Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, but which are predicted to provide sub-optimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

A role for hippocampal PSA-NCAM and NMDA-NR2B receptor function in flavonoid-induced spatial memory improvements in young rats

The increase in incidence and prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases highlights the need for a more comprehensive understanding of how food components may affect neural systems. In particular, flavonoids have been recognized as promising agents capable of influencing different aspects of synaptic plasticity resulting in improvements in memory and learning in both animals and humans. Our previous studies highlight the efficacy of flavonoids in reversing memory impairments in aged rats, yet little is known about the effects of these compounds in healthy animals, particularly with respect to the molecular mechanisms by which flavonoids might alter the underlying synaptic modifications responsible for behavioral changes. We demonstrate that a 3-week intervention with two dietary doses of flavonoids (Dose I: 8.7 mg/day and Dose II: 17.4 mg/day) facilitates spatial memory acquisition and consolidation (24 recall) (p < 0.05) in young healthy rats. We show for the first time that these behavioral improvements are linked to increased levels in the polysialylated form of the neural adhesion molecule (PSA-NCAM) in the dentate gyrus (DG) of the hippocampus, which is known to be required for the establishment of durable memories. We observed parallel increases in hippocampal NMDA receptors containing the NR2B subunit for both 8.7 mg/day (p < 0.05) and 17.4 mg/day (p < 0.001) doses, suggesting an enhancement of glutamate signaling following flavonoid intervention. This is further strengthened by the simultaneous modulation of hippocampal ERK/CREB/BDNF signaling and the activation of the Akt/mTOR/Arc pathway, which are crucial in inducing changes in the strength of hippocampal synaptic connections that underlie learning. Collectively, the present data supports a new role for PSA-NCAM and NMDA-NR2B receptor on flavonoid-induced improvements in learning and memory, contributing further to the growing body of evidence suggesting beneficial effects of flavonoids in cognition and brain health.

Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. Weather forecasts using multiple NWPs from various weather centres implemented on catchment hydrology can provide significantly improved early flood warning. The availability of global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the development of state-of-the-art early flood forecasting systems. This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England. For the first time, a research attempt is made to set up a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database. The study shows that precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial precipitation variability on such a comparatively small catchment, which indicates need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregating techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large and implies a significant level of uncertainties. Nevertheless, the results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation.

Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Categories & order systems: Claude Parent and The Serving Library intersections of architecture, art and editorial design

This paper discusses the work of Claude Parent and The Serving Library, considering the critiques generated by their intersecting of architecture, art and editorial design. Through focus on the ways in which hosting environment, architecture and forms of expanded publishing can serve to dissolve disciplinary boundaries and activities of production, spectatorship and reception, it draws on the lineage of 1960s/70s Conceptual Art in considering these practices as a means through which to escape medium specificity and spatial confinement. Relationships between actual and virtual space are then read against this broadening of aesthetic ideas and the theory of critical modernity.

Temporal and spatial variability of surface fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea

Three land-fast ice stations (one of them was the Finnish research ice breaker Aranda) and the German research aircraft Falcon were applied to measure the turbulent and radiation fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea during the Baltic Air-Sea-Ice Study (BASIS) field experiment from 16 February to 6 March 1998. The temporal and spatial variability of the surface fluxes is discussed. Synoptic weather systems passed the experimental area in a rapid sequence and dominated the conditions (wind speed, airsurface temperature difference, cloud field) for the variability of the turbulent and radiation fluxes. At the ice stations, the largest upward sensible heat fluxes of about 100 Wm�2 were measured during the passage of a cold front when the air cooled faster (�5 K per hour) than the surface. The largest downward flux of about �200 Wm�2 occurred during warm air advection when the air temperature reached +10�C but the surface temperature remained at 0�C. Spatial variability of fluxes was observed from the small scale (scale of ice floes and open water spots) to the mesoscale (width of the ice edge zone). The degree of spatial variability depends on the synoptic situation: during melting conditions downward heat fluxes were the same over ice and open water, whereas during strong cold-air advection upward heat fluxes differed by more than 100 Wm�2. A remarkable amount of grey ice with intermediate surface temperature was observed. The ice in the Baltic Sea cannot be described by one ice type only.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - I. Systems with a more massive outer planet

We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.

Blowout bifurcation and spatial mode excitation in the bubbling transition to turbulence

The transition to turbulence (spatio-temporal chaos) in a wide class of spatially extended dynamical system is due to the loss of transversal stability of a chaotic attractor lying on a homogeneous manifold (in the Fourier phase space of the system) causing spatial mode excitation Since the latter manifests as intermittent spikes this has been called a bubbling transition We present numerical evidences that this transition occurs due to the so called blowout bifurcation whereby the attractor as a whole loses transversal stability and becomes a chaotic saddle We used a nonlinear three-wave interacting model with spatial diffusion as an example of this transition (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Bubbling transition to spatial mode excitation in an extended dynamical system

We investigated the transition to spatio-temporal chaos in spatially extended nonlinear dynamical systems possessing an invariant subspace with a low-dimensional attractor. When the latter is chaotic and the subspace is transversely stable we have a spatially homogeneous state only. The onset of spatio-temporal chaos, i.e. the excitation of spatially inhomogeneous modes, occur through the loss of transversal stability of some unstable periodic orbit embedded in the chaotic attractor lying in the invariant subspace. This is a bubbling transition, since there is a switching between spatially homogeneous and nonhomogeneous states with statistical properties of on-off intermittency. Hence the onset of spatio-temporal chaos depends critically both on the existence of a chaotic attractor in the invariant subspace and its being transversely stable or unstable. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Instability of equilibrium points of some Lagrangian systems

In this work we show that, if L is a natural Lagrangian system such that the k-jet of the potential energy ensures it does not have a minimum at the equilibrium and such that its Hessian has rank at least n - 2, then there is an asymptotic trajectory to the associated equilibrium point and so the equilibrium is unstable. This applies, in particular, to analytic potentials with a saddle point and a Hessian with at most 2 null eigenvalues. The result is proven for Lagrangians in a specific form, and we show that the class of Lagrangians we are interested can be taken into this specific form by a subtle change of spatial coordinates. We also consider the extension of this results to systems subjected to gyroscopic forces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elementary Petri net inside RFID distributed database (PNRD)

Usually, a Petri net is applied as an RFID model tool. This paper, otherwise, presents another approach to the Petri net concerning RFID systems. This approach, called elementary Petri net inside an RFID distributed database, or PNRD, is the first step to improve RFID and control systems integration, based on a formal data structure to identify and update the product state in real-time process execution, allowing automatic discovery of unexpected events during tag data capture. There are two main features in this approach: to use RFID tags as the object process expected database and last product state identification; and to apply Petri net analysis to automatically update the last product state registry during reader data capture. RFID reader data capture can be viewed, in Petri nets, as a direct analysis of locality for a specific transition that holds in a specific workflow. Following this direction, RFID readers storage Petri net control vector list related to each tag id is expected to be perceived. This paper presents PNRD cornerstones and a PNRD implementation example in software called DEMIS Distributed Environment in Manufacturing Information Systems.

New Improvements in Automatic Structure Elucidation Using the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and the SISTEMAT Expert Systems

This article describes the integration of the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and SISTEMAT expert systems that were both designed for the computer-assisted structure elucidation of small organic molecules. A first step has been achieved towards the linking of the SISTEMAT database with the LSD structure generator. The skeletal descriptions found by the SISTEMAT programs are now easily transferred to LSD as substructural constraints. Examples of the synergy between these expert systems are given for recently reported natural products.

Exploring The Spatial Relationships Between Human-Tiger Conflicts In Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra

Large-carnivores and humans are increasingly in conflict as humans encroach on their natural territory. As a result, many large-carnivore species have become endangered due to habitat destruction, prey reduction and retaliatory killings from conflicts. No global internet database, however, exists to document, monitor and evaluate these conflicts, particularly to take advantage of the growing spatial resources available. Using human-tiger conflicts in Malaysia and Sumatra as a case study, this project explores how such a database could be created. GIS was used to conduct multiple analyses on the data obtained about these conflicts. We conclude that a database would require data to be compiled according to a protocol based on these spatial scales: Point, Sub-State Polygon and Provincial.