Grand challenges for public health

What is the future for public health in the twenty-first century? Can we glean an idea about the future of public health from its past? As Winston Churchill once said: ‘[T]he further backward you look, the further forward you can see.’ What can we see in the history of public health that gives us an idea of where public health might be headed in the future? (Gruszin et al. 2012). In the twentieth century there was substantial progress in public health in Australia. These improvements were brought about through a number of factors. In part, improvements were due to increasing knowledge about the natural history of disease and its treatment. Added to this knowledge was a shifting focus from legislative measures to protect health, to the emergence of improved promotion and prevention strategies, and a general improvement in social and economic conditions for people living in countries such as Australia. Gruszin et al. (2012) consider the range of social and economic reforms of the twentieth century as the most important determinants of the public’s health at the start of the twenty-first century (Gruszin et al. 2012 p 201). The same could not, however, be said for second or third world countries, many of whom have the most fundamental of sanitary and health protection issues still to deal with. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa and in Russia the decline in life expectancy can be said to be related to a range of interconnected factors. In Russia, issues such as alcoholism, violence, suicide, accidents and cardiovascular disease could be contributing to the falling life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007). In sub-Saharan Africa, a range of factors, such as HIV/AIDS, poverty, malaria, tuberculosis, undernutrition, totally inadequate infrastructure, gender inequality, conflict and violence, political taboos and a complete lack of political will, have all contributed to a dramatic drop in life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007).

Le Grand Tour Du reste de l’Europe jusqu’à la Laponie – et retour

Rencontre entre le Sud et le Nord Depuis des siècles, les pays méditerranéens ont entretenu des relations actives avec le Nord de l’Europe. Les regions du Nord ont été conquises et converties, manipulées et colonisées, mais aussi intégrées dans les réseaux commerciaux, scientifi ques, culturels et touristiques. Les voyageurs du Sud de l’Europe ont peu à peu découvert les regions plurielles du Nord de la Finlande, de la Suède, de la Norvège et de la presqu’île de Kola. L’attraction focntionnait aussi dans l’autre sens. Pour les gens du Nord, scientifi ques ou artistes, le Sud de l’Europe constituait une destination aussi exotique aue la Laponie pour ceux du Sud. Dans ce recueil, nous proposons dix points de vue sur ces échanges et réseaux entre la Sud et le Nord. Le premier chapitre présente Tornio, connue très tôt comme la porte de la Laponie, les premières relations scientifi ques entre le Nord et le Sud, ainsi que les exhibitions de Samis dans les métropoles européennes. Le deuxième chapitre propose une analyse des experiences et des impressions de voyageurs italiens, espagnols et français. Le dernier chapitre est consacré aux voyages d’artistes et écrivains fi nlandais en France, principalement à Paris. Ces rencontres entre le Sud et le Nord qui participèrent à la remise en cause, la relativisation et la construction des identities nationals et ethniques, permirent aussi de créer une conscience européenne commune.

The Church and Its Boundaries : A Study of the Special Commission on Orthodox Participation in the WCC

The relationship between the Orthodox Churches and the World Council of Churches (WCC) became a crisis just before the 8th Assembly of the WCC in Harare, Zimbabwe in 1998. The Special Commission on Orthodox Participation in the WCC (SC), inaugurated in Harare, worked during the period 1999 2002 to solve the crisis and to secure the Orthodox participation in the WCC. The purpose of this study is: 1) to clarify the theological motives for the inauguration of the SC and the theological argumentation of the Orthodox criticism; 2) to write a reliable history and analysis of the SC; 3) to outline the theological argumentation, which structures the debate, and 4) to investigate the ecclesiological questions that arise from the SC material. The study spans the years 1998 to 2006, from the WCC Harare Assembly to the Porto Alegre Assembly. Hence, the initiation and immediate reception of the Special Commission are included in the study. The sources of this study are all the material produced by and for the SC. The method employed is systematic analysis. The focus of the study is on theological argumentation; the historical context and political motives that played a part in the Orthodox-WCC relations are not discussed in detail. The study shows how the initial, specific and individual Orthodox concerns developed into a profound ecclesiological discussion and also led to concrete changes in WCC practices, the best known of which is the change to decision-making by consensus. The Final Report of the SC contains five main themes, namely, ecclesiology, decision-making, worship/common prayer, membership and representation, and social and ethical issues. The main achievement of the SC was that it secured the Orthodox membership in the WCC. The ecclesiological conclusions made in the Final Report are twofold. On the one hand, it confirms that the very act of belonging to the WCC means the commitment to discuss the relationship between a church and churches. The SC recommended that baptism should be added as a criterion for membership in the WCC, and the member churches should continue to work towards the mutual recognition of each other s baptism. These elements strengthen the ecclesiological character of the WCC. On the other hand, when the Final Report discusses common prayer, the ecclesiological conclusions are much more cautious, and the ecclesiological neutrality of the WCC is emphasized several times. The SC repeatedly emphasized that the WCC is a fellowship of churches. The concept of koinonia, which has otherwise been important in recent ecclesiological questions, was not much applied by the SC. The comparison of the results of the SC to parallel ecclesiological documents of the WCC (Nature and Mission of the Church, Called to Be the One Church) shows that they all acknowledge the different ecclesiological starting points of the member churches, and, following that, a variety of legitimate views on the relation of the Church to the churches. Despite the change from preserving the koinonia to promises of eschatological koinonia, all the documents affirm that the goal of the ecumenical movement is still full, visible unity.

Importance of meridional circulation i flux transport dynamo: the possibility of a maunder-like grand minimum

Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo models. We have studied its importance on the period, the amplitude of the solar cycle, and also in producing Maunder-like grand minima in these models. First, we model the periods of the last 23 sunspot cycles by varying the meridional circulation speed. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then we find that most of the cycle amplitudes also get modeled up to some extent when we model the periods. Next, we propose that at the beginning of the Maunder minimum the amplitude of meridional circulation dropped to a low value and then after a few years it increased again. Several independent studies also favor this assumption. With this assumption, a diffusion-dominated dynamo is able to reproduce many important features of the Maunder minimum remarkably well. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then a slower meridional circulation means that the poloidal field gets more time to diffuse during its transport through the convection zone, making the dynamo weaker. This consequence helps to model both the cycle amplitudes and the Maunder-like minima. We, however, fail to reproduce these results if the dynamo is in an advection-dominated regime.

Hydrogen Storage Capacity of Carbon-Foams: Grand Canonical Monte Carlo Simulations

Hydrogen storage in the three-dimensional carbon foams is analyzed using classical grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations. The calculated storage capacities of the foams meet the material-based DOE targets and are comparable to the capacities of a bundle of well-separated similar diameter open nanotubes. The pore sizes in the foams are optimized for the best hydrogen uptake. The capacity depends sensitively on the C-H-2 interaction potential, and therefore, the results are presented for its ``weak'' and ``strong'' choices, to offer the lower and upper bounds for the expected capacities. Furthermore, quantum effects on the effective C-H-2 as well as H-2-H-2 interaction potentials are considered. We find that the quantum effects noticeably change the adsorption properties of foams and must be accounted for even at room temperature.

Dynamo models of grand minima

Since a universally accepted dynamo model of grand minima does not exist at the present time, we concentrate on the physical processes which may be behind the grand minima. After summarizing the relevant observational data, we make the point that, while the usual sources of irregularities of solar cycles may be sufficient to cause a grand minimum, the solar dynamo has to operate somewhat differently from the normal to bring the Sun out of the grand minimum. We then consider three possible sources of irregularities in the solar dynamo: (i) nonlinear effects; (ii) fluctuations in the poloidal field generation process; (iii) fluctuations in the meridional circulation. We conclude that (i) is unlikely to be the cause behind grand minima, but a combination of (ii) and (iii) may cause them. If fluctuations make the poloidal field fall much below the average or make the meridional circulation significantly weaker, then the Sun may be pushed into a grand minimum.

Origin of grand minima in Sunspot cycles

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C-14 and Be-10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11 000 yrs, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question of how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and in the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of the last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.

Fluctuations in the alpha-effect and grand solar minima

The parameters of a special type of alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates support the presence of the Babcock-Leighton alpha-effect on the Sun. Fluctuations of the alpha-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation amplitude appreciably exceeds themean value, and the characteristic time for the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation. Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numericalmodel for the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the magnetic cycles on time scales of centuries and millennia. The calculated statistical characteristics of the grand solar minima and maxima agree with the data on solar activity over the Holocene.

Beam polarization effects in the radiative production of lightest neutralinos in e(+)e(-) collisions in supersymmetric grand unified models

We study the production of the lightest neutralinos in the process e(+)e(-) -> chi(0)(1)chi(0)(1)gamma in supersymmetric grand unified models for the International Linear Collider energies with longitudinally polarized beams. We consider cases where the standard model gauge group is unified into the grand unified gauge groups SU(5), or SO(10). We have carried out a comprehensive study of this process in the SU(5) and SO(10) grand unified theories which includes the QED radiative corrections. We compare and contrast the dependence of the signal cross section on the grand unified gauge group, and on the different representations of the grand unified gauge group, when the electron and positron beams are longitudinally polarized. To assess the feasibility of experimentally observing the radiative production process, we have also considered in detail the background to this process coming from the radiative neutrino production process e(+)e(-)-> nu(nu) over bar gamma with longitudinally polarized electron and positron beams. In addition we have also considered the supersymmetric background coming from the radiative production of scalar neutrinos in the process e(+)e(-) -> (nu) over tilde(nu) over tilde*gamma with longitudinally polarized beams. The process can be a major background to the radiative production of neutralinos when the scalar neutrinos decay invisibly.

Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles by using a flux transport solar dynamo model

We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an alpha-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this alpha-effect is suitably fine-tuned.

Role of gas in supporting grand spiral structure

The density wave theory for the grand-design two-armed spiral pattern in galaxies is successful in explaining several observed features. However, the long-term persistence of this spiral structure is a serious problem since the group transport would destroy it within about a billion years as shown in a classic paper by Toomre. In this paper, we include the low-velocity dispersion component, namely gas, on an equal footing with stars in the formulation of the density wave theory, and obtain the dispersion relation for this coupled system. We show that the inclusion of gas makes the group transport slower by a factor of few, thus allowing the pattern to persist longer - for several billion years. Though still less than the Hubble time, this helps in making the spiral structure more long-lived. Further we show that addition of gas is essential to get a stable wave for the observed pattern speed for the Galaxy, which otherwise is not possible for a one-component stellar disc.

A method for coupling the phase-field model based on a grand-potential formalism to thermodynamic databases

In this paper we derive an approach for the effective utilization of thermodynamic data in phase-field simulations. While the most widely used methodology for multi-component alloys is following the work by Eiken et al. (2006), wherein, an extrapolative scheme is utilized in conjunction with the TQ interface for deriving the driving force for phase transformation, a corresponding simplistic method based on the formulation of a parabolic free-energy model incorporating all the thermodynamics has been laid out for binary alloys in the work by Folch and Plapp (2005). In the following, we extend this latter approach for multi-component alloys in the framework of the grand-potential formalism. The coupling is applied for the case of the binary eutectic solidification in the Cr-Ni alloy and two-phase solidification in the ternary eutectic alloy (Al-Cr-Ni). A thermodynamic justification entails the basis of the formulation and places it in context of the bigger picture of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estudio de la efectividad garrapaticida del compuesto Cypergan-15 en las razas Aberdeen Angus y Brahman en el departamento de Boaco, Nicaragua

El presente trabajo se realizó en la UPE Santa Fe de la Empresa Genética Agenor Gómez, localizada a 15 Km al Noreste de la ciudad de Boaco, Nicaragua. Evaluándose la efectividad del garrapaticida Cipergan-15 mediante el recuento del número de garrapatas vivas después de la aplicación de diferentes dosis (0.0, 0.5, 1.0 y 1.5 ml/lt de agua) en prueba In Vitro e In Vivo. En la primera, a periodos de recuentos de 3, 18, 24 y 42 hrs y en la última, a periodos de 1, 2, 3, 7 y 14 días después de la aplicación en las razas Angus y Brahrnan. Los resultados obtenidos en la prueba In Vitro demostraron que el producto posee efecto garrapaticida, alcanzando un 100% de control a concentraciones de 1.5 y 1.0 ml/lt de agua, al cabo de 3 y 24 hrs respectivamente. En el análisis de varianza para la prueba In Vivo, los resultad indican que existen diferencias significativas en el número de garrapatas vivas en cada una de las concentraciones estudiadas, exceptuando la comparación al séptimo dia de recuento entre los niveles de 1.0 ml/lt de agua y 1.5 ml/lt de agua. El efecto de raza. También resultó significativo en el 14avo día y la interacción raza-concentración a los 1, 2 y 14 días de recuentos. Al efectuarse la prueba de "t" para medias ajustadas se encontró que las concentraciones de 1.0 ml/lt de agua y 1.5 m1/lt de agua ejercen el mayor control en todo el periodo del ensayo. La concentración de 1.5 rnl/lt de agua, disminuye el número de garrapatas a cero a los 3 días post­ aplicación, manteniéndolas aún en el séptimo día y con promedios inferiores de 8 garrapatas en el 14avo día. La concentración de 1.0 ml/lt de agua disminuye el número de garrapatas a promedios inferiores de 2 a los 3 días, menores que 1 al 7mo día e inferiores a 16 a los 14 días en ambas razas. En cambio, en el grupo testigo, el número de garrapatas se incrementó a una tasa promedio de 37%. Los estimados de la concentración minina para mantener una población promedio de garrapatas por debajo de 20 aún en el 14avo día, resultó de 0.86 ml/lt de agua para la raza Brahman y de 0.96 ml/lt de agua para la raza Angus.

Evaluation of the conventional surveying equipment applied to deformation analysis of heritage buildings. A case study: the bell tower of Santa María la Blanca church in Agoncillo (La Rioja, Spain)

Contributed to: "Measuring the Changes": 13th FIG International Symposium on Deformation Measurements and Analysis; 4th IAG Symposium on Geodesy for Geotechnical and Structural Enginering (Lisbon, Portugal, May 12-15, 2008).

Geometric documentation and reconstruction of the church of the Monastery of San Prudencio (La Rioja, Spain)

[EN] Data contained in this record come from the following accademic activity (from which it is possible to locate additional records related with the Monastery):