台湾WTO加盟後の対中政策手段とFTA外交

WTO加盟は台湾にとって、初めての国連組織への加盟となる。また、FTAへの参加資格を得た点において大きな外交得点であった。しかし、中国との経済関係の自由化を迫られるデメリットがあるが、中国との政治的な緊張関係を利用して台湾は自由化を遅らせることもできる。一方、他のWTOメンバーとのFTA締結は法的障害を除去しても、中国の反対がネックとなっている。

アジアは一つになれるか？: ASEAN型「統合」からの脱却の必要性

東アジア共同体の議論は、FTAが基礎になる。だが、FTA自体が本当の統合なのか疑問が残る。もし、アジアがEU型の本格的な深い統合を目指すなら、ASEAN中心主義や中国の深い関与が足かせになる。経済発展と民主化が一定水準に達したアジアやオセアニアの先進国による新たな統合の核が必要である。

Chairmanship in ASEAN+3:A Shared Rule of Behavior

ASEAN+3 is a cooperative framework among ASEAN members and the countries of Japan, China and Korea. It functions at the senior official, ministerial and summit levels. This article concerns how institutions in ASEAN+3 affect development of the direction and nature of this framework. ASEAN+3 is regarded as a loose framework that has regularized meetings as its main activity but has no organizational settings such as the secretariat. Little institutional analysis has been conducted on the development of this framework. This article introduces 'Chairmanship' as an analytical concept in which the chair or chairing member plays an important role in preparing and managing meetings. 'Chairmanship' is therefore an institution with an organizational element. It is also a shared rule of behavior among member states in that the chair's roles are not explicitly written in documents. Thus, it can be argued that the ASEAN+3 framework has an institution with an organizational element that affects development of its characteristics.

Rules of Origin and Local Content in East Asia

Rules of Origin (RoO) are an integral part of all trade rules. In order to be eligible for Common Effective Preferential Tariffs (CEPT) under AFTA and similar arrangements under the ASEAN-China FTA, a product must satisfy the conditions relative to local content. The paper tries to calculate local content as well as cumulative local content in East Asian economies, with use of the Asian International Input-Output Tables; it also investigates factors of change in local content by applying decomposition analysis. The paper finds that the cumulation rule increased local content of the electronics industry more significantly than local content of the automotive industry, and the contribution of the cumulation rule increased in the period 1990-2000, due to rising dependency on neighboring ASEAN countries and China.

Do Foreign Currency Deposits Promote or Deter Financial Development in Low-Income Countries? An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Country Data

Foreign currency deposits (FCD) are prevalent in many low-income developing countries, but their impact on bank lending has rarely been examined. An examination of cross-country data indicates that a higher proportion of FCD in total deposits is associated with growth in private credit only in inflationary circumstances (over 24 percent of the annual inflation rate). FCD can lead to a decline in private credit below this threshold level of inflation. Given that FCD exhibit persistence, deregulating them in low-income countries may do more harm than good on financial development in the long term, notably after successful containment of inflation.

一国両制下における統合：中国大陸と香港を中心に

香港返還は一国両制のもと、統一を果たしても領域ごとの制度統合を行わなかった。しかし、密接な経済交流の存在は、領域間の統合を不可避なものにする。現在の香港SAR基本法の元で、どの程度の統合が可能なのか、あるいは可能性があるのかを検討した。さらに経済統合と民主主義のトレードオフの関係も指摘している。

Is It Worthwhile for Indonesia to Rush into a Free Trade Deal with Japan?

This report represents a preliminary attempt to refine some basic ideas on the potential impact Indonesia might experience from a free trade arrangement with Japan, using a forward-looking, multi-regional, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium model of global trade to capture growth effects through capital accumulation paying attention to the changes in the patterns of interregional capital flows that might happen even before the policy change occurs. The simulation results revealed that the welfare gains of rushing into trade liberalization with Japan are not so large. This makes out that taking time over negotiations might be the best choice for Indonesia if the government places priority on convincing the Indonesian people that a free trade deal with Japan will definitely bring positive effects, while proceeding rapidly might be the answer if the country is serious about recovering the welfare levels that might be lowered by free trade arrangements among Malaysia, the Philippines, and Japan.

Border Industry in Myanmar: Turning the Periphery into the Center of Growth

The Myanmar economy has not been deeply integrated into East Asia’s production and distribution networks, despite its location advantages and notably abundant, reasonably well-educated, cheap labor force. Underdeveloped infrastructure, logistics in particular, and an unfavorable business and investment environment hinder it from participating in such networks in East Asia. Service link costs, for connecting production sites in Myanmar and other remote fragmented production blocks or markets, have not fallen sufficiently low to enable firms, including multi-national corporations to reduce total costs, and so the Myanmar economy has failed to attract foreign direct investments. Border industry offers a solution. The Myanmar economy can be connected to the regional and global economy through its borders with neighboring countries, Thailand in particular, which already have logistic hubs such as deep-sea ports, airports and trunk roads. This paper examines the source of competitiveness of border industry by considering an example of the garment industry located in the Myanmar-Thai border area. Based on such analysis, we recognize the prospects of border industry and propose some policy measures to promote this on Myanmar soil.

Financing Small and Medium Enterprises in Myanmar

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) share the biggest part in Myanmar economy in terms of number, contribution to employment, output, and investment. Myanmar economic growth is thus totally dependent on the development of SMEs in the private sector. Today, the role of SMEs has become more vital in strengthening national competitive advantage and the speedy economic integration into the ASEAN region. However, studies show that SMEs have to deal with a number of constraints that hinder their development potential, such as the shortage in power supply, unavailability of long-term credit from external sources and many others. Among them, the financing problem of SMEs is one of the biggest constraints. Such is deeply rooted in demand and supply issues, macroeconomic fundamentals, and lending infrastructure of the country. The government’s policy towards SMEs could also lead to insufficient support for the SMEs. Thus, focusing on SMEs and private sector development as a viable strategy for industrialization and economic development of the country is a fundamental requirement for SME development. This paper recommends policies for stabilizing macro economic fundamentals, improving lending infrastructures of the country and improving demand- and supply-side conditions from the SMEs financing perspective in order to provide a more accessible financing for SMEs and to contribute in the overall development of SMEs in Myanmar thereby to sharpen national competitive advantage in the age of speedy economic integration.

Infrastructure Development of Railway in Cambodia: A Long Term Strategy

Infrastructure development means for the making of living environment, transport and communications, disaster prevention and national land conservation, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and energy production and supply. Transport infrastructure development in Cambodia involved with (1) road, (2) railway, (3) port, inland-water way and (4) aviation. All model of transport infrastructure have special different kinds of importance. Railway is different from other base important of railways are transport passengers and traffic freight especially transport for heavy goods in huge capacity and in long distance by safer and faster. Transport in Cambodia for traffic freight export import base from Thailand and other via Sisophon and Shihanoukvill port. Traffic is increasing rapidly during nowadays railway condition in adequate of demand required. This is why Railway is selected as the topic of this paper to prevent monopoly of road transport. This paper, does review about infrastructure development plan for Railway in Cambodia as a long term strategy by review and analysis forecast on the previous performance of Royal Railways of Cambodia (RRC) transport traffic involved with condition of infrastructure development of railway in Cambodia. And also review the plan of development RRC but just only detail a plan of rehabilitation that is immediately needed. Suggest some recommendation at the last part. As Cambodia is a member country of ASEAN and also Mekong sub-region. For make sure that transport networks work effectively with a progress of economic integration, we make clear what is important for infrastructure development of railway in Cambodia from the standpoint of the development plan of Mekong sub-region. This paper is organized by 4 sections. Section 1 review about Infrastructure Development of Railway in Cambodia (IDRC) Historical Background, Follow by Section 2 will review the Current Situation of IDRC and some analysis of transport performance from previous years, Then Section 3 review of the focusing on traffic transport of RRC in the future, Section 4 review Infrastructure Development of Railway in Cambodia Future plans in long term; at last conclusion and recommendation. In section 1 does review history background of RRC from the rail first begun. But why is needed to review? Because of history background is involved infrastructure development of RRC in present time. History background made big gaps constraint and obstacle for socioeconomic development and poverty reduction, also left Cambodia with tragedy and left developed behind. After that remain infrastructure development needs huge fund and long time for restoration, reconstruction, rehabilitation and development into new technology as most of world practice.

The IDE geographical simulation model : predicting long-term effects of infrastructure development projects

It is important to be able to predict changes in the location of populations and industries in regions that are in the process of economic integration. The IDE Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) has been developed with two major objectives: (1) to determine the dynamics of locations of populations and industries in East Asia in the long-term, and (2) to analyze the impact of specific infrastructure projects on the regional economy at sub-national levels. The basic structure of the IDE-GSM is introduced in this article and accompanied with results of test analyses on the effects of the East West Economic Corridor on regions in Continental South East Asia. Results indicate that border costs appear to play a big role in the location choice of populations and industries, often a more important role than physical infrastructures themselves.

Empirical global value chain analysis in electronics and automobile industries :An application of Asian international input-output tables

This study aims to examine the international value distribution structure among major East Asian economies and the US. The mainstream trade theory explains the gains from trade; however, global value chain (GVC) approach emphasises uneven benefits of globalization among trading partners. The present study is mainly based on this view, examining which economy gains the most and which the least from the East Asian production networks. Two key industries, i.e., electronics and automobile, are our principle focus. Input-output method is employed to trace the creation and flows of value-added within the region. A striking fact is that some ASEAN economies increasingly reduce their shares of value-added, taken by developed countries, particularly by Japan. Policy implications are discussed in the final section.

A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process: An International Input-Output Approach

The paper investigates the possibility of constructing a new measurement for analysing international fragmentation of the production process. It asserts that the current usage of relevant data, whether the trade shares of parts and components or the index of Vertical Specialisation, is quite unsatisfactory for measuring the phenomenon, since they critically lack the overall perspective of the entire structure of production chains. 　The new measurement is formulated such that it captures every aspect of the vertical sequence of production linkages. It is based on the input-output model of Average Propagation Lengths, recently developed by Eric Dietzenbacher and others, which show the average number of production stages that are passed through for an exogenous change in one industry to affect another. By applying this model to the data of the Asian International Input-Output Tables, the index is able to measure the international dimension of production sharing and division of labour in East Asia.