of this decline are dependent on a number of factors, including location, level of production, adaptation, and management regime. These results have been integrated into a farm-level economic analysis for managers of dairy properties. Conclusion By considering the historical patterns of hot conditions over time and space, along with expected production losses, managers of dairy farms can now conduct an economic evaluation of investment strategies to alleviate heat loads. These strategies include the provision of sprinklers, shade structures, or combinations of these.

Do process modelling techniques get better? A comparative ontological analysis of BPMN

Current initiatives in the field of Business Process Management (BPM) strive for the development of a BPM standard notation by pushing the Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN). However, such a proposed standard notation needs to be carefully examined. Ontological analysis is an established theoretical approach to evaluating modelling techniques. This paper reports on the outcomes of an ontological analysis of BPMN and explores identified issues by reporting on interviews conducted with BPMN users in Australia. Complementing this analysis we consolidate our findings with previous ontological analyses of process modelling notations to deliver a comprehensive assessment of BPMN.

A new methodology for generation investment in the national electricity market of Australia

Market administrators hold the vital role of maintaining sufficient generation capacity in their respective electricity market. However without the jurisdiction to dictate the generator types, locations and timing of new generation, the reliability of the system may be compromised by delayed entry of new generation. This paper illustrates a new generation investment methodology that can effectively present expected returns from the pool market; while concurrently searching for the type and placement of a new generator to fulfil system reliability requirements.

Monitoring the condition of savanna riparian zones in Northern Australia using high spatial resolution imagery and a field based rapid assessment method

Government agencies responsible for riparian environments are assessing the combined utility of field survey and remote sensing for mapping and monitoring indicators of riparian zone condition. The objective of this work was to compare the Tropical Rapid Appraisal of Riparian Condition (TRARC) method to a satellite image based approach. TRARC was developed for rapid assessment of the environmental condition of savanna riparian zones. The comparison assessed mapping accuracy, representativeness of TRARC assessment, cost-effectiveness, and suitability for multi-temporal analysis. Two multi-spectral QuickBird images captured in 2004 and 2005 and coincident field data covering sections of the Daly River in the Northern Territory, Australia were used in this work. Both field and image data were processed to map riparian health indicators (RHIs) including percentage canopy cover, organic litter, canopy continuity, stream bank stability, and extent of tree clearing. Spectral vegetation indices, image segmentation and supervised classification were used to produce RHI maps. QuickBird image data were used to examine if the spatial distribution of TRARC transects provided a representative sample of ground based RHI measurements. Results showed that TRARC transects were required to cover at least 3% of the study area to obtain a representative sample. The mapping accuracy and costs of the image based approach were compared to those of the ground based TRARC approach. Results proved that TRARC was more cost-effective at smaller scales (1-100km), while image based assessment becomes more feasible at regional scales (100-1000km). Finally, the ability to use both the image and field based approaches for multi-temporal analysis of RHIs was assessed. Change detection analysis demonstrated that image data can provide detailed information on gradual change, while the TRARC method was only able to identify more gross scale changes. In conclusion, results from both methods were considered to complement each other if used at appropriate spatial scales.

(U-Th)/He and 40Ar/39Ar Geochronology of Weathering, Hamersley Province, Australia: Implications for weathering history and landscape Evolution

(U–Th)/He dating of goethite, when combined with quantification of diffusive 4He loss by the 4He/3He methodology, provides reliable corrected ages for minerals precipitated in weathering profiles. We have combined (U–Th)/He dating of supergene goethite with 40Ar/39Ar dating of supergene manganese oxides to study the weathering history and landscape evolution in the Hamersley Province, northwestern Australia. Incremental heating 40Ar/39Ar analysis of 187 grains of Mn oxides from 65 samples (44 hand specimens) collected from weathering profiles at seven field sites across the Hamersley Province yield precipitation ages ranging from 63.4 ± 0.9 to 1.5 ± 0.2 Ma. These results, combined with previous results of 40Ar/39Ar dating of Mn oxides (Vasconcelos, 1998 Vasconcelos, P.V., 1998. Unpub. report, pp. 1–278.Vasconcelos, 1998 and Cochrane, 2003), reveal a protracted and episodic history of weathering and landscape evolution, which was already ongoing in Late Cretaceous and spans the Palaeogene and Neogene. Seventy-three grains of goethite from 39 samples extracted from 21 hand specimens, collected from the same field sites where the Mn oxides originated, were dated by the (U–Th)/He method. Internally consistent (U–Th)/He ages, which range from 84.3 ± 12.2 to 3.3 ± 0.5 Ma, have been obtained for most samples when corrections are applied for 10% helium diffusive loss. The geochronological results obtained show remarkable similarity in the distribution of ages associated with supergene mineral precipitation. The widespread occurrence of iron oxides such as goethite in soils and weathering profiles and the successful application of (U–Th)/He dating of goethite offers great opportunities for extracting the wealth of palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental information recorded by these profiles on the surface of terrestrial planets such as Earth and Mars.