Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Modeled monthly local topographic lapse rates, Pacific Northwest, USA

An emerging approach to downscaling the projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to scales relevant for basin hydrology is to use output of GCMs to force higher-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs). With spatial resolution often in the tens of kilometers, however, even RCM output will likely fail to resolve local topography that may be climatically significant in high-relief basins. Here we develop and apply an approach for downscaling RCM output using local topographic lapse rates (empirically-estimated spatially and seasonally variable changes in climate variables with elevation). We calculate monthly local topographic lapse rates from the 800-m Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, which is based on regressions of observed climate against topographic variables. We then use these lapse rates to elevationally correct two sources of regional climate-model output: (1) the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a retrospective dataset produced from a regional forecasting model constrained by observations, and (2) a range of baseline climate scenarios from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), which is produced by a series of RCMs driven by GCMs. By running a calibrated and validated hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), using observed station data and elevationally-adjusted NARR and NARCCAP output, we are able to estimate the sensitivity of hydrologic modeling to the source of the input climate data. Topographic correction of regional climate-model data is a promising method for modeling the hydrology of mountainous basins for which no weather station datasets are available or for simulating hydrology under past or future climates.

Programa Nacional de Incentivo à Leitura - PROLER: avaliação da implementação pelo Comitê Potiguar

The National Reading Incentive Program (PROLER) is a national initiative to promote and encourage reading throughout the country, linked to the National Library Foundation (FBN) of the Ministry of Culture (MinC). This research aims to assess the PROLER’s implementation process in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, from the actions of their local committee. The framework is based on contextualize the policies that seek to encourage the book and reading, as well as the processes of implementation and evaluation of public policies. The research is understood as a qualitative descriptive-exploratory study, comprising a single case study. Makes use of semi-structured interview as a tool for data collection, which was attended by 8 members of Potiguar Committee as respondents. The techniques of bibliographical and documentary analysis were used for the analysis and discussion of data obtained from surveys and documents on PROLER; as to the content of the interviews, the technique used was the analysis of conversations. As for the results, the existence of four barriers to program implementation in the state that are worth mentioning is observed: a) the political-administrative discontinuity; b) the limited resources and few partnerships; c) the management of school libraries and absence from the post of librarian in the state and; d) the absence of a process or assessment tool able to evaluate the results or the impacts of actions taken by the Potiguar Committee. It was noticed that these limiting four come PROLER making the implementation of the Rio Grande do Norte a process that, although complying with the national regulations of teacher training and follow school libraries and their needs, not flawed to develop assessments that can measure program impacts, making the feedback process of ineffective policy. Another observation of this study is seen in the fact that the Committee did not get enough to supply their shares resources, as well as not being able to articulate new partnerships, thus contributing negatively to the scope of the program form and, consequently, for the effectiveness of their actions. Has even mentioning the fact that the Committee do nothing regarding the mismanagement of the libraries that are in their care, ie, do not use the power of coercion as guaranteed by the National Policy on Reading and federal laws that treat the school library, and is therefore ineffective in relation to compliance with the program guidelines

Diagnóstico da comercialização de produtos da medicina popular em feiras livres do semiárido do Rio Grande do Norte: avaliações socioeconômicas e sanitárias, com proposta de legislação específica

Historically, man has empirically acquired knowledge about the therapeutic applications of extracted elements of the natural environment in which belonged. Such knowledge over time culminated in the formation of traditional health systems. Among its features, the use of bioactive plant species - medicinal plants - stands out for its efficiency and high popular acceptance. Despite its importance for public health, the population still has in the open-air fairs the main source for the acquisition of the species used. In these spaces, the trade generally occurs informally, under unfavorable conditions to the quality of the products and to the financial sustainability of the business. In this context, this study aimed to characterize the socioeconomic, cultural and sanitary aspects related to the trade of medicinal plants in municipalities of a semiarid region of Rio Grande do Norte, and additionally, proposing a specific legislation to the activity. Socioeconomic data were collected through on-site interviews, guided by structured form. The observations about the hygienic and sanitary adequacy of physical facilities and practices employed at the point of sale /environment were conducted and recorded with the use of assessment tool developed for use in open markets. The adequacy of medicinal plants to consumption was determined by microbiological analysis. The activity was carried out by individuals who are aged between 21 and 81 years of age, low educational level and low-income, predominantly males. The data showed a tendency to extinction of the activity in all the districts studied. It was observed in all the fairs studied hygiene and sanitation inadequacies that characterized very high health risk, representing in this way, the high probability of Food Transmitted Diseases outbreaks Such conditions were reflected in the high percentage of inadequacy to the consumption of the analyzed medicinal plants samples, illustrating the potential health risk to consumers. To contribute to the correction of hygiene and sanitation inadequacies observed in the studied open-air fairs, educational interventions were made to the training of traders in Good Practices. As a complement, was drafted a specific legislation for the marketing of folk medicine's products in open-air fairs. Such actions, products and its developments will contribute significantly to improving the quality of products available to the population and the preservation of activity, potentially reducing the risks to public health.

Gravidade do olho seco em pacientes internados em unidade de terapia intensiva: análise de conceito e construção de definições

Dry eye syndrome is a multifactorial disease of the tear film, resulting from the instability of the lacrimal functional unit that produces volume change, up or tear distribution. In patients in intensive care the cause is enhanced due to various risk factors, such as mechanical ventilation, sedation, lagophthalmos, low temperatures, among others. The study's purpose is to build an assessment tool of Dry Eye Severity in patients in intensive care units based on the systematization of nursing care and their classification systems. The aim of this study is to build an assessment tool of Dry Eye Severity in hospitalized patients in Care Unit Intensiva.Trata is a methodological study conducted in three stages, namely: context analysis, concept analysis, construction of operational definitions and magnitudes of nursing outcome. For the first step we used the methodological framework for Hinds, Chaves and Cypress (1992). For the second step we used the model of Walker and Avant and an integrative review Whitemore seconds, Knalf (2005). This step enabled the identification of the concept of attributes, background and consequent ground and the construction of the settings for the result of nursing severity of dry eye. For the construction of settings and operational magnitudes, it was used Psicometria proposed by Pasquali (1999). As a result of context analysis, visualized from the reflection that the matter should be discussed and that nursing needs to pay attention to the problem of eye injury, so minimizing strategies are created this event with a high prevalence. With the integrative review were located from the crosses 19 853 titles, selected 215, and from the abstracts 96 articles were read in full. From reading 10 were excluded culminating in the sample of 86 articles that were used to analyze the concept and construction of settings. Selected articles were found in greater numbers in the Scopus database (55.82%), performed in the United States (39.53%), and published mainly in the last five years (48.82). Regarding the concept of analysis were identified as antecedents: age, lagophthalmos, environmental factors, medication use, systemic diseases, mechanical ventilation and ophthalmic surgery. As attributes: TBUT <10s, Schimer I test <5 mm in Schimer II test <10mm, reduced osmolarity. As consequential: the ocular surface damage, ocular discomfort, visual instability. The settings were built and added indicators such as: decreased blink mechanism and eyestrain.

AVALIAÇÃO INSTITUCIONAL NA EDUCAÇÃO BÁSICA: UMA ANÁLISE DA PRÁTICA DA EDUCAÇÃO ADVENTISTA

O tema desta dissertação é a Avaliação Institucional da Educação Básica. Para tal, faz-se a análise do processo de avaliação, com ênfase no instrumento utilizado pelas Escolas Adventistas de nível básico do estado de São Paulo, considerando que a educação adventista se tornou uma parte consistente dentro da estrutura da Igreja Adventista do Sétimo Dia. Procurou-se, neste trabalho, como objetivo geral, compreender como se configura a prática da avaliação institucional das escolas da Rede Adventista de Educação. O método da investigação incluiu análise bibliográfica dos principais teóricos da área de políticas públicas e do sistema privado bem como da avaliação institucional, seguido de exame documental do instrumento utilizado no processo de avaliação institucional. O estudo resgata a contextualização histórica do desenvolvimento da escola privada, destacando aspectos relevantes de sua relação com o Estado. Também apresenta brevemente a história da Igreja Adventista do Sétimo Dia (IASD) nos Estados Unidos (EUA) e no Brasil, de modo a situar o surgimento do sistema educacional adventista, bem como a sua filosofia de ensino, buscando conhecer as origens desse grupo religioso que há mais de um século atua no cenário educacional brasileiro. Em seguida, aborda aspectos da Avaliação Institucional. Finalmente, apresenta-se uma síntese do processo e uma descrição analítica do instrumento de avaliação institucional das escolas de nível básico da Educação Adventista. Na conclusão do trabalho, não se encontraram indícios de que o conceito adventista de avaliação educacional seja diferente do das abordagens tradicionais. Entretanto, na concepção adventista de avaliação, existe mais fortemente a preocupação de se manter um processo de avaliação contínuo e sistemático.

A importância da qualidade na avaliação em formato a distância

Relatório de estágio para obtenção do grau de mestre em Educação e Comunicação Multimédia

Tradução e adaptação transcultural do domínio função física do Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System – PROMIS® - versão para a língua portuguesa

In 2004, the National Institutes of Health made available the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System – PROMIS®, which is constituted of innovative item banks for health assessment. It is based on classical, reliable Patient-Reported Outcomes (PROs) and includes advanced statistical methods, such as Item Response Theory and Computerized Adaptive Test. One of PROMIS® Domain Frameworks is the Physical Function, whose item bank need to be translated and culturally adapted so it can be used in Portuguese speaking countries. This work aimed to translate and culturally adapt the PROMIS® Physical Function item bank into Portuguese. FACIT (Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy) translation methodology, which is constituted of eight stages for translation and cultural adaptation, was used. Fifty subjects above the age of 18 years participated in the pre-test (seventh stage). The questionnaire was answered by the participants (self-reported questionnaires) by using think aloud protocol, and cognitive and retrospective interviews. In FACIT methodology, adaptations can be done since the beginning of the translation and cultural adaption process, ensuring semantic, conceptual, cultural, and operational equivalences of the Physical Function Domain. During the pre-test, 24% of the subjects had difficulties understanding the items, 22% of the subjects suggested changes to improve understanding. The terms and concepts of the items were totally understood (100%) in 87% of the items. Only four items had less than 80% of understanding; for this reason, it was necessary to chance them so they could have correspondence with the original item and be understood by the subjects, after retesting. The process of translation and cultural adaptation of the PROMIS® Physical Function item bank into Portuguese was successful. This version of the assessment tool must have its psychometric properties validated before being made available for clinical use.

Nvidia, matrox, paper? - Undergraduate game design tools in the humanities and social sciences

Eschewing costly high-tech approaches, this paper looks at the experience of using low-tech approaches to game design assignments as problem based learning and assessment tool over a number of years in undergraduate teaching. General game design concepts are discussed, along with learning outcomes and assessment rubrics in line with Blooms Taxonomy based on evidence from students who had no prior experience of serious game play or design. Approaches to creating game design based assessments are offered.

The effects of centrally acting ACE inhibitors on the rate of cognitive and functional decline in dementia: a KDD approach

Alzheimer’s Disease and other dementias are one of the most challenging illnesses confronting countries with ageing populations. Treatment options for dementia are limited, and the costs are significant. There is a growing need to develop new treatments for dementia, especially for the elderly. There is also growing evidence that centrally acting angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, which cross the blood-brain barrier, are associated with a reduced rate of cognitive and functional decline in dementia, especially in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of centrally acting ACE inhibitors (CACE-Is) on the rate of cognitive and functional decline in dementia, using a three phased KDD process. KDD, as a scientific way to process and analysis clinical data, is used to find useful insights from a variety of clinical databases. The data used are from three clinic databases: Geriatric Assessment Tool (GAT), the Doxycycline and Rifampin for Alzheimer’s Disease (DARAD), and the Qmci validation databases, which were derived from several different geriatric clinics in Canada. This research involves patients diagnosed with AD, vascular or mixed dementia only. Patients were included if baseline and end-point (at least six months apart) Standardised Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE), Quick Mild Cognitive Impairment (Qmci) or Activities Daily Living (ADL) scores were available. Basically, the rates of change are compared between patients taking CACE-Is, and those not currently treated with CACE-Is. The results suggest that there is a statistically significant difference in the rate of decline in cognitive and functional scores between CACE-I and NoCACE-I patients. This research also validates that the Qmci, a new short assessment test, has potential to replace the current popular screening tests for cognition in the clinic and clinical trials.

Biological Impacts and Uses of Black Bass Competitive Fishing Tournaments on Large Lake Systems

Recreational fisheries in North America are valued between $47.3 billion and $56.8 billion. Fisheries managers must make strategic decisions based on sound science and knowledge of population ecology, to effectively conserve populations. Competitive fishing, in the form of tournaments, has become an important part of recreational fisheries, and is common on large waterbodies including the Great Lakes. Black Bass, Micropterus spp., are top predators and among the most sought after species in competitive catch-and-release tournaments. This study investigated catch-and-release tournaments as an assessment tool through mark-recapture for Largemouth Bass (>305mm) populations in the Tri Lakes, and Bay of Quinte, part of the eastern basin of Lake Ontario. The population in the Tri Lakes (1999-2002) was estimated to be stable between 21,928-29,780, and the population in the Bay of Quinte (2012-2015) was estimated to be between 31,825-54,029 fish. Survival in the Tri Lakes varied throughout the study period, from 31%-54%; while survival in the Bay of Quinte remained stable at 63%. Differences in survival may be due to differences in fishing pressure, as 34-46% of the Largemouth Bass population on the Tri Lakes is harvested annually and only 19% of catch was attributed to tournament angling. Many biological issues still surround catch-and-release tournaments, particularly concerning displacement from initial capture sites. In the past, the majority of studies have focused on small inland lakes and coastal areas, displacing bass relatively short distances. My study displaced Largemouth and Smallmouth Bass up to 100km, and found very low rates of return; only 1 of 18 Largemouth Bass returned 15 km and 1 of 18 Smallmouth Bass returned 135 km. Both species remained near the release sites for an average of approximately 2 weeks prior to dispersing. Tournament organizers should consider the use of satellite release locations to facilitate dispersal and prevent stockpiling at the release site. Catch-and-release tournaments proved to be a valuable tool in assessing population variables and the effects of long distance displacement through the use of mark recapture and acoustic telemetry on large lake systems.

NEIGHBORHOOD PERCEPTION OF SAFETY AND THE MOBILITY GAP BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN IN OLD AGE

Background and Objectives: Mobility limitations are a prevalent issue in older adult populations, and an important determinant of disability and mortality. Neighborhood conditions are key determinants of mobility and perception of safety may be one such determinant. Women have more mobility limitations than men, a phenomenon known as the gender mobility gap. The objective of this work was to validate a measure of perception of safety, examine the relationship between neighborhood perception of safety and mobility limitations in seniors, and explore if these effects vary by gender. Methods: This study was cross-sectional, using questionnaire data collected from community-dwelling older adults from four sites in Canada, Colombia, and Brazil. The exposure variable was the neighborhood aggregated Perception of Safety (PoS) scale, derived from the Physical and Social Disorder (PSD) scale by Sampson and Raudenbush. Its construct validity was verified using factor analyses and correlation with similar measures. The Mobility Assessment Tool – short form (MAT-sf), a video-based measure validated cross-culturally in the studied populations, was used to assess mobility limitations. Based on theoretical models, covariates were included in the analysis, both at the neighborhood level (SES, social capital, and built environment) and the individual level (age, gender, education, income, chronic illnesses, depression, cognitive function, BMI, and social participation). Multilevel modeling was used in order to account for neighborhood clustering. Gender specific analyses were carried out. SAS and M-plus were used in this study. Results: PoS was validated across all sites. It loaded in a single factor, after excluding two items, with a Cronbach α value of approximately 0.86. Mobility limitations were present in 22.08% of the sample, 16.32% among men and 27.41% among women. Neighborhood perception of safety was significantly associated with mobility limitations when controlling for all covariates, with an OR of 0.84 (CI 95%: 0.73-0.96), indicating lower odds of having mobility limitations as neighborhood perception of safety improves. Gender did not affect this relationship despite women being more likely to have mobility limitations and live in neighborhoods with poor perception of safety. Conclusion: Neighborhood perception of safety affected the prevalence of mobility limitations in older adults in the studied population.

Jigsaw Java: Intelligent, Automated Marking

The popularity of Computing degrees in the UK has been increasing significantly over the past number of years. In Northern Ireland, from 2007 to 2015, there has been a 40% increase in acceptances to Computer Science degrees with England seeing a 60% increase over the same period (UCAS, 2016). However, this is tainted as Computer Science degrees also continue to maintain the highest dropout rates.
In Queen’s University Belfast we currently have a Level 1 intake of over 400 students across a number of computing pathways. Our drive as staff is to empower and motivate the students to fully engage with the course content. All students take a Java programming module the aim of which is to provide an understanding of the basic principles of object-oriented design. In order to assess these skills, we have developed Jigsaw Java as an innovative assessment tool offering intelligent, semi-supervised automated marking of code.
Jigsaw Java allows students to answer programming questions using a drag-and-drop interface to place code fragments into position. Their answer is compared to the sample solution and if it matches, marks are allocated accordingly. However, if a match is not found then the corresponding code is executed using sample data to determine if its logic is acceptable. If it is, the solution is flagged to be checked by staff and if satisfactory is saved as an alternative solution. This means that appropriate marks can be allocated and should another student have submitted the same placement of code fragments this does not need to be executed or checked again. Rather the system now knows how to assess it.
Jigsaw Java is also able to consider partial marks dependent on code placement and will “learn” over time. Given the number of students, Jigsaw Java will improve the consistency and timeliness of marking.