New perspectives on A.I. in sentencing. Human decision-making between risk assessment tools and protection of humans rights.

The aim of this thesis is to investigate a field that until a few years ago was foreign to and distant from the penal system. The purpose of this undertaking is to account for the role that technology could plays in the Italian Criminal Law system. More specifically, this thesis attempts to scrutinize a very intricate phase of adjudication. After deciding on the type of an individual's liability, a judge must decide on the severity of the penalty. This type of decision implies a prognostic assessment that looks to the future. It is precisely in this field and in prognostic assessments that, as has already been anticipated in the United, instruments and processes are inserted in the pre-trial but also in the decision-making phase. In this contribution, we attempt to describe the current state of this field, trying, as a matter of method, to select the most relevant or most used tools. Using comparative and qualitative methods, the uses of some of these instruments in the supranational legal system are analyzed. Focusing attention on the Italian system, an attempt was made to investigate the nature of the element of an individual's ‘social dangerousness’ (pericolosità sociale) and capacity to commit offences, types of assessments that are fundamental in our system because they are part of various types of decisions, including the choice of the best sanctioning treatment. It was decided to turn our attention to this latter field because it is believed that the judge does not always have the time, the means and the ability to assess all the elements of a subject and identify the best 'individualizing' treatment in order to fully realize the function of Article 27, paragraph 3 of the Constitution.

A framework for the environmental risk assessment of offshore carbon storage in CCS systems

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents an interesting climate mitigation option, however, as for any other human activity, there is the impelling need to assess and manage the associated risks. This study specifically addresses the marine environmental risk posed by CO2 leakages associated to CCS subsea engineering system, meant as offshore pipelines and injection / plugged and abandoned wells. The aim of this thesis work is to start approaching the development of a complete and standardized practical procedure to perform a quantified environmental risk assessment for CCS, with reference to the specific activities mentioned above. Such an effort would be of extreme relevance not only for companies willing to implement CCS, as a methodological guidance, but also, by uniformizing the ERA procedure, to begin changing people’s perception about CCS, that happens to be often discredited due to the evident lack of comprehensive and systematic methods to assess the impacts on the marine environment. The backbone structure of the framework developed consists on the integration of ERA’s main steps and those belonging to the quantified risk assessment (QRA), in the aim of quantitatively characterizing risk and describing it as a combination of magnitude of the consequences and their frequency. The framework developed by this work is, however, at a high level, as not every single aspect has been dealt with in the required detail. Thus, several alternative options are presented to be considered for use depending on the situation. Further specific studies should address their accuracy and efficiency and solve the knowledge gaps emerged, in order to establish and validate a final and complete procedure. Regardless of the knowledge gaps and uncertainties, that surely need to be addressed, this preliminary framework already finds some relevance in on field applications, as a non-stringent guidance to perform CCS ERA, and it constitutes the foundation of the final framework.

Consensus of Official Position of IOF/ISCD FRAX Initiatives in Asia-Pacific Region.

The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX(®)) has been developed for the identification of individuals with high risk of fracture in whom treatment to prevent fractures would be appropriate. FRAX models are not yet available for all countries or ethnicities, but surrogate models can be used within regions with similar fracture risk. The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) and International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) are nonprofit multidisciplinary international professional organizations. Their visions are to advance the awareness, education, prevention, and treatment of osteoporosis. In November 2010, the IOF/ISCD FRAX initiative was held in Bucharest, bringing together international experts to review and create evidence-based official positions guiding clinicians for the practical use of FRAX. A consensus meeting of the Asia-Pacific (AP) Panel of the ISCD recently reviewed the most current Official Positions of the Joint Official Positions of ISCD and IOF on FRAX in view of the different population characteristics and health standards in the AP regions. The reviewed position statements included not only the key spectrum of positions but also unique concerns in AP regions.

Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism: A Key Patient Safety Priority

Prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is an important part of our strategy to improve patient safety.The Northern Ireland HSC Safety Forum established and facilitated a regional collaborative which developed a single VTE Risk Assessment Tool for N.Ireland.

The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism, 2000

The Iowa Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP) received funding through the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) State Justice Statistics (SJS) Program for the purpose of collection and analysis of data related to implementation of the Iowa Sex Offender Registry. The research had two specific goals: · To enhance understanding of the State’s Sex Offender Registry through collection and analysis of data on sex offenders before and after the Registry’s implementation. · To develop and validate a unique Iowa Sex Offender Risk Assessment tool to assist in identifying those offenders who constitute the highest risk to re-offend. Few studies have addressed the impact of a Sex Offender Registry program on recidivism rates or other variables. It was the purpose of this first study to examine and compare two groups of individuals to determine what effect, if any, the requirement to register as a sex offender had on recidivism rates over a 3-4 year period.

FRAX(®) Clinical Task Force of the 2010 Joint International Society for Clinical Densitometry & International Osteoporosis Foundation Position Development Conference.

The World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX(®), is an advance in clinical care that can assist in clinical decision-making. However, with increasing clinical utilization, numerous questions have arisen regarding how to best estimate fracture risk in an individual patient. Recognizing the need to assist clinicians in optimal use of FRAX(®), the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) in conjunction with the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) assembled an international panel of experts that ultimately developed joint Official Positions of the ISCD and IOF advising clinicians regarding FRAX(®) usage. As part of the process, the charge of the FRAX(®) Clinical Task Force was to review and synthesize data surrounding a number of recognized clinical risk factors including rheumatoid arthritis, smoking, alcohol, prior fracture, falls, bone turnover markers and glucocorticoid use. This synthesis was presented to the expert panel and constitutes the data on which the subsequent Official Positions are predicated. A summary of the Clinical Task Force composition and charge is presented here.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, April 2009

Past studies have shown the LSI-R risk assessment tool to be accurate in assessing the risk level of Iowa offenders. A more recent study, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, showed that a reduction in the LSI-R score over time results in a lower risk that an Iowa offender will reoffend.

Uuden riskien arviointityökalun käyttöönotto metsäteollisuusyrityksessä

Vuonna 2003 uudistunut työturvallisuuslaki lisäsi yritysten vastuuta oman työympäristön riskien tunnistamisessa. Laki velvoittaa yritykset tunnistamaan, selvittämään ja arvioimaan työstä ja työolosuhteista johtuvat vaara- ja haittatekijät. Perinteisesti yritykset ovat suorittaneet riskien arviointia erilaisten tarkistuslistojen avulla, mutta nykyään tietotekniikan käytön lisääntyminen on tuonut tietotekniikan myös yhdeksi riskienhallinnan työvälineeksi. Tämän työn tavoitteena oli tutkia If Vahinkovakuutusyhtiön uuden riskien arviointiohjelman käyttöönottoa metsäteollisuuden yrityksessä, ja selvittää sen vaikutuksia turvallisuustoimenpiteiden hallintaan ja vastaavuutta sille ennakkoon asetettuihin käytettävyysvaatimuksiin. Riskien arviointiohjelmaa tutkittiin pilottikohteessa Stora Enson Anjalankoskentehtailla. Tietoa kerättiin mm. käyttäjäkoulutustilaisuuksien palautekyselyillä, haastattelemalla arvioijia ja osallistumalla riskien arviointikierroksille. Tutkimuksessa seurattiin mm. ohjelman avulla syntyneiden toimenpide-ehdotuksien määrää ja laatua, ja sitä kuinka hyvin ohjelmalle suunniteltu sisältö sopii käyttöön. Tämän tutkimuksen perusteella havaittiin, että riskien arviointiin tarkoitettu tietokoneohjelma voidaan suunnitella helppokäyttöiseksi ja toimivaksi. Myös ohjelman sisältö, joka oli tarkoitettu kattamaan työturvallisuuden eri osa-alueet, havaittiin tarkoitukseen sopivaksi. Riskien arvioinnin ongelmallisin alue, eli turvallisuustoimenpiteiden suunnittelu ja seuranta, havaittiin haasteelliseksi toteutettavaksi ohjelman avulla. Yritysten erilaisiin riskien arviointikäytäntöihinsopivan raportointijärjestelmän ja toimenpideseurannan kehittäminen tulee olemaan tulevaisuudessakin tärkeä osa-alue riskien arviointiohjelmien kehittämisessä.

Pk-yrityksen toimitusketjun liiketoimintariskien arviointityökalu

Riskienhallinta auttaa yritystä toimittamaan sovitut tuotteet ja palvelut ajallaan sekä oikean laatuisina. Riskienhallinnassa on tärkeää ottaa huomioon koko toimitusketju, sekä sen hallinta ja kehittäminen, sillä tätä kautta riskienhallinnasta saadaan mahdollisimman kattava. Yrityksen ja riskienhallinnan kannalta liiketoimintariskit ovat erittäin merkityksellisiä, sillä ne ovat usein erittäin vaikeasti hahmotettavia ja hallittavia. Tämä koskee erityisesti pk-yrityksiä. Riskienhallintaa voidaan helpottaa riskienarviointityökalun ja -hallintaprosessin avulla. Riskienhallintaprosessin avulla voidaan suorittaa järjestelmällisesti riskien tunnistamista ja arviointia, sekä suunnitella ja toteuttaa tarvittavat riskienhallintatoimenpiteet. Riskien arvioinnin tarkoituksena on löytää kaikkein merkityksellisimmät riskit. Riskin merkittävyyden tärkeimmät osat ovat riskin vakavuus ja todennäköisyys. Riskienhallinnan tulisi olla osa yrityksen jokapäiväistä toimintaa, ja sitä tulisi tehdä järjestelmällisesti. Tässä voidaan käyttää apuna riskienarviointityökalua, jonka tarkoituksena on auttaa yritystä parantamaan riskienhallintatasoa ja yrityksen kykyä vastata paremmin asiakkaiden toiveisiin ja vaatimuksiin.

Project and customer profitability analysis: an empirical case study

The objective of this case study is to provide a Finnish solution provider company an objective, in-depth analysis of their project based business and especially of project estimation accuracy. A project and customer profitability analysis is conducted as a complementary addition to describe profitability of the Case Company’s core division. The theoretical framework is constructed on project profitability and customer profitability analysis. Project profitability is approached starting from managing projects, continuing to project pricing process and concluding to project success. The empirical part of this study describes the Case Company’s project portfolio, and by means of quantitative analysis, the study describes how the characteristics of a project impact the project’s profitability. The findings indicate that it really makes a difference in project portfolio’s estimated and actual profitability when methods of installation and technical specifications are scrutinized. Implications on profitability are gathered into a risk assessment tool proposal.

Comparación de la severidad y extensión de la enfermedad coronaria multivaso por Syntax Score en una poblaciòn de las Antillas Holandesas vs controles nacionales

En la Enfermedad Coronaria (EC) existen factores genéticos, socioculturales, medioambientales y raciales adicionales a los factores de riesgo cardiovascular mayores que podrían influir en su presentación. Se desconoce el impacto de la raza en la severidad de la enfermedad coronaria en los pacientes extranjeros que son enviados a nuestro Servicio. Objetivos: Comparar la severidad de la EC multivaso en una población de pacientes de las Antillas y Nacionales, pareados por la escala Framingham. Metodología: Realizamos un estudio de corte transversal, comparando pacientes colombianos contra pacientes provenientes de las Antillas holandesas con similares factores de riesgo según escala de Framingham, catalogándolos por grupos de riesgo bajo, intermedio, alto y muy alto. Todos con EC severa multivaso documentada por angiografía coronaria desde enero del 2009 hasta Junio de 2011. Se excluyeron pacientes con antecedentes de intervención percutánea o quirúrgica previa. Resultados: Ingresaron 115 pacientes internacionales y 115 pacientes nacionales. La relación hombres/mujeres 3:1. La proporción de grupos de riesgo fue de bajo riesgo 2.5%, intermedio 15%, alto 19.3%, y muy alto 63.4%. El Syntax Score en pacientes nacionales fue 14.3+/-7.4 y en internacionales 22.2+/-10.5 p: 0.002. Conclusiones: En pacientes provenientes de las Antillas Holandesas, valorados en nuestra institución, se observó una mayor severidad de la enfermedad coronaria comparada con una población nacional con factores de riesgo similares. Estos hallazgos sugieren la influencia de la raza y factores genéticos en la severidad y extensión de la EC

Caracterización de las variables nutricionales en pacientes incidentes de diálisis peritoneal rts 2011-2012

Los pacientes con enfermedad renal crónica (ERC) terminal se caracterizan por presentar alteraciones nutricionales que se perpetúan independiente de la modalidad de la Terapia de Reemplazo Renal (TRR). En la diálisis peritoneal, tanto APD (automated peritoneal dialysis) como la CAPD (continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis) existe un alto riesgo de pérdida de albúmina por el filtrado peritoneal, sin diferencias claras en el estatus nutricional. El presente estudio caracteriza el estado nutricional de los pacientes incidentes en diálisis peritoneal de RTS Bogotá Regional 1, con un seguimiento de un año, para conocer los cambios en las variables nutricionales. Se realizó un estudio de cohortes retrospectivo, analizando 2 grupos según el tipo de diálisis peritoneal escogida (APD o CAPD), con un análisis análisis descriptivo trimestral de las características nutricionales y posteriormente una comparación entre las 2 modalidades de TRR. Encontrando un promedio de edad de 60,8 años, la mayoría hombres y etiología principal nefropatía diabética. La mayoría de las variables nutricionales permanecieron sin cambios durante seguimiento. El Test de equilibrio peritoneal para glucosa y creatinina mostró valores promedio bajo y promedio alto y la mayoría de pacientes un rango nutricional normal. Al comparar APD y CAPD, solo se encontraron de forma aislada, diferencias significativas en algunas variables aisladas. Este es el primer estudio en Colombia que evalúa diferentes aspectos nutricionales en diálisis peritoneal. Aunque con limitaciones metodológicas, es un punto de partida para la realización de estudios más robustos que del estado nutricional de los pacientes en diálisis peritoneal

Diretrizes para prevenção e tratamento da osteoporose induzida por glicocorticoide

Os glicocorticoides (GC) são prescritos por praticamente todas as especialidades médicas, e cerca de 0,5% da população geral do Reino Unido utiliza esses medicamentos. Com o aumento da sobrevida dos pacientes com doenças reumatológicas, a morbidade secundária ao uso dessa medicação representa um aspecto importante que deve ser considerado no manejo de nossos pacientes. As incidências de fraturas vertebrais e não vertebrais são elevadas, variando de 30%-50% em pessoas que usam GC por mais de três meses. Assim, a osteoporose e as fraturas por fragilidade devem ser prevenidas e tratadas em todos os pacientes que iniciarão ou que já estejam em uso desses esteroides. Diversas recomendações elaboradas por várias sociedades internacionais têm sido descritas na literatura, porém não há consenso entre elas. Recentemente, o Americam College of Rheumatology publicou novas recomendações, porém elas são fundamentadas na FRAX (WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool) para analisar o risco de cada indivíduo e, dessa maneira, não podem ser completamente utilizadas pela população brasileira. Dessa forma, a Comissão de Osteoporose e Doenças Osteometabólicas da Sociedade Brasileira de Reumatologia, em conjunto com a Associação Médica Brasileira e a Associação Brasileira de Medicina Física e Reabilitação, implementou as diretrizes brasileiras de osteoporose induzida por glicocorticoide (OPIG), baseando-se na melhor evidência científica disponível e/ou experiência de experts. DESCRIÇÃO DO MÉTODO DE COLETA DE EVIDÊNCIA: A revisão bibliográfica de artigos científicos desta diretriz foi realizada na base de dados MEDLINE. A busca de evidência partiu de cenários clínicos reais, e utilizou as seguintes palavras-chave (MeSH terms): Osteoporosis, Osteoporosis/chemically induced*= (Glucocorticoids= Adrenal Cortex Hormones, Steroids), Glucocorticoids, Glucocorticoids/administration and dosage, Glucocorticoids/therapeutic use, Glucocorticoids/adverse effects, Prednisone/adverse effects, Dose-Response Relationship, Drug, Bone Density/drug effects, Bone Density Conservation Agents/pharmacological action, Osteoporosis/ prevention&control, Calcium, Vitamin D, Vitamin D deficiency, Calcitriol, Receptors, Calcitriol; 1-hydroxycholecalciferol, Hydroxycholecalciferols, 25-Hydroxyvitamin D3 1-alpha-hydroxylase OR Steroid Hydroxylases, Prevention and Control, Spinal fractures/prevention & control, Fractures, Spontaneous, Lumbar Vertebrae/injuries, Lifestyle, Alcohol Drinking, Smoking OR tobacco use disorder, Movement, Resistance Training, Exercise Therapy, Bone density OR Bone and Bones, Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry OR Absorptiometry Photon OR DXA, Densitometry, Radiography, (Diphosphonates Alendronate OR Risedronate Pamidronate OR propanolamines OR Ibandronate OR Zoledronic acid, Teriparatide OR PTH 1-34, Men AND premenopause, pregnancy, pregnancy outcome maternal, fetus, lactation, breast-feeding, teratogens, Children (6-12 anos), adolescence (13-18 anos). GRAU DE RECOMENDAÇÃO E FORÇA DE EVIDÊNCIA: A) Estudos experimentais e observacionais de melhor consistência; B) Estudos experimentais e observacionais de menor consistência; C) Relatos de casos (estudos não controlados); D) Opinião desprovida de avaliação crítica, com base em consensos, estudos fisiológicos ou modelos animais. OBJETIVO: Estabelecer as diretrizes para a prevenção e o tratamento da OPIG.

[Osteoporosis - whom to treat? The importance of FRAX® in Switzerland]

The WHO fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® is a computer based algorithm that provides models for the assessment of fracture probability in men and women. The approach uses easily obtained clinical risk factors (CRFs) to estimate 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical spine, humerus or wrist fracture) and the 10-year probability of a hip fracture. The estimate can be used alone or with femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) to enhance fracture risk prediction. FRAX® is the only risk engine which takes into account the hazard of death as well as that of fracture. Probability of fracture is calculated in men and women from age, body mass index, and dichotomized variables that comprise a prior fragility fracture, parental history of hip fracture, current tobacco smoking, ever long-term use of oral glucocorticoids, rheumatoid arthritis, other causes of secondary osteoporosis, daily alcohol consumption of 3 or more units daily. The relationship between risk factors and fracture probability was constructed using information of nine population-based cohorts from around the world. CRFs for fracture had been identified that provided independent information on fracture risk based on a series of meta-analyses. The FRAX® algorithm was validated in 11 independent cohorts with in excess of 1 million patient-years, including the Swiss SEMOF cohort. Since fracture risk varies markedly in different regions of the world, FRAX® models need to be calibrated to those countries where the epidemiology of fracture and death is known. Models are currently available for 31 countries across the world. The Swiss-specific FRAX® model was developed very soon after the first release of FRAX® in 2008 and was published in 2009, using Swiss epidemiological data, integrating fracture risk and death hazard of our country. Two FRAX®-based approaches may be used to explore intervention thresholds. They have recently been investigated in the Swiss setting. In the first approach the guideline that individuals with a fracture probability equal to or exceeding that of women with a prior fragility fracture should be considered for treatment is translated into thresholds using 10-year fracture probabilities. In that case the threshold is age-dependent and increases from 16 % at the age of 60 ys to 40 % at the age of 80 ys. The second approach is a cost-effectiveness approach. Using a FRAX®-based intervention threshold of 15 % for both, women and men 50 years and older, should permit cost-effective access to therapy to patients at high fracture probability in our country and thereby contribute to further reduce the growing burden of osteoporotic fractures.

Falls and fractures in the elderly with sinus node disease: the impact of pacemaker implantation

Background. Falls and fractures in the elderly are among the leading causes of disability. We investigated whether pacemaker implantation prevents falls in patients with SND in a large cohort of patients. Methods. Patient demographics and medical history were collected prospectively. Fall history was retrospectively reconstituted from available medical records. The 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fractures was calculated retrospectively from available medical records using the Swiss fracture risk assessment tool FRAX-Switzerland. Results. During a mean observation period of 2.3 years after implantation, the rates of fallers and injured fallers with fracture were reduced to 15% and 6%, respectively. This corresponds to a relative reduction in the number of fallers of 75% (P < 0.001) and of injured fallers of 63% (P = 0.014) after pacemaker implantation. Similarly, the number of falls was reduced from 60 (48%) before pacemaker implantation to 22 (18%) thereafter (relative reduction 63%, P = 0.035) and the number of falls with injury from 22 (18%) to 7 (6%), which corresponds to a relative reduction of 67%, P = 0.013. Conclusion. In patients with SND, pacemaker implantation significantly reduces the number of patients experiencing falls, the total number of falls, and the risk for osteoporotic fractures.