Local influence for Student-t partially linear models

In this paper we extend partial linear models with normal errors to Student-t errors Penalized likelihood equations are applied to derive the maximum likelihood estimates which appear to be robust against outlying observations in the sense of the Mahalanobis distance In order to study the sensitivity of the penalized estimates under some usual perturbation schemes in the model or data the local influence curvatures are derived and some diagnostic graphics are proposed A motivating example preliminary analyzed under normal errors is reanalyzed under Student-t errors The local influence approach is used to compare the sensitivity of the model estimates (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Bimodal extension based on the skew-normal distribution with application to pollen data

This paper considers an extension to the skew-normal model through the inclusion of an additional parameter which can lead to both uni- and bi-modal distributions. The paper presents various basic properties of this family of distributions and provides a stochastic representation which is useful for obtaining theoretical properties and to simulate from the distribution. Moreover, the singularity of the Fisher information matrix is investigated and maximum likelihood estimation for a random sample with no covariates is considered. The main motivation is thus to avoid using mixtures in fitting bimodal data as these are well known to be complicated to deal with, particularly because of identifiability problems. Data-based illustrations show that such model can be useful. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Size and power properties of some tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order n(-1/2) and under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, for the non-null distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation is presented in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. We also present two empirical applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved likelihood inference in beta regression

We consider the issue of performing accurate small-sample likelihood-based inference in beta regression models, which are useful for modelling continuous proportions that are affected by independent variables. We derive small-sample adjustments to the likelihood ratio statistic in this class of models. The adjusted statistics can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. We present Monte Carlo simulations showing that inference based on the adjusted statistics we propose is much more reliable than that based on the usual likelihood ratio statistic. A real data example is presented.

Cutpoint selection for discretizing a continuous covariate for generalized estimating equations

We consider consider the problem of dichotomizing a continuous covariate when performing a regression analysis based on a generalized estimation approach. The problem involves estimation of the cutpoint for the covariate and testing the hypothesis that the binary covariate constructed from the continuous covariate has a significant impact on the outcome. Due to the multiple testing used to find the optimal cutpoint, we need to make an adjustment to the usual significance test to preserve the type-I error rates. We illustrate the techniques on one data set of patients given unrelated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Here the question is whether the CD34 cell dose given to patient affects the outcome of the transplant and what is the smallest cell dose which is needed for good outcomes. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is commonly used in reliability studies. We address the issue of performing inference in this class of models when the number of observations is small. Our simulation results suggest that the likelihood ratio test tends to be liberal when the sample size is small. We obtain a correction factor which reduces the size distortion of the test. Also, we consider a parametric bootstrap scheme to obtain improved critical values and improved p-values for the likelihood ratio test. The numerical results show that the modified tests are more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio test. We also present an empirical application. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heteroscedastic controlled calibration model applied to analytical chemistry

In chemical analyses performed by laboratories, one faces the problem of determining the concentration of a chemical element in a sample. In practice, one deals with the problem using the so-called linear calibration model, which considers that the errors associated with the independent variables are negligible compared with the former variable. In this work, a new linear calibration model is proposed assuming that the independent variables are subject to heteroscedastic measurement errors. A simulation study is carried out in order to verify some properties of the estimators derived for the new model and it is also considered the usual calibration model to compare it with the new approach. Three applications are considered to verify the performance of the new approach. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Improved testing inference in mixed linear models

Mixed linear models are commonly used in repeated measures studies. They account for the dependence amongst observations obtained from the same experimental unit. Often, the number of observations is small, and it is thus important to use inference strategies that incorporate small sample corrections. In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for fixed effects inference in mixed linear models. In particular, we derive a Bartlett correction to such a test, and also to a test obtained from a modified profile likelihood function. Our results generalize those in [Zucker, D.M., Lieberman, O., Manor, O., 2000. Improved small sample inference in the mixed linear model: Bartlett correction and adjusted likelihood. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 62,827-838] by allowing the parameter of interest to be vector-valued. Additionally, our Bartlett corrections allow for random effects nonlinear covariance matrix structure. We report simulation results which show that the proposed tests display superior finite sample behavior relative to the standard likelihood ratio test. An application is also presented and discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Billiards in a General Domain with Random Reflections

We study stochastic billiards on general tables: a particle moves according to its constant velocity inside some domain D R(d) until it hits the boundary and bounces randomly inside, according to some reflection law. We assume that the boundary of the domain is locally Lipschitz and almost everywhere continuously differentiable. The angle of the outgoing velocity with the inner normal vector has a specified, absolutely continuous density. We construct the discrete time and the continuous time processes recording the sequence of hitting points on the boundary and the pair location/velocity. We mainly focus on the case of bounded domains. Then, we prove exponential ergodicity of these two Markov processes, we study their invariant distribution and their normal (Gaussian) fluctuations. Of particular interest is the case of the cosine reflection law: the stationary distributions for the two processes are uniform in this case, the discrete time chain is reversible though the continuous time process is quasi-reversible. Also in this case, we give a natural construction of a chord ""picked at random"" in D, and we study the angle of intersection of the process with a (d - 1) -dimensional manifold contained in D.

An R implementation for generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions

The Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) model is a positively skewed statistical distribution that has received great attention in recent decades. A generalized version of this model was derived based on symmetrical distributions in the real line named the generalized BS (GBS) distribution. The R package named gbs was developed to analyze data from GBS models. This package contains probabilistic and reliability indicators and random number generators from GBS distributions. Parameter estimates for censored and uncensored data can also be obtained by means of likelihood methods from the gbs package. Goodness-of-fit and diagnostic methods were also implemented in this package in order to check the suitability of the GBS models. in this article, the capabilities and features of the gbs package are illustrated by using simulated and real data sets. Shape and reliability analyses for GBS models are presented. A simulation study for evaluating the quality and sensitivity of the estimation method developed in the package is provided and discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing hypotheses in the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II censored samples

The two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used successfully to model fatigue failure times. Although censoring is typical in reliability and survival studies, little work has been published on the analysis of censored data for this distribution. In this paper, we address the issue of performing testing inference on the two parameters of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II right censored samples. The likelihood ratio statistic and a recently proposed statistic, the gradient statistic, provide a convenient framework for statistical inference in such a case, since they do not require to obtain, estimate or invert an information matrix, which is an advantage in problems involving censored data. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out in order to investigate and compare the finite sample performance of the likelihood ratio and the gradient tests. Our numerical results show evidence that the gradient test should be preferred. Further, we also consider the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II right censored samples and present some Monte Carlo simulations for testing the parameters in this class of models using the likelihood ratio and gradient tests. Three empirical applications are presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for the Grubbs` model under heavy-tailed distributions

The Grubbs` measurement model is frequently used to compare several measuring devices. It is common to assume that the random terms have a normal distribution. However, such assumption makes the inference vulnerable to outlying observations, whereas scale mixtures of normal distributions have been an interesting alternative to produce robust estimates, keeping the elegancy and simplicity of the maximum likelihood theory. The aim of this paper is to develop an EM-type algorithm for the parameter estimation, and to use the local influence method to assess the robustness aspects of these parameter estimates under some usual perturbation schemes, In order to identify outliers and to criticize the model building we use the local influence procedure in a Study to compare the precision of several thermocouples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.