Stock market volatility and learning


Autoria(s): Marcet, Albert; Adam, Klaus; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
Contribuinte(s)

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica

Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica

Data(s)

03/04/2008

Resumo

Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

Formato

55

567796 bytes

application/pdf

Identificador

http://hdl.handle.net/2072/5296

Idioma(s)

eng

Relação

Working papers; 732.08

Direitos

Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús de Creative Commons, amb la qual es permet copiar, distribuir i comunicar públicament l'obra sempre que se'n citin l'autor original, la universitat, la unitat i l’institut i no se'n faci cap ús comercial ni obra derivada, tal com queda estipulat en la llicència d'ús (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/es/)

Palavras-Chave #Borsa de valors
Tipo

info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper