Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Kostenorientiertes Controlling von E-Learning-Plattformen mit dem TCO-Konzept

Zur administrativen Unterstützung von Lehr- und Lernprozessen werden E-Learning-Plattformen eingesetzt, die auf der Grundlage des Internet Funktionen zur Distribution von Lehr- und Lernmaterialien und zur Kommunikation zwischen Lehrenden und Lernenden anbieten. Zahlreiche wissenschaftliche Beiträge und Marktstudien beschäftigen sich mit der multikriteriellen Evaluation dieser Softwareprodukte zur informatorischen Fundierung strategischer Investitionsentscheidungen. Demgegenüber werden Instrumente zum kostenorientierten Controlling von E-Learning-Plattformen allenfalls marginal thematisiert. Dieser Beitrag greift daher das Konzept der Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) auf, das einen methodischen Ansatzpunkt zur Schaffung von Kostentransparenz von E-Learning-Plattformen bildet. Aufbauend auf den konzeptionellen Grundlagen werden Problembereiche und Anwendungspotenziale für das kostenorientierte Controlling von LMS identifiziert. Zur softwaregestützten Konstruktion und Analyse von TCO-Modellen wird das Open Source-Werkzeug TCO-Tool eingeführt und seine Anwendung anhand eines synthetischen Fallbeispiels erörtert. Abschließend erfolgt die Identifikation weiterführender Entwicklungsperspektiven des TCO-Konzepts im Kontext des E-Learning. Die dargestellte Thematik ist nicht nur von theoretischem Interesse, sondern adressiert auch den steigenden Bedarf von Akteuren aus der Bildungspraxis nach Instrumenten zur informatorischen Fundierung von Investitions- und Desinvestitionsentscheidungen im Umfeld des E-Learning.

Changing the Face of Traditional Education

At large, research universities, a common approach for teaching hundreds of undergraduate students at one time is the traditional, large, lecture-based course. Trends indicate that over the next decade there will be an increase in the number of large, campus courses being offered as well as larger enrollments in courses currently offered. As universities investigate alternative means to accommodate more students and their learning needs, Web-based instruction provides an attractive delivery mode for teaching large, on-campus courses. This article explores a theoretical approach regarding how Web-based instruction can be designed and developed to provide quality education for traditional, on-campus, undergraduate students. The academic debate over the merit of Web-based instruction for traditional, on-campus students has not been resolved. This study identifies and discusses instructional design theory for adapting a large, lecture-based course to the Web.

Total Cost of Services (TCS) von Learning Management-Systemen

Mit dem zunehmenden Einsatz von E-Learning-Plattformen rücken verstärkt Wirtschaftlichkeitsaspekte in den Betrachtungsmittelpunkt, die Methoden zur Ermittlung systembedingter Kosten voraussetzen. Durch die zunehmende Serviceorientierung und Integration von LMS mit bestehenden Komponenten der Anwendungsarchitektur sind hierfür jedoch neue Methoden notwendig, welche die Defizite traditioneller Total Cost of Ownership-Modelle abbauen. Einen Ansatzpunkt hierfür bietet das ITIL-Referenzmodell, das einen Rahmen für taktische und operative IT-Services vorgibt und somit die Grundlage für eine serviceorientierte Gesamtkostenermittlung in Form der Total Cost of Services (TCS) liefert.

Model Driven Architecture (MDA): Integration and Model Reuse for Open Source eLearning Platforms

Open Source (OS) community offers numerous eLearning platforms of both types: Learning Management Systems (LMS) and Learning Content Systems (LCS). General purpose OS intermediaries such as SourceForge, ObjectWeb, Apache or specialized intermediaries like CampusSource reduce the cost to locate such eLearning platforms. Still, it is impossible to directly compare the functionalities of those OS software products without performing detailed testing on each product. Some articles available from eLearning Wikipedia show comparisons between eLearning platforms which can help, but at the end they barely serve as documentation which are becoming out of date quickly [1]. The absence of integration activities between OS eLearning platforms - which are sometimes quite similar in terms of functionalities and implementation technologies - is sometimes critical since most of the OS projects possess small financial and human resources. This paper shows a possible solution for these barriers of OS eLearning platforms. We propose the Model Driven Architecture (MDA) concept to capture functionalities and to identify similarities between available OS eLearning platforms. This contribution evolved from a fruitful discussion at the 2nd CampusSource Developer Conference at the University of Muenster (27th August 2004).

Developing and Deploying an XML-based Learning Content Management System at the FernUniversität Hagen

This paper is a report about the FuXML project carried out at the FernUniversität Hagen. FuXML is a Learning Content Management System (LCMS) aimed at providing a practical and efficient solution for the issues attributed to authoring, maintenance, production and distribution of online and offline distance learning material. The paper presents the environment for which the system was conceived and describes the technical realisation. We discuss the reasons for specific implementation decisions and also address the integration of the system within the organisational and technical infrastructure of the university.

Teachers' professional development in a community

The goal of this article was to study teachers' professional development related to web-based learning in the context of the teacher community. The object was to learn in what kind of networks teachers share the knowledge of web-based learning and what are the factors in the community that support or challenge teachers professional development of web-based learning. The findings of the study revealed that there are teachers who are especially active, called the central actors in this study, in the teacher community who collaborate and share knowledge of web-based learning. These central actors share both technical and pedagogical knowledge of web-based learning in networks that include both internal and external relations in the community and involve people, artefacts and a variety of media. Furthermore, the central actors appear to bridge different fields of teaching expertise in their community. According to the central actors' experiences the important factors that support teachers' professional development of web-based learning in the community are; the possibility to learn from colleagues and from everyday working practices, an emotionally safe atmosphere, the leader's personal support and community-level commitment. Also, the flexibility in work planning, challenging pupils, shared lessons with colleagues, training events in an authentic work environment and colleagues' professionalism are considered meaningful for professional development. As challenges, the knowledge sharing of web-based learning in the community needs mutual interests, transactive memory, time and facilities, peer support, a safe atmosphere and meaningful pedagogical practices. On the basis of the findings of the study it is suggested that by intensive collaboration related to web-based learning it may be possible to break the boundaries of individual teachership and create such sociocultural activities which support collaborative professional development in the teacher community. Teachers' in-service training programs should be more sensitive to the culture of teacher communities and teachers' reciprocal relations. Further, teacher trainers should design teachers' in-service training of web-based learning in co-evolution with supporting networks which include the media and artefacts as well as people.

Adaptive Rückmeldungen im intelligenten Tutorensystem LARGO

Das intelligente Tutorensystem LARGO für die Rechtswissenschaften soll Jurastudenten helfen, Argumentationsstrategien zu lernen. Im verwendeten Ansatz werden Gerichtsprotokolle als Lernmaterialien verwendet: Studenten annotieren diese und erstellen graphische Repräsentationen des Argumentationsverlaufs. Das System kann dabei zur Reflexion über die von Anwälten vorgebrachten Argumente anregen und Lernende auf mögliche Schwächen in ihrer Analyse des Disputs hinweisen. Zur Erkennung von Schwächen verwendet das System Graphgrammatiken und kollaborative Filtermechanismen. Dieser Artikel stellt dar, wie in LARGO auf Basis der Bestimmung eines „Benutzungskontextes“ die Rückmeldungen im System benutzungsadaptiv gestaltet werden. Weiterhin diskutieren wir auf Basis der Ergebnisse einer kontrollierten Studie mit dem System, welche mit Jurastudierenden an der University of Pittsburgh stattfand, in wie weit der automatisch bestimmte Benutzungskontext zur Vorhersage von Lernerfolgen bei Studenten verwendbar ist.

A Socioeconomic Approach to the Development of E-Learning

A multitude of products, systems, approaches, views and notions characterize the field of e-learning. This article attempts to disentangle the field by using economic and sociological theories, theories of marketing management and strategy as well as practical experience gained by the author while working with leading edge suppliers of e-learning. On this basis, a distinction between knowledge creation e-learning and knowledge transfer e-learning is made. The various views are divided into four different ideal-typical paradigms, each with its own characteristics and limitations. Selecting the right paradigm to use in the development of an e-learning strategy may prove crucial to success. Implications for the development of an e-learning strategy in businesses and educational institutions are outlined.

Leveraging Informality Within eLearning

The next generation of learners expect more informality in learning. Formal learning systems such as traditional LMS systems no longer meet the needs of a generation of learners used to Twitter and Facebook, social networking and user-generated content. Regardless of this, however, formal content and learning models are still important and play a major role in educating learners, particularly in enterprise. The eLite project at DERI addressed this emerging dichotomy of learning styles, reconciling the traditional with the avant garde by using innovative technology to add informal learning capabilities to formal learning architectures.