Global Systemic Risk and International Regulatory Coordination: Squaring Sovereignty and Financial Stability

In recent years much attention has been given to systemic risk and maintaining financial stability. Much of the focus, rightly, has been on market failures and the role of regulation in addressing them. This article looks at the role of domestic policies and government actions as sources of global instability. The global financial system is built upon global markets controlled by national financial and macroeconomic policies. In this context, regulatory asymmetries, diverging policy preferences, and government failures add a further dimension to global systemic risk not present at the national level.
Systemic risk is a result of the interplay between two independent variables: an underlying trigger event, in this analysis a domestic policy measure, and a transmission channel. The solution to systemic risk requires tackling one of these variables. In a domestic setting, the centralization of regulatory power into one single authority makes it easier to balance the delicate equilibrium between enhancing efficiency and reducing instability. However, in a global financial system in which national financial policies serve to maximize economic welfare, regulators will be confronted with difficult policy and legal tradeoffs.
We investigate the role that financial regulation plays in addressing domestic policy failures and in controlling the danger of global financial interdependence. To do so we analyse global financial interconnectedness, and explain its role in transmitting instability; we investigate the political economy dynamics at the origin of regulatory asymmetries and government failures; and we discuss the limits of regulation.

A Reappraisal of the Safety and Cost-Effectiveness of Statin Therapy in Primary Prevention

Statins are among the most investigated drugs of all time. There is now a wealth of evidence supporting their use in the primary and secondary prevention arenas. The reduction in event recurrence has since been demonstrated across all levels of risk and in elderly patients. As a result, it is now accepted practice for statins to be prescribed universally in secondary prevention unless contraindicated. The extension of this policy into the primary prevention setting is more problematic, with moral and financial issues arising from the long-term treatment of many young apparently healthy individuals. For these reasons it is necessary to prove not only the financial sustainability of such a strategy but also the long-term safety of statins and the degree of benefit that might be expected.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

A value chain analysis of tuna industry in Ghana

Every can of tuna purchased by the consumer has taken a long journey before reaching the supermarket shelves. For each can bought there is a lengthy process from sea to shelf. A large proportion of the tuna cans purchased in the European Union come all the way from West Africa; a developing region with a high dependency on fisheries. Amidst an ever-increasing demand for tuna products the global tuna fisheries are set to continue expanding, apparently one of the last natural resource based industries fit to do so in West Africa. Tuna is the biggest fisheries export and dominates the fisheries sector in Ghana, a country situated in West Africa. This thesis aims to understand how this globally important industrial fisheries functions in terms of procedures, practices, Governance and finance. Socioeconomic influences, in the setting of a developing country, were also examined. For these purposes a Value Chain Analysis was employed. A Value Chain Analysis is a tool commonly used to understand how different companies and organizations participate in a domestic policy environment, which directs conclusion in the global economy. This analysis has the potential to allow researchers to fully understand a commodity chain and hence identify realistic opportunities for consequential improvements. Interviews and questionnaires were employed in-field Ghana along with secondary data collection techniques. It was found that the fisheries functions at the production level under influences from large multinational companies and tends to operate with a certain degree of lawlessness. Governance over the value chain is well defined, however implementation is poor or non-existent. The processors, whom are also dominated by multinationals, exert some control over the producers and their sales, however the high value links which are highlighted occur at the retail stage. Socioeconomic dynamics acting in the chain included the lack of communication between the public and private sector, power imbalances amongst players at production, the role of local businesswomen as actors in the chain and the general characteristics of the workers in the industry. Value addition and upgrading are needed the most in Governance over the chain, especially within Monitoring, Control and Surveillance. The results of the study provide a wealth of material about the components of a cost-heavy fishing industry in a developing country; an industry on which many eyes have recently turned due to illegal fishing activities. It highlights clearly where funding and future focus are needed. This value chain can be used as a guide for those that need to comprehend the financial complexities and real life dynamics of the Ghanaian tuna fishing industry today.

Taxation and Household Financial Decisions: Evidence from the Bush Tax Acts

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Waiting for Godot? Welfare Attitudes in Portugal Before and After the Financial Crisis

Do attitudes towards the welfare state change in response to economic crises? Addressing this question is sometimes difficult because of the lack of longitudinal data. This article deals with this empirical challenge using survey data from the 2008 European Social Survey and from our own follow-up survey of Spring 2013 to track welfare attitudes at the brink and at the peak of the socio-economic crisis in one of the hardest hit countries: Portugal. The literature on social policy preferences predicts an increased polarization in opinions towards the welfare state between different groups within society – in particular between labour market insiders and outsiders. However the prediction has scarcely been tested empirically. A notoriously dualized country, Portugal provides a critical setting in which to test this hypothesis. The results show attitudinal change and this varies according to labour market vulnerability. However, we observe no polarisation and advance alternative explanations for why this is so.

How can economic and political liberalisation improve financial development in African countries?

The objective of this paper is to study the interactions between Economic liberalisation, Political liberalisation and Financial development in African countries. More specifically, we seek to establish the impact of Economic, Political and institutional openness on financial deepening. The empirical approach will be two-step procedure, first using a difference in difference method to show the various aspect of financial liberalisation on economic and political freedom while the second step will be using panel data techniques from period 1990 to 2005. The estimation results can be summarised as the following, first, Economic and financial liberalisation did account significantly for the financial development performance. While political stability show a positive overall effect on financial development, the association with Political freedom is consistent only after controlling the endogeneity of Political freedom on financial development. This result indicates that the transformation of the political and economic environment has improved the performance of the financial sector.

Financial development and income inequality: evidence from African countries

This paper present empirical evidence on how financial development is related to income distribution in a panel data set covering 22 African countries for the period between 1990 to 2004. A dynamic panel estimation technique (GMM) is employ and the findings indicate that income inequality decrease as economies develop their financial sector, which is consistent with the bulk of theoretical and empirical research. The result also confirm that educational attainment play a significant role in making income distribution more equal. We also find no evidence supporting the Greenwood-Jovanovic hypothesis of an inverted-U- shaped relationship between financial sector development and inequality.