Second Quarter 2016: Slowdown for Large Hotels Continues; Small Hotels Have Now Slowed as Well

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric continues to show a decline in the price of large hotels, and now also the price of small hotels has eased—even though hotel transaction volume has increased. Although debt and equity financing for hotels remain relatively inexpensive, we are concerned that the total volatility of hotel returns is greater relative to the return volatility for other commercial real estate. If this trend continues, lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards. Our early warning indicators all continue to suggest that the downward trend in hotel prices should continue into the next quarter. This is report number 19 of the index series.

Leverage, Volatile Future Earnings Growth and Expected Stock Returns

We provide theory and evidence to complement Choi's [RFS, 2013] important new insights on the returns to equity in `value' firms. We show that higher future earnings growth ameliorates the value-reducing effect of leverage and, because the market for earnings is incomplete, reduces the earnings-risk sensitivity of the default option. Ceteris paribus, a levered firm with low (high) earnings growth is more sensitive to the first (second) of these effects thus generating higher (lower) expected returns. We demonstrate this by modeling equity as an Asian-style call option on net earnings and find significant empirical support for our hypotheses.

Future Earnings Growth Volatility and the Value Premium

The value premium is well established in empirical asset pricing, but to date there is little understanding as to its fundamental drivers. We use a stochastic earnings valuation model to establish a direct link between the volatility of future earnings growth and firm value. We illustrate that risky earnings growth affects growth and value firms differently. We provide empirical evidence that the volatility of future earnings growth is a significant determinant of the value premium. Using data on individual firms and characteristic-sorted test portfolios, we also find that earnings growth volatility is significant in explaining the cross-sectional variation of stock returns. Our findings imply that the value premium is the rational consequence of accounting for risky earnings growth in the firm valuation process.

Third Quarter 2016: Hotels Exhibit Positive Momentum

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric showed an uptick in the price of large hotels during the third quarter of 2016, with a continued decline in the price of small hotels. Although debt and equity financing for hotels were still relatively inexpensive during this quarter, we remain concerned that the increasing relative riskiness of hotels compared to other commercial real estate suggests that lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards if this trend continues. Our early warning indicators continue to suggest an eventual downward trend in large hotel prices. This is report number 20 of the index series.

Entre o cartão-postal e a cidade real: um estudo sobre paisagem e produção imobiliária em Natal/RN

Recent studies concerning the landscape have investigated the most important activities that contribute for its modification and have tried to better understand the society through the marks left by its quotidian. It is understood that singular landscapes constitute the cultural patrimonies of the cities, once they are part of the daily life of the citizens and are present in their social representations. Some contemporary authors defend the preservation of the natural and urban landscape trying, specially, to keep its importance for the local population. Natal is a city where the ambient qualities are well defined and known by the beauty of the area where it is located. Situated just between a river and the sea, the city grew following its geographic characteristics. The Potengi River, the Atlantic Ocean and the vast dunes ecosystem represented natural limits to the urban expansion; at the same time they have favored the development of a landscape pattern marked by the dialectic between the natural elements and the human interventions. However, this relationship changed after the intensification of the high rising development process that took place since the 1960s. The urban legislation tried to preserve the features of the local landscape delimiting Areas for Controlling Building High , destined to protect the scenic value of some parts of the city. On the other hand, the civil construction sector has made constant pressure in sense to abolish or to modify this legal instrument, aiming profits that have increased, in the 1990s, because of the consumption and the qualification of the urban space for tourist activities. It is necessary the raising of new elements to stimulate the quarrel about the landscape preservation, the process of the urban space production and the best way for the legislation implementation. This work tries to raise elements about the subject at local level, in sense to use Natal City experience to contribute for the formulation of indicators to raise the question about the lack of measure for subjective values, for example the cultural and affective value of the landscape. The natural elements inserted in the urban profile, represent strong visual references and supply identity to the town; they are part of the collective imaginary and are detached in the social context of the city. Then, why the preservation of the landscape, that estimates the improvement in the quality of life, is not enough to justify the controlling building high already previewed as part of Natal City Legislation? These questions send us to the approach of the landscape, as a community patrimony, alerting that some of its significant esthetics attributes must be preserved as a legacy for the future generations

Relevância dos impostos diferidos : caso das empresas cotadas em Portugal

Mestrado em Contabilidade, Fiscalidade e Finanças Empresariais

Avaliação fiscal vs valores de mercado de imóveis em dação em pagamento (segmento habitacional)

Mestrado em Gestão e Avaliação Imobiliária

Entre o cartão-postal e a cidade real: um estudo sobre paisagem e produção imobiliária em Natal/RN

Recent studies concerning the landscape have investigated the most important activities that contribute for its modification and have tried to better understand the society through the marks left by its quotidian. It is understood that singular landscapes constitute the cultural patrimonies of the cities, once they are part of the daily life of the citizens and are present in their social representations. Some contemporary authors defend the preservation of the natural and urban landscape trying, specially, to keep its importance for the local population. Natal is a city where the ambient qualities are well defined and known by the beauty of the area where it is located. Situated just between a river and the sea, the city grew following its geographic characteristics. The Potengi River, the Atlantic Ocean and the vast dunes ecosystem represented natural limits to the urban expansion; at the same time they have favored the development of a landscape pattern marked by the dialectic between the natural elements and the human interventions. However, this relationship changed after the intensification of the high rising development process that took place since the 1960s. The urban legislation tried to preserve the features of the local landscape delimiting Areas for Controlling Building High , destined to protect the scenic value of some parts of the city. On the other hand, the civil construction sector has made constant pressure in sense to abolish or to modify this legal instrument, aiming profits that have increased, in the 1990s, because of the consumption and the qualification of the urban space for tourist activities. It is necessary the raising of new elements to stimulate the quarrel about the landscape preservation, the process of the urban space production and the best way for the legislation implementation. This work tries to raise elements about the subject at local level, in sense to use Natal City experience to contribute for the formulation of indicators to raise the question about the lack of measure for subjective values, for example the cultural and affective value of the landscape. The natural elements inserted in the urban profile, represent strong visual references and supply identity to the town; they are part of the collective imaginary and are detached in the social context of the city. Then, why the preservation of the landscape, that estimates the improvement in the quality of life, is not enough to justify the controlling building high already previewed as part of Natal City Legislation? These questions send us to the approach of the landscape, as a community patrimony, alerting that some of its significant esthetics attributes must be preserved as a legacy for the future generations

Some questions about the Metropolitan Areas in Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago regions

Among the numerous problems that are common to the Latin-American metropolises, such as the deep socio-spatial segregation, the impressive territorial fragmentation and the real estate valorisation that overvalues some territories, whilst it depreciates others, we have chosen to focus on the management of the metropolitan regions. That question clearly indicates that due to the great current changes of the economical restructuring - a process that strengthened the capitalist logic of social development - the traditional form of thinking urban planning has found its limits. Consequently, this issue of metropolitan management shows the need to look for new ways of metropolitan administration that can answer to the The main metropolitan regions of South America: Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago form our references to characterize the recent changes from a territorial point of view on the one hand; and relative to the new determinations of the metropolis on the other hand. This leads us to discuss the challenges that metropolitan management face in a scenario of governability fragmentation.

The city of Maringa, PR. The initial plan and the "urban requalifications"

The city of Maringa, located in the Northwest of Parana State, Brazil, was part of an extensive area colonized by the Companhia de Terras Norte do Parana replaced by the Companhia Melhoramentos Norte do Parana. Starting from a modem project elaborated in midlles of 1940's, Maringa emerged quickly amid the forest. We analyzed the initial plan, the projects for the reformulation of the central area and the tendencies of the public actions in the urban area that turn for real estate promotion and disrespect the popular participation. In its regional scale, Maringa follows the same orientation of cities that are used by the The obsession for the modernity takes to the systematic construction of new spaces that substitute the memory and the urban history in projects that reconduct to the aestheticization and the spectacularization of the urban landscape of Maringa.

Residential high-rise buildings in São Paulo: aspects related to the adequacy to the occupant`s needs

This paper analyzes the production of apartment buildings for the middle-income segment in the city of So Paulo, Brazil, from a historical perspective. Tracing the response to the occupants` needs, the focus is on family profiles and their demands, the relationship between architectural design and marketing, and satisfaction levels of current users. The paper begins with a brief historical overview of how apartment buildings have evolved over the past eight decades, highlighting the consolidation of the tripartite model. Next, it analyzes family profiles and their current needs, which would call for a redesign of domestic space. From a different angle, it shows how the real-estate market reacts to this situation, namely by introducing minor changes in the domestic space that are closely linked to major investments in marketing. This leads to a discussion on the quality of recent architectural designs in light of Post-Occupancy Evaluation (POE) case studies, which corroborate the tendencies previously outlined. The conclusions drawn from the POEs suggest that the market should establish a closer and deeper relationship between the assessment of the human behavior in the domestic space and the architectural quality of homes as a means of increasing satisfaction levels and improving design performance.

Simultaneous pooled auctions

Suppose a seller wants to sell k similar or identical objects and there are n > k potential buyers. Suppose that each buyer wants only one object. In this case, we suggest the use of a simultaneous auction that would work as follows. Players are asked to submit sealed bids for one object. The individual with the highest bid chooses an object first; the individual with the second-highest bid chooses the next object; and this process continues until the individual with the kth highest bid receives the last object. Each individual pays the equivalent to his or her bid. When objects are identical, we show that the proposed auction generates the same revenue as a first-price sealed-bid sequential auction. When objects are perfectly correlated, there is no known solution for sequential auctions, whereas we can characterize bidding strategies in the proposed auction. Moreover, the proposed auction is optimal (given an appropriately chosen reserve price), and it may be easier and cheaper to run than a sequential auction.

O processo de produção das cidades a partir das intervenções urbanas : o caso do “Projeto Lerner” para Serra-ES

O processo de produção da cidade é contínuo e mutante, características essas propiciadas, em grande parte, pelos diversos agentes que compõem o espaço urbano. As intervenções urbanas cadenciam um ritmo acelerado às transformações que são inerentes à cidade. Para entender esse processo de produção é necessária a compreensão das relações existentes entre esses agentes e o seu papel na articulação, elaboração e implantação de uma intervenção urbana. Nesse contexto, é objetivo dessa dissertação o estudo dessas relações, tendo como estudo de caso o projeto de remodelação urbana desenvolvido pelo escritório do arquiteto Jaime Lerner “Contribuições ao Desenvolvimento Urbano Sustentável do Município de Serra”, contratado pela Prefeitura Municipal de Serra – ES. Serra é um município da Região Metropolitana da Grande Vitória significativo, tanto em termos populacionais, ficando atrás de Vila Velha, quanto economicamente, seu PIB fica atrás apenas da capital Vitória. Serra passa ainda por um processo de transformação urbana recente, onde destaca-se principalmente o crescimento dos condomínios fechados. Para tal, primeiramente, realizou-se um estudo sobre o município de Serra – ES, para posteriormente se voltar para agentes que compõem a cidade (Estado, capital imobiliário, planejador urbano e os segmentos sociais, na forma da participação popular). Por fim, a análise compreendeu o projeto de Jaime Lerner, as implicações dos agentes urbanos e seus possíveis rebatimentos no espaço urbano. Como resultados, em termos gerais, pôde-se perceber que o caráter “desenvolvimentista” ainda é bastante recorrente. Nas cidades e em Serra, a construção de um espaço urbano justo e igualitário é confundida com alargamento econômico, particularmente em Serra, pelo desenvolvimento do capital imobiliário, apoiado e impulsionado pelo Estado, tendo nas intervenções urbanas uma legitimação dessas ações. Pretende-se, ao final, contribuir para o entendimento da produção da cidade a partir de uma intervenção urbana que aparentemente é de interesse de todos os segmentos sociais, mas que privilegia apenas a parcela dominante da sociedade.Assim, espera-se que num futuro, essa dissertação auxilie positivamente a participação na produção urbana de todos os segmentos sociais.

O recurso da propaganda na valorização do produto imobiliário nos municípios de Vitória e Serra a partir da segunda metade do século XX

Este trabalho analisa a importância da propaganda no setor da construção imobiliária nos municípios de Vitória e Serra no Espírito Santo, localizados na Região Metropolitana da Grande Vitória (RMGV). Esse setor tem produzido uma série de transformações no espaço urbano da RMGV, onde a propaganda situa-se como parte destas estratégias, constituindo-se numa importante ferramenta. A partir de informações oriundas de entrevistas e de pesquisa bibliográfica e documental, investigamos por que a propaganda vai modificando-se com as formas diferenciadas de produção imobiliária e ganhando importância nos lançamentos de empreendimentos entre as décadas de 1950 a 2010, nos municípios de Vitória e Serra. Ao longo da pesquisa foi possível constatar que os mecanismos institucionais criados pelo Estado trouxeram modificações ao referido setor, o que acarretou na elaboração de estratégias de produção e criação de novos produtos. Tais modificações manifestaram-se na propaganda imobiliária, que atualmente ocupa um lugar de destaque na gestão de marketing implantada nas construtoras e incorporadoras capixabas. Os resultados mostram que ao longo das décadas o setor da construção imobiliária vem elaborando estratégias para criação de novas formas de distinção de seus produtos com intuito de apropriação do espaço urbano nos municípios estudados.

Os fundos de investimento imobiliário listados em bolsa e as variáveis que influenciam seus retornos

Os fundos de investimento imobiliário combinam características tanto do mercado imobiliário, fonte de seus rendimentos, quanto do mercado de capitais, ambiente em que são negociados. O impacto de cada um desses mercados subjacentes no comportamento, desempenho e risco dessa classe de ativos não é, no entanto, ainda claramente definida, sendo um dos grandes temas em análise, tanto na literatura acadêmica, quanto na indústria de fundos internacionais. Em face da significativa expansão dessa alternativa de investimento no mercado brasileiro, no presente estudo foram analisadas as variáveis que influenciam os retornos dos fundos imobiliários brasileiros para uma amostra de fundos listados em Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, período de 2008-2013. Seguindo a metodologia de Clayton e Mackinnon (2003), os fatores explicativos dos retornos foram decompostos em quatro componentes principais, sendo três fatores de retorno de mercado (mercado de ações, mercado de renda fixa e mercado imobiliário) e risco idiossincrático. De acordo com a estatística descritiva, os fundos imobiliários da amostra apresentaram maior retorno em relação aos demais mercados, exceto em comparação com o mercado imobiliário, porém com menor risco. As análises de correlação, regressão e decomposição da variância indicam que o mercado de ações e o mercado imobiliário direto são, em geral, significativos no modelo, porém explicam apenas cerca de 15% da volatilidade dos retornos dos fundos da amostra. À luz da Moderna Teoria do Portfólio, esses resultados indicam que a inclusão de fundos imobiliários pode ter potencial diversificador numa carteira multi-ativo, seja aumentando o retorno total de uma carteira formada de ações e títulos de renda fixa, sem acréscimo em risco; ou mantendo o retorno dessa carteira, com diminuição da volatilidade, ampliando assim a fronteira eficiente da carteira. Esse efeito questiona o tradicional equilibrium fund de carteiras de investimentos formadas apenas de ações e renda fixa e aponta os fundos imobiliários como uma alternativa de investimento diversificadora, enquanto classe de ativo única. A análise de subamostras por tipologia indica, porém, que o papel diversificador dos fundos imobiliários está atrelado ao tipo de empreendimento que lastreia esse fundo, uma vez que os fatores explicativos e seus impactos nos retornos diferem de uma tipologia para outra. Esse resultado tem importantes implicações no critério de seleção a ser adotado tanto por investidores para seleção de ativos para uma carteira otimizada, como para gestores de fundos imobiliários na formatação e gestão desses produtos. Conclui-se também que os retornos dos fundos, de certo modo, refletem seu caráter híbrido, mas o modelo decomposto em 4 componentes não é suficiente para explicar os retornos dos fundos imobiliários, uma vez que o modelo estendido, demonstrou que outras variáveis, inclusive parâmetros desses próprios mercados, além de variáveis macroeconômicas e as características de cada fundo (eg. market-to-book, tamanho), podem ser responsáveis por explicar considerável parte da variância dos retornos dos FIIs.