824 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model
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This master's thesis aims to ascertain how the Stakeholders interactions influence the adoption of green marketing strategies from the perspective of the Alpha Company, a furniture industry located in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The methodology has a qualitative approach and uses the exploratorydescriptive case study method as model of formal and systematic study. Following the theoretical and conceptual propositions of Polonsky (1995), Michell, Angle and Wood (1997) and Frooman (1999) as a reference base. This study identifies and assesses the importance degree of the relevant stakeholders, shows their expectations and needs and describes the tactics used by the company for the implementation of green marketing strategies. The study describes the reality of a furniture industry in Rio Grande do Norte, and shows his philosophy and background; identifies present stakeholders that influence the decision process of the company and also, analyzes the degree of importance of each group showing their needs and expectations and, finally, it states the changes in the organization with the implementation of green marketing strategies. The results it s concluded that stakeholders are taken into consideration in the adoption of green marketing strategies, even without a proper strategic perception from the company, an imperative to advance towards the adoption of the green marketing philosophy. This case study explores knowledge that may be used and suited to small companies that act in the strategic segment-trend of green marketing
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Simulations based on cognitively rich agents can become a very intensive computing task, especially when the simulated environment represents a complex system. This situation becomes worse when time constraints are present. This kind of simulations would benefit from a mechanism that improves the way agents perceive and react to changes in these types of environments. In other worlds, an approach to improve the efficiency (performance and accuracy) in the decision process of autonomous agents in a simulation would be useful. In complex environments, and full of variables, it is possible that not every information available to the agent is necessary for its decision-making process, depending indeed, on the task being performed. Then, the agent would need to filter the coming perceptions in the same as we do with our attentions focus. By using a focus of attention, only the information that really matters to the agent running context are perceived (cognitively processed), which can improve the decision making process. The architecture proposed herein presents a structure for cognitive agents divided into two parts: 1) the main part contains the reasoning / planning process, knowledge and affective state of the agent, and 2) a set of behaviors that are triggered by planning in order to achieve the agent s goals. Each of these behaviors has a runtime dynamically adjustable focus of attention, adjusted according to the variation of the agent s affective state. The focus of each behavior is divided into a qualitative focus, which is responsible for the quality of the perceived data, and a quantitative focus, which is responsible for the quantity of the perceived data. Thus, the behavior will be able to filter the information sent by the agent sensors, and build a list of perceived elements containing only the information necessary to the agent, according to the context of the behavior that is currently running. Based on the human attention focus, the agent is also dotted of a affective state. The agent s affective state is based on theories of human emotion, mood and personality. This model serves as a basis for the mechanism of continuous adjustment of the agent s attention focus, both the qualitative and the quantative focus. With this mechanism, the agent can adjust its focus of attention during the execution of the behavior, in order to become more efficient in the face of environmental changes. The proposed architecture can be used in a very flexibly way. The focus of attention can work in a fixed way (neither the qualitative focus nor the quantitaive focus one changes), as well as using different combinations for the qualitative and quantitative foci variation. The architecture was built on a platform for BDI agents, but its design allows it to be used in any other type of agents, since the implementation is made only in the perception level layer of the agent. In order to evaluate the contribution proposed in this work, an extensive series of experiments were conducted on an agent-based simulation over a fire-growing scenario. In the simulations, the agents using the architecture proposed in this work are compared with similar agents (with the same reasoning model), but able to process all the information sent by the environment. Intuitively, it is expected that the omniscient agent would be more efficient, since they can handle all the possible option before taking a decision. However, the experiments showed that attention-focus based agents can be as efficient as the omniscient ones, with the advantage of being able to solve the same problems in a significantly reduced time. Thus, the experiments indicate the efficiency of the proposed architecture
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O processo decisório compreende a aplicação de diferentes modelos de tomada de decisão, cada um deles pertinente a uma determinada situação. Entre eles, destacamos como principais os modelos racional, processual, anárquico e político. Para este trabalho, utilizamos os conceitos de Choo (2003), por se tratar de uma das principais obras a respeito do tema existente na literatura e, assim, analisamos cada um dos modelos propostos pelo autor. A partir da análise dos modelos, foi possível estabelecer relações entre eles e maneira pela qual a informação orgânica - produzida internamente à organização, participa do processo decisório, mais especificamente no âmbito de cada modelo. Por último, a partir das inferências realizadas, propomos um novo modelo de tomada de decisão, cuja base de sustentação é a informação orgânica.
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O surgimento de novas tecnologias e serviços vem impondo mudanças substanciais ao tradicional sistema de telecomunicações. Múltiplas possibilidades de evolução do sistema fazem da etapa de planejamento um procedimento não só desejável como necessário, principalmente num ambiente de competitividade. A utilização de metodologias abrangentes e flexíveis que possam auxiliar no processo de decisão, fundadas em modelos de otimização, parece um caminho inevitável. Este artigo propõe um modelo de programação linear inteiro misto para ajudar no planejamento estratégico de sistemas de telecomunicações, e em particular da rede de acesso. Os principais componentes de custo e receita são identificados e o modelo é desenvolvido para determinar a configuração da rede (serviços, tecnologias, etc) que maximize a receita esperada pelo operador do sistema. O conceito de números fuzzy é adotado para avaliar o risco técnico-econômico em situações de imprecisão nos dados de demanda. Resultados de experimentos computacionais são apresentados e discutidos.
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This paper presents a new model for the representation of electrodes' filaments of hot-cathode fluorescent lamps, during preheating processes based on the injection of currents with constant root mean square (rms) values. The main improvement obtained with this model is the prediction of the R-h/R-c ratio during the preheating process, as a function of the preheating time and of the rms current injected in the electrodes. Using the proposed model, it is possible to obtain an estimate of the time interval and the current that should be provided by the electronic ballast, in order to ensure a suitable preheating process. is estimate of time and current can be used as input data in the design of electronic ballasts with programmed lamp start, permitting the prediction of the R-h/R-c ratio during the initial steps of the design (theoretical analysis and digital simulation). Therefore, the use of the proposed model permits to reduce the necessity of several empirical adjustments in the prototype, in order to set the operation of electronic ballasts during the preheating process. This fact reduces time and costs associated to the global design procedure of electronic ballasts.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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O enquadramento de corpos d’água é um instrumento legal do arcabouço da legislação ambiental brasileira contemplado na Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos, por meio da Lei 9.433/97. A presente dissertação apresenta um modelo de enquadramento participativo aplicado a bacias urbanas, com aplicação na Bacia Hidrográfica do Igarapé Tucunduba, em Belém/PA. A metodologia desenvolvida baseou-se em cinco etapas, que tiveram como base: a pesquisa bibliográfica em fontes diversas; o resgate dos trabalhos já desenvolvidos na bacia que empregaram metodologias informacionais de suporte à decisão; a elaboração do diagnóstico do uso e da ocupação do solo e dos recursos hídricos na bacia hidrográfica; a realização das oficinas de enquadramento com os atores locais; a aplicação do sofware Decision Explore como um Sistema de Suporte a Decisão (SSD), utilizado para organizar os dados gerados nas oficinas; o resgate dos trabalhos sobre qualidade da água realizados na bacia do Tucunduba, e por fim a definição da proposta de enquadramento participativo, com base na a classificação atual do corpo hídrico e nos usos futuros para a bacia do Tucunduba. Com base no reconhecimento de campo, nas discussões sobre os usos atuais e sobre as expectativas dos atores locais em relação ao futuro da qualidade ambiental da bacia e na avaliação dos dados de qualidade de água na bacia obtidos, foi definida uma proposta de classificação dos corpos de água segundo os usos preponderantes atuais e futuros identificados, onde foi estabelecido que esta bacia deveria ser enquadrada na Classe 2, que prioriza o abastecimento para consumo humano após tratamento convencional, a proteção das comunidades aquáticas, a recreação de contato primário, a irrigação e a pesca.
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In Smart Grids, a variety of new applications are available to users of the electrical system (from consumers to the electric system operators and market operators). Some applications such as the SCADA systems, which control generators or substations, have consequences, for example, with a communication delay. The result of a failure to deliver a control message due to noncompliance of the time constraint can be catastrophic. On the other hand, applications such as smart metering of consumption have fewer restrictions. Since each type of application has different quality of service requirements (importance, delay, and amount of data to transmit) to transmit its messages, the policy to control and share the resources of the data communication network must consider them. In this paper Markov Decision Process Theory is employed to determine optimal policies to explore as much as possible the availability of throughput in order to transmit all kinds of messages, considering the quality of service requirements defined to each kind of message. First a non-preemptive model is formulated and after that a preemptive model is derived. Numerical results are used to compare FIFO, non-preemptive and preemptive policies.
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O uso da comunicação de voz e dados através de dispositivos móveis vem aumentando significativamente nos últimos anos. Tal expansão traz algumas dificuldades inerentes, tais como: ampliação constante de capacidade das redes e eficiência energética. Neste contexto, vem se consolidando o conceito de Green networks, que se concentra no esforço para economia de energia e redução de CO2. Neste sentido, este trabalho propõe validar um modelo de uma política baseado em processo markoviano de decisão, visando a otimizar o consumo de energia, QoS e QoE, na alocação de usuários em redes macrocell e femtocell. Para isso o modelo foi inserido no simulador NS-2, aliando a solução analítica markoviana à flexibilidade característica da simulação discreta. A partir dos resultados apresentados na simulação, a política obteve uma economia significativa no consumo energético, melhorando a eficiência energética em até 4%, além de melhorar a qualidade de serviço em relação às redes macrocell e femtocell, demonstrando-se eficaz, de modo a alterar diretamente as métricas de QoS e de QoE.
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The implementation of an Export and Processing Zone (ZEPs) brings several benefits to the local, state and federal economy, but often, only socioeconomic factors are considered, apart from several other factors that should be analyzed, such as the environment. In this context of industrialization and the struggle for sustainable development, this work propose to incorporate the environmental variable in the decision process for establishing industrial areas, in particular, the ZPE in the city of Fernandópolis, São Paulo state, Brazil, by examining several physical and environmental factors such as slope intervals, geological features, pedological factors and land use. Developed using a multicriteria analysis, a model has been elaborated, where these factors have received a proportional value according with their importance, supported by a GIS tool (Geographical Information System) and remote sensing products, such as images from CBERS satellite and SRTM radar, showing the suited areas for industrial activities, considering environmental conditions. This model may assist to take better decision about the ZPE implementation area and to reduce the negative environmental impacts that would result of poorly planned locations
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Psychological factors are gaining more space in sports, and increasingly common related professional psychology are inserted in the sporting context. Seeking a better understanding of the manifestations of leadership in football between technicians of different categories this study aimed to verify whether there is a preferred style of leadership among the football coaches and if there are differences between the leadership style ideal and real seconded by same. The methodology used the Search Specification (CERVO and BERVIAN, 2004) relying on the implementation of the Revised Leadership Scale for Sport (ELRE), ideal and real versions Profile, With the participation of twenty football coaches in the field (n = 20), working in teams of males in the City of São Bernardo do Campo - SP, and to process the data we calculated the Cronbach alpha to verify the reliability of the scale, and the average of the results relying on the software application SPSS version 17.0 for Windows. Of the total participants 30% have a degree in Physical Education and are inserted in the football an average of 8 years in different roles and the prevalence of autocratic decision-making model, with an alpha of 0.87 results in the ideal profile and the actual profile of alpha 0.86 , So the scale is stable and reliable. We conclude that the model of autocratic decision not differ very significantly compared to the model of democratic decision. Regarding the interaction with the group of technicians the situational model is highlighted in research showing that technicians take into account situational factors.
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Eucalyptus plantations occupy almost 20 million ha worldwide and exceed 3.7 million ha in Brazil alone. Improved genetics and silviculture have led to as much as a three-fold increase in productivity in Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil and the large land area occupied by these highly productive ecosystems raises concern over their effect on local water supplies. As part of the Brazil Potential Productivity Project, we measured water use of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla clones in rainfed and irrigated stands in two plantations differing in productivity. The Aracruz (lower productivity) site is located in the state of Espirito Santo and the Veracel (higher productivity) site in Bahia state. At each plantation, we measured stand water use using homemade sap flow sensors and a calibration curve using the clones and probes we utilized in the study. We also quantified changes in growth, leaf area and water use efficiency (the amount of wood produced per unit of water transpired). Measurements were conducted for 1 year during 2005 at Aracruz and from August through December 2005 at Veracel. Transpiration at both sites was high compared to other studies but annual estimates at Aracruz for the rainfed treatment compared well with a process model calibrated for the Aracruz site (within 10%). Annual water use at Aracruz was 1394 mm in rainfed treatments versus 1779 mm in irrigated treatments and accounted for approximately 67% and 58% of annual precipitation and irrigation inputs respectively. Increased water use in the irrigated stands at Aracruz was associated with higher sapwood area, leaf area index and transpiration per unit leaf area but there was no difference in the response of canopy conductance with air saturation deficit between treatments. Water use efficiency at the Aracruz site was also not influenced by irrigation and was similar to the rainfed treatment. During the period of overlapping measurements, the response to irrigation treatments at the more productive Veracel site was similar to Aracruz. Stand water use at the Veracel site totaled 975 mm and 1102 mm in rainfed and irrigated treatments during the 5-month measurement period respectively. Irrigated stands at Veracel also had higher leaf area with no difference in the response of canopy conductance with air saturation deficit between treatments. Water use efficiency was also unaffected by irrigation at Veracel. Results from this and other studies suggest that improved resource availability does not negatively impact water use efficiency but increased productivity of these plantations is associated with higher water use and should be given consideration during plantation management decision making processes aimed at increasing productivity. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella arid zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.
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In electronic commerce, systems development is based on two fundamental types of models, business models and process models. A business model is concerned with value exchanges among business partners, while a process model focuses on operational and procedural aspects of business communication. Thus, a business model defines the what in an e-commerce system, while a process model defines the how. Business process design can be facilitated and improved by a method for systematically moving from a business model to a process model. Such a method would provide support for traceability, evaluation of design alternatives, and seamless transition from analysis to realization. This work proposes a unified framework that can be used as a basis to analyze, to interpret and to understand different concepts associated at different stages in e-Commerce system development. In this thesis, we illustrate how UN/CEFACT’s recommended metamodels for business and process design can be analyzed, extended and then integrated for the final solutions based on the proposed unified framework. Also, as an application of the framework, we demonstrate how process-modeling tasks can be facilitated in e-Commerce system design. The proposed methodology, called BP3 stands for Business Process Patterns Perspective. The BP3 methodology uses a question-answer interface to capture different business requirements from the designers. It is based on pre-defined process patterns, and the final solution is generated by applying the captured business requirements by means of a set of production rules to complete the inter-process communication among these patterns.
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Asset Management (AM) is a set of procedures operable at the strategic-tacticaloperational level, for the management of the physical asset’s performance, associated risks and costs within its whole life-cycle. AM combines the engineering, managerial and informatics points of view. In addition to internal drivers, AM is driven by the demands of customers (social pull) and regulators (environmental mandates and economic considerations). AM can follow either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Considering rehabilitation planning at the bottom-up level, the main issue would be to rehabilitate the right pipe at the right time with the right technique. Finding the right pipe may be possible and practicable, but determining the timeliness of the rehabilitation and the choice of the techniques adopted to rehabilitate is a bit abstruse. It is a truism that rehabilitating an asset too early is unwise, just as doing it late may have entailed extra expenses en route, in addition to the cost of the exercise of rehabilitation per se. One is confronted with a typical ‘Hamlet-isque dilemma’ – ‘to repair or not to repair’; or put in another way, ‘to replace or not to replace’. The decision in this case is governed by three factors, not necessarily interrelated – quality of customer service, costs and budget in the life cycle of the asset in question. The goal of replacement planning is to find the juncture in the asset’s life cycle where the cost of replacement is balanced by the rising maintenance costs and the declining level of service. System maintenance aims at improving performance and maintaining the asset in good working condition for as long as possible. Effective planning is used to target maintenance activities to meet these goals and minimize costly exigencies. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a process-model for asset replacement planning. The aim of the model is to determine the optimal pipe replacement year by comparing, temporally, the annual operating and maintenance costs of the existing asset and the annuity of the investment in a new equivalent pipe, at the best market price. It is proposed that risk cost provide an appropriate framework to decide the balance between investment for replacing or operational expenditures for maintaining an asset. The model describes a practical approach to estimate when an asset should be replaced. A comprehensive list of criteria to be considered is outlined, the main criteria being a visà- vis between maintenance and replacement expenditures. The costs to maintain the assets should be described by a cost function related to the asset type, the risks to the safety of people and property owing to declining condition of asset, and the predicted frequency of failures. The cost functions reflect the condition of the existing asset at the time the decision to maintain or replace is taken: age, level of deterioration, risk of failure. The process model is applied in the wastewater network of Oslo, the capital city of Norway, and uses available real-world information to forecast life-cycle costs of maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and support infrastructure management decisions. The case study provides an insight into the various definitions of ‘asset lifetime’ – service life, economic life and physical life. The results recommend that one common value for lifetime should not be applied to the all the pipelines in the stock for investment planning in the long-term period; rather it would be wiser to define different values for different cohorts of pipelines to reduce the uncertainties associated with generalisations for simplification. It is envisaged that more criteria the municipality is able to include, to estimate maintenance costs for the existing assets, the more precise will the estimation of the expected service life be. The ability to include social costs enables to compute the asset life, not only based on its physical characterisation, but also on the sensitivity of network areas to social impact of failures. The type of economic analysis is very sensitive to model parameters that are difficult to determine accurately. The main value of this approach is the effort to demonstrate that it is possible to include, in decision-making, factors as the cost of the risk associated with a decline in level of performance, the level of this deterioration and the asset’s depreciation rate, without looking at age as the sole criterion for making decisions regarding replacements.