Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

Review of investment strategy, portfolio management, and scorecard based portfolio selection tool for direct property investments in Finland

The lack of research of private real estate is a well-known problem. Earlier studies have mostly concentrated on the USA or the UK. Therefore, this master thesis offers more information about the performance and risk associated with private real estate investments in Nordic countries, but especially in Finland. The structure of this master thesis is divided into two independent sections based on the research questions. In first section, database analysis is performed to assess risk-return ratio of direct real estate investment for Nordic countries. Risk-return ratios are also assessed for different property sectors and economic regions. Finally, review of diversification strategies based on property sectors and economic regions is performed. However, standard deviation itself is not usually sufficient method to evaluate riskiness of private real estate. There is demand for more explicit assessment of property risk. One solution is property risk scoring. In second section risk scorecard based tool is built to make different real estate comparable in terms of risk. In order to do this, nine real estate professionals were interviewed to enhance the structure of theory-based risk scorecard and to assess weights for different risk factors.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

The effects of derivative use on equity fund performance

Investing in mutual funds has become more popular than ever and the amount of money invested in mutual funds registered in Finland has hit its all-time high. Mutual funds provide a relatively low-cost method for private investors to invest in stock market and achieve diversified portfolios. In finance there is always a tradeoff between risk and return, where higher expected returns can usually be achieved only by taking higher risks. Diversifying the portfolio gets rid some of the risk but systematic risk cannot be diversified away. These risks can be managed by hedging the investments with derivatives. The use of derivatives should improve the performance of the portfolios using them compared to the funds that don’t. However, previous studies have shown that the risk exposure and return performance of derivative users does not considerably differ from nonusers. The purpose of this study is to examine how the use of derivatives affects the performance of equity funds. The funds studied were 155 equity funds registered in Finland in 2013. Empirical research was done by studying the derivative use of the funds during a 6-year period between 2008–2013. The performance of the funds was studied quantitatively by using several different performance measures used in mutual fund industry; Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, Jensen's alpha, Sortino Ratio, M2 and Omega Ratio. The effect of derivative use on funds' performance was studied by using a dummy variable and comparing performance measures of derivative-users and nonusers. The differences in performance measures between the two groups were analyzed with statistical tests. The hypothesis was that funds' derivative use should improve their performance relative to the funds that don't use them. The results of this study are in line with previous studies that state that the use of derivatives does not improve mutual funds' performance. When performance was measured with Jensen's alpha, funds that did not use derivatives performed better than the ones that used them. When measured with other performance measures, the results didn’t differ between two groups.

Searching for Accommodations within the Ontario Criminal Justice System for Persons with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder: Views of Social Service Agency and Justice Professionals

Although persons with intellectual disabilities have been conceptualized as having rights to equality in Canada and internationally, there continue to be gaps in the delivery of justice when they are involved within the criminal process. The literature consistently reported that individuals with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASDs) often experienced challenges within the justice system, such as difficulty understanding abstract legal concepts (Conry & Fast, 2009). In the Canadian legal system, accommodations are available to enable persons with disabilities to receive equal access to justice; however, how these are applied to persons with FASDs had not been fully explored in the literature. In this study, in-depth interviews were conducted with social service agency workers (n=10) and justice professionals (n=10) regarding their views of the challenges persons with FASDs experience in the justice system and their suggestions on the use of accommodations. The findings showed that while supports have been provided for individuals with intellectual disabilities, there has been a lack of specialized accommodations available specifically for individuals with FASDs in accessing their right to justice.

Equal Factor Equivalence in Economies with Multiple Public Goods.

We consider the problem of provisioon and cost-sharing of multiple public goods. the efficient equal factor equivalent allocation rule makes every agent indifferent between what he receives and the opportunity of choosing the bundle of public goods subject to the constraint of paying r times its cost, where r is set as low as possible.

Does Acculturation Equal Identification? Two Studies with Latin-American Immigrants

Partout, des millions d'immigrants doivent apprendre à interagir avec une nouvelle culture (acculturation) et à s’y identifier (identification). Toutefois, il existe un débat important sur la relation entre l’acculturation et l’identification. Certains chercheurs les considèrent comme étant des concepts identiques; d’autres argumentent qu'un lien directionnel unit ces concepts (c.-à-d. l'identification mène à l'acculturation, ou l'acculturation mène à l'identification). Toutefois, aucune étude n'a pas investigué la nature et la direction de leur relation. Afin de clarifier ces questions, trois modèles théoriques testeront la relation entre l’acculturation et l’identification et deux variables centrales à l’immigration, soit être forcé à immigrer et l’incohérence des valeurs. Dans le premier modèle, les variables d'immigration prédirent simultanément l'acculturation et l'identification. Le second modèle avance que les variables d'immigration mènent à l'identification, qui mène à l'acculturation. Le troisième modèle précis plutôt que les variables d'immigration prédisent l'acculturation, qui prédit l'identification. Le premier modèle propose que l'acculturation et l'identification sont le même concept, tandis que les second et troisième stipulent qu'ils sont différents (ainsi que la direction de leur relation). Ces modèles seront comparés afin d’examiner l'existence et la direction du lien qui unit l'acculturation et l'identification. Lors de la première étude, 146 immigrants latino-américains ont répondu à un questionnaire. Les analyses des pistes causales appuient le troisième modèle stipulant que l'acculturation mène à l'identification et, donc, qu'ils sont des concepts distincts. Les résultats ont été confirmés à l’aide d’une deuxième étude où 15 immigrants latino-américains ont passé une entrevue semi-structurée. Les implications théoriques et pratiques seront discutées.

Dynamic programming for stochastic target problems, Viscosity solutions and hedging in markets with Portfolio constraints and large investors

The purpose of this expository arti le is to present a self- ontained overview of some results on the hara terization of the optimal value fun tion of a sto hasti target problem as (dis ontinuous) vis osity solution of a ertain dynami programming PDE and its appli ation to the problem of hedging ontingent laims in the presen e of portfolio onstraints and large investors

English unlimited. A2, elementary : coursebook with e-portfolio DVD-ROM.

Curso de idiomas que se adapta a las necesidades específicas de los hablantes de español. Estas necesidades surgen a menudo debido a la interferencia con la lengua materna y se refieren a errores de gramática, vocabulario y pronunciación en el aprendizaje y el uso del inglés. Centrado en los objetivos de la vida real, prepara los alumnos a usar el inglés con confianza en la comunicación fuera del aula. El curso e-portfolio proporciona herramientas de referencia y pruebas de vocabulario, para que puedan consignar sus experiencias de aprendizaje y reflexionar sobre ellas marcándose objetivos y poder autoevaluarse.

The equity aspect within the framework of the assessment of the quality of Higher Education : developing indicators to identify students with a higher risk of failure at university with a view to improving equality of chances of succes

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Access, equity and the role of rights in health care

Modern health care rhetoric promotes choice and individual patient rights as dominant values. Yet we also accept that in any regime constrained by finite resources, difficult choices between patients are inevitable. How can we balance rights to liberty, on the one hand, with equity in the allocation of scarce resources on the other? For example, the duty of health authorities to allocate resources is a duty owed to the community as a whole, rather than to specific individuals. Macro-duties of this nature are founded on the notion of equity and fairness amongst individuals rather than personal liberty. They presume that if hard choices have to be made, they will be resolved according to fair and consistent principles which treat equal cases equally, and unequal cases unequally. In this paper, we argue for greater clarity and candour in the health care rights debate. With this in mind, we discuss (1) private and public rights, (2) negative and positive rights, (3) procedural and substantive rights, (4) sustainable health care rights and (5) the New Zealand booking system for prioritising access to elective services. This system aims to consider: individual need and ability to benefit alongside the resources made available to elective health services in an attempt to give the principles of equity practical effect. We describe a continuum on which the merits of those, sometimes competing, values-liberty and equity-can be evaluated and assessed.

Portfolio size and the reduction of dispersion: the case of the United Kingdom commercial real estate market

This paper investigates the potential benefits and limitations of equal and value-weighted diversification using as the example the UK institutional property market. To achieve this it uses the largest sample (392) of actual property returns that is currently available, over the period 1981 to 1996. To evaluate these issues two approaches are adopted; first, an analysis of the correlations within the sectors and regions and secondly simulations of property portfolios of increasing size constructed both naively and with value-weighting. Using these methods it is shown that the extent of possible risk reduction is limited because of the high positive correlations between assets in any portfolio, even when naively diversified. It is also shown that portfolios exhibit high levels of variability around the average risk, suggesting that previous work seriously understates the number of properties needed to achieve a satisfactory level of diversification. The results have implications for the development and maintenance of a property portfolio because they indicate that the achievable level of risk reduction depends upon the availability of assets, the weighting system used and the investor’s risk tolerance.

Impact of HPA nonlinearity on MIMO systems with quantized equal gain transmission

In this paper, we investigate the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems in the presence of nonlinear high-power amplifiers (HPAs). Due to the suboptimality of maximal ratio transmission/maximal ratio combining (MRT/MRC) under HPA nonlinearity, quantized equal gain transmission (QEGT) is suggested as a feasible TB scheme. The effect of HPA nonlinearity on the performance of MIMO QEGT/MRC is evaluated in terms of the average symbol error probability (SEP) and system capacity, considering transmission over uncorrelated quasi-static frequency-flat Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, such as the parameters of nonlinear HPA, cardinality of the beamforming weight vector codebook, and modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), on performance.

Twin experiments with the equivalent weights particle filter and HadCM3

This paper investigates the use of a particle filter for data assimilation with a full scale coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Synthetic twin experiments are performed to assess the performance of the equivalent weights filter in such a high-dimensional system. Artificial 2-dimensional sea surface temperature fields are used as observational data every day. Results are presented for different values of the free parameters in the method. Measures of the performance of the filter are root mean square errors, trajectories of individual variables in the model and rank histograms. Filter degeneracy is not observed and the performance of the filter is shown to depend on the ability to keep maximum spread in the ensemble.