Stock market volatility and learning

Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

Family relationships and learning experiences in anxious vs. non-anxious families: Are there differences ?

L'objectif principal de ce travail était d'explorer les relations parent-enfant et les processus d'apprentissage familiaux associés aux troubles anxieux. A cet effet, des familles ayant un membre anxieux (la mère ou l'enfant) ont été comparées avec des familles n'ayant aucun membre anxieux. Dans une première étude, l'observation de l'interaction mère-enfant, pendant une situation standardisée de jeu, a révélé que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus susceptibles de se montrer verbalement contrôlantes, critiques et moins sensibles aux besoins de l'enfant, que les mères qui ne présentaient pas de trouble panique. Une deuxième étude a examiné les perceptions des différents membres de la famille quant aux relations au sein de la famille et a indiqué que, par comparaison aux adolescents non-anxieux, les adolescents anxieux étaient plus enclins à éprouver un sentiment d'autonomie individuelle diminué par rapport à leurs parents. Finalement, une troisième étude s'est intéressée à déterminer l'impact d'expériences d'apprentissage moins directes dans l'étiologie de l'anxiété. Les résultats ont indiqué que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus enclines à s'engager dans des comportements qui maintiennent la panique et à impliquer leurs enfants dans ces comportements, que les mères ne présentant pas de trouble panique. En se basant sur des recherches antérieures qui ont établi une relation entre le contrôle parental, la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant et les troubles anxieux, le présent travail non seulement confirme ce lien mais propose également un modèle pour résumer l'état actuel des connaissances concernant les processus familiaux et le développement des troubles anxieux. Deux routes ont été suggérées par lesquelles l'anxiété pourrait être transmise de manière intergénérationnelle. Chacune de ces routes attribue un rôle important à la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant. L'idée est que lorsque les enfants présentent une prédisposition à interpréter le comportement de leurs parents comme hors de leur contrôle, ils seraient plus enclins à développer de l'anxiété. A ce titre, la perception du contrôle représenterait un tampon entre le comportement de contrôle/surprotection des parents et le trouble anxieux chez l'enfant. - The principal objective of the present work was to explore parent-child relationships and family learning processes associated with anxiety disorders. To this purpose, families with and without an anxious family member (mother or child) were compared. In a first study, observation of mother-child interaction, during a standard play situation, revealed that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to display verbal control and criticism, and less likely to display sensitivity toward their children than mothers without panic disorder. A second study examined family members' perceptions of family relationships and indicated that compared to non-anxious adolescents, anxious adolescents were more prone to experience a diminished sense of individual autonomy in relation to their parents. Finally a third study was interested in determining the effect of less direct learning experiences in the aetiology of anxiety. Results indicated that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to engage in panic-maintaining behaviour and to involve their children in this behaviour than mothers without panic disorder. Based on previous research showing a relationship between parental control, children's perception of control, and anxiety disorders, the present work not only further adds evidence to support this link but also proposes a model summarizing the current knowledge concerning family processes and the development of anxiety disorders. Two pathways have been suggested through which anxiety may be intergenerationally transmitted. Both pathways assign an important role to children's perception of control. The idea is that whenever children have a predisposition towards interpreting their parents' behaviour as beyond of their control, they may be more prone to develop anxiety. As such, perceived control may represent a buffer between parental overcontrolling/overprotective behaviours and childhood anxiety disorder.

Fiscal Policy and Learning

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature (in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values under RE). Effectiveness of fiscal policy is demonstrated during times of economic stress like the recent Great Recession. Finally it is shown how learning can lead to dynamics empirically documented during episodes of 'fiscal consolidations.'

What is the Causal Effect of Information and Learning about a Public Good on Willingness to Pay?

In this study we elicit agents’ prior information set regarding a public good, exogenously give information treatments to survey respondents and subsequently elicit willingness to pay for the good and posterior information sets. The design of this field experiment allows us to perform theoretically motivated hypothesis testing between different updating rules: non-informative updating, Bayesian updating, and incomplete updating. We find causal evidence that agents imperfectly update their information sets. We also field causal evidence that the amount of additional information provided to subjects relative to their pre-existing information levels can affect stated WTP in ways consistent overload from too much learning. This result raises important (though familiar) issues for the use of stated preference methods in policy analysis.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Evolution of decision-making and learning under fluctuating social environments

The capacity to learn to associate sensory perceptions with appropriate motor actions underlies the success of many animal species, from insects to humans. The evolutionary significance of learning has long been a subject of interest for evolutionary biologists who emphasize the bene¬fit yielded by learning under changing environmental conditions, where it is required to flexibly switch from one behavior to another. However, two unsolved questions are particularly impor¬tant for improving our knowledge of the evolutionary advantages provided by learning, and are addressed in the present work. First, because it is possible to learn the wrong behavior when a task is too complex, the learning rules and their underlying psychological characteristics that generate truly adaptive behavior must be identified with greater precision, and must be linked to the specific ecological problems faced by each species. A framework for predicting behavior from the definition of a learning rule is developed here. Learning rules capture cognitive features such as the tendency to explore, or the ability to infer rewards associated to unchosen actions. It is shown that these features interact in a non-intuitive way to generate adaptive behavior in social interactions where individuals affect each other's fitness. Such behavioral predictions are used in an evolutionary model to demonstrate that, surprisingly, simple trial-and-error learn¬ing is not always outcompeted by more computationally demanding inference-based learning, when population members interact in pairwise social interactions. A second question in the evolution of learning is its link with and relative advantage compared to other simpler forms of phenotypic plasticity. After providing a conceptual clarification on the distinction between genetically determined vs. learned responses to environmental stimuli, a new factor in the evo¬lution of learning is proposed: environmental complexity. A simple mathematical model shows that a measure of environmental complexity, the number of possible stimuli in one's environ¬ment, is critical for the evolution of learning. In conclusion, this work opens roads for modeling interactions between evolving species and their environment in order to predict how natural se¬lection shapes animals' cognitive abilities. - La capacité d'apprendre à associer des sensations perceptives à des actions motrices appropriées est sous-jacente au succès évolutif de nombreuses espèces, depuis les insectes jusqu'aux êtres hu¬mains. L'importance évolutive de l'apprentissage est depuis longtemps un sujet d'intérêt pour les biologistes de l'évolution, et ces derniers mettent l'accent sur le bénéfice de l'apprentissage lorsque les conditions environnementales sont changeantes, car dans ce cas il est nécessaire de passer de manière flexible d'un comportement à l'autre. Cependant, deux questions non résolues sont importantes afin d'améliorer notre savoir quant aux avantages évolutifs procurés par l'apprentissage. Premièrement, puisqu'il est possible d'apprendre un comportement incorrect quand une tâche est trop complexe, les règles d'apprentissage qui permettent d'atteindre un com¬portement réellement adaptatif doivent être identifiées avec une plus grande précision, et doivent être mises en relation avec les problèmes écologiques spécifiques rencontrés par chaque espèce. Un cadre théorique ayant pour but de prédire le comportement à partir de la définition d'une règle d'apprentissage est développé ici. Il est démontré que les caractéristiques cognitives, telles que la tendance à explorer ou la capacité d'inférer les récompenses liées à des actions non ex¬périmentées, interagissent de manière non-intuitive dans les interactions sociales pour produire des comportements adaptatifs. Ces prédictions comportementales sont utilisées dans un modèle évolutif afin de démontrer que, de manière surprenante, l'apprentissage simple par essai-et-erreur n'est pas toujours battu par l'apprentissage basé sur l'inférence qui est pourtant plus exigeant en puissance de calcul, lorsque les membres d'une population interagissent socialement par pair. Une deuxième question quant à l'évolution de l'apprentissage concerne son lien et son avantage relatif vis-à-vis d'autres formes plus simples de plasticité phénotypique. Après avoir clarifié la distinction entre réponses aux stimuli génétiquement déterminées ou apprises, un nouveau fac¬teur favorisant l'évolution de l'apprentissage est proposé : la complexité environnementale. Un modèle mathématique permet de montrer qu'une mesure de la complexité environnementale - le nombre de stimuli rencontrés dans l'environnement - a un rôle fondamental pour l'évolution de l'apprentissage. En conclusion, ce travail ouvre de nombreuses perspectives quant à la mo¬délisation des interactions entre les espèces en évolution et leur environnement, dans le but de comprendre comment la sélection naturelle façonne les capacités cognitives des animaux.

RQIA Review of the implementation of Promoting Quality Care (PQC) Good Practice Guidance on the Assessment and Management of Risk in Mental Health and Learning Disability Services (PDF1.07MB)

Overview Report October 2012

Regional Guidelines for the Search of Patients, their Belongings and the Environment of Care within Adult Mental Health and Learning Disability Inpatient Settings

The overarching purpose of these guidelines is to ensure the safety and promote the protection of patients, staff and visitors by ensuring that dangerous items or hazardous substances are not brought into the in-patient setting, including illicit substances, prescribed / over the counter medications, dangerous items and alcohol or any other hazardous or potentially hazardous item or substance.

AgShare : Building Community and Content with Multiple Partners

Michigan State University and OER Africa are creating a win-win collaboration of existing organizations for African publishing, localizing, and sharing of teaching and learning materials that fill critical resource gaps in African MSc agriculture curriculum. By the end of the 18-month planning and pilot initiative, African agriculture universities, faculty, students, researchers, NGO leaders, extension staff, and farmers will participate in building AgShare by demonstrating its benefits and outcomes and by building momentum and support for growth.

Open to the users' needs : combining user-centered design, standards and open source software

This case study introduces our continuous work to enhance the virtual classroom in order to provide faculty and students with an environment open to their needs, compliant with learning standards and, therefore compatible with other e-learning environments, and based on open source software. The result is a modulable, sustainable and interoperable learning environment that can be adapted to different teaching and learning situations by incorporating the LMS integrated tools as well as wikis, blogs, forums and Moodle activities among others.