Editorial: Dimensions of knowledge-based urban development

This issue marks the beginning of a new editorial cycle. In the seventh volume of the journal the editorial team will continue collating novel scientific and social developments in the broader field of ‘knowledge-based development’ to report to our readers. In this perspective, the first issue of the volume focuses on different dimensions of knowledge-based urban development. As Gabe et al. (2012, p.1179) indicate, “[i]t would be an understatement to suggest that knowledge plays a key role in today’s economy; for much of the developed world, it might be more accurate to assert that knowledge is today’s economy”. Thus, knowledge generation has been a priority for global city administrations, and there is a growing consensus amongst scholars, planners, politicians and industrialists in identifying knowledge-based urban development as a panacea to the burgeoning economic problems (Knight, 1995; Kunzmann, 2009; Yigitcanlar, 2010, 2011; Huggins and Strakova, 2012; Lönnqvist et al., 2014). Although, in the era of global knowledge economy, knowledge-based urban development is a critical factor for economic success (Pratt, 2000; Sheppard, 2002), it is not solely an economic policy. For many, knowledge-based urban development is a policy that targets building an urban setting to form perfect climates for business, people, and governance in an environmentally friendly atmosphere (Carrillo, 2006; Ergazakis et al., 2006; Angelidou et al., 2012). Each of these climates correspond to a dimension or domain of knowledge-based urban development – namely, economy, society, space, and governance (Carrillo et al., 2014). Each paper of this issue corresponds to at least one of these domains, or policy areas.

Knowledge unlatched : A global library consortium model for funding Open Access scholarly books

Specialist scholarly books, including monographs, allow researchers to present their work, pose questions and to test and extend areas of theory through long-form writing. In spite of the fact that research communities all over the world value monographs and depend heavily on them as a requirement of tenure and promotion in many disciplines, sales of this kind of book are in free fall, with some estimates suggesting declines of as much as 90% over twenty years (Willinsky 2006). Cashstrapped monograph publishers have found themselves caught in a negative cycle of increasing prices and falling sales, with few resources left to support experimentation, business model innovation or engagement with digital technology and Open Access (OA). This chapter considers an important attempt to tackle failing markets for scholarly monographs, and to enable the wider adoption of OA licenses for book-length works: the 2012 – 2014 Knowledge Unlatched pilot. Knowledge Unlatched is a bold attempt to reconfigure the market for specialist scholarly books: moving it beyond the sale of ‘content’ towards a model that supports the services valued by scholarly and wider communities in the context of digital possibility. Its success has powerful implications for the way we understand copyright’s role in the creative industries, and the potential for established institutions and infrastructure to support the open and networked dynamics of a digital age.

Place making for knowledge generation and innovation: Planning and branding Brisbane’s knowledge community precincts

Knowledge generation and innovation have been a priority for global city administrators particularly during the last couple of decades. This is mainly due to the growing consensus in identifying knowledge-based urban development as a panacea to the burgeoning economic problems. Place making has become a critical element for success in knowledge-based urban development as planning and branding places is claimed to be an effective marketing tool for attracting investment and talent. This paper aims to investigate the role of planning and branding in place making by assessing the effectiveness of planning and branding strategies in the development of knowledge and innovation milieus. The methodology of the study comprises reviewing the literature thoroughly, developing an analysis framework, and utilizing this framework in analyzing Brisbane’s knowledge community precincts—namely Boggo Road Knowledge Precinct, Kelvin Grove Urban Knowledge Village, and Sippy Downs Knowledge Town. The analysis findings generate invaluable insights in Brisbane’s journey in place making for knowledge and innovation milieus and communities. The results suggest as much as good planning, branding strategies and practice, the requirements of external and internal conditions also need to be met for successful place making in knowledge community precincts.

'Hero to healing' drink driving program for Indigenous communities in Far North Queensland

Issue addressed: Alcohol-related road crashes are a leading cause of the injury burden experienced by Indigenous Australians. Existing drink driving programs are primarily designed for the mainstream population. The ‘Hero to Healing’ program was specifically developed with Indigenous communities and is underpinned by the Community Reinforcement Approach (CRA). This paper reports on the formative evaluation of the program from delivery in two Far North Queensland communities. Methods: Focus groups and semistructured interviews were conducted with drink driver participants (n = 17) and other Elders and community members (n = 8) after each program. Qualitative content analysis was used to categorise the transcripts. Results: The CRA appealed to participants because of its flexible nature and encouragement of rearranging lifestyle factors, without specific focus on alcohol use. Participants readily identified with the social and peer-related risk and protective factors discussed. Cofacilitation of the program with Elders was identified as a key aspect of the program. More in-depth discussion about cannabis and driving, anger management skills and relationship issues are recommended. Conclusions: Participants’ recognition of content reinforced earlier project results, particularly the use of kinship pressure to motivate younger family members to drink drive. Study findings suggest that the principles of the CRA are useful; however, some amendments to the CRA components and program content were necessary. So what?: Treating drink driving in regional and remote Indigenous Australian communities as a community and social issue, rather than an individual phenomenon, is likely to lead to a reduction in the number of road-related injuries Indigenous people experience.

Global and EU governance for sustainable forest management with special reference to capacity building in Ethiopia and Southern Sudan

The purpose of this study was to produce information on and practical recommendations for informed decision-making on and capacity building for sustainable forest management (SFM) and good forest governance. This was done within the overall global framework for sustainable development with special emphasis on the EU and African frameworks and on Southern Sudan and Ethiopia in particular. The case studies on Southern Sudan and Ethiopia focused on local, national and regional issues. Moreover, this study attempted to provide both theoretical and practical new insight. The aim was to build an overall theoretical framework and to study its key contents and main implications for SFM and good forest governance at all administration levels, for providing new tools for capacity building in natural resources management. The theoretical framework and research approach were based on the original research problem and the general and specific aims of the study. The key elements of the framework encompass sustainable development, global and EU governance, sustainable forest management (SFM), good forest governance, as well as international and EU law. The selected research approach comprised matrix-based assessment of international, regional (EU and Africa) and national (Southern Sudan and Ethiopia) policy and legal documents. The specific case study on Southern Sudan also involved interviews and group discussions with local community members and government officials. As a whole, this study attempted to link the global, regional, national and local levels in forest-sector development and especially to analyse how the international policy development in environmental and forestry issues is reflected in field-level progress towards SFM and good forest governance, for the specific cases of Southern Sudan and Ethiopia. The results on Southern Sudan focused on the existing situation and perceived needs in capacity building for SFM and good forest governance at all administration levels. Specifically, the results of the case study on Southern Sudan presented the current situation in selected villages in the northern parts of Renk County in Upper Nile State, and the implications of Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and of the new forest policy framework for capacity building actions. The results on Ethiopia focused on training, extension, research, education and new curriculum development within higher education institutions and particularly at the Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources (WGCF-NR), which administratively lies under Hawassa University. The results suggest that, for both cases studies, informed decision-making on and capacity building for SFM and good forest governance require comprehensive, long-term, cross-sectoral, coherent and consistent approaches within the dynamic and evolving overall global framework, including its multiple inter-linked levels. The specific priority development and focus areas comprised the establishment of SFM and good forest governance in accordance with the overall sustainable development priorities and with more focus on the international trade in forest products that are derived from sustainable and legal sources with an emphasis on effective forest law enforcement and governance at all levels. In Upper Nile State in Southern Sudan there were positive development signals such as the will of the local people to plant more multipurpose trees on farmlands and range lands as well as the recognition of the importance of forests and trees for sustainable rural development where food security is a key element. In addition, it was evident that the local communities studied in Southern Sudan also wanted to establish good governance systems through partnerships with all actors and through increased local responsibilities. The results also suggest that the implementation of MEAs at the local level in Southern Sudan requires mutually supportive and coherent approaches within the agreements as well as significantly more resources and financial and technical assistance for capacity building, training and extension. Finally, the findings confirm the importance of full utilization of the existing local governance and management systems and their traditional and customary knowledge and practices, and of new development partnerships with full participation of all stakeholders. The planned new forest law for Southern Sudan, based on an already existing new forest policy, is expected to recognize the roles of local-level actors, and it would thus obviously facilitate the achieving of sustainable forest management.

The Protection of Traditional Knowledge Associated with Genetic Resources: The Role of Databases and Registers

"The Protection of Traditional Knowledge Associated with Genetic Resources: The Role of Databases and Registers" ABSTRACT Yovana Reyes Tagle The misappropriation of TK has sparked a search for national and international laws to govern the use of indigenous peoples knowledge and protection against its commercial exploitation. There is a widespread perception that biopiracy or illegal access to genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge (TK) continues despite national and regional efforts to address this concern. The purpose of this research is to address the question of how documentation of TK through databases and registers could protect TK, in light of indigenous peoples increasing demands to control their knowledge and benefit from its use. Throughout the international debate over the protection of TK, various options have been brought up and discussed. At its core, the discussion over the legal protection of TK comes down to these issues: 1) The doctrinal question: What is protection of TK? 2) The methodological question: How can protection of TK be achieved? 3) The legal question: What should be protected? And 4) The policy questions: Who has rights and how should they be implemented? What kind of rights should indigenous peoples have over their TK? What are the central concerns the TK databases want to solve? The acceptance of TK databases and registers may bring with it both opportunities and dangers. How can the rights of indigenous peoples over their documented knowledge be assured? Documentation of TK was envisaged as a means to protect TK, but there are concerns about how documented TK can be protected from misappropriation. The methodology used in this research seeks to contribute to the understanding of the protection of TK. The steps taken in this research attempt to describe and to explain a) what has been done to protect TK through databases and registers, b) how this protection is taking place, and c) why the establishment of TK databases can or cannot be useful for the protection of TK. The selected case studies (Peru and Venezuela) seek to illustrate the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of the establishment of TK databases, which entail not only legal but also political, socio-economic and cultural issues. The study offers some conclusions and recommendations that have emerged after reviewing the national experiences, international instruments, work of international organizations, and indigenous peoples perspectives. This thesis concludes that if TK is to be protected from disclosure and unauthorized use, confidential databases are required. Finally, the TK database strategy needs to be strengthened by the legal protection of the TK itself.

The Context and Diffusion of Knowledge in the Finnish Jewellery Industry - The role of the House of Fabergé

Researchers within the fields of economic geography and organizational management have extensively studied learning and the prerequisites and impediments for knowledge transfer. This paper combines two discourses within the two subjects: the-communities-of-practice and the learning region approaches, merging them through the so-called ecology of knowledge-approach, which is used to examine the knowledge transfer from the House of Fabergé to the Finnish jewellery industry. We examine the pre-revolution St Petersburg jewellery cluster and the post-revolution Helsinki, and the transfer of knowledge between these two locations through the components of communities of people, institutions and industry. The paper shows that the industrial dynamics of the Finnish modern-day goldsmith industry was inherently shaped both through the transfer and the non-transfer of knowledge. It also contends that the “knowledge-economy” is not anchored in and exclusive for the high technology sector of the late 20th century.

Plant communities of field margins : the effects of management and environmental factors on species composition and diversity

Agri-environmental schemes have so far resulted in only minor positive implications for the biodiversity of agricultural environments, in contrast to what has been expected. Land-use intensification has decreased landscape heterogeneity and the amount of semi-natural habitats. Field margins are uncultivated areas of permanent vegetation located adjacent to fields. Since the number of these habitats is high, investing in their quality may result in more diverse agricultural landscapes. Field margins can be considered as multifunctional habitats providing agronomic, environmental and wildlife services. This thesis aimed at examining the plant communities of different types of field margin habitats and the factors affecting their species diversity and composition. The importance of edaphic, spatial and management factors was studied on regional, landscape and habitat scales. Vegetation surveys were conducted on regional and landscape scales and a field experiment on cutting management was conducted on a habitat scale. In field margin plant communities, species appeared to be indicators of high or intermediate soil fertility and moist soil conditions. The plant species diversity found was rather low, compared with most species-rich agricultural habitats in Finland, such as dry meadows. Among regions, land-use history, main production line, natural species and human induced distribution, climate and edaphic factors were elements inducing differences in species composition. The lowest regional species diversity of field margins was related to intensive and long-term cereal production. Management by cutting and removal or grazing had a positive effect on plant species diversity. The positive effect of cutting and removal on species richness was also dependent on the adjacent source of colonizing species. Therefore, in species-poor habitats and landscapes, establishment of margins with diverse seed mixtures can be recommended for enhancing the development of species richness. However, seed mixtures should include only native species preferably local origin. Management by cutting once a year for 5 years did not result in a decline in dominance of a harmful weed species, Elymus repens, showing that E. repens probably needs cutting more frequently than once per year. Agri-environmental schemes should include long-term contracts with farmers for the establishment, and management by cutting and removal or grazing, of field margins that are several metres wide. In such schemes, the timing and frequency of management should be planned so as not to harm other taxa, such as the insects and birds that are dependent on these habitats. All accidental herbicide drifts to field margins should be avoided when spraying the cultivated area to minimize the negative effects of sprayings on vegetation. The harmful effects of herbicides can be avoided by organic farming methods.

Fast- and drift-ice communities in the Bothnian Bay and the impact of UVA radiation on the Baltic Sea ice ecology

The aim of this thesis was to study ecology of Baltic Sea ice from two perspectives. In the first two studies, sea-ice ecology from riverine-influenced fast ice to drift ice in the Bothnian Bay was investigated, whereas the last two studies focus on the sensitivity of sea-ice bacteria and algae to UVA examined in situ. The seasonal sea ice cover is one of the main characteristics of the Baltic Sea, and despite the brackish parental water, the ice structure is similar to polar ice with saline brine inclusions, the sea ice habitat. The decreasing seawater salinity from the northern Baltic Sea to the Bothnian Bay translates to decreasing brine volumes along the gradient, governing the size and community structure of the food webs in ice. However, the drift and fast ice in the Bothnian Bay may differ greatly in this sense, as drift ice may have been formed at more southern locations. Rafting and the formation of snow ice are common processes in the ice field of the Bothnian Bay. As evidenced in this thesis, rafting altered the vertical distribution of organisms and snow-ice formation provided habitable space in the better-illuminated, nitrogen-rich surface layer. The divergence between fast and drift ice became apparent at the more advanced stages, and chlorophyte biomass decreased from fast to drift ice, while the opposite held true for protozoan and metazoan biomass. The brine volumes affected the communities somewhat, and a higher percentage of flagellate species was generally linked to lower brine volumes, whereas chain-forming diatoms were mostly concentrated in layers with larger brine volumes. These results add to knowledge of the ecological significance of the ice cover lasting up to 7 months per year in this area. Sea-ice food webs are generally light-limited, but while increasing light irradiances typically enhance the primary production and further, the secondary production in sea ice, any increase in solar radiation also includes an increase in harmful UVA radiation. The Baltic Sea ice microbial communities were clearly sensitive to UVA and the responses were strongly linked to the earlier light history, as well as to the solar irradiances they were exposed to. The increased biomass of chlorophytes and pennate diatoms, when UVA was excluded, indicates that their normally minor contribution to the biomass in the upper layers of sea ice might be partly dictated by UVA. The effects of UVA on bacterial production in Baltic Sea ice mostly followed the responses in algal growth, but occasionally the exposure to UVA even enhanced the bacterial production. The dominant bacterial class, Flavobacteria, seemed to be UVA-tolerant, whereas all the Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria present in the surface layer showed UVA sensitivity. These results indicate that changes in the light field of ice may alter the community structure and affect the functioning of ice food webs, and are of importance when the effects of thinning of the ice cover are assessed.

Molecular profiling of indoor microbial communities in moisture damaged and non-damaged buildings

Epidemiological studies have shown an elevation in the incidence of asthma, allergic symptoms and respiratory infections among people living or working in buildings with moisture and mould problems. Microbial growth is suspected to have a key role, since the severity of microbial contamination and symptoms show a positive correlation, while the removal of contaminated materials relieves the symptoms. However, the cause-and-effect relationship has not been well established and knowledge of the causative agents is incomplete. The present consensus of indoor microbes relies on culture-based methods. Microbial cultivation and identification is known to provide qualitatively and quantitatively biased results, which is suspected to be one of the reasons behind the often inconsistent findings between objectively measured microbiological attributes and health. In the present study the indoor microbial communities were assessed using culture-independent, DNA based methods. Fungal and bacterial diversity was determined by amplifying and sequencing the nucITS- and16S-gene regions, correspondingly. In addition, the cell equivalent numbers of 69 mould species or groups were determined by quantitative PCR (qPCR). The results from molecular analyses were compared with results obtained using traditional plate cultivation for fungi. Using DNA-based tools, the indoor microbial diversity was found to be consistently higher and taxonomically wider than viable diversity. The dominant sequence types of fungi, and also of bacteria were mainly affiliated with well-known microbial species. However, in each building they were accompanied by various rare, uncultivable and unknown species. In both moisture-damaged and undamaged buildings the dominant fungal sequence phylotypes were affiliated with the classes Dothideomycetes (mould-like filamentous ascomycetes); Agaricomycetes (mushroom- and polypore-like filamentous basidiomycetes); Urediniomycetes (rust-like basidiomycetes); Tremellomycetes and the family Malasseziales (both yeast-like basidiomycetes). The most probable source for the majority of fungal types was the outdoor environment. In contrast, the dominant bacterial phylotypes in both damaged and undamaged buildings were affiliated with human-associated members within the phyla Actinobacteria and Firmicutes. Indications of elevated fungal diversity within potentially moisture-damage-associated fungal groups were recorded in two of the damaged buildings, while one of the buildings was characterized by an abundance of members of the Penicillium chrysogenum and P. commune species complexes. However, due to the small sample number and strong normal variation firm conclusions concerning the effect of moisture damage on the species diversity could not be made. The fungal communities in dust samples showed seasonal variation, which reflected the seasonal fluctuation of outdoor fungi. Seasonal variation of bacterial communities was less clear but to some extent attributable to the outdoor sources as well. The comparison of methods showed that clone library sequencing was a feasible method for describing the total microbial diversity, indicated a moderate quantitative correlation between sequencing and qPCR results and confirmed that culture based methods give both a qualitative and quantitative underestimate of microbial diversity in the indoor environment. However, certain important indoor fungi such as Penicillium spp. were clearly underrepresented in the sequence material, probably due to their physiological and genetic properties. Species specific qPCR was a more efficient and sensitive method for detecting and quantitating individual species than sequencing, but in order to exploit the full advantage of the method in building investigations more information is needed about the microbial species growing on damaged materials. In the present study, a new method was also developed for enhanced screening of the marker gene clone libraries. The suitability of the screening method to different kinds of microbial environments including biowaste compost material and indoor settled dusts was evaluated. The usability was found to be restricted to environments that support the growth and subsequent dominance of a small number microbial species, such as compost material.

WEPA: Wind energy potential assessment-spatial decision support system

Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) assist in strategic decision-making activities considering spatial and temporal variables, which help in Regional planning. WEPA is a SDSS designed for assessment of wind potential spatially. A wind energy system transforms the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical or electrical energy that can be harnessed for practical use. Wind energy can diversify the economies of rural communities, adding to the tax base and providing new types of income. Wind turbines can add a new source of property value in rural areas that have a hard time attracting new industry. Wind speed is extremely important parameter for assessing the amount of energy a wind turbine can convert to electricity: The energy content of the wind varies with the cube (the third power) of the average wind speed. Estimation of the wind power potential for a site is the most important requirement for selecting a site for the installation of a wind electric generator and evaluating projects in economic terms. It is based on data of the wind frequency distribution at the site, which are collected from a meteorological mast consisting of wind anemometer and a wind vane and spatial parameters (like area available for setting up wind farm, landscape, etc.). The wind resource is governed by the climatology of the region concerned and has large variability with reference to space (spatial expanse) and time (season) at any fixed location. Hence the need to conduct wind resource surveys and spatial analysis constitute vital components in programs for exploiting wind energy. SDSS for assessing wind potential of a region / location is designed with user friendly GUI’s (Graphic User Interface) using VB as front end with MS Access database (backend). Validation and pilot testing of WEPA SDSS has been done with the data collected for 45 locations in Karnataka based on primary data at selected locations and data collected from the meteorological observatories of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Wind energy and its characteristics have been analysed for these locations to generate user-friendly reports and spatial maps. Energy Pattern Factor (EPF) and Power Densities are computed for sites with hourly wind data. With the knowledge of EPF and mean wind speed, mean power density is computed for the locations with only monthly data. Wind energy conversion systems would be most effective in these locations during May to August. The analyses show that coastal and dry arid zones in Karnataka have good wind potential, which if exploited would help local industries, coconut and areca plantations, and agriculture. Pre-monsoon availability of wind energy would help in irrigating these orchards, making wind energy a desirable alternative.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Regional research priorities in brain and nervous system disorders

The characteristics of neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders in low-and middle-income countries are unique and the burden that they have will be different from country to country. Many of the differences are explained by the wide variation in population demographics and size, poverty, conflict, culture, land area and quality, and genetics. Neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders that result from, or are worsened by, a lack of adequate nutrition and infectious disease still afflict much of sub-Saharan Africa, although disorders related to increasing longevity, such as stroke, are on the rise. In the Middle East and North Africa, major depressive disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder are a primary concern because of the conflict-ridden environment. Consanguinity is a serious concern that leads to the high prevalence of recessive disorders in the Middle East and North Africa and possibly other regions. The burden of these disorders in Latin American and Asian countries largely surrounds stroke and vascular disease, dementia and lifestyle factors that are influenced by genetics. Although much knowledge has been gained over the past 10 years, the epidemiology of the conditions in low-and middle-income countries still needs more research. Prevention and treatments could be better informed with more longitudinal studies of risk factors. Challenges and opportunities for ameliorating nervous-system disorders can benefit from both local and regional research collaborations. The lack of resources and infrastructure for health-care and related research, both in terms of personnel and equipment, along with the stigma associated with the physical or behavioural manifestations of some disorders have hampered progress in understanding the disease burden and improving brain health. Individual countries, and regions within countries, have specific needs in terms of research priorities.

An examination of the Community Fisheries Sub-Decree in Cambodia: changes and developments during the drafting process

This study examines the development of the Community Fisheries Sub-Decree. From its promulgation in late 2000 through its draft form in June 20021, this sub-decree has gone through over 25 drafts. Initially, the writing process involved the public intimately: community meetings were conducted, NGOs contributed their knowledge and expertise, and then, with these consultations in mind, the newly-formed Community Fisheries Development Office (CFDO) in the Department of Fisheries (DoF) drafted the sub-decree. Over the following year and a half, the sub-decree went through numerous changes, some of which fundamentally alter the tenor of the legislation. This includes the deletion of some of the primary issues of rural communities, such as what fishing gears they can use and whether they can participate in patrolling the fishing area. While the final form is still pending, there are many questions as to the positive effects that the sub-decree will ultimately have on people’s livelihoods when it is finally approved. This research was undertaken to track the development of the sub-decree to gain a better understanding of how the Cambodian policy-making system functions. Consultations were undertaken with the DoF and CFDO before the research began, both of which agreed to the study. It is hoped that this report will help not only those interested in community fisheries issues, but also those who want to advocate on other Cambodian development issues as well. Due to the sensitive nature of the subject material, and the fact that the sub-decree is still pending, the author has conducted interviews with the express purpose of keeping them confidential. Therefore, no individual will be quoted directly in this study. In addition, many of the English versions of the drafts examined were unofficial translations. The author has made no effort to correct the English in the drafts. Moreover, there are also questions regarding the drafts and their sequence, as no government records were kept of the process or the changes that were made along the way. These have been compiled after the fact. (33 p.)

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)