948 resultados para deterministic safety analysis


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The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

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Shrimp Aquaculture has provided tremendous opportunity for the economic and social upliftment of rural communities in the coastal areas of our country Over a hundred thousand farmers, of whom about 90% belong to the small and marginal category, are engaged in shrimp farming. Penaeus monodon is the most predominant cultured species in India which is mainly exported to highly sophisticated, quality and safety conscious world markets. Food safety has been of concem to humankind since the dawn of history and the concern about food safety resulted in the evolution of a cost effective, food safety assurance method, the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP). Considering the major contribution of cultured Penaeus monodon to the total shrimp production and the economic losses encountered due to disease outbreak and also because traditional methods of quality control and end point inspection cannot guarantee the safety of our cultured seafood products, it is essential that science based preventive approaches like HACCP and Pre requisite Programmes (PRP) be implemented in our shrimp farming operations. PRP is considered as a support system which provides a solid foundation for HACCP. The safety of postlarvae (PL) supplied for brackish water shrimp farming has also become an issue of concern over the past few years. The quality and safety of hatchery produced seeds have been deteriorating and disease outbreaks have become very common in hatcheries. It is in this context that the necessity for following strict quarantine measures with standards and code of practices becomes significant. Though there were a lot of hue and cry on the need for extending the focus of seafood safety assurance from processing and exporting to the pre-harvest and hatchery rearing phases, an experimental move in this direction has been rare or nil. An integrated management system only can assure the effective control of the quality, hygiene and safety related issues. This study therefore aims at designing a safety and quality management system model for implementation in shrimp farming and hatchery operations by linking the concepts of HACCP and PRP.

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Occupational stress is becoming a major issue in both corporate and social agenda .In industrialized countries, there have been quite dramatic changes in the conditions at work, during the last decade ,caused by economic, social and technical development. As a consequence, the people today at work are exposed to high quantitative and qualitative demands as well as hard competition caused by global economy. A recent report says that ailments due to work related stress is likely to cost India’s exchequer around 72000 crores between 2009 and 2015. Though India is a fast developing country, it is yet to create facilities to mitigate the adverse effects of work stress, more over only little efforts have been made to assess the work related stress.In the absence of well defined standards to assess the work related stress in India, an attempt is made in this direction to develop the factors for the evaluation of work stress. Accordingly, with the help of existing literature and in consultation with the safety experts, seven factors for the evaluation of work stress is developed. An instrument ( Questionnaire) was developed using these seven factors for the evaluation of work stress .The validity , and unidimensionality of the questionnaire was ensured by confirmatory factor analysis. The reliability of the questionnaire was ensured before administration. While analyzing the relation ship between the variables, it is noted that no relationship exists between them, and hence the above factors are treated as independent factors/ variables for the purpose of research .Initially five profit making manufacturing industries, under public sector in the state of Kerala, were selected for the study. The influence of factors responsible for work stress is analyzed in these industries. These industries were classified in to two types, namely chemical and heavy engineering ,based on the product manufactured and work environment and the analysis is further carried out for these two categories.The variation of work stress with different age , designation and experience of the employees are analyzed by means of one-way ANOVA. Further three different type of modelling of work stress, namely factor modelling, structural equation modelling and multinomial logistic regression modelling was done to analyze the association of factors responsible for work stress. All these models are found equally good in predicting the work stress.The present study indicates that work stress exists among the employees in public sector industries in Kerala. Employees belonging to age group 40-45yrs and experience groups 15-20yrs had relatively higher work demand ,low job control, and low support at work. Low job control was noted among lower designation levels, particularly at the worker level in these industries. Hence the instrument developed using the seven factors namely demand, control, manager support, peer support, relationship, role and change can be effectively used for the evaluation of work stress in industries.

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Data centre is a centralized repository,either physical or virtual,for the storage,management and dissemination of data and information organized around a particular body and nerve centre of the present IT revolution.Data centre are expected to serve uniinterruptedly round the year enabling them to perform their functions,it consumes enormous energy in the present scenario.Tremendous growth in the demand from IT Industry made it customary to develop newer technologies for the better operation of data centre.Energy conservation activities in data centre mainly concentrate on the air conditioning system since it is the major mechanical sub-system which consumes considerable share of the total power consumption of the data centre.The data centre energy matrix is best represented by power utilization efficiency(PUE),which is defined as the ratio of the total facility power to the IT equipment power.Its value will be greater than one and a large value of PUE indicates that the sub-systems draw more power from the facility and the performance of the data will be poor from the stand point of energy conservation. PUE values of 1.4 to 1.6 are acievable by proper design and management techniques.Optimizing the air conditioning systems brings enormous opportunity in bringing down the PUE value.The air conditioning system can be optimized by two approaches namely,thermal management and air flow management.thermal management systems are now introduced by some companies but they are highly sophisticated and costly and do not catch much attention in the thumb rules.

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Natural systems are inherently non linear. Recurrent behaviours are typical of natural systems. Recurrence is a fundamental property of non linear dynamical systems which can be exploited to characterize the system behaviour effectively. Cross recurrence based analysis of sensor signals from non linear dynamical system is presented in this thesis. The mutual dependency among relatively independent components of a system is referred as coupling. The analysis is done for a mechanically coupled system specifically designed for conducting experiment. Further, cross recurrence method is extended to the actual machining process in a lathe to characterize the chatter during turning. The result is verified by permutation entropy method. Conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviours associated with the dynamical process. Hence any effective feature extraction methodologies should invariably gather information thorough nonlinear time series analysis. The sensor signals from the dynamical system normally contain noise and non stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible extent, this work adopts the cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) methodology since it is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals. The study reveals that the CRQA is capable of characterizing even weak coupling among system signals. It also divulges the dependence of certain CRQA variables like percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy to chatter unambiguously. The surrogate data test shows that the results obtained by CRQA are the true properties of the temporal evolution of the dynamics and contain a degree of deterministic structure. The results are verified using permutation entropy (PE) to detect the onset of chatter from the time series. The present study ascertains that this CRP based methodology is capable of recognizing the transition from regular cutting to the chatter cutting irrespective of the machining parameters or work piece material. The results establish this methodology to be feasible for detection of chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe.

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This work identifies the importance of plenum pressure on the performance of the data centre. The present methodology followed in the industry considers the pressure drop across the tile as a dependant variable, but it is shown in this work that this is the only one independent variable that is responsible for the entire flow dynamics in the data centre, and any design or assessment procedure must consider the pressure difference across the tile as the primary independent variable. This concept is further explained by the studies on the effect of dampers on the flow characteristics. The dampers have found to introduce an additional pressure drop there by reducing the effective pressure drop across the tile. The effect of damper is to change the flow both in quantitative and qualitative aspects. But the effect of damper on the flow in the quantitative aspect is only considered while using the damper as an aid for capacity control. Results from the present study suggest that the use of dampers must be avoided in data centre and well designed tiles which give required flow rates must be used in the appropriate locations. In the present study the effect of hot air recirculation is studied with suitable assumptions. It identifies that, the pressure drop across the tile is a dominant parameter which governs the recirculation. The rack suction pressure of the hardware along with the pressure drop across the tile determines the point of recirculation in the cold aisle. The positioning of hardware in the racks play an important role in controlling the recirculation point. The present study is thus helpful in the design of data centre air flow, based on the theory of jets. The air flow can be modelled both quantitatively and qualitatively based on the results.

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The thesis begins with a review of basic elements of general theory of relativity (GTR) which forms the basis for the theoretical interpretation of the observations in cosmology. The first chapter also discusses the standard model in cosmology, namely the Friedmann model, its predictions and problems. We have also made a brief discussion on fractals and inflation of the early universe in the first chapter. In the second chapter we discuss the formulation of a new approach to cosmology namely a stochastic approach. In this model, the dynam ics of the early universe is described by a set of non-deterministic, Langevin type equations and we derive the solutions using the Fokker—Planck formalism. Here we demonstrate how the problems with the standard model, can be eliminated by introducing the idea of stochastic fluctuations in the early universe. Many recent observations indicate that the present universe may be approximated by a many component fluid and we assume that only the total energy density is conserved. This, in turn, leads to energy transfer between different components of the cosmic fluid and fluctuations in such energy transfer can certainly induce fluctuations in the mean to factor in the equation of state p = wp, resulting in a fluctuating expansion rate for the universe. The third chapter discusses the stochastic evolution of the cosmological parameters in the early universe, using the new approach. The penultimate chapter is about the refinements to be made in the present model, by means of a new deterministic model The concluding chapter presents a discussion on other problems with the conventional cosmology, like fractal correlation of galactic distribution. The author attempts an explanation for this problem using the stochastic approach.

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Nature is full of phenomena which we call "chaotic", the weather being a prime example. What we mean by this is that we cannot predict it to any significant accuracy, either because the system is inherently complex, or because some of the governing factors are not deterministic. However, during recent years it has become clear that random behaviour can occur even in very simple systems with very few number of degrees of freedom, without any need for complexity or indeterminacy. The discovery that chaos can be generated even with the help of systems having completely deterministic rules - often models of natural phenomena - has stimulated a lo; of research interest recently. Not that this chaos has no underlying order, but it is of a subtle kind, that has taken a great deal of ingenuity to unravel. In the present thesis, the author introduce a new nonlinear model, a ‘modulated’ logistic map, and analyse it from the view point of ‘deterministic chaos‘.

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In the present study the effect of hot air recirculation is studied with suitable assumptions. It identifies that, the pressure drop across the tile is a dominant parameter which governs the recirculation. The rack suction pressure of the hardware along with the pressure drop across the tile determines the point of recirculation in the cold aisle. The positioning of hardware in the racks play an important role in controlling the recirculation point. The present study is thus helpful in the design of data centre air flow, based on the theory of jets. The air flow can be modelled both quantitatively and qualitatively based on the results

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The regional population growth in West Africa, and especially its urban centers, will bring about new and critical challenges for urban development policy, especially in terms of ensuring food security and providing employment for the growing population. (Peri-) urban livestock and vegetable production systems, which can contribute significantly to these endeavours, are limited by various constraints, amongst them limited access to expensive production factors and their (in)efficient use. To achieve sustainable production systems with low consumer health risks, that can meet the urban increased demand, this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative (peri-) urban livestock production systems in three West African cities, and investigated potential health risks for consumers ensuing from there. The field study, which was conducted during July 2007 to December 2009, undertook a comparative analysis of (peri-) urban livestock production strategies across 210 livestock keeping households (HH) in the three West African cities of Kano/Nigeria (84 HH), Bobo Dioulasso/Burkina Faso (63 HH) and Sikasso/Mali (63 HH). These livestock enterprises were belonging to the following three farm types: commercial gardening plus field crops and livestock (cGCL; 88 HH), commercial livestock plus subsistence field cropping (cLsC; 109 HH) and commercial gardening plus semi-commercial livestock (cGscL; 13 HH) which had been classified in a preceding study; they represented the diversity of (peri-) urban livestock production systems in West Africa. In the study on the efficiency of ruminant livestock production, lactating cowsand sheep herd units were differentiated based on whether feed supplements were offered to the animals at the homestead (Go: grazing only; Gsf: mainly grazing plus some supplement feeding). Inflows and outflows of nutrients were quantified in these herds during 18 months, and the effects of seasonal variations in nutrient availability on animals’ productivity and reproductive performance was determined in Sikasso. To assess the safety of animal products and vegetables, contamination sources of irrigated lettuce and milk with microbiological contaminants, and of tomato and cabbage with pesticide residues in (peri-) urban agriculture systems of Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso were characterized at three occasions in 2009. Samples of irrigation water, organic fertilizer and ix lettuce were collected in 6 gardens, and samples of cabbage and tomato in 12 gardens; raw and curdled milk were sampled in 6 dairy herds. Information on health risks for consumers of such foodstuffs was obtained from 11 health centers in Sikasso. In (peri-) urban livestock production systems, sheep and goats dominated (P<0.001) in Kano compared to Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso, while cattle and poultry were more frequent (P<0.001) in Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso than in Kano. Across cities, ruminant feeding relied on grazing and homestead supplementation with fresh grasses, crop residues, cereal brans and cotton seed cake; cereal grains and brans were the major ingredients of poultry feeds. There was little association of gardens and livestock; likewise field cropping and livestock were rarely integrated. No relation existed between the education of the HH head and the adoption of improved management practices (P>0.05), but the proportion of HH heads with a long-term experience in (peri-) urban agriculture was higher in Kano and in Bobo Dioulasso than in Sikasso (P<0.001). Cattle and sheep fetched highest market prices in Kano; unit prices for goats and chicken were highest in Sikasso. Animal inflow, outflow and dairy herd growth rates were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the Gsf than in the Go cattle herds. Maize bran and cottonseed expeller were the main feeds offered to Gsf cows as dry-season supplement, while Gsf sheep received maize bran, fresh grasses and cowpea pods. The short periodic transhumance of Go dairy cows help them maintaining their live weight, whereas Gsf cows lost weight during the dry season despite supplement feeding at a rate of 1506 g dry matter per cow and day, resulting in low productivity and reproductive performance. The daily live weight gains of calves and lambs, respectively, were low and not significantly different between the Go and the Gsf system. However, the average live weight gains of lambs were significantly higher in the dry season (P<0.05) than in the rainy season because of the high pressure of gastrointestinal parasites and of Trypanosoma sp. In consequence, 47% of the sheep leaving the Go and Gsf herds died due to diseases during the study period. Thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli contamination levels of irrigation water significantly exceeded WHO recommendations for the unrestricted irrigation of vegetables consumed raw. Microbial contamination levels of lettuce at the farm gate and the market place in Bobo Dioulasso and at the farm gate in Sikasso were higher than at the market place in Sikasso (P<0.05). Pesticide residues were detected in only one cabbage and one tomato sample and were below the maximum residue limit for consumption. Counts of thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli were higher in curdled than in raw milk (P<0.05). From 2006 to x 2009, cases of diarrhea/vomiting and typhoid fever had increased by 11% and 48%, respectively, in Sikasso. For ensuring economically successful and ecologically viable (peri-) urban livestock husbandry and food safety of (peri-) urban foodstuffs of animal and plant origin, the dissemination and adoption of improved feeding practices, livestock healthcare and dung management are key. In addition, measures fostering the safety of animal products and vegetables including the appropriate use of wastewater in (peri-) urban agriculture, restriction to approve vegetable pesticides and the respect of their latency periods, and passing and enforcement of safety laws is required. Finally, the incorporation of environmentally sound (peri-) urban agriculture in urban planning by policy makers, public and private extension agencies and the urban farmers themselves is of utmost importance. To enable an efficient (peri-) urban livestock production in the future, research should concentrate on cost-effective feeding systems that allow meeting the animals’ requirement for production and reproduction. Thereby focus should be laid on the use of crop-residues and leguminous forages. The improvement of the milk production potential through crossbreeding of local cattle breeds with exotic breeds known for their high milk yield might be an accompanying option, but it needs careful supervision to prevent the loss of the local trypanotolerant purebreds.

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In Germany and other European countries piglets are routinely castrated in order to avoid the occurrence of boar taint, an off-flavour and off-odour of pork. Sensory perception of boar taint varies; however, it is regarded as very unpleasant by many people. Surgical castration which is an effective means against boar taint has commonly been performed without anaesthesia or analgesia within the piglets’ first seven days of life. Piglet castration without anaesthesia has been heavily criticised, as the assumption that young piglets perceive less pain than older animals cannot be supported by scientific evidence. Consequently, surgical castration is only allowed with anaesthesia and/or analgesia in organic farming throughout the European Union since January 2012. Abandoning piglet castration without pain relief requires the implementation of alternative methods which improve animal welfare while maintaining sensory meat quality. There are three relevant alternatives: castration with anaesthesia and/or analgesia to reduce pain, a vaccination against boar taint (immunocastration) and the fattening of uncastrated male pigs (fattening of boars) combined with measures to reduce and detect boar taint in meat. Consumers’ attitudes and opinions regarding the alternatives are an important factor with regard to the implementation of alternatives, as they are finally supposed to buy the meat. The objective of this dissertation was to explore organic consumers’ attitudes, preferences and willingness-to-pay regarding piglet castration without pain relief and the three alternatives. Important aspects for the evaluation of the alternatives and influencing factors (e.g. information, taste) on preferences and willingness-to-pay should also be identified. In autumn 2009 nine focus group discussions were conducted each followed by a Vickrey auction including a tasting of boar salami. Overall, 89 consumers of organic pork participated in the study. Information on piglet castration and alternatives (in three variants) was provided as a basis for discussion. The focus group data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. In order to compare the focus group results with those from the auctions, an innovative approach applying an adapted scoring model to further analyse the data set was used. The majority of participants were not aware that piglets are castrated without anaesthesia in organic farming. They reacted shocked and disappointed on learning about this practice which did not fit into their image of animal welfare standards in organic farming. Overall, the results show, that for consumers of organic pork castration with anaesthesia and analgesia as well as the fattening of boars may be acceptable alternatives in organic farming. Considering the strong food safety concerns regarding immunocastration, acceptance of this alternative may be questioned. Communication regarding alternatives to piglet castration without anaesthesia and analgesia should take into account that the relevance of the aspects animal welfare, food safety, taste and costs differs between alternatives. Furthermore, it seems advisable not to address an unappetizing topic like piglet castration directly at the point of sale so as not to deter consumers from buying organic pork. The issue of piglet castration demonstrates exemplarily that it is important for the organic sector to implement and maintain high animal welfare standards and communicate them in an appropriate way, thereby trying to prevent strong discrepancies between consumers’ expectations regarding animal husbandry in organic farming and actual conditions. So, disappointment of consumers and a loss of image due to negative reports about animal welfare issues can be avoided.

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Objectives: to evaluate the efficacy and safety of human immunoglobulin versus plasmapheresis in the management of autoimmune neurologic diseases. Likewise, length of hospital stay and duration of ventilator support were compared. Methods: Randomized controlled trials and analytical observational studies of more than 10 cases, were reviewed. Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, HINARI Ovid, the Database of abstracts of reviews of effectiveness and the Economic evaluation Database were searched as data source. Reference lists were examined for further relevant articles. A random-effect model was used to derive a pooled risk ratio. Results: 725 articles were found and 27 met the criteria for a population studied of 4717 cases: 14 articles were about Guillain Barré syndrome, 10 of Myasthenia Gravis, one of Sydenham Chorea, one of Chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, and one of PANDAS. No evidence was found in favor of any of the two treatments as regards effectiveness (OR 0.94, IC 0.63 – 1.41, p= 0.77) or ventilator support time; IGIV had a significant better safety profile than plasmapheresis (OR 0.70, IC 0.51 – 0.96, p= 0.03) and patients needed less time of hospital stay (p=0.03). Conclusions: There is no evidence for superiority in the effectiveness of immunoglobulin or plasmapheresis in the management of autoimmune neurologic diseases. Nevertheless, patients treated with immunoglobulin have statistically significant less adverse effects, a shorter hospital stay and a tendency of less ventilator support time. These premises could lead to fewer costs for health services but an economic study should be done.

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Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of ‘safety’ and broad issues of ‘production’ or ‘performance’. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain – rail systems engineering work.

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Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

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Accurately and reliably identifying the actual number of clusters present with a dataset of gene expression profiles, when no additional information on cluster structure is available, is a problem addressed by few algorithms. GeneMCL transforms microarray analysis data into a graph consisting of nodes connected by edges, where the nodes represent genes, and the edges represent the similarity in expression of those genes, as given by a proximity measurement. This measurement is taken to be the Pearson correlation coefficient combined with a local non-linear rescaling step. The resulting graph is input to the Markov Cluster (MCL) algorithm, which is an elegant, deterministic, non-specific and scalable method, which models stochastic flow through the graph. The algorithm is inherently affected by any cluster structure present, and rapidly decomposes a graph into cohesive clusters. The potential of the GeneMCL algorithm is demonstrated with a 5730 gene subset (IGS) of the Van't Veer breast cancer database, for which the clusterings are shown to reflect underlying biological mechanisms. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.