Detecção de outliers espaciais: refinamento de similaridade e desempenho

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Computação - IBILCE

Aplicação de análise multicriterial para determinação de áreas prioritárias à recomposição florestal

Using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and taking into account its capability to analyze spatial data, a database of updated spatial data from the sub-basin of the Descalvado stream, Botucatu, SP, was developed to provide an evaluation and diagnosis of the area concerning land use and the degradation processes therein. Through GIS, priority areas for forest recovery were defined by Multicriteria Evaluation and using the Ordered Weighted Average method. The latter allows the decision maker to define the area to be recovered, facing limitation of resources, among one of the proposed scenarios, or do it in stages. The study showed that there are accelerated erosion processes in the headwaters of the springs of water bodies; there is also fragmentation of native vegetation, especially in hillside areas, and little presence of native vegetation in riparian areas. The application of the multicriteria analysis using the Ordered Weighted Average was important as it systematized and discriminated scenarios of priority for forest recovery.

Identificação e análise espacial das aglomerações produtivas do setor de confecções na região Sul

O artigo procura identificar e analisar a evolução das aglomerações produtivas do setor confeccionista no Sul do Brasil. Dois fatores alicerçam o procedimento metodológico: proximidade geográfica e concentração setorial, combinados por Análise Espacial de Concentração. O primeiro, proximidade geográfica, por meio da Análise Exploratória de Dados Espaciais, e o segundo, concentração setorial, por meio da construção do índice de Concentração normalizado. Os resultados evidenciaram a transposição positiva dos aglomerados. Além disso, verificou-se evolução para o Estado do Paraná, tanto em transborda mento como em concentração espacial. Observou-se estabilidade em spillover, mas com forte concentração, no Estado de Santa Catarina.

Fragmentação geopolítica: uma análise estrutural das propostas de separatismo no Brasil

Este trabalho tem por objetivo dar luz ao debate sobre a criação dos novos entes federativos, trazendo elementos objetivos sobre a caracterização socioeconômica dos novos espaços geopolíticos e seus respectivos papéis no novo contexto espacial do sistema inter-regional brasileiro. O artigo traz resultados inéditos para a discussão, buscando, inicialmente, identificar padrões hierárquicos e de dependência espacial e produtiva neste novo contexto federativo. Tais resultados subsidiama analise subsequente dos impactos da nova configuração das transferências constitucionais, que identifica pormeio de simulações comummodelo inter-regional de insumo-produto especialmente calibrado para as 33 regiões consideradas no estudo, não apenas os potenciais ganhadores e perdedores, mas também os mecanismos de interação espacial subjacentes a estes processos.

Análisis de la calidad del dato de un instrumento para la observación del ataque en balonmano playa

[ES] Se presenta el análisis de Calidad del Dato utilizado en la construcción de una herramienta de observación diseñada ad hoc. Se trata de un sistema mixto de formatos de campo y sistemas de categorías exhaustivas y mutuamente excluyentes (E/ME) que tiene como objetivo codificar la fase de ataque del balonmano playa. Se utilizan como criterios: minuto, marcador, zona de finalización y jugador que finaliza. Se han codificado 12 observaciones de selecciones nacionales absolutas masculinas. El análisis se ha realizado utilizando la concordancia consensuada (aproximación cualitativa de la calidad del dato), elaborando un archivo de detección de errores, calculando el índice Kappa de Cohen, los índices de correlación Tau-B de Kendall, Pearson y Spearman; y un análisis de Generalizabilidad. Los resultados de los coeficientes de correlación muestran un índice mínimo de .993, los índices Kappa de Cohen se sitúan en .917 y los índices de generalizabilidad son óptimos. Estos resultados aseguran que la herramienta de observación, además de tener un buen ajuste, permite registrar con fiabilidad y precisión.

Indagine delle proprietà statistiche di serie temporali di posizione applicata al caso della stazione permanente GPS della base Mario Zucchelli in Terra Vittoria (Antartide)

Da ormai sette anni la stazione permanente GPS di Baia Terranova acquisisce dati giornalieri che opportunamente elaborati consentono di contribuire alla comprensione della dinamica antartica e a verificare se modelli globali di natura geofisica siano aderenti all’area di interesse della stazione GPS permanente. Da ricerche bibliografiche condotte si è dedotto che una serie GPS presenta molteplici possibili perturbazioni principalmente dovute a errori nella modellizzazione di alcuni dati ancillari necessari al processamento. Non solo, da alcune analisi svolte, è emerso come tali serie temporali ricavate da rilievi geodetici, siano afflitte da differenti tipologie di rumore che possono alterare, se non opportunamente considerate, i parametri di interesse per le interpretazioni geofisiche del dato. Il lavoro di tesi consiste nel comprendere in che misura tali errori, possano incidere sui parametri dinamici che caratterizzano il moto della stazione permanente, facendo particolare riferimento alla velocità del punto sul quale la stazione è installata e sugli eventuali segnali periodici che possono essere individuati.

Entwicklung von computergestützten Hangstabilitätsmodellen zur Erstellung einer Gefahrenhinweiskarte für die Region Rheinhessen

Das Ziel der Arbeit war die Entwicklung computergestützter Methoden zur Erstellung einer Gefahrenhinweiskarte für die Region Rheinhessen, zur Minimierung der Hangrutschungsgefährdung. Dazu wurde mit Hilfe zweier statistischer Verfahren (Diskriminanzanalyse, Lo­gistische Regression) und einer Methode aus dem Bereich der Künstlichen Intelligenz (Fuzzy Logik) versucht, die potentielle Gefährdung auch solcher Hänge zu klassifizieren, die bis heute noch nicht durch Massenbewegungen aufgefallen sind. Da ingenieurgeologische und geotechnische Hanguntersuchungen aus Zeit und Kostengründen im regionalen Maßstab nicht möglich sind, wurde auf punktuell vorhandene Datenbestände zu einzelnen Rut­schungen des Winters 1981/82, die in einer Rutschungsdatenbank zu­sammengefaßt sind, zurückgegriffen, wobei die daraus gewonnenen Erkenntnisse über Prozeßmechanismen und auslösende Faktoren genutzt und in das jeweilige Modell integriert wurden. Flächenhafte Daten (Lithologie, Hangneigung, Landnutzung, etc.), die für die Berechnung der Hangstabilität notwendig sind, wurden durch Fernerkundungsmethoden, dem Digitalisieren von Karten und der Auswertung von Digitalen Geländemodellen (Reliefanalyse) gewonnen. Für eine weiterführende Untersuchung von einzelnen, als rutschgefährdet klassifi­zierten Bereichen der Gefahrenhinweiskarte, wurde am Beispiel eines Testgebietes, eine auf dem infinite-slope-stability Modell aufbauende Me­thode untersucht, die im Maßstabsbereich von Grundkarten (1:5000) auch geotechnische und hydrogeologische Parameter berücksichtigt und damit eine genauere, der jeweiligen klimatischen Situation angepaßte, Gefahrenabschätzung ermöglicht.

Three dimensional seismic imaging and earthquake locations in a complex, segmented fault region in Southern Apennines (Italy)

The southern Apennines of Italy have been experienced several destructive earthquakes both in historic and recent times. The present day seismicity, characterized by small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes, was used like a probe to obatin a deeper knowledge of the fault structures where the largest earthquakes occurred in the past. With the aim to infer a three dimensional seismic image both the problem of data quality and the selection of a reliable and robust tomographic inversion strategy have been faced. The data quality has been obtained to develop optimized procedures for the measurements of P- and S-wave arrival times, through the use of polarization filtering and to the application of a refined re-picking technique based on cross-correlation of waveforms. A technique of iterative tomographic inversion, linearized, damped combined with a strategy of multiscale inversion type has been adopted. The retrieved P-wave velocity model indicates the presence of a strong velocity variation along a direction orthogonal to the Apenninic chain. This variation defines two domains which are characterized by a relatively low and high velocity values. From the comparison between the inferred P-wave velocity model with a portion of a structural section available in literature, the high velocity body was correlated with the Apulia carbonatic platforms whereas the low velocity bodies was associated to the basinal deposits. The deduced Vp/Vs ratio shows that the ratio is lower than 1.8 in the shallower part of the model, while for depths ranging between 5 km and 12 km the ratio increases up to 2.1 in correspondence to the area of higher seismicity. This confirms that areas characterized by higher values are more prone to generate earthquakes as a response to the presence of fluids and higher pore-pressures.

Quantifying the OH radical by global scale NMHC measurements from the NOAA - ESRL cooperative flask sampling network

Summary PhD Thesis Jan Pollmann: This thesis focuses on global scale measurements of light reactive non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC), in the volatility range from ethane to toluene with a special focus on ethane, propane, isobutane, butane, isopentane and pentane. Even though they only occur at the ppt level (nmol mol-1) in the remote troposphere these species can yield insight into key atmospheric processes. An analytical method was developed and subsequently evaluated to analyze NMHC from the NOAA – ERSL cooperative air sampling network. Potential analytical interferences through other atmospheric trace gases (water vapor and ozone) were carefully examined. The analytical parameters accuracy and precision were analyzed in detail. It was proven that more than 90% of the data points meet the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) data quality objective. Trace gas measurements from 28 measurement stations were used to derive the global atmospheric distribution profile for 4 NMHC (ethane, propane, isobutane, butane). A close comparison of the derived ethane data with previously published reports showed that northern hemispheric ethane background mixing ratio declined by approximately 30% since 1990. No such change was observed for southern hemispheric ethane. The NMHC data and trace gas data supplied by NOAA ESRL were used to estimate local diurnal averaged hydroxyl radical (OH) mixing ratios by variability analysis. Comparison of the variability derived OH with directly measured OH and modeled OH mixing ratios were found in good agreement outside the tropics. Tropical OH was on average two times higher than predicted by the model. Variability analysis was used to assess the effect of chlorine radicals on atmospheric oxidation chemistry. It was found that Cl is probably not of significant relevance on a global scale.

Patterns of regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia

This doctoral thesis aims at contributing to the literature on transition economies focusing on the Russian Federations and in particular on regional income convergence and fertility patterns. The first two chapter deal with the issue of income convergence across regions. Chapter 1 provides an historical-institutional analysis of the period between the late years of the Soviet Union and the last decade of economic growth and a presentation of the sample with a description of gross regional product composition, agrarian or industrial vocation, labor. Chapter 2 contributes to the literature on exploratory spatial data analysis with a application to a panel of 77 regions in the period 1994-2008. It provides an analysis of spatial patterns and it extends the theoretical framework of growth regressions controlling for spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Chapter 3 analyses the national demographic patterns since 1960 and provides a review of the policies on maternity leave and family benefits. Data sources are the Statistical Yearbooks of USSR, the Statistical Yearbooks of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the Demographic Yearbooks of Russia. Chapter 4 analyses the demographic patterns in light of the theoretical framework of the Becker model, the Second Demographic Transition and an economic-crisis argument. With national data from 1960, the theoretically issue of the pro or countercyclical relation between income and fertility is graphically analyzed and discussed, together with female employment and education. With regional data after 1994 different panel data models are tested. Individual level data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey are employed using the logit model. Chapter 5 employs data from the Generations and Gender Survey by UNECE to focus on postponement and second births intentions. Postponement is studied through cohort analysis of mean maternal age at first birth, while the methodology used for second birth intentions is the ordered logit model.

Measurement of K(892)*0 resonance production in Pb-Pb collisions with the ALICE experiment at the LHC

The analysis of the K(892)*0 resonance production in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC is presented. The analysis is motivated by the interest in the measurement of short-lived resonances production that can provide insights on the properties of the medium produced in heavy-ion collisions both during its partonic (Quark-Gluon Plasma) and hadronic phase. This particular analysis exploits particle identification of the ALICE Time-Of-Flight detector. The ALICE experiment is presented, with focus on the performance of the Time-Of-Flight system. The aspects of calibration and data quality controls are discussed in detail, while illustrating the excellent and very stable performance of the system in different collision environments at the LHC. A full analysis of the K*0 resonance production is presented: from the resonance reconstruction to the determination of the efficiency and the systematic uncertainty. The results show that the analysis strategy discussed is a valid tool to measure the K∗0 up to intermediate momenta. Preliminary results on K*0 resonance production at the LHC are presented and confirmed to be a powerful tool to study the physics of ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Radar based improvements and diagnosis of the convective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model

In the last few years the resolution of numerical weather prediction (nwp) became higher and higher with the progresses of technology and knowledge. As a consequence, a great number of initial data became fundamental for a correct initialization of the models. The potential of radar observations has long been recognized for improving the initial conditions of high-resolution nwp models, while operational application becomes more frequent. The fact that many nwp centres have recently taken into operations convection-permitting forecast models, many of which assimilate radar data, emphasizes the need for an approach to providing quality information which is needed in order to avoid that radar errors degrade the model's initial conditions and, therefore, its forecasts. Environmental risks can can be related with various causes: meteorological, seismical, hydrological/hydraulic. Flash floods have horizontal dimension of 1-20 Km and can be inserted in mesoscale gamma subscale, this scale can be modeled only with nwp model with the highest resolution as the COSMO-2 model. One of the problems of modeling extreme convective events is related with the atmospheric initial conditions, in fact the scale dimension for the assimilation of atmospheric condition in an high resolution model is about 10 Km, a value too high for a correct representation of convection initial conditions. Assimilation of radar data with his resolution of about of Km every 5 or 10 minutes can be a solution for this problem. In this contribution a pragmatic and empirical approach to deriving a radar data quality description is proposed to be used in radar data assimilation and more specifically for the latent heat nudging (lhn) scheme. Later the the nvective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model are investigated through some case studies. Finally, this work shows some preliminary experiments of coupling of a high resolution meteorological model with an Hydrological one.

Il cambiamento della ruralità nell'Unione Europea. Tipologie, evoluzione e risposte alle politiche

Obiettivo del lavoro è migliorare la lettura della ruralità europea. A fronte delle profonde trasformazioni avvenute, oggi non è più possibile analizzare i territori rurali adottando un mero approccio dicotomico che semplicemente li distingua dalle città. Al contrario, il lavoro integra l’analisi degli aspetti socio-economici con quella degli elementi territoriali, esaltando le principali dimensioni che caratterizzano le tante tipologie di ruralità oggi presenti in Europa. Muovendo dal dibattito sulla classificazione delle aree rurali, si propone dapprima un indicatore sintetico di ruralità che, adottando la logica fuzzy, considera congiuntamente aspetti demografici (densità), settoriali (rilevanza dell’attività agricola), territoriali e geografici (accessibilità e uso del suolo). Tale tecnica permette di ricostruire un continuum di gradi di ruralità, distinguendo così, all’interno dell’Unione Europea (circa 1.300 osservazioni), le aree più centrali da quelle progressivamente più rurali e periferiche. Successivamente, attraverso un’analisi cluster vengono individuate tipologie di aree omogenee in termini di struttura economica, paesaggio, diversificazione dell’attività agricola. Tali cluster risentono anche della distribuzione geografica delle aree stesse: vengono infatti distinti gruppi di regioni centrali da gruppi di regioni più periferiche. Tale analisi evidenzia soprattutto come il binomio ruralità-arretratezza risulti ormai superato: alcune aree rurali, infatti, hanno tratto vantaggio dalle trasformazioni che hanno interessato l’Unione Europea negli ultimi decenni (diffusione dell’ICT o sviluppo della manifattura). L’ultima parte del lavoro offre strumenti di analisi a supporto dell’azione politica comunitaria, analizzando la diversa capacità delle regioni europee di rispondere alle sfide lanciate dalla Strategia Europa 2020. Un’analisi in componenti principali sintetizza le principali dimensioni di tale performance regionale: i risultati sono poi riletti alla luce delle caratteristiche strutturali dei territori europei. Infine, una più diretta analisi spaziale dei dati permette di evidenziare come la geografia influenzi ancora profondamente la capacità dei territori di rispondere alle nuove sfide del decennio.

The development and deployment of FOTOS: a fast observation of trace organics system

Flüchtige organische Bestandteile (engl.: VOC) sind in der Atmosphäre in Spuren vorhanden, spielen aber trotzdem eine wichtige Rolle in der Luftchemie: sie beeinflussen das Ozon der Troposphäre, städtischen Smog, Oxidationskapazität und haben direkte und indirekte Auswirkungen auf die globale Klimaveränderung. Eine wichtige Klasse der VOC sind die Nicht-Methan-Kohlenwasserstoffe (engl.: NMHC), die überwiegend von anthropogenen Quellen kommen. Aus diesem Grund ist für Luftchemiker ein Messinstrument nötig, das die VOC, die NMHC eingeschlossen, mit einer höheren Zeitauflösung misst, besonders für Echtzeitmessungen an Bord eines Forschungsflugzeuges. Dafür wurde das System zur schnellen Beobachtung von organischen Spuren (engl.: FOTOS) entworfen, gebaut für den Einsatz in einem neuen Wissenschaftlichen Flugzeug, das in großen Höhen und über weite Strecken fliegt, genannt HALO. In der Folge wurde FOTOS in zwei Messkampagnen am Boden getestet. FOTOS wurde entworfen und gebaut mit einem speziell angefertigten, automatisierten, kryogenen Probensystem mit drei Fallen und einem angepassten, erworbenen schnellen GC-MS. Ziel dieses Aufbaus war es, die Vielseitigkeit zu vergrößern und das Störungspotential zu verringern, deshalb wurden keine chemischen Trocknungsmittel oder adsorbierenden Stoffe verwendet. FOTOS erreichte eine Probenfrequenz von 5.5 Minuten, während es mindestens 13 verschiedene C2- bis C5-NMHC maß. Die Drei-Sigma-Detektionsgrenze für n- und iso-Pentan wurde als 2.6 und 2.0 pptv ermittelt, in dieser Reihenfolge. Labortests bestätigten, dass FOTOS ein vielseitiges, robustes, hochautomatisiertes, präzises, genaues, empfindliches Instrument ist, geeignet für Echtzeitmessungen von VOC in Probenfrequenzen, die angemessen sind für ein Forschungsflugzeug wie HALO. Um die Leistung von FOTOS zu bestätigen, wurde vom 26. Januar bis 4. Februar 2010 ein Zwischenvergleich gemacht mit dem GC-FID-System am Meteorologischen Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, einer WMO-GAW-globalen Station. Dreizehn verschiedene NMHC wurden innerhalb des Rahmens der GWA Data Quality Objectives (DQO) analysiert und verglichen. Mehr als 80% der Messungen von sechs C3- bis C5-NMHC erfüllten diese DQO. Diese erste Messkampagne im Feld hob die Robustheit und Messgenauigkeit von FOTOS hervor, zusätzlich zu dem Vorteil der höheren Probenfrequenz, sogar in einer Messung am Boden. Um die Möglichkeiten dieses Instrumentes im Feld zu zeigen, maß FOTOS ausgewählte leichte NMHC während einer Messkampagne im Borealen Waldgebiet, HUMPPA-COPEC 2010. Vom 12. Juli bis zum 12. August 2010 beteiligte sich eine internationale Gruppe von Instituten und Instrumenten an Messungen physikalischer und chemischer Größen der Gas- und Partikelphasen der Luft über dem Borealen Wald an der SMEAR II-Station nahe Hyyttiälä, Finnland. Es wurden mehrere Hauptpunkte von Interesse im Mischungsverhältnis der Alkane und im Isomerenverhätnis von Pentan identifiziert, insbesondere sehr unterschiedliche Perioden niedriger und hoher Variabilität, drei Rauchschwaden von Biomassen-Verbrennung von russischen Waldbränden und zwei Tage mit extrem sauberer Luft aus der Polarregion. Vergleiche der NMHC mit anderen anthropogenen Indikatoren zeigten mehrere Quellen anthropogener Einflüsse am Ort auf und erlaubten eine Unterscheidung zwischen lokalen und weiter entfernten Quellen. Auf einen minimalen natürlichen Beitrag zum 24h-Kreislauf von NOx wurde geschlussfolgert aus der Korrelation von NOx mit Alkanen. Altersschätzungen der Luftmassen durch das Isomerenverhältnis von Pentan wurden erschwert durch sich verändernde Verhältnisse der Quellen und durch Besonderheiten der Photochemie während des Sommers im hohen Norden. Diese Messungen zeigten den Wert des Messens leichter NMHC, selbst in abgelegenen Regionen, als einen zusätzlichen spezifischen Marker von anthropogenem Einfluss.