The effect of project information on the accuracy of building price forecasts

A fundamental proposition is that the accuracy of the designer's tender price forecasts is positively correlated with the amount of information available for that project. The paper describes an empirical study of the effects of the quantity of information available on practicing Quantity Surveyors' forecasting accuracy. The methodology involved the surveyors repeatedly revising tender price forecasts on receipt of chunks of project information. Each of twelve surveyors undertook two projects and selected information chunks from a total of sixteen information types. The analysis indicated marked differences in accuracy between different project types and experts/non-experts. The expert surveyors' forecasts were not found to be significantly improved by information other than that of basic building type and size, even after eliminating project type effects. The expert surveyors' forecasts based on the knowledge of building type and size alone were, however, found to be of similar accuracy to that of average practitioners pricing full bills of quantities.

Construction Prices : the Market Effect

Teachers of construction economics and estimating have for a long time recognised that there is more to construction pricing than detailed calculation of costs (to the contractor). We always get to the point where we have to say "of course, experience or familiarity of the market is very important and this needs judgement, intuition, etc". Quite how important is the matter in construction pricing is not known and we tend to trivialise its effect. If judgement of the market has a minimal effect, little harm would be done, but if it is really important then some quite serious consequences arise which go well beyond the teaching environment. Major areas of concern for the quantity surveyor are in cost modelling and cost planning - neither of which pay any significant attention to the market effect. There are currently two schools of thought about the market effect issue. The first school is prepared to ignore possible effects until more is known. This may be called the pragmatic school. The second school exists solely to criticise the first school. We will call this the antagonistic school. Neither the pragmatic nor the antagonistic schools seem to be particularly keen to resolve the issue one way or the other. The founder and leader of the antagonistic school is Brian Fine whose paper in 1974 is still the basic text on the subject, and in which he coined the term 'socially acceptable' price to describe what we now recognise as the market effect. Mr Fine's argument was then, and is since, that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' costing and cost estimating process is such that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' cost that it logically leads to a market-orientated pricing approach. Very little factual evidence, however, seems to be available to support these arguments in any conclusive manner. A further, and more important point for the pragmatic school, is that, even if the market effect is as important as Mr Fine believes, there are no indications of how it can be measured, evaluated or predicted. Since 1974 evidence has been accumulating which tends to reinforce the antagonists' view. A review of the literature covering both contractors' and designers' estimates found many references to the use of value judgements in construction pricing (Ashworth & Skitmore, 1985), which supports the antagonistic view in implying the existence of uncertainty overload. The most convincing evidence emerged quite by accident in some research we recently completed with practicing quantity surveyors in estimating accuracy (Skitmore, 1985). In addition to demonstrating that individual quantity surveyors and certain types of buildings had significant effect on estimating accuracy, one surprise result was that only a very small amount of information was used by the most expert surveyors for relatively very accurate estimates. Only the type and size of building, it seemed, was really relevant in determining accuracy. More detailed information about the buildings' specification, and even a sight to the drawings, did not significantly improve their accuracy level. This seemed to offer clear evidence that the constructional aspects of the project were largely irrelevant and that the expert surveyors were somehow tuning in to the market price of the building. The obvious next step is to feed our expert surveyors with more relevant 'market' information in order to assess its effect. The problem with this is that our experts do not seem able to verbalise their requirements in this respect - a common occurrence in research of this nature. The lack of research into the nature of market effects on prices also means the literature provides little of benefit. Hence the need for this study. It was felt that a clearer picture of the nature of construction markets would be obtained in an environment where free enterprise was a truly ideological force. For this reason, the United States of America was chosen for the next stage of our investigations. Several people were interviewed in an informal and unstructured manner to elicit their views on the action of market forces on construction prices. Although a small number of people were involved, they were thought to be reasonably representative of knowledge in construction pricing. They were also very well able to articulate their views. Our initial reaction to the interviews was that our USA subjects held very close views to those held in the UK. However, detailed analysis revealed the existence of remarkably clear and consistent insights that would not have been obtained in the UK. Further evidence was also obtained from literature relating to the subject and some of the interviewees very kindly expanded on their views in later postal correspondence. We have now analysed all the evidence received and, although a great deal is of an anecdotal nature, we feel that our findings enable at least the basic nature of the subject to be understood and that the factors and their interrelationships can now be examined more formally in relation to construction price levels. I must express my gratitude to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' Educational Trust and the University of Salford's Department of Civil Engineering for collectively funding this study. My sincere thanks also go to our American participants who freely gave their time and valuable knowledge to us in our enquiries. Finally, I must record my thanks to Tim and Anne for their remarkable ability to produce an intelligible typescript from my unintelligible writing.

The momentum effect in competitions : field evidence from tennis matches

It is often suggested that there is a psychological advantage to be leading in a competition. It is, however, hard to identify such an effect econometrically. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design over a large dataset of tennis matches (N=634,095) the present paper exploits the randomised variation in first set results that occurs when the first set is decided by a close tie break (N=72,294). I find that winning the first set has a significant and strong effect on the result of the second set. A player who wins a close first set tie break will, on average, win one game more in the second set. I discuss the likely economic and psychological explanations of this phenomenon.

Body temperature and its effect on leukocyte mobilization, cytokines and markers of neutrophil activation during and after exercise

We investigated the influence of rectal temperature on the immune system during and after exercise. Ten well-trained male cyclists completed exercise trials (90 min cycling at 60% VO(2max) + 16.1 - km time trial) on three separate occasions: once in 18 degrees C and twice in 32 degrees C. Twenty minutes after the trials in 32 degrees C, the cyclists sat for approximately 20 min in cold water (14 degrees C) on one occasion, whereas on another occasion they sat at room temperature. Rectal temperature increased significantly during cycling in both conditions, and was significantly higher after cycling in 32 degrees C than in 18 degrees C (P < 0.05). Leukocyte counts increased significantly during cycling but did not differ between the conditions. The concentrations of serum interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8 and IL-10, plasma catecholamines, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, myeloperoxidase and calprotectin increased significantly following cycling in both conditions. The concentrations of serum IL-8 (25%), IL-10 (120%), IL-1 receptor antagonist (70%), tumour necrosis factor-alpha (17%), plasma myeloperoxidase (26%) and norepinephrine (130%) were significantly higher after cycling in 32 degrees C than in 18 degrees C. During recovery from exercise in 32 degrees C, rectal temperature was significantly lower in response to sitting in cold water than at room temperature. However, immune changes during 90 min of recovery did not differ significantly between sitting in cold water and at room temperature. The greater rise in rectal temperature during exercise in 32 degrees C increased the concentrations of serum IL-8, IL-10, IL-1ra, TNF-alpha and plasma myeloperoxidase, whereas the greater decline in rectal temperature during cold water immersion after exercise did not affect immune responses.

The effect of consecutive days of exercise on markers of oxidative stress

We examined the influence of 3 consecutive days of high-intensity cycling on blood and urinary markers of oxidative stress. Eight highly-trained male cyclists (VO2 max 76 +/- 4 mL.kg-1.min-1; mean +/- SD) completed an interval session (9 exercise bouts lasting 30 s each, at 150% peak power output) on day 1, followed by 2 laboratory-simulated 30 km time trials on days 2 and 3. The cyclists also completed a submaximal exercise trial matched to the interval session for oxygen consumption. Blood was collected pre- and post-exercise for the determination of malondialdehyde (MDA), total antioxidant status (TAS), vitamin E, and the antioxidant enzyme activity of superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase, while urine was collected for the determination of allantoin. There were significant increases in plasma MDA concentrations (p < 0.01), plasma TAS (p < 0.01), and urinary allantoin excretion (p < 0.01) following the high-intensity interval session on day 1, whereas plasma vitamin E concentration significantly decreased (p = 0.028). Post-exercise changes in plasma MDA (p = 0.036), TAS concentrations (p = 0.039), and urinary allantoin excretion (p = 0.031) were all significantly attenuated over the 3 consecutive days of exercise, whereas resting plasma TAS concentration was elevated. There were no significant changes in plasma MDA, TAS, or allantoin excretion following submaximal exercise and there were no significant changes in antioxidant enzyme activity over consecutive days of exercise or following submaximal exercise. Consecutive days of high-intensity exercise enhanced resting plasma TAS concentration and reduced the post-exercise increase in plasma MDA concentrations.

Tag-based interaction in online and mobile banking : a preliminary study of the effect on usability

In this paper we describe tag-based interaction afforded by a tag-based interface in online and mobile banking, and present our preliminary usability evaluation findings. We conducted a pilot usability study with a group of banking users by comparing the present 'conventional' interface and tag-based interface. The results show that participants perceive the tag-based interface as more usable in both online and mobile contexts. Participants also rated the tag-based interface better despite their unfamiliarity and perceived it as more user-friendly. Additionally, the results highlight that tag-based interaction is more effective in the mobile context especially to inexperienced mobile banking users. This in turn could have a positive effect on the adoption and acceptance of mobile banking in general and also specifically in Australia. We discuss our findings in more detail in the later sections of this paper and conclude with a discussion on future work.

Steps toward the validation of the Trendelenburg Test : the effect of experimentally reduced hip abductor muscle function on frontal plane mechanics

Objective: To investigate the validity of the Trendelenburg test (TT) using an ultrasound-guided nerve block (UNB) of the superior gluteal nerve and determine whether the reduction in hip abductor muscle (HABD) strength would result in the theorized mechanical compensatory strategies measured during the TT. Design: Quasi-experimental. Setting: Hospital. Participants: Convenience sample of 9 healthy men. Only participants with no current or previous injury to the lumbar spine, pelvis, or lower extremities, and no previous surgeries were included. Interventions: Ultrasound-guided nerve block. Main Outcome Measures: Hip abductor muscle strength (percent body weight [%BW]), contralateral pelvic drop (cPD), change in contralateral pelvic drop (Delta cPD), ipsilateral hip adduction, and ipsilateral trunk sway (TRUNK) measured in degrees. Results: The median age and weight of the participants were 31 years (interquartile range [IQR], 22-32 years) and 73 kg (IQR, 67-81 kg), respectively. An average 52% reduction of HABD strength (z = 2.36, P = 0.02) resulted after the UNB. No differences were found in cPD or Delta cPD (z = 0.01, P = 0.99, z = 20.67, P = 0.49, respectively). Individual changes in biomechanics showed no consistency between participants and nonsystematic changes across the group. One participant demonstrated the mechanical compensations described by Trendelenburg. Conclusions: The TT should not be used as a screening measure for HABD strength in populations demonstrating strength greater than 30% BW but should be reserved for use with populations with marked HABD weakness. Clinical Relevance: This study presents data regarding a critical level of HABD strength required to support the pelvis during the TT.

Steps towards the validation of the Trendelenburg test : The effect of experimentally reduced hip abductor muscle function on frontal plane mechanics

Introduction: The Trendelenburg Test (TT) is used to assess the functional strength of the hip abductor muscles (HABD), their ability to control frontal plane motion of the pelvis, and the ability of the lumbopelvic complex to transfer load into single leg stance. Rationale: Although a standard method to perform the test has been described for use within clinical populations, no study has directly investigated Trendelenburg’s hypotheses. Purpose: To investigate the validity of the TT using an ultrasound guided nerve block (UNB) of the superior gluteal nerve and determine whether the reduction in HABD strength would result in the theorized mechanical compensatory strategies measured during the TT. Methods: Quasi-experimental design using a convenience sample of nine healthy males. Only subjects with no current or previous injury to the lumbar spine, pelvis, or lower extremities, and no previous surgeries were included. Force dynamometry was used to evaluation HABD strength (%BW). 2D mechanics were used to evaluate contralateral pelvic drop (cMPD), change in contralateral pelvic drop (∆cMPD), ipsilateral hip adduction (iHADD) and ipsilateral trunk sway (TRUNK) measured in degrees (°). All measures were collected prior to and following a UNB on the superior gluteal nerve performed by an interventional radiologist. Results: Subjects’ age was median 31yrs (IQR:22-32yrs); and weight was median 73kg (IQR:67-81kg). An average 52% reduction of HABD strength (z=2.36,p=0.02) resulted following the UNB. No differences were found in cMPD or ∆cMPD (z=0.01,p= 0.99, z=-0.67,p=0.49). Individual changes in biomechanics show no consistency between subjects and non-systematic changes across the group. One subject demonstrated the mechanical compensations described by Trendelenburg. Discussion: The TT should not be used as screening measure for HABD strength in populations demonstrating strength greater than 30%BW but reserved for use with populations with marked HABD weakness. Importance: This study presents data regarding a critical level of HABD strength required to support the pelvis during the TT.

Field-effect transistors fabricated from diluted magnetic semiconductor colloidal nanowires

Field-effect transistors (FETs) fabricated from undoped and Co2+-doped CdSe colloidal nanowires show typical n-channel transistor behaviour with gate effect. Exposed to microscope light, a 10 times current enhancement is observed in the doped nanowire-based devices due to the significant modification of the electronic structure of CdSe nanowires induced by Co2+-doping, which is revealed by theoretical calculations from spin-polarized plane-wave density functional theory.

Bias in full effect

Interview and discussion on Robot University and AUTHENTIC IN ALL CAPS, transmedia creative works by Christy Dena.

The effect of exercise repetition on the frequency characteristics of motor output force : Implications for Achilles tendinopathy rehabilitation

Objectives: To investigate the frequency characteristics of the ground reaction force (GRF) recorded throughout the eccentric Achilles tendon rehabilitation programme described by Alfredson. Design: Controlled laboratory study, longitudinal. Methods: Nine healthy adult males performed six sets (15 repetitions per set) of eccentric ankle exercise. Ground reaction force was recorded throughout the exercise protocol. For each exercise repetition the frequency power spectrum of the resultant ground reaction force was calculated and normalised to total power. The magnitude of peak relative power within the 8-12 Hz bandwidth and the frequency at which this peak occurred was determined. Results: The magnitude of peak relative power within the 8-12 Hz bandwidth increased with each successive exercise set and following the 4th set (60 repetitions) of exercise the frequency at which peak relative power occurred shifted from 9 to 10 Hz. Conclusions: The increase in magnitude and frequency of ground reaction force vibrations with an increasing number of exercise repetitions is likely connected to changes in muscle activation with fatigue and tendon conditioning. This research illustrates the potential for the number of exercise repetitions performed to influence the tendons' mechanical environment, with implications for tendon remodelling and the clinical efficacy of eccentric rehabilitation programmes for Achilles tendinopathy.

How much is enough? The effect of exercise repetition on the force frequency characteristics of eccentric exercise used for tendinopathy rehabilitation

Introduction: Eccentric exercise (EE) is a commonly used treatment for Achilles tendinopathy. While vibrations in the 8–12 Hz frequency range generated during eccentric muscle actions have been put forward as a potential mechanism for the beneficial effect of EE, optimal loading parameters required to expedite recovery are currently unknown. Alfredson's original protocol employed 90 repetitions of eccentric loading, however abbreviated protocols consisting of fewer repetitions (typically 45) have been developed, albeit with less beneficial effect. Given that 8–12 Hz vibrations generated during isometric muscle actions have been previously shown to increase with fatigue, this research evaluated the effect of exercise repetition on motor output vibrations generated during EE by investigating the frequency characteristics of ground reaction force (GRF) recorded throughout the 90 repetitions of Alfredson's protocol. Methods: Nine healthy adult males performed six sets (15 repetitions per set) of eccentric ankle exercise. GRF was recorded at a frequency of 1000 Hz throughout the exercise protocol. The frequency power spectrum of the resultant GRF was calculated and normalized to total power. Relative spectral power was summed over 1 Hz widows within the frequency rage 7.5–11.5 Hz. The effect of each additional exercise set (15 repetitions) on the relative power within each widow was investigated using a general linear modelling approach. Results: The magnitude of peak relative power within the 7.5–11.5 Hz bandwidth increased across the six exercise sets from 0.03 in exercise set one to 0.12 in exercise set six (P < 0.05). Following the 4th set of exercise the frequency at which peak relative power occurred shifted from 9 to 10 Hz. Discussion: This study has demonstrated that successive repetitions of eccentric loading over six exercise sets results in an increase in the amplitude of motor output vibrations in the 7.5–11.5 Hz bandwidth, with an increase in the frequency of these vibrations occurring after the 4th set (60th repetition). These findings are consistent with findings from previous studies of muscle fatigue. Assuming that the magnitude and frequency of these vibrations represent important stimuli for tendon remodelling as hypothesized within the literature, the findings of this study question the role of abbreviated EE protocols and raise the question; can EE protocols for tendinopathy be optimized by performing eccentric loading to fatigue?

Effect of cumulative lightweight aggregate volume in concrete on its resistance to chloride-ion penetration

This paper presents an experimental study on the resistance of lightweight aggregate concretes to chloride-ion penetration in comparison to that of normal weight concrete of similar w/c. Salt ponding test (based on AASHTO T 259), rapid chloride permeability test (ASTM C 1202) and rapid migration test (NT Build 492) were carried out to evaluate the concrete resistance to the chloride-ion penetration. Results indicate that in general the resistance of the LWAC to the chloride-ion penetration was in the same order as that of NWAC of similar w/c. However, the increase in cumulative LWA volume and the incorporation of finer LWA particles led to higher charge passed, migration coefficient, and diffusion coefficient. Since the LWACs had lower 28-day compressive strength compared with that of the NWAC of similar w/c, the LWACs may have equal or better resistance to the chloride-ion penetration compared with the NWAC of equivalent strength. The trend of the resistance of concretes to chloride-ion penetration determined by the three test methods was reasonably consistent although there were some discrepancies due to different test methods.

The effect of testing protocol on immature bovine thoracic spine segment stiffness

Introduction. In vitro spine biomechanical testing has been central to many advances in understanding the physiology and pathology of the human spine. Owing to the difficulty in obtaining sufficient numbers of human samples to conduct these studies, animal spines have been accepted as a substitute model. However, it is difficult to compare results from different studies, as they use different preparation, testing and data collection methods. The aim of this study was to identify the effect of repeated cyclic loading on bovine spine segment stiffness. It also aimed to quantify the effect of multiple freeze-thaw sequences, as many tests would be difficult to complete in a single session [1-3]. Materials and Methods. Thoracic spines from 6-8 week old calves were used. Each spine was dissected and divided into motion segments including levels T4-T11 (n=28). These were divided into two equal groups. Each segment was potted in polymethylemethacrylate. An Instron Biaxial materials testing machine with a custom made jig was used for testing. The segments were tested in flexion/extension, lateral bending and axial rotation at 37 degrees C and 100% humidity, using moment control to a maximum plus/minus 1.75 Nm with a loading rate of 0.3 Nm per second. Group (A) were tested with continuous repeated cyclic loading for 500 cycles with data recorded at cycles 3, 5, 10, 25, 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500. Group (B) were tested with 10 load cycles after each of 5 freeze thaw sequences. Data was collected from the tenth load cycle after each sequence. Statistical analysis of the data was performed using paired samples t-tests, ANOVA and generalized estimating equations. Results. The data were confirmed as having a normal distribution. 1. There were significant reductions in mean stiffness in flexion/extension (-20%; P=0.001) and lateral bending (-17%; P=0.009) over the 500 load cycles. However, there was no statistically significant change in axial rotation (P=0.152) 2. There was no statistically significant difference between mean stiffness over the five freeze-thaw sequences in flexion/extension (p=0.879) and axial rotation (p=0.07). However, there was a significant reduction in stiffness in lateral bending (-26%; p=0.007) Conclusion. Biomechanical testing of immature bovine spine motion segments requires careful interpretation. The effect of the number of load cycles as well as the number of freeze-thaw cycles on the stiffness of the motion segments depends on the axis of main movement.

The effect of juice composition on the scaling rate and scale composition in sugar mill evaporators

To date, the formation of deposits on heat exchanger surfaces is the least understood problem in the design of heat exchangers for processing industries. Dr East has related the structure of the deposits to solution composition and has developed predictive models for composite fouling of calcium oxalate and silica in sugar factory evaporators.