Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

This paper explores biases in the elicitation of utilities under risk and the contribution that generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these biases. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studies, prospect theory was most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expected utility was in comparisons between a riskless and a risky prospect(riskless-risk methods). We observed no improvement over expected utility in comparisons between two risky prospects (risk-risk methods). An explanation why we found no improvement of prospect theory over expected utility in risk-risk methods may be that there was less overweighting of small probabilities in our study than has commonly been observed.

A new approach to accurate measurement of uniaxial joint angles based on a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes.

A new method of measuring joint angle using a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes is presented. The method proposes a minimal sensor configuration with one sensor module mounted on each segment. The model is based on estimating the acceleration of the joint center of rotation by placing a pair of virtual sensors on the adjacent segments at the center of rotation. In the proposed technique, joint angles are found without the need for integration, so absolute angles can be obtained which are free from any source of drift. The model considers anatomical aspects and is personalized for each subject prior to each measurement. The method was validated by measuring knee flexion-extension angles of eight subjects, walking at three different speeds, and comparing the results with a reference motion measurement system. The results are very close to those of the reference system presenting very small errors (rms = 1.3, mean = 0.2, SD = 1.1 deg) and excellent correlation coefficients (0.997). The algorithm is able to provide joint angles in real-time, and ready for use in gait analysis. Technically, the system is portable, easily mountable, and can be used for long term monitoring without hindrance to natural activities.

Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specificationof the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use someto identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. Theapproach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. Themethod is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers)in a standard class of models.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Rapid Tax-Refund Loans A very costly way to gain just a few days on tax refunds, January 2008

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Rapid Tax-Refund Loans A very costly way to gain just a few days on tax refunds.

Strategy communication and measurement systems

Organizations often face the challenge of communicating their strategiesto local decision makers. The difficulty presents itself in finding away to measure performance wich meaningfully conveys how to implement theorganization's strategy at local levels. I show that organizations solvethis communication problem by combining performance measures in such away that performance gains come closest to mimicking value-added asdefined by the organization's strategy. I further show how organizationsrebalance performance measures in response to changes in their strategies.Applications to the design of performance metrics, gaming, and divisionalperformance evaluation are considered. The paper also suggests severalempirical ways to evaluate the practical importance of the communicationrole of measurement systems.

The gain-loss asymmetry and single-self preferences

Kahneman and Tversky asserted a fundamental asymmetry between gains and losses, namely a reflection effect which occurs when an individual prefers a sure gain of $ pz to anuncertain gain of $ z with probability p, while preferring an uncertain loss of $z with probability p to a certain loss of $ pz.We focus on this class of choices (actuarially fair), and explore the extent to which thereflection effect, understood as occurring at a range of wealth levels, is compatible with single-self preferences.We decompose the reflection effect into two components, a probability switch effect,which is compatible with single-self preferences, and a translation effect, which is not. To argue the first point, we analyze two classes of single-self, nonexpected utility preferences, which we label homothetic and weakly homothetic. In both cases, we characterize the switch effect as well as the dependence of risk attitudes on wealth.We also discuss two types of utility functions of a form reminiscent of expected utility but with distorted probabilities. Type I always distorts the probability of the worst outcome downwards, yielding attraction to small risks for all probabilities. Type II distorts low probabilities upwards, and high probabilities downwards, implying risk aversion when the probability of the worst outcome is low. By combining homothetic or weak homothetic preferences with Type I or Type II distortion functions, we present four explicit examples: All four display a switch effect and, hence, a form of reflection effect consistent a single self preferences.

Measurement and explanation of socioeconomic inequality in health with longitudinal data

This paper presents a method for the measurement of changes in health inequality and income-related health inequality over time in a population.For pure health inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) andincome-related health inequality (as measured by the concentration index),we show how measures derived from longitudinal data can be related tocross section Gini and concentration indices that have been typicallyreported in the literature to date, along with measures of health mobilityinspired by the literature on income mobility. We also show how thesemeasures of mobility can be usefully decomposed into the contributions ofdifferent covariates. We apply these methods to investigate the degree ofincome-related mobility in the GHQ measure of psychological well-being inthe first nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Thisreveals that dynamics increase the absolute value of the concentrationindex of GHQ on income by 10%.

Biased quantitative measurement of interval ordered homothetic preferences

We represent interval ordered homothetic preferences with a quantitative homothetic utility function and a multiplicative bias. When preferences are weakly ordered (i.e. when indifference is transitive), such a bias equals 1. When indifference is intransitive, the biasing factor is a positive function smaller than 1 and measures a threshold of indifference. We show that the bias is constant if and only if preferences are semiordered, and we identify conditions ensuring a linear utility function. We illustrate our approach with indifference sets on a two dimensional commodity space.

Validation of methane measurement using headspace-GC-MS and quantification by a stable isotope-labeled internal standard generated in situ.

A previous study has shown the possibility to identify methane (CH4 ) using headspace-GC-MS and quantify it with a stable isotope as internal standard. The main drawback of the GC-MS methods discussed in literature for CH4 measurement is the absence of a specific internal standard necessary to perform quantification. However, it becomes essential to develop a safer method to limit the manipulation of gaseous CH4 and to precisely control the injected amount of gas for spiking and calibration by comparison with external calibration. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labeled gas, we have chosen to generate a labeled gas as an internal standard in a vial on the basis of the formation of CH4 by the reaction of Grignard reagent methylmagnesium chloride with deuterated water. This method allows precise measurement of CH4 concentrations in gaseous sample as well as in a solid or a liquid sample after a thermodesorption step in a headspace vial. A full accuracy profile validation of this method is then presented.

Measurement of ß-tryptase in postmortem serum, pericardial fluid, urine and vitreous humor in forensic setting

L'activation des mastocytes se produit dans plusieurs conditions pathologiques et est principalement observée chez des patients développant une réaction anaphylactique. Dans la pratique clinique, la mesure de l'histamine et de ses métabolites dans le plasma et dans l'urine du patient peut être effectuée et montre parfois des résultats aussi précis que la mesure de la beta-tryptase dans le sang lorsqu'il est nécessaire de confirmer une activation mastocytaire. En revanche, la mesure de la beta tryptase dans l'urine dans un but diagnostic n'a que rarement été effectuée sur des personnes vivantes et a montré des résultats contradictoires. Dans le domaine de la médecine légale, la mesure de la beta-tryptase dans un but diagnostic est effectuée dans le sérum postmortem obtenu à partir de sang prélevé au niveau fémoral. Cependant, le sang peut être partiellement ou complètement indisponible dans certains cas spécifiques, dans les autopsies de nourrissons ou de corps sévèrement mutilés par exemple. Un des buts de notre étude est d'évaluer la pertinence de la mesure de la beta-tryptase dans des échantillons biologiques alternatifs, à savoir dans l'urine, l'humeur vitrée et le liquide péricardique. Pour cela nous avons sélectionné 94 cas d'autopsies comprenant 6 cas de réaction anaphylactique suite à l'administration de produits de contraste radiologique, 10 cas d'hypothermie, 10 cas d'acidocétose diabétique, 10 cas de suicide par arme à feu, 18 cas de décès consécutif à une injection d'héroïne, 10 cas de décès traumatiques, 10 cas de mort subite avec peu ou pas d'athérosclérose coronarienne, 10 cas de décès avec une athérosclérose coronarienne sévère mais sans signe d'infarctus du myocarde et 10 cas de décès consécutif à un infarctus du myocarde avec une athérosclérose coronarienne sévère. Dans tous les cas de réaction anaphylactique suite à l'administration de produit de contraste radiologique, les concentrations de beta-tryptase, mesurées dans le sérum postmortem et dans le liquide péricardique, ont montré des valeurs plus élevées que le seuil clinique de référence (11 ng/l) et le seuil postmortem de référence (45 ng/l). La concentration de beta-tryptase mesurée dans l'urine et l'humeur vitrée a montré des valeurs inférieures au seuil clinique dans tous les cas de notre étude. La mesure de la concentration de beta tryptase dans le liquide péricardique semble donc une alternative valable à la mesure dans le sérum postmortem, lorsque le sang fémoral n'est pas disponible durant l'autopsie, afin de poser un diagnostic de réaction anaphylactique.

Asset prices and the measurement of wealth and saving

The paper defines concepts of real wealth and saving which take into account the intertemporal index number problem that results from changing interest rates. Unlike conventional measures of real wealth, which are based on the market value of assets and ignore the index number problem, the new measure correctly reflects the changes in the welfare of households over time. An empirically operational approximation to the theoretical measure is provided and applied to US data. A major empirical finding is that US real financial wealth increased strongly in the 1980s, much more than is revealed by the market value of assets.

Correspondence analysis and categorical conjoint measurement

We show the equivalence between the use of correspondence analysis (CA)of concadenated tables and the application of a particular version ofconjoint analysis called categorical conjoint measurement (CCM). Theconnection is established using canonical correlation (CC). The second part introduces the interaction e¤ects in all three variants of theanalysis and shows how to pass between the results of each analysis.

Random measurement error and regression dilution bias.

Summary points: - The bias introduced by random measurement error will be different depending on whether the error is in an exposure variable (risk factor) or outcome variable (disease) - Random measurement error in an exposure variable will bias the estimates of regression slope coefficients towards the null - Random measurement error in an outcome variable will instead increase the standard error of the estimates and widen the corresponding confidence intervals, making results less likely to be statistically significant - Increasing sample size will help minimise the impact of measurement error in an outcome variable but will only make estimates more precisely wrong when the error is in an exposure variable