Hedge-rahastojen menestyksen pysyvyys ja suhteellinen suoriutuminen sijoittajan näkökulmasta

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the long-term performance persistence and relative performance of hedge funds during bear and bull market periods. Performance metrics applied for fund rankings are raw return, Sharpe ratio, mean variance ratio and strategy distinctiveness index calculated of the original and clustered data correspondingly. Four different length combinations for selection and holding periods are employed. The persistence is examined using decile and quartile portfolio formatting approach and on the basis of Sharpe ratio and SKASR as performance metrics. The relative performance persistence is examined by comparing hedge portfolio returns during varying stock market conditions. The data is gathered from a private database covering 10,789 hedge funds and time horizon is set from January 1990 to December 2012. The results of this thesis suggest that long-term performance persistence of the hedge funds exists. The degree of persistence also depends on the performance metrics employed and length combination of selection and holding periods. The best results of performance persistence were obtained in the decile portfolio analysis on the basis of Sharpe ratio rankings for combination of 12-month selection period and the holding period of equal length. The results also suggest that the best performance persistence occurs in the Event Driven and Multi strategies. Dummy regression analysis shows that a relationship between hedge funds and stock market returns exists. Based on the results, Dedicated Short Bias, Global Macro, Managed Futures and Other strategies perform well during bear market periods. The results also indicate that the Market Neutral strategy is not absolutely market neutral and the Event Driven strategy has the best performance among all hedge strategies.

Creating risk measurement model to project portfolio management in construction company

This thesis was carried out as a case study of a company YIT in order to clarify the sev-erest risks for the company and to build a method for project portfolio evaluation. The target organization creates new living environment by constructing residential buildings, business premises, infrastructure and entire areas worth for EUR 1.9 billion in the year 2013. Company has noted project portfolio management needs more information about the structure of project portfolio and possible influences of market shock situation. With interviews have been evaluated risks with biggest influence and most appropriate metrics to examine. The major risks for the company were evaluated by interviewing the executive staff. At the same time, the most appropriate risk metrics were considered. At the moment sales risk was estimated to have biggest impact on company‟s business. Therefore project port-folio evaluation model was created and three different scenarios for company‟s future were created in order to identify the scale of possible market shock situation. The created model is tested with public and descriptive figures of YIT in a one-year-long market shock and the impact on different metrics was evaluated. Study was conducted using con-structive research methodology. Results indicate that company has notable sales risk in certain sections of business portfolio.

Liquidity and Asset Pricing in the French Stock Market

This thesis investigates pricing of liquidity in the French stock market. The study covers 835 ordinary shares traded in the period of 1996-2014 on Paris Euronext. The author utilizes the Liquidity-Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) recently developed by Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to test whether liquidity level and risks significantly affect stock returns. Three different liquidity measures – Amihud, FHT, and PQS – are incorporated into the model to find any difference between the results they could provide. It appears that the findings largely depend on the liquidity measure used. In general the results exhibit more evidence for insignificant influence of liquidity level and risks as well as market risk on stock returns. The similar conclusion was reported earlier by Lee (2011) for several regions, including France. This finding of the thesis, however, is not consistent across all the liquidity measures. Nevertheless, the difference in the results between these measures provides new insight to the existing literature on this topic. The Amihud-based findings might indicate that market resiliency is not priced in the French stock market. At the same time the contradicting results from FHT and PQS provide some foundation for the hypothesis that one of two leftover liquidity dimensions – market depth or breadth – could significantly affect stock returns. Therefore, the thesis’ findings suggest a conjecture that different liquidity dimensions have different impacts on stock returns.

Together Everyone Achieves More? Herding Behavior in the Finnish Stock Market

This thesis examines whether or not Finnish stock markets has herding behavior. Sample data is from 2004 to 2013. Including total of 2516 market days. Market wide herding, up and down market herding, extreme price movement herding and turnover volume herding are measured in this thesis. Methods used in this thesis are cross-sectional absolute dispersion and cross-sectional standard deviation. This thesis found no signs of herding in the Finnish stock market.

Tunnuslukuperusteisten sijoitusstrategioiden menestys Suomen osakemarkkinoilla finanssikriisin aikana

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää ja analysoida tunnuslukuihin perustuvien sijoitusstrategioiden tuottoja voimakkailla lasku- ja nousumarkkinoilla finanssikriisin aikana. Säilyttääkö arvostrategian alhaisten tunnuslukujen portfolio arvonsa laskukausilla parhaiten tai tuottaako kasvustrategia vahvalla nousukaudella parhaan tuoton? Miten yhtiöiden taloudellinen asema vaikuttaa tuottoihin jyrkillä laskukausilla ja nousukaudella? Tutkimusaineistona ovat julkisesti noteeratut Helsingin pörssin yhtiöt aikavälillä 13.7.2007 - 4.10.2011. Ajanjaksoon mahtuu kaksi laskukautta ja nousukausi. Yhtiöt on jaettu tunnuslukujen arvostuksen mukaan viiteen portfolioon. Tutkittavat tunnusluvut ovat P/E-luku, P/B-luku, EV/Ebit-luku, oman pääoman tuotto, omavaraisuusaste, current ratio ja Grahamin luku. Tulosten perusteella arvostrategia menestyi hyvin nousukaudella niin P/E-luvun kuin P/B-luvun kategorian tuotoissa, mutta ei erottunut edukseen laskukausilla. Huomattavaa oli myös korkean omavaraisuuden yhtiöiden voimakas defensiivisyys molemmilla laskukausilla. Toisaalta ne olivat myös nousukaudella vähätuottoisia.

Osinkosuhteen, osinkotuoton ja omavaraisuusasteen sijoitusstrateginen hyödynnettävyys Suomen osakemarkkinoilla

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää osinkosuhteen, osinkotuoton ja omavaraisuusasteen vaikutus osakkeesta saatavaan kokonaistuottoon Suomenosakemarkkinoilla vuosina 2002–2013. Muuttujien kausaliteettisuhde kokonaistuottoon selvitetään regressioanalyysilla. Portfolioanalyysin avulla tutkitaan valittujen tunnuslukujen toimivuutta sijoitusstrategiana. Tutkimuksessa muodostetaan myös osinkosuhteen ja osinkotuoton yhdistelmänä tunnusluku, jolla pyritään maksimoimaan sijoittajan saama tuotto. Empiiriset tulokset osoittivat, että sijoittaja pystyy saavuttamaan ylituottoja hyödyntämällä edellä mainittuja tunnuslukuja osakevalinnassa. Osinkotuoton ja osakkeen kokonaistuoton välillä havaittiin positiivinen lineaarinen korrelaatio. Portfolioanalyysin perusteella sekä omavaraisuusasteen että osinkosuhteen osalta vaikutus sijoittajan saamaan riskisuhteutettuun kokonaistuottoon on ei-lineaarinen. Valittuja tunnuslukuja ja menetelmiä hyödyntäen sijoittaja saa parhaimman riskisuhteutetun tuoton valitsemalla sijoitussalkkuunsa osakkeita, joiden osinkosuhteen arvo sijoittuu toiseksi ylimpään kvartiiliin sekä osakkeita, joiden osinkotuotto on korkea ja omavaraisuusaste on samanaikaisesti alhainen.

Do retail investors use technical analysis? Evidence from Stuttgart stock exchange.

Tutkielma käyttää automaattista kuviontunnistusalgoritmia ja yleisiä kahden liukuvan keskiarvon leikkauspiste –sääntöjä selittääkseen Stuttgartin pörssissä toimivien yksityissijoittajien myynti-osto –epätasapainoa ja siten vastatakseen kysymykseen ”käyttävätkö yksityissijoittajat teknisen analyysin menetelmiä kaupankäyntipäätöstensä perustana?” Perusolettama sijoittajien käyttäytymisestä ja teknisen analyysin tuottavuudesta tehtyjen tutkimusten perusteella oli, että yksityissijoittajat käyttäisivät teknisen analyysin metodeja. Empiirinen tutkimus, jonka aineistona on DAX30 yhtiöiden data vuosilta 2009 – 2013, ei tuottanut riittävän selkeää vastausta tutkimuskysymykseen. Heikko todistusaineisto näyttää kuitenkin osoittavan, että yksityissijoittajat muuttavat kaupankäyntikäyttäytymistänsä eräiden kuvioiden ja leikkauspistesääntöjen ohjastamaan suuntaan.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Stability Analysis in Multicriteria Discrete Portfolio Optimization.

Almost every problem of design, planning and management in the technical and organizational systems has several conflicting goals or interests. Nowadays, multicriteria decision models represent a rapidly developing area of operation research. While solving practical optimization problems, it is necessary to take into account various kinds of uncertainty due to lack of data, inadequacy of mathematical models to real-time processes, calculation errors, etc. In practice, this uncertainty usually leads to undesirable outcomes where the solutions are very sensitive to any changes in the input parameters. An example is the investment managing. Stability analysis of multicriteria discrete optimization problems investigates how the found solutions behave in response to changes in the initial data (input parameters). This thesis is devoted to the stability analysis in the problem of selecting investment project portfolios, which are optimized by considering different types of risk and efficiency of the investment projects. The stability analysis is carried out in two approaches: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative approach describes the behavior of solutions in conditions with small perturbations in the initial data. The stability of solutions is defined in terms of existence a neighborhood in the initial data space. Any perturbed problem from this neighborhood has stability with respect to the set of efficient solutions of the initial problem. The other approach in the stability analysis studies quantitative measures such as stability radius. This approach gives information about the limits of perturbations in the input parameters, which do not lead to changes in the set of efficient solutions. In present thesis several results were obtained including attainable bounds for the stability radii of Pareto optimal and lexicographically optimal portfolios of the investment problem with Savage's, Wald's criteria and criteria of extreme optimism. In addition, special classes of the problem when the stability radii are expressed by the formulae were indicated. Investigations were completed using different combinations of Chebyshev's, Manhattan and Hölder's metrics, which allowed monitoring input parameters perturbations differently.

Regime-Switching in the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Research has highlighted the adequacy of Markov regime-switching model to address dynamic behavior in long term stock market movements. Employing a purposed Extended regime-switching GARCH(1,1) model, this thesis further investigates the regime dependent nonlinear relationship between changes in oil price and stock market volatility in Saudi Arabia, Norway and Singapore for the period of 2001-2014. Market selection is prioritized to national dependency on oil export or import, which also rationalizes the fitness of implied bivariate volatility model. Among two regimes identified by the mean model, high stock market return-low volatility regime reflects the stable economic growth periods. The other regime characterized by low stock market return-high volatility coincides with episodes of recession and downturn. Moreover, results of volatility model provide the evidence that shocks in stock markets are less persistent during the high volatility regime. While accelerated oil price rises the stock market volatility during recessions, it reduces the stock market risk during normal growth periods in Singapore. In contrast, oil price showed no significant notable impact on stock market volatility of target oil-exporting countries in either of the volatility regime. In light to these results, international investors and policy makers could benefit the risk management in relation to oil price fluctuation.

Portfolio as an Indicator of Young Learners’ English Proficiency in Mainstream Language Instruction (EFL) and Bilingual Content Instruction (CLIL)

Tämä soveltavan kielitieteen ja kielitaidon arvioinnin toimintatutkimus tarkasteli kieliportfolion ominaisuuksia ja mahdollisuuksia nuorten oppijoiden englannin kielen arvioinnissa kahdessa eri oppimiskontekstissa: englanti oppiaineena (EFL) ja kaksikielinen sisällönopetus (CLIL). Tutkielman itsenäiset, kahteen eri englannin kielen rekisteriin (arkikieli ja akateeminen kieli) kohdistuneet portfoliokokeilut olivat erillisiä tapaustutkimuksia. Molemmat portfoliot perustuivat väljästi Eurooppalaiseen kielisalkkumalliin, ja ne olivat osa tutkielmantekijän luokkaopetusta ja -toimintaa. EFL -portfoliokokeilu 9-10-vuotiaille kolmasluokkalaisille toteutettiin marraskuun 2011 ja toukokuun 2012 välisenä aikana, kun CLIL -portfoliokokeilu n. 7-9-vuotiallle ensimmäisen ja toisen luokan oppilaille kesti kaksi lukuvuotta 2012–2014. Molemmissa kokeiluissa myös oppilaiden vanhemmat kuuluivat tutkimusjoukkoon, samoin CLIL -portfolion toteutuksessa avustaneet ja opettajanäkökulmaa edustaneet opettajaopiskelijat. Portfoliokokeilun aloitti myös kaksi muuta CLIL -opettajaa, mutta kumpikin kokeilu päättyi alkuvaiheeseensa. Tarkemman tarkastelun kohteina olivat tutkimuksen osallistujien kokemukset ja mielipiteet portfoliokokeiluista. Erityisesti tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten informatiivisena englannin kielitaidon indikaattorina kieliportfoliota pidettiin. Myös kehitysehdotuksia kerättiin. Trianguloitu aineisto koottiin sekä puolistrukturoiduin kyselyin että vapaaehtoisin teemahaastatteluin, jotka äänitettiin. EFL -aineisto koostui 18 oppilaskyselystä, 17 huoltajakyselystä ja 7 oppilashaastattelusta. CLIL -aineistoon sisältyi 19 oppilaskyselyä, 18 huoltajakyselyä, 7 oppilashaastattelua ja yksi opettajaopiskelijoiden (N=3) ryhmähaastattelu. Aineisto analysoitiin pääosin kvalitatiivisin menetelmin temaattisen sisältöanalyysin keinoin, mutta myös laskien frekvenssejä ja prosenttisosuuksia. Osallistujien mielipiteet ja kokemukset olivat hyvin samankaltaiset ja positiiviset kummassakin portfoliokokeilussa. Merkittävä enemmistö sekä oppilaista että huoltajista koki, että portfolion avulla on mahdollista osoittaa englannin kielitaitoa ja sen kehittymistä. Oppilaat kuvailivat portfoliotyötä hauskaksi ja kivaksi, ja heidän mielestään portfoliotehtävien pitäisi olla tarpeeksi haastavia, sisältää taiteellisia ja luovia elementtejä sekä kohdistua tuttuihin, mielenkiintoisiin aiheisiin. He totesivat, että portfolion avulla voi oppia lisää kieltä. Vanhempien mielestä portfolio kertoo koulun vieraiksi jääneistä oppisisällöistä, auttaa ymmärtämään lapsen ajatusmaailmaa ja motivaatiotasoa sekä paljastaa heidän kielitaidostaan uusia ulottuvuuksia. Opettajaopiskelijat havaitsivat, että portfolion avulla voi tutustua oppilaiden kieli- ja kulttuuritaustoihin sekä kartoittaa heidän kielellisiä tarpeitaan. Tämän tutkielman teoreettisen tarkastelun ja tulosten mukaan kieliportfolio tukee erinomaisesti uuden Perusopetuksen Opetussuunnitelman (NCC 2014) tavoitteita ja arvioinnin uudistuspyrkimyksiä sekä lainsäädännön arvioinnille asettamia edellytyksiä. Portfolio on erittäin suositeltava nuorten oppijoiden kielitaidon arviointimenetelmä perinteisten rinnalle.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.