Analysis on the connotation of probability in the artificial intelligence algorithm for economic decision making.

This paper analyzes the inner relations between classical sub-scheme probability and statistic probability, subjective probability and objective probability, prior probability and posterior probability, transition probability and probability of utility, and further analysis the goal, method, and its practical economic purpose which represent by these various probability from the perspective of mathematics, so as to deeply understand there connotation and its relation with economic decision making, thus will pave the route for scientific predication and decision making.

Espionage against Poland in the Documents and Analyses of the Polish Special Services (1944 - 1989) - as Illustrated by the Intelligence Activities of the USA

The text analyses the intelligence activity against Poland in the period 1944-1989. The paper also contains a case study, i.e. an analysis of the American intelligence service activity held against Poland. While examining the research thesis, the author used the documents and analyses prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. In order to best illustrate the point, the author presented a number of cases of persons who spied for the USA, which was possible thanks to the analysis of the training materials of the Ministry of Internal Affairs directed to the officers of the Security Service and the Citizens’ Militia. The text tackles the following issues: (1) to what extent did the character of the socio-political system influence the number of persons convicted for espionage against Poland in the period under examination?, (2) what was the level of interest of the foreign intelligence services in Poland before the year 1990?, (3) is it possible to indicate the specificity of the U.S. intelligence activity against Poland? 1) The analysis of data indicates that the period 1946-1956 witnessed a great number of convictions for espionage, which is often associated with the peculiar political situation in Poland of that time. Up to 1953, the countries of the Eastern bloc had reproduced the Stalin’s system, which only ceased due to the death of Stalin himself. Since then, the communist systems gradually transformed into the system of nomenklatura. Irrespective of these changes, Poland still witnessed a wave of repressions, which resulted from the threats continuously looming over the communist authorities – combating the anti-communist underground movement, fighting with the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the Polish government-in-exile, possible revisionism of borders, social discontent related to the socio-political reforms. Hence, a great number of convictions for espionage at that time could be ascribed to purely political sentences. Moreover, equally significant was the fact that the then judicial practice was preoccupied assessing negatively any contacts and relations with foreigners. This excessive number of convictions could ensue from other criminal-law provisions, which applied with respect to the crimes against the State, including espionage. What is also important is the fact that in the Stalin’s period the judiciary personnel acquired their skills and qualifications through intensive courses in law with the predominant spirit of the theory of evidence and law by Andrey Vyshinsky. Additionally, by the decree of 1944 the Penal Code of the Polish Armed Forces was introduced; the code envisaged the increase in the number of offences classified as penalised with death penalty, whereas the high treason was subject to the military jurisdiction (the civilians were prosecuted in military courts till 1955; the espionage, however, still stood under the military jurisdiction). In 1946, there was introduced the Decree on particularly dangerous crimes in the period of the State’s recovery, which was later called a Small Penal Code. 2) The interest that foreign intelligence services expressed in relation to Poland was similar to the one they had in all countries of Eastern and Central Europe. In the case of Poland, it should be noted that foreign intelligence services recruited Polish citizens who had previously stayed abroad and after WWII returned to their home country. The services also gathered information from Poles staying in immigrant camps (e.g. in FRG). The activity of the American intelligence service on the territory of FRG and West Berlin played a key role. The documents of the Ministry of Internal Affairs pointed to the global range of this activity, e.g. through the recruitment of Polish sailors in the ports of the Netherlands, Japan, etc. In line with the development in the 1970s, espionage, which had so far concentrated on the defence and strategic sectors, became focused on science and technology of the People’s Republic of Poland. The acquisition of collaborators in academic circles was much easier, as PRL opened to academic exchange. Due to the system of visas, the process of candidate selection for intelligence services (e.g. the American) began in embassies. In the 1980s, the activity of the foreign intelligence services concentrated on the specific political situation in Poland, i.e. the growing significance of the “Solidarity” social movement. 3) The specificity of the American intelligence activity against Poland was related to the composition of the residency staff, which was the largest in comparison to other Western countries. The wide range of these activities can be proved by the quantitative data of convictions for espionage in the years 1944-1984 (however, one has to bear in mind the factors mentioned earlier in the text, which led to the misinterpretation of these data). Analysing the data and the documents prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, one should treat them with caution, as, frequently, the Polish counter-intelligence service used to classify the ordinary diplomatic practice and any contacts with foreigners as espionage threats. It is clearly visible in the language of the training materials concerned with “secret service methods of the intelligence activity” as well as in the documents on operational activities of the Security Service in relation to foreigners. The level of interest the USA had in Poland was mirrored in the classification of diplomatic posts, according to which Warsaw occupied the second place (the so-called Group “B”) on the three-point scale. The CIA experienced spectacular defeats during their activity in Poland: supporting the Polish underground anti-communist organisation Freedom and Independence and the so-called Munich-Berg episode (both cases took place in the 1950s). The text focuses only on selected issues related to the espionage activities against Poland. Similarly, the analysis of the problem has been based on selected sources, which has limited the research scope - however, it was not the aim of the author to present the espionage activity against Poland in a comprehensive way. In order to assess the real threat posed by the espionage activity, one should analyse the case of persons convicted for espionage in the period 1944-1989, as the available quantitative data, mentioned in the text, cannot constitute an explicit benchmark for the scale of espionage activity. The inaccuracies in the interpretation of data and variables, which can affect the evaluation of this phenomenon, have been pointed out in the text.

Depression and physical disability in chronic pain: The mediation role of emotional intelligence and acceptance

Emotional intelligence (EI) and acceptance have previously been identified as potential factors in the adjustment to chronic pain (CP). This study examined the associations between CP experiences, depression, and physical disability. It further investigated the mediating effect of EI and acceptance in the relationship between CP experiences, depression, and physical disability and how this changes with the duration of the CP. Method: A cross-sectional design, employing validated questionnaires, was used to measure pain experience, physical disability, depression, EI, and acceptance in 133 CP patients. Results: All variables were found to be significantly associated in theoretically predicted ways. The relationship between CP experiences and depression was mediated by both factors, as high EI and acceptance promoted a decreased influence of pain on depression. By contrast, the relationship between CP experiences and physical disability was mediated by acceptance, but not by EI. Further, the temporal stability analysis of this mediation model showed that long-term CP patients are better able to make use of these factors. Conclusions: The relationship between the experience of pain and depression or physical disability seems to be significantly mediated by factors such as EI and acceptance. This study lends further support to the development of more encompassing models that take both control and non-control variables into account when conceptualising the adjustment to CP. Theoretical and clinical implications are discussed.

'Ephemerality’ in game development: opportunitiees and challenges

Ephemeral Computation (Eph-C) is a newly created computation paradigm, the purpose of which is to take advantage of the ephemeral nature (limited lifetime) of computational resources. First we speak of this new paradigm in general terms, then more specifically in terms of videogame development. We present possible applications and benefits for the main research fields associated with videogame development. This is a preliminary work which aims to investigate the possibilities of applying ephemeral computation to the products of the videogame industry. Therefore, as a preliminary work, it attempts to serve as the inspiration for other researchers or videogame developers.

Il passaggio dalla Business Intelligence all'Advanced Analytics: individuazione e analisi di un modello in merito all'influenza del lobbying nel sistema economico

I Big Data stanno guidando una rivoluzione globale. In tutti i settori, pubblici o privati, e le industrie quali Vendita al dettaglio, Sanità, Media e Trasporti, i Big Data stanno influenzando la vita di miliardi di persone. L’impatto dei Big Data è sostanziale, ma così discreto da passare inosservato alla maggior parte delle persone. Le applicazioni di Business Intelligence e Advanced Analytics vogliono studiare e trarre informazioni dai Big Data. Si studia il passaggio dalla prima alla seconda, mettendo in evidenza aspetti simili e differenze.

Identificación de las relaciones reales y posibles entre la administración basada en modelos, la ciencia computacional de la organización y la ingeniería emergente en el contexto de la gestión organizacional

Las teorías administrativas se han basado, casi sin excepción, en los fundamentos y los modelos de la ciencia clásica (particularmente, en los modelos de la física newtoniana). Sin embargo, las organizaciones actualmente se enfrentan a un mundo globalizado, plagado de información (y no necesariamente conocimiento), hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre, por lo que muchas de las teorías pueden mostrar limitaciones para las organizaciones. Y quizá no por la estructura, la lógica o el alcance de las mismas, sino por la falta de criterios que justifiquen su aplicación. En muchos casos, las organizaciones siguen utilizando la intuición, las suposiciones y las verdades a medias en la toma de decisiones. Este panorama pone de manifiesto dos hechos: de un lado, la necesidad de buscar un método que permita comprender las situaciones de cada organización para apoyar la toma de decisiones. De otro lado, la necesidad de potenciar la intuición con modelos y técnicas no tradicionales (usualmente provenientes o inspiradas por la ingeniería). Este trabajo busca anticipar los pilares de un posible método que permita apoyar la toma de decisiones por medio de la simulación de modelos computacionales, utilizando las posibles interacciones entre: la administración basada en modelos, la ciencia computacional de la organización y la ingeniería emergente.

Teacher’s Role in the Promotion of Two Emotional Intelligence Competencies in Fifth-Grade Children

This paper presents the results of a qualitative study aimed at analyzing the teacher’s role in promoting awareness and management of emotions in fifth-graders, as competencies of emotional intelligence. This resulted in a very significant study since, from the psychopedagogic perspective, it aims at breaking with the traditional role of teachers exclusively focused on transmitting knowledge, leaving aside the much-needed emotional support. Children demonstrated a poor vocabulary, as well as difficulty to identify some emotions and differentiate between them. This means a limitation for children to be aware of their own emotions and to control them.  As a conclusion, it is important to maximize the emotional capacities of students; it should be a primary task in the education centers, where teachers play a key role as a model and as a promoter of emotional intelligence.

Towards ubiquitous city : concept, planning, and experiences in the Republic of Korea

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) had occupied their position on knowledge management and are now evolving towards the era of self-intelligence (Klosterman, 2001). In the 21st century ICTs for urban development and planning are imperative to improve the quality of life and place. This includes the management of traffic, waste, electricity, sewerage and water quality, monitoring fire and crime, conserving renewable resources, and coordinating urban policies and programs for urban planners, civil engineers, and government officers and administrators. The handling of tasks in the field of urban management often requires complex, interdisciplinary knowledge as well as profound technical information. Most of the information has been compiled during the last few years in the form of manuals, reports, databases, and programs. However frequently, the existence of these information and services are either not known or they are not readily available to the people who need them. To provide urban administrators and the public with comprehensive information and services, various ICTs are being developed. In early 1990s Mark Weiser (1993) proposed Ubiquitous Computing project at the Xerox Palo Alto Research Centre in the US. He provides a vision of a built environment which digital networks link individual residents not only to other people but also to goods and services whenever and wherever they need (Mitchell, 1999). Since then the Republic of Korea (ROK) has been continuously developed national strategies for knowledge based urban development (KBUD) through the agenda of Cyber Korea, E-Korea and U-Korea. Among abovementioned agendas particularly the U-Korea agenda aims the convergence of ICTs and urban space for a prosperous urban and economic development. U-Korea strategies create a series of U-cities based on ubiquitous computing and ICTs by a means of providing ubiquitous city (U-city) infrastructure and services in urban space. The goals of U-city development is not only boosting the national economy but also creating value in knowledge based communities. It provides opportunity for both the central and local governments collaborate to U-city project, optimize information utilization, and minimize regional disparities. This chapter introduces the Korean-led U-city concept, planning, design schemes and management policies and discusses the implications of U-city concept in planning for KBUD.

A framework for analyzing system intelligence of the building control system : a study of the integrated building management system

The lack of satisfactory consensus for characterizing the system intelligence and structured analytical decision models has inhibited the developers and practitioners to understand and configure optimum intelligent building systems in a fully informed manner. So far, little research has been conducted in this aspect. This research is designed to identify the key intelligent indicators, and develop analytical models for computing the system intelligence score of smart building system in the intelligent building. The integrated building management system (IBMS) was used as an illustrative example to present a framework. The models presented in this study applied the system intelligence theory, and the conceptual analytical framework. A total of 16 key intelligent indicators were first identified from a general survey. Then, two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and analytic network process (ANP), were employed to develop the system intelligence analytical models. Top intelligence indicators of IBMS include: self-diagnostic of operation deviations; adaptive limiting control algorithm; and, year-round time schedule performance. The developed conceptual framework was then transformed to the practical model. The effectiveness of the practical model was evaluated by means of expert validation. The main contribution of this research is to promote understanding of the intelligent indicators, and to set the foundation for a systemic framework that provide developers and building stakeholders a consolidated inclusive tool for the system intelligence evaluation of the proposed components design configurations.