Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

A pilot randomised trial of Medilixir cream shows some promising results, but control treatment may have been inappropriate

Aim To test the efficacy of Medilixir [cream] against the standard treatment of aqueous cream in the provision of relief from the symptoms of postburn itch. Design RCT with two parallel arms. Setting Professor Stuart Pegg Adult Burns Centre, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Participants Fifty-two patients aged between 18 and 80 years, admitted directly to the burns centre between 10 March and 22 July 2008, were able to provide informed consent, and had shown no allergic reaction to a patch test with the study medication, were randomised. Patients admitted from intensive care or high dependency were excluded. Main results Effect estimates and confidence intervals were not reported for any of the outcomes; only group means/proportions and P-values from hypothesis testing were provided. More patients in the intervention group reported itch reduction compared to comparison treatment (91 vs. 82%, P=0.001). Itch recurrence after cream application occurred later in the intervention group compared to the control group (P<0.001). Use of antipruritic medication was significantly greater in the control group (P=0.023). There was no difference in sleep disturbance between groups (not quantified). On average, Medilixir took longer to apply than aqueous cream (157s for Medilixir vs. 139s for aqueous cream; mean difference 17s), but authors noted that the groups did not differ significantly (CI for mean difference and P-values were not reported).

The effectiveness of an intervention in reducing risk of dioxin exposure in Da Nang : changes in community knowledge, attitudes and prevention practices after 2.5 years

Introduction Environmental and biological samples taken around Da Nang Air Base have shown elevated levels of dioxin over many years [1-3]. A pre-intervention knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey (2009), a risk reduction program (2010) and a post intervention KAP survey (2011) were undertaken in four wards surrounding Danang Airbase. A follow-up evaluation was undertaken in 2013. Methods A KAP survey was implemented among 400 randomly selected food handlers. Eleven indepth interviews and four focus group discussions were also undertaken. Results The knowledge of respondents remained positive and/or improved at 2.5 years follow-up. There were no significant differences in attitudes toward preventing dioxin exposure across surveys; most respondents were positive in all three surveys. An increase in households (69.5%) undertaking measures to prevent exposure was observed, which was higher than in the pre-intervention survey (39.6%) and post- intervention survey (60.4%) (χ2 = 95.6; p < 0.001). The proportion of respondents practicing appropriate preventive measures was also significantly improved. Conclusions Despite most of the intervention program’s activities ceasing in 2010, the risk reduction program has resulted in positive outcomes over the longer-term, with many knowledge and attitude measures remaining stable or imporving. Some KAP indicators decreased, but these KAP indicators were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels.

The molecular structure of the phosphate mineral beraunite Fe2+Fe⅗+(PO4)4(OH)5⋅4H2O– A vibrational spectroscopic study

The mineral beraunite from Boca Rica pegmatite in Minas Gerais with theoretical formula Fe2+Fe5 3+(PO4)4(OH)5⋅4H2O has been studied using a combination of electron microscopy with EDX and vibrational spectroscopic techniques. Raman spectroscopy identifies an intense band at 990 cm-1 and 1011 cm-1. These bands are attributed to the PO4 3- v, symmetric stretching mode. The m3 antisymmetric stretching modes are observed by a large number of Raman bands. The Raman bands at 1034, 1051, 1058, 1069 and 1084 together with the Raman bands at 1098, 1116, 1133, 1155 and 1174 cm-1 are assigned to the m3 antisymmetric stretching vibrations of PO4 3- and the HOPO3 2- units. The observation of these multiple Raman bands in the symmetric and antisymmetric stretching region gives credence to the concept that both phosphate and hydrogen phosphate units exist in the structure of beraunite. The series of Raman bands at 567, 582,601, 644, 661, 673, and 687 cm-1 are assigned to the PO4 3- v2 bending modes. The series of Raman bands at 437, 468, 478, 491, 503 cm-1 are attributed to the PO4 3- and OPO3 2- v4 bending modes. No Raman bands of beraunite which could be attributed to the hydroxyl stretching unit were observed. Infrared bands at 3511 and 3359 cm-1 are ascribed to the OH stretching vibration of the OH units. Very broad bands at 3022 and 3299 cm-1 are attributed to the OH stretching vibrations of water. Vibrational spectroscopy offers insights into the molecular structure of the phosphate mineral beraunite.

Solid-state structure of some substituted hexahydro-1,4:5,8-diepoxy­naphthalenes

The structure of several carboxy-substituted hexahydro-1,4:5,8-diepoxynaphthalenes have been solved with X-ray crystallography, in some cases confirming previously contentious structures. The compounds of interest are constructed in efficient one-step 2 × [4+2] cycloaddition reactions from furan and acetylene carboxylate derivatives.

Energy Transformed : Building Capacity in the Engineering Profession in Australia

Global pressures of burgeoning population growth and consumption are threatening efforts to reduce negative environmental pressures associated with development such as atmospheric, land and water pollution. For example, the world’s population is now growing at over 70 million per year or 1 billion per decade (Brown, 2007), increasing from 3.5 billion in 1970, to 5 billion in 1990, to 7 billion by 2010 (United Nations, 2002). In 1990 only 13 percent of the global population lived in cities, while in 2007 more than half did. More than 60 percent of the global population lives within 100 kilometers of the coastline (World Resources Institute, 2005) and nearly all of the population growth hereon is forecast to happen in developing countries (Postel, 1999). Future levels of stress on the global environment are therefore likely to increase if current trends are used for forecasting, which is particularly challenging as scientists are already observing significant signs of degradation and failure in environmental systems. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) provided an nequivocal link between climate change and current human activities, in particular: the burning of fossil fuels; deforestation and land clearing; the use of synthetic greenhouse gases; and decomposition of wastes from landfill. The UK Stern Review concluded that within our lifetime there is between a 77 to 99 percent chance (depending on the climate model used) of the global average temperature rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius (Stern, 2006), with a likely greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere of 550 parts per million (ppm) or more by around 2100.

“I drove after drinking alcohol” and other risky driving behaviours reported by young novice drivers in Queensland, Australia

Background. Volitional risky driving behaviours such as drink- and drug-driving (i.e. substance-impaired driving) and speeding contribute to the overrepresentation of young novice drivers in road crash fatalities, and crash risk is greatest during the first year of independent driving in particular. Aims. To explore the: 1) self-reported compliance of drivers with road rules regarding substance-impaired driving and other risky driving behaviours (e.g., speeding, driving while tired), one year after progression from a Learner to a Provisional (intermediate) licence; and 2) interrelationships between substance-impaired driving and other risky driving behaviours (e.g., crashes, offences, and Police avoidance). Methods. Drivers (n = 1,076; 319 males) aged 18-20 years were surveyed regarding their sociodemographics (age, gender) and self-reported driving behaviours including crashes, offences, Police avoidance, and driving intentions. Results. A relatively small proportion of participants reported driving after taking drugs (6.3% of males, 1.3% of females) and drinking alcohol (18.5% of males, 11.8% of females). In comparison, a considerable proportion of participants reported at least occasionally exceeding speed limits (86.7% of novices), and risky behaviours like driving when tired (83.6% of novices). Substance-impaired driving was associated with avoiding Police, speeding, risky driving intentions, and self-reported crashes and offences. Forty-three percent of respondents who drove after taking drugs also reported alcohol-impaired driving. Discussion and Conclusions. Behaviours of concern include drink driving, speeding, novice driving errors such as misjudging the speed of oncoming vehicles, violations of graduated driver licensing passenger restrictions, driving tired, driving faster if in a bad mood, and active punishment avoidance. Given the interrelationships between the risky driving behaviours, a deeper understanding of influential factors is required to inform targeted and general countermeasure implementation and evaluation during this critical driving period. Notwithstanding this, a combination of enforcement, education, and engineering efforts appear necessary to improve the road safety of the young novice driver, and for the drink-driving young novice driver in particular.

Nanostructured high strength Mg-5%Al-x%Nd alloys prepared by mechanical alloying

Nanostructured high strength Mg-5%Al-x%Nd alloys were prepared by mechanical alloying. Microstructural characterization reveled average crystalline size to be about 30 nm after mechanical alloying while it increased to about 90 nm after sintering and extrusion. Mechanical properties showed increase in 0.2% yield stress, ultimate tensile strength was attributed to reduction in gain size as well as to the enhanced diffusion after mechanical activation. Although ultra high yield stress was observed from the specimen with 5% Nd, its ductility was reduced to about 1.6%.

Time kinetics of bone defect healing in response to BMP-2 and GDF-5 characterised by in vivo biomechanics

This study reports that treatment of osseous defects with different growth factors initiates distinct rates of repair. We developed a new method for monitoring the progression of repair, based upon measuring the in vivo mechanical properties of healing bone. Two different members of the bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) family were chosen to initiate defect healing: BMP-2 to induce osteogenesis, and growth-and-differentiation factor (GDF)-5 to induce chondrogenesis. To evaluate bone healing, BMPs were implanted into stabilised 5 mm bone defects in rat femurs and compared to controls. During the first two weeks, in vivo biomechanical measurements showed similar values regardless of the treatment used. However, 2 weeks after surgery, the rhBMP-2 group had a substantial increase in stiffness, which was supported by the imaging modalities. Although the rhGDF-5 group showed comparable mechanical properties at 6 weeks as the rhBMP-2 group, the temporal development of regenerating tissues appeared different with rhGDF-5, resulting in a smaller callus and delayed tissue mineralisation. Moreover, histology showed the presence of cartilage in the rhGDF-5 group whereas the rhBMP-2 group had no cartilaginous tissue. Therefore, this study shows that rhBMP-2 and rhGDF-5 treated defects, under the same conditions, use distinct rates of bone healing as shown by the tissue mechanical properties. Furthermore, results showed that in vivo biomechanical method is capable of detecting differences in healing rate by means of change in callus stiffness due to tissue mineralisation.

4-Methoxyanilinium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate

In the structure of the title salt C7H10NO+ C8H3Cl2O4- the benzene planes of the cation and anion are essentially parallel [inter-ring dihedral angle 4.8(2)deg]. In the anion the carboxylic acid and carboxylate groups make dihedral angles of 19.0(2) and 79.5(2)\%, respectively, with the benzene ring. Aminium N-H...O, carboxylic acid O-H...O and weak aromatic C-H...O hydrogen-bonding associations with carboxyl O-atom acceptors together with cation-anion pi-pi ring interactions [minimum ring centroid separation = 3.734(3)Ang] give a two-dimensional sheet structure which lies parallel to (001).

Poly-[μ-aqua-μ5-[(2,3,6-trichlorophenyl)acetato)-caesium]

In the structure of the title complex [Cs(C8H4Cl3O2)(H2O)]n, the Cs salt of the commercial herbicide fenac [(2,3,6-trichlorophenyl)acetic acid], the irregular eight-coordination about Cs+ comprises a bidentate chelate (O:Cl) interaction involving a carboxyl O-atom and an ortho-related ring substituted Cl atom which is also bridging, a triple-bridging carboxyl O-atom and a bridging water molecule. A two-dimensional sheet polymer is generated, lying parallel to (100), within which there are water O---H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen-bonding interactions.

Mice lacking β-Adrenergic receptors have increased bone mass but are not protected from deleterious skeletal effects of ovariectomy

Activation of β2-adrenergic receptors inhibits osteoblastic bone formation and enhances osteoclastic bone resorption. Whether β-blockers inhibit ovariectomy-induced bone loss and decrease fracture risk remains controversial. To further explore the role of β-adrenergic signaling in skeletal acquisition and response to estrogen deficiency, we evaluated mice lacking the three known β-adrenergic receptors (β-less). Body weight, percent fat, and bone mineral density were significantly higher in male β-less than wild-type (WT) mice, more so with increasing age. Consistent with their greater fat mass, serum leptin was significantly higher in β-less than WT mice. Mid-femoral cross-sectional area and cortical thickness were significantly higher in adult β-less than WT mice, as were femoral biomechanical properties (+28 to +49%, P < 0.01). Young male β-less had higher vertebral (1.3-fold) and distal femoral (3.5-fold) trabecular bone volume than WT (P < 0.001 for both) and lower osteoclast surface. With aging, these differences lessened, with histological evidence of increased osteoclast surface and decreased bone formation rate at the distal femur in β-less vs. WT mice. Serum tartrate-resistance alkaline phosphatase-5B was elevated in β-less compared with WT mice from 8–16 wk of age (P < 0.01). Ovariectomy inhibited bone mass gain and decreased trabecular bone volume/total volume similarly in β-less and WT mice. Altogether, these data indicate that absence of β-adrenergic signaling results in obesity and increased cortical bone mass in males but does not prevent deleterious effects of estrogen deficiency on trabecular bone microarchitecture. Our findings also suggest direct positive effects of weight and/or leptin on bone turnover and cortical bone structure, independent of adrenergic signaling.

Poly[μ-aqua-aqua-μ5-(4-nitrobenzoato)-caesium]

In the structure of the title complex [Cs(C7H4N2O2)(H2O)2]n, the Cs salt of 4-nitrobenzoic acid, the irregular CsO9 coordination sphere comprises three bridging nitro O-donors, a bidentate carboxyl (O,O')-chelate interaction, a triple-bridging water molecule and a monodentate water molecule. A three-dimensional framework polymer is generated, within which there are water O-H...Ocarboxyl and water O-H...O(water) hydrogen-bonding interactions.

Poly[μ-aqua-bis(μ5-2,4-dichlorobenzoato)dipotassium

In the title compound, [K2(C7H3Cl2O2)2(H2O)]n, the potassium salt of 2,4-dichlorobenzoic acid, the repeating unit in the polymeric structure consists of two identical irregular KO6Cl complex units related by twofold rotational symmetry, linked by a bridging water molecule lying on the twofold axis. The coordination polyhedron about each K+ comprises a carboxyl O-atom and a Cl-atom donor from a bidentate chelate ligand interaction, four O-atom donors from a doubly bridging bidentate carboxyl (O,O')-chelate interaction and the water molecule. A two-dimensional layered coordination polymer structure lying parallel to (100) is generated through a series of conjoined cyclic bridges between K centres and is stabilized by water O-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen-bonding interactions.

Proton-transfer and non-transfer compounds of the multi-purpose drug dapsone [4-(4-Aminophenylsulfonyl)aniline] with 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid and 5-nitroisophthalic acid

The structures of the compounds from the reaction of the drug dapsone [4-(4-aminophenylsulfonyl)aniline] with 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid, the salt hydrate [4-(4-aminohenylsulfonyl)anilinium 2-carboxy-4,6-dinitrophenolate monohydrate] (1) and the 1:1 adduct with 5-nitroisophthalic acid [4-(4-aminophenylsulfonyl)aniline 5-nitrobenzene-1,3-dicarboxylic acid] (2) have been determined. Crystals of 1 are triclinic, space group P-1, with unit cell dimensions a = 8.2043(3), b = 11.4000(6), c = 11.8261(6)Å, α = 110.891(5), β = 91.927(3), γ = 98.590(4)deg. and Z = 4. Compound 2 is orthorhombic, space group Pbcn, with unit cell dimensions a = 20.2662(6), b = 12.7161(4), c = 15.9423(5)Å and Z = 8. In 1, intermolecular analinium N-H…O and water O-H…O and O-H…N hydrogen-bonding interactions with sulfone, carboxyl, phenolate and nitro O-atom and aniline N-atom acceptors give a two-dimensional layered structure. With 2, the intermolecular interactions involve both aniline N-H…O and carboxylic acid O-H…O and O-H…N hydrogen bonds to sulfone, carboxyl, nitro and aniline acceptors, giving a three-dimensional network structure. In both structures π--π aromatic ring associations are present.