Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process

Potencial de mercado y estructura espacial de los salarios en las regiones españolas, 1955-1995

En este artículo se examina la relación existente entre los salarios de las regiones españolas y su potencial de mercado en el período 1955-1995. Se prueba la existencia de una estructura espacial de los salarios, en la que los salarios disminuyen al alejarnos de las regiones de renta elevada. Este resultado refuerza la hipótesis de la existencia de una dinámica aglomerativa en España durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Sin embargo, el efecto del potencial de mercado sobre los salarios disminuye en la segunda parte del período (1975-1995). Este resultado es consistente con la apertura de una senda de dispersión en la localización de la actividad industrial a partir de mediados de los setenta

Spanish unemployment : normative versus analytical regionalisation procedures

In applied regional analysis, statistical information is usually published at different territorial levels with the aim providing inforamtion of interest for different potential users. When using this information, there are two different choices: first, to use normative regions ( towns, provinces, etc.) or, second, to design analytical regions directly related with the analysed phenomena. In this paper, privincial time series of unemployment rates in Spain are used in order to compare the results obtained by applying yoy analytical regionalisation models ( a two stages procedure based on cluster analysis and a procedure based on mathematical programming) with the normative regions available at two different scales: NUTS II and NUTS I. The results have shown that more homogeneous regions were designed when applying both analytical regionalisation tools. Two other obtained interesting results are related with the fact that analytical regions were also more estable along time and with the effects of scales in the regionalisation process

Wage curves for Spain evidence from the family budget survey

This study explores the existence of a wage curve for Spain. To quantify this relationship for the Spanish economy, we used individual datafrom the EPF 1990-1991. The results show the presence of a wage curve with an elasticity of -0.13. The availability of very detailed information on wages and unemployment has also shown that less protected labour market groups -young workers, manual workers and building sector workers- have a higher elasticity of wages to local unemployment. These results could be interpreted as a greater facility of firms in these segments to settle wages as a function ofthe unemployment rate

Efectos regionales de la política monetaria : implicaciones para los países de la zona euro

De acuerdo con la teoría de las áreas monetàrias óptimas,los shocks asimétricos tienen un papel fundamental en la determinación de los beneficios y los costes derivados del establecimiento de una área monetaria. En este sentido, diferentes estudios recientes señalan una importante reducción del grado de asimetría de los shocks en términos reales a lo largo de los últimos años entre los países europeos como consecuencia de la mayor coordinación de las políticas económicas y de la aproximación de las estructuras productivas. De todas maneras, una de las cuestiones clave en el nuevo entorno económico, y que no ha sido demasiado considerada a la literatura reciente, es el posible papel desestabilitzador de la política monetaria común como consecuencia de las diferencias en los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en los distintos países y regiones de la Zona Euro. En este trabajo se considera la mencionada cuestión desde un punto de vista teórico y se analiza empíricamente la existencia de diferencias regionales en los efectos de la política monetaria llevada a término en España a lo largo de los últimos años con la finalidad d identificar los principales determinantes de esta asimetría en el ámbito europeo

The empirics of spatial competition: evidence from European regions

The New Economic Geography literature allows detailed analysis of the factors that determine the location decisions of firms in integrated markets. However, the competitive process is modelled in a rather rudimentary way, and the empirical evidence has usually been obtained from reduced-form econometric specifications. This study describes a structural model that takes into account strategic interactions between firms. We investigate the relationship between the degree of perceived competition ¿ not only from local firms but from firms in other regions ¿ and geographic concentration. The preliminary results indicate that, in aggregate terms, local firms present stronger competition than firms in other regions. Moreover, it is confirmed that greater geographical concentration of production reduces market power, due to the intensification of local competition; however, its impact on production costs is unclear.

Spanish unemployment : normative versus analytical regionalisation procedures

In applied regional analysis, statistical information is usually published at different territorial levels with the aim providing inforamtion of interest for different potential users. When using this information, there are two different choices: first, to use normative regions ( towns, provinces, etc.) or, second, to design analytical regions directly related with the analysed phenomena. In this paper, privincial time series of unemployment rates in Spain are used in order to compare the results obtained by applying yoy analytical regionalisation models ( a two stages procedure based on cluster analysis and a procedure based on mathematical programming) with the normative regions available at two different scales: NUTS II and NUTS I. The results have shown that more homogeneous regions were designed when applying both analytical regionalisation tools. Two other obtained interesting results are related with the fact that analytical regions were also more estable along time and with the effects of scales in the regionalisation process

The empirics of spatial competition: evidence from European regions

The New Economic Geography literature allows detailed analysis of the factors that determine the location decisions of firms in integrated markets. However, the competitive process is modelled in a rather rudimentary way, and the empirical evidence has usually been obtained from reduced-form econometric specifications. This study describes a structural model that takes into account strategic interactions between firms. We investigate the relationship between the degree of perceived competition ¿ not only from local firms but from firms in other regions ¿ and geographic concentration. The preliminary results indicate that, in aggregate terms, local firms present stronger competition than firms in other regions. Moreover, it is confirmed that greater geographical concentration of production reduces market power, due to the intensification of local competition; however, its impact on production costs is unclear.

A comparative long-memory Analysis between Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interest rates

Evidence exists that many natural facts are described better as a fractal. Although fractals are very useful for describing nature, it is also appropiate to review the concept of random fractal in finance. Due to the extraordinary importance of Brownian motion in physics, chemistry or biology, we will consider the generalization that supposes fractional Brownian motion introduced by Mandelbrot.The main goal of this work is to analyse the existence of long range dependence in instantaneous forward rates of different financial markets. Concretelly, we perform an empirical analysis on the Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interbanking interest rate. We work with three time series of daily data corresponding to 1 day operations from 28th March 1996 to 21st May 2002. From among all the existing tests on this matter we apply the methodology proposed in Taqqu, Teverovsky and Willinger (1995).

The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads

With European Monetary Union (EMU), there was an increase in the adjusted spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) of euro participating countries' sovereign securities over Germany and a decrease in those of non-euro countries. The objective of this paper is to study the reasons for this result, and in particular, whether the change in the price assigned by markets was due to domestic factors such as credit risk and/or market liquidity, or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence suggests that market size scale economies have increased since EMU for all European markets, so the effect of the various risk factors, even though it differs between euro and non-euro countries, is always dependent on the size of the market.

The work of Spanish men. A quantitative analysis based on census data, 1900-1970

This paper presents a historical examination of employment in old age in Spain, in order to characterize this labour segment and identify and analyse its specific problems. One of these problems is the life-cycle deskilling process, already shown for certain national cases. This study explores whether this hypothesis also holds in Spain. The perspective used is essentially quantitative, as our analysis is based on the age-profession tables in Spanish population censuses from 1900 to 1970.

On the dimension of the core of the assignment game

The set of optimal matchings in the assignment matrix allows to define a reflexive and symmetric binary relation on each side of the market, the equal-partner binary relation. The number of equivalence classes of the transitive closure of the equal-partner binary relation determines the dimension of the core of the assignment game. This result provides an easy procedure to determine the dimension of the core directly from the entries of the assignment matrix and shows that the dimension of the core is not as much determined by the number of optimal matchings as by their relative position in the assignment matrix.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

Wage curves for Spain evidence from the family budget survey

This study explores the existence of a wage curve for Spain. To quantify this relationship for the Spanish economy, we used individual datafrom the EPF 1990-1991. The results show the presence of a wage curve with an elasticity of -0.13. The availability of very detailed information on wages and unemployment has also shown that less protected labour market groups -young workers, manual workers and building sector workers- have a higher elasticity of wages to local unemployment. These results could be interpreted as a greater facility of firms in these segments to settle wages as a function ofthe unemployment rate