The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Share Repurchases, Dividends, and Executive Options

This paper reports empirical results on the determinants of the authorization decision for share repurchases and dividends in Finland. We use a data set with precise data on share repurchases as well as characteristics for the option programs. Contrary to the U.S., we use a data set where 41% of the options are dividend protected, which allows us to separate between the "option funding" and "substitution / managerial wealth" hypothesis for the choice of the distribution method. We find that foreign ownership is the main determinant for share repurchases in Finland and attribute this relationship to tax factors. We also find evidence in support of both the signaling and agency cost hypotheses for cash distributions, especially in the case of share repurchases. Finally, we find a significant difference between companies with and without dividend protected options. When options are dividend protected, the relationship between dividend distributions and the scope of the options program turns to a significantly positive one instead of the negative one documented on U.S. data. This gives some support for the substitution / managerial wealth hypothesis as a determinant for the choice of the distribution method.

Examining and Modeling the Dynamics of the Volatility Surface

The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.

A hitchhiker's guide to a crowded syconium: how do fig nematodes find the right ride?

P>1Organisms with low mobility, living within ephemeral environments,need to find vehicles that can disperse them reliably to new environments. The requirement for specificity in this passenger-vehicle relationship is enhanced within a tritrophic interaction when the environment of passenger and vehicle is provided by a third organism. Such relationships pose many interesting questions about specificity within a tritrophic framework. 2. Central to understanding how these tritrophic systems have evolved, is knowing how they function now. Determining the proximal cues and sensory modalities used by passengers to find vehicles and to discriminate between reliable and non-reliable vehicles is, therefore, essential to this investigation. 3. The ancient, co-evolved and highly species-specific nursery pollination mutualism between figs and fig wasps is host to species-specific plant-parasitic nematodes which use fig wasps to travel between figs. Since individual globular fig inflorescences, i.e. syconia, serve as incubators for hundreds of developing pollinating and parasitic wasps, a dispersal-stage nematode within such a chemically,complex and physically crowded environment is faced with the dilemma of choosing the right vehicle for dispersal into a new fig. Such a system therefore affords excellent opportunities to investigate mechanisms that contribute to the evolution of specificity between the passenger and the vehicle. 4. In this study of fig-wasp-nematode tritrophic interactions in Ficus racemosa within which seven wasp species can breed, we demonstrate using two-choice as well as cafeteria assays that plant-parasitic nematodes (Schistonchus racemosa) do not hitch rides randomly on available eclosing wasps within the fig syconium, but are specifically attracted, at close range, i.e. 3 mm distance, to only that vehicle which can quickly, within a few hours, reliably transfer it to another fig. This vehicle is the female pollinating wasp. Male wasps and female parasitic wasps are inappropriate vehicles since the former are wingless and die within the fig, while the latter never enter another fig. Nematodes distinguished between female pollinating wasps and other female parasitic wasps using volatiles and cuticular hydrocarbons. Nematodes could not distinguish between cuticular hydrocarbons of male and female pollinators but used other cues, such as volatiles, at close range, to find female pollinating wasps with which they have probably had a long history of chemical adaptation. 5. This study opens up new questions and hypotheses about the evolution and maintenance of specificity in fig-wasp-nematode tritrophic interactions.

Expression of GC-C, a receptor-guanylate cyclase, and its endogenous ligands uroguanylin and guanylin along the rostrocaudal axis of the intestine

Members of the receptor-guanylate cyclase (rGC) family possess an intracellular catalytic domain that is regulated by an extracellular receptor domain. GC-C, an intestinally expressed rGC, was initially cloned by homology as an orphan receptor. The search for its Ligands has yielded three candidates: STa (a bacterial toxin that causes traveler's diarrhea) and the endogenous peptides uroguanylin and guanylin. Here, by performing Northern and Western blots, and by measuring [I-125]STa binding and STa-dependent elevation of cGMP levels, we investigate whether the distribution of GC-C matches that of its endogenous ligands in the rat intestine. We establish that 1) uroguanylin is essentially restricted to small bowel; 2) guanylin is very low in proximal small bowel, increasing to prominent levels in distal small bowel and throughout colon; 3) GC-C messenger RNA and STa-binding sites are uniformly expressed throughout the intestine; and 4) GC-C-mediated cGMP synthesis peaks at the proximal and distal extremes of the intestine (duodenum and colon), but is nearly absent in the middle (ileum). These observations suggest that GC-C's activity may be posttranslationally regulated, demonstrate that the distribution of GC-C is appropriate to mediate the actions of both uroguanylin and guanylin, and help to refine current hypotheses about the physiological role(s) of these peptides.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Crosstalk between the sympathetic nervous system, inflammation and coagulation in gestational diabetes; a therapeutic approach in postmenopausal hypertension

The occurrence of gestational diabetes (GDM) during pregnancy is a powerful sign of a risk of later type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The physiological basis for this disease progression is not yet fully understood, but increasing evidence exists on interplay of insulin resistance, subclinical inflammation, and more recently, on unbalance of the autonomic nervous system. Since the delay in development of T2D and CVD after GDM ranges from years to decades, better understanding of the pathophysiology of GDM could give us new tools for primary prevention. The present study was aimed at investigating the role of the sympathetic nervous system (SNS) in GDM and its associations with insulin and a variety of inflammatory cytokines and coagulation and fibrinolysis markers. This thesis covers two separate study lines. Firstly, we investigated 41 women with GDM and 22 healthy pregnant and 14 non-pregnant controls during the night in hospital. Blood samples were drawn at 24:00, 4:00 and 7:00 h to determine the concentrations of plasma glucose, insulin, noradrenaline (NA) and adrenomedullin, markers of subclinical inflammation, coagulation and fibrinolysis variables and platelet function. Overnight holter ECG recording was performed for analysis of heart rate variability (HRV). Secondly, we studied 87 overweight hypertensive women with natural menopause. They were randomised to use a central sympatholytic agent, moxonidine (0.3mg twice daily), the β-blocking agent atenolol (50 mg once daily+blacebo once daily) for 8 weeks. Inflammatory markers and adiponectin were analysed at the beginning and after 8 weeks. Activation of the SNS (increase in NA, decreased HRV) was seen in pregnant vs. non-pregnant women, but no difference existed between GDM and normal pregnancy. However, modulation (internal rhythm) of HRV was attenuated in GDM. Insulin and inflammatory cytokine levels were comparable in all pregnant women but nocturnal variation of concentrations of C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A and insulin were reduced in GDM. Levels of coagulation factor VIII were lower in GDM compared with normal pregnancy, whereas no other differences were seen in coagulation and fibrinolysis markers. No significant associations were seen between NA and the studied parameters. In the study of postmenopausal women, moxonidine treatment was associated with favourable changes in the inflammatory profile, seen as a decrease in TNFα concentrations (increase in atenolol group) and preservation of adiponectin levels (decrease in atenolol group). In conclusion, our results did not support our hypotheses of increased SNS activity in GDM or a marked association between NA and inflammatory and coagulation markers. Reduced biological variation of HRV, insulin and inflammatory cytokines suggests disturbance of autonomic and hormonal regulatory mechanisms in GDM. This is a novel finding. Further understanding of the regulatory mechanisms could allow earlier detection of risk women and the possibility of prevention. In addition, our results support consideration of the SNS as one of the therapeutic targets in the battle against metabolic diseases, including T2D and CVD.

Esteettinen kokemus kulttuurisiltana : Soile Yli-Mäyryn taide kiinalaisen, japanilaisen ja suomalaisen yleisön kokemana

AESTHETIC EXPERIENCE AS A BRIDGE ACROSS CULTURES Soile Yli-Mäyry s art as experienced by Chinese, Japanese and Finnish audiences This study focuses on surveying and analysing experiences of Soile Yli-Mäyry s art in eleven different countries. Questionnaires were translated into nine different languages. In addition, interviews were conducted on the experiences of Chinese, Japanese and Finnish art audiences concerning a painting called Sun Wind . The study was mainly inspired by John Dewey s ideas of art as an interactive communication where the artist, the piece and those who experience it make up an interactive process. In this process experience is a meeting point with both individual and communal characteristics. The data was collected in conjunction with exhibitions in 1997−2005. The survey was carried out in eleven countries (Finland, United States, Brazil, China, Taiwan, Japan, India, Israel, Argentina, Germany and Switzerland). The survey data was made up of 2,563 returned questionnaires. The interviews in China, Japan and Finland were about the same painting Sun Wind , which was transported from Finland to Japan (Tokyo) and China. A total of 89 people were interviewed in Shanghai Art Museum, 30 people in Port-Ginza Gallery, Tokyo and 45 people in Soile Yli-Mäyry s Gallery in Finland. Three hypotheses that were turned into research questions directed the study: 1. Are there differences/ similarities between culturally different communities in the meanings attributed to experiences, e.g. according to emotional dimensions, or do experiences focus more on reflecting on one s own life or meanings attributed to the world around us? What kinds of experiential dimensions are there in different countries? Do similar, analogous experiences that transcend cultural barriers emerge in culturally different countries such as China, Japan and Finland? 2. Does the data display different types of experiencing subjects which are typical to a subject s own country or are they experiences that can be compared to those generated by an ideal landscape , where the art touches the subconscious and collective selfhood, being thus transnational and timeless? Closer analysis focuses on audience experiences in China, Japan and Finland (interviews, textual survey data). 3. Are the experiences and interpretations of experts similar/different to those of larger audiences? The survey data has been analysed with the help of cross-tabulation. After content analysis of the interviews and textual survey data, different ways of experiencing subjects were sketched by country (China, Japan, Finland). The types were both similar and dissimilar. The most important types were social/ecological (China), therapeutic/reserved (Japan) and narrative/projecting (Finland). There were differences in how experiences were emphasised: the Chinese public approached their experiences from the viewpoint of pragmatism and utility, where they could obtain new ideas for their own work or experiencing the exhibition gave courage to approach their own lives from a new perspective. In turn, the Japanese public experienced the art from a therapeutic angle and from a very reserved perspective, which Dylan Evans (2001, 13−17) has described as typical to Japanese culture. The experiences of the Finnish audience were strongly therapeutic and narrative. The people projected their emotions onto the piece and in a concrete manner forged them into a story. The partly similar results of this study in China, Japan and Finland demonstrate that the art displayed in the exhibitions contain images of the beginning or elements connected to the beginning of life, which touch the subconscious in the way an ideal landscape would. Experiencing the meaningfulness of one s own life through art is a common thread and a bridge across cultures that unites the experiences of the audiences of this study, be they Taoists, Confucians, Buddhists or Maoists in China, Shinto followers, Zen Buddhists in Japan or Evangelist-Lutherans in Finland. Keywords: experience, reception, bridge across cultures, types of experiencing subjects, experiential process, ideal landscape, elementality

Learning Challenges in Biogas Production for Sustainability : An activity theoretical study of a network from a swine industry chain

This study is about the challenges of learning in the creation and implementation of new sustainable technologies. The system of biogas production in the Programme of Sustainable Swine Production (3S Programme) conducted by the Sadia food processing company in Santa Catarina State, Brazil, is used as a case example for exploring the challenges, possibilities and obstacles of learning in the use of biogas production as a way to increase the environmental sustainability of swine production. The aim is to contribute to the discussion about the possibilities of developing systems of biogas production for sustainability (BPfS). In the study I develop hypotheses concerning the central challenges and possibilities for developing systems of BPfS in three phases. First, I construct a model of the network of activities involved in the BP for sustainability in the case study. Next, I construct a) an idealised model of the historically evolved concepts of BPfS through an analysis of the development of forms of BP and b) a hypothesis of the current central contradictions within and between the activity systems involved in BP for sustainability in the case study. This hypothesis is further developed through two actual empirical analyses: an analysis of the actors senses in taking part in the system, and an analysis of the disturbance processes in the implementation and operation of the BP system in the 3S Programme. The historical analysis shows that BP for sustainability in the 3S Programme emerged as a feasible solution for the contradiction between environmental protection and concentration, intensification and specialisation in swine production. This contradiction created a threat to the supply of swine to the food processing company. In the food production activity, the contradiction was expressed as a contradiction between the desire of the company to become a sustainable company and the situation in the outsourced farms. For the swine producers the contradiction was expressed between the contradictory rules in which the market exerted pressure which pushed for continual increases in scale, specialisation and concentration to keep the production economically viable, while the environmental rules imposed a limit to this expansion. Although the observed disturbances in the biogas system seemed to be merely technical and localised within the farms, the analysis proposed that these disturbances were formed in and between the activity systems involved in the network of BPfS during the implementation. The disturbances observed could be explained by four contradictions: a) contradictions between the new, more expanded activity of sustainable swine production and the old activity, b) a contradiction between the concept of BP for carbon credits and BP for local use in the BPfS that was implemented, c) contradictions between the new UNFCCC1 methodology for applying for carbon credits and the small size of the farms, and d) between the technologies of biogas use and burning available in the market and the small size of the farms. The main finding of this study relates to the zone of proximal development (ZPD) of the BPfS in Sadia food production chain. The model is first developed as a general model of concepts of BPfS and further developed here to the specific case of the BPfS in the 3S Programme. The model is composed of two developmental dimensions: societal and functional integration. The dimension of societal integration refers to the level of integration with other activities outside the farm. At one extreme, biogas production is self-sufficient and highly independent and the products of BP are consumed within the farm, while at the other extreme BP is highly integrated in markets and networks of collaboration, and BP products are exchanged within the markets. The dimension of functional integration refers to the level of integration between products and production processes so that economies of scope can be achieved by combining several functions using the same utility. At one extreme, BP is specialised in only one product, which allows achieving economies of scale, while at the other extreme there is an integrated production in which several biogas products are produced in order to maximise the outcomes from the BP system. The analysis suggests that BP is moving towards a societal integration, towards the market and towards a functional integration in which several biogas products are combined. The model is a hypothesis to be further tested through interventions by collectively constructing the new proposed concept of BPfS. Another important contribution of this study refers to the concept of the learning challenge. Three central learning challenges for developing a sustainable system of BP in the 3S Programme were identified: 1) the development of cheaper and more practical technologies of burning and measuring the gas, as well as the reduction of costs of the process of certification, 2) the development of new ways of using biogas within farms, and 3) the creation of new local markets and networks for selling BP products. One general learning challenge is to find more varied and synergic ways of using BP products than solely for the production of carbon credits. Both the model of the ZPD of BPfS and the identified learning challenges could be used as learning tools to facilitate the development of biogas production systems. The proposed model of the ZPD could be used to analyse different types of agricultural activities that face a similar contradiction. The findings could be used in interventions to help actors to find their own expansive actions and developmental projects for change. Rather than proposing a standardised best concept of BPfS, the idea of these learning tools is to facilitate the analysis of local situations and to help actors to make their activities more sustainable.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing type counts

This work is a case study of applying nonparametric statistical methods to corpus data. We show how to use ideas from permutation testing to answer linguistic questions related to morphological productivity and type richness. In particular, we study the use of the suffixes -ity and -ness in the 17th-century part of the Corpus of Early English Correspondence within the framework of historical sociolinguistics. Our hypothesis is that the productivity of -ity, as measured by type counts, is significantly low in letters written by women. To test such hypotheses, and to facilitate exploratory data analysis, we take the approach of computing accumulation curves for types and hapax legomena. We have developed an open source computer program which uses Monte Carlo sampling to compute the upper and lower bounds of these curves for one or more levels of statistical significance. By comparing the type accumulation from women’s letters with the bounds, we are able to confirm our hypothesis.

Independent and mediating organizational commitment effects of trust in leadership on employees' job satisfaction and : a study within social and health care sector

The purpose of this study was to examine whether trust in supervisor and trust in senior management enhance employees' job satisfaction and organizational commitment, and whether trust mediates the relationship between perceived justice and these outcomes. Trust in supervisor was expected to mediate the effects of distributive justice and interactional justice, and trust in senior management was expected to mediate the effects of procedural justice. Theoretical background of the study is based on the framework for trust in leadership developed by Dirks and Ferrin (2002). According to the framework, perceived fairness of leaders' actions helps employees to draw inferences about the basis of the relationship and about leaders' characters. This allows trust formation. Reciprocation of care and concern in the relationship and confidence in leaders' characters are likely to enhance employees' job satisfaction and organizational commitment. This study was conducted with cross-sectional data (A/ = 960) of employees from social and health care sector. Hypotheses were studied using correlation analysis and several hierarchical regression analyses. Significances of the mediations were assessed using the Sobel test. Results partially supported the hypotheses. Trust in leadership was positively related to job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Trust in senior management mediated the relationship between procedural justice and the outcomes. Some support was also found for the mediating effect of trust in supervisor in the relationship between distributive justice and organizational commitment. Due to high correlation between trust in supervisor anil interactional justice, it wasn't possible to study the mediating e fleet of trust in supervisor in the relationship between interactional justice and the outcomes. Against expectations, results indicated that trust in senior management had a mediating effect in the relationship between distributive justice and organizational commitment, and in the relationship between interactional justice and organizational commitment. Results also indicated that trust in supervisor had a mediating effect in the relationship between procedural justice and organizational commitment.

Casting and heat treatment variables of Al–7Si–Mg alloy

A review of the research work that has been carried out thus far relating the casting and heat treatment variables to the structure and mechanical properties of Al–7Si–Mg (wt-%) is presented here. Although specifications recommend a wide range of magnesium contents and a fairly high content of iron, a narrow range of magnesium contents, closer to either the upper or lower specified limits depending on the properties desired, and a low iron content will have to be maintained to obtain optimum and consistent mechanical properties. A few studies have revealed that the modification of eutectic silicon slightly increases ductility and fracture toughness and also that the effect of modification is predominant at low iron content. Generally, higher solidification rates give superior mechanical properties. Delayed aging (the time elapsed between quenching and artificial aging during precipitation hardening) severely affects the strength of the alloy. The mechanism of delayed aging can be explained on the basis of Pashley's kinetic model. It has been reported that certain trace additions (cadmium, indium, tin, etc.) neutralise the detrimental effect of delayed aging. In particular, it should be noted that delayed aging is not mentioned in any of the specifications. With reference to the mechanism by which trace additions neutralise the detrimental effect of delayed aging, various hypotheses have been postulated, of which impurity–vacancy interaction appears to be the most widely accepted.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

FIN-CLARIN: A Framework for Depositing and Disseminating Language Resources for R&D

Researchers and developers in academia and industry would benefit from a facility that enables them to easily locate, licence and use the kind of empirical data they need for testing and refining their hypotheses and to deposit and disseminate their data e.g. to support replication and validation of reported scientific experiments. To answer these needs initially in Finland, there is an ongoing project at University of Helsinki and its collaborators to create a user-friendly web service for researchers and developers in Finland and other countries. In our talk, we describe ongoing work to create a palette of extensive but easily available Finnish language resources and technologies for the research community, including lexical resources, wordnets, morphologically tagged corpora, dependency syntactic treebanks and parsebanks, open-source finite state toolkits and libraries and language models to support text analysis and processing at customer site. Also first publicly available results are presented.