Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

Stem injection: a control technique often overlooked for exotic woody weeds

In the rangelands of northern Australia, basal bark, cut stump, hand applied residual herbicides and foliar spraying have traditionally been the main herbicide techniques for control of individual exotic woody weeds growing within scattered to medium density infestations. In this paper we report on the preliminary results of stem injection as an alternate technique for the control of yellow oleander ( Cascabela thevetia (L.) Lippold), a woody weed that is difficult to kill. A randomised complete block experiment comprising 12 herbicide treatments (including a control) and three replicates was undertaken. Two rates of triclopyr + picloram, hexazinone, glyphosate, 2,4- D + picloram and metsufuron methyl and one rate of imazapyr were tested. At 15 months after application, triclopyr + picloram, glyphosate, 2,4-D + picloram and imazapyr all recorded high mortality (>90%) for at least one application rate. These results suggest that stem injection warrants further investigation as a control technique for other exotic woody weeds growing in rangelands.

Commentary: Chronic SSRI stimulation of astrocytic 5-HT2B receptors change multiple gene expressions/editings and metabolism of glutamate, glucose and glycogen: A potential paradigm shift

Working on the serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) 5-HT2B receptor since several years, we have read with high interest the review by Hertz et al. (2015). Previous studies from our group demonstrated that a direct injection in mouse raphe nucleus of the 5-HT2B agonist BW723C86 has the ability to increase extracellular levels of serotonin, which can be blocked by the selective 5-HT2B receptor antagonist RS127445 (Doly et al., 2008, 2009). We also reported that an acute injection of paroxetine 2 mg/kg in mice knocked out for the 5-HT2B receptor gene or in wild type mice injected with RS127445 (0.5 mg/kg) triggers a strong reduction in extracellular accumulation of 5-HT in hippocampus (Diaz et al., 2012). Following these observations, we showed that acute and chronic BW723C86 injection (3 mg/kg) can mimic the fluoxetine (3 mg/kg) and paroxetine (1 mg/kg) behavioral and biochemical antidepressant effects in mice (Diaz and Maroteaux, 2011; Diaz et al., 2012)...

Intraguild relationships between sympatric predators exposed to lethal control: predator manipulation experiments

INTRODUCTION:Terrestrial top-predators are expected to regulate and stabilise food webs through their consumptive and non-consumptive effects on sympatric mesopredators and prey. The lethal control of top-predators has therefore been predicted to inhibit top-predator function, generate the release of mesopredators and indirectly harm native fauna through trophic cascade effects. Understanding the outcomes of lethal control on interactions within terrestrial predator guilds is important for zoologists, conservation biologists and wildlife managers. However, few studies have the capacity to test these predictions experimentally, and no such studies have previously been conducted on the eclectic suite of native and exotic, mammalian and reptilian taxa we simultaneously assess. We conducted a series of landscape-scale, multi-year, manipulative experiments at nine sites spanning five ecosystem types across the Australian continental rangelands to investigate the responses of mesopredators (red foxes, feral cats and goannas) to contemporary poison-baiting programs intended to control top-predators (dingoes) for livestock protection.RESULT:Short-term behavioural releases of mesopredators were not apparent, and in almost all cases, the three mesopredators we assessed were in similar or greater abundance in unbaited areas relative to baited areas, with mesopredator abundance trends typically either uncorrelated or positively correlated with top-predator abundance trends over time. The exotic mammals and native reptile we assessed responded similarly (poorly) to top-predator population manipulation. This is because poison baits were taken by multiple target and non-target predators and top-predator populations quickly recovered to pre-control levels, thus reducing the overall impact of baiting on top-predators and averting a trophic cascade.CONCLUSIONS:These results are in accord with other predator manipulation experiments conducted worldwide, and suggest that Australian populations of native prey fauna at lower trophic levels are unlikely to be negatively affected by contemporary dingo control practices through the release of mesopredators. We conclude that contemporary lethal control practices used on some top-predator populations do not produce the conditions required to generate positive responses from mesopredators. Functional relationships between sympatric terrestrial predators may not be altered by exposure to spatially and temporally sporadic application of non-selective lethal control.

Vision under mesopic and scotopic illumination

Evidence has accumulated that rod activation under mesopic and scotopic light levels alters visual perception and performance. Here we review the most recent developments in the measurement of rod and cone contributions to mesopic color perception and temporal processing, with a focus on data measured using the four-primary photostimulator method that independently controls rod and cone excitations. We discuss the findings in the context of rod inputs to the three primary retinogeniculate pathways to understand rod contributions to mesopic vision. Additionally, we present evidence that hue perception is possible under scotopic, pure rod-mediated conditions that involves cortical mechanisms.

Sympatric prey responses to lethal top-predator control: predator manipulation experiments

Introduction Many prey species around the world are suffering declines due to a variety of interacting causes such as land use change, climate change, invasive species and novel disease. Recent studies on the ecological roles of top-predators have suggested that lethal top-predator control by humans (typically undertaken to protect livestock or managed game from predation) is an indirect additional cause of prey declines through trophic cascade effects. Such studies have prompted calls to prohibit lethal top-predator control with the expectation that doing so will result in widespread benefits for biodiversity at all trophic levels. However, applied experiments investigating in situ responses of prey populations to contemporary top-predator management practices are few and none have previously been conducted on the eclectic suite of native and exotic mammalian, reptilian, avian and amphibian predator and prey taxa we simultaneously assess. We conducted a series of landscape-scale, multi-year, manipulative experiments at nine sites spanning five ecosystem types across the Australian continental rangelands to investigate the responses of sympatric prey populations to contemporary poison-baiting programs intended to control top-predators (dingoes) for livestock protection. Results Prey populations were almost always in similar or greater abundances in baited areas. Short-term prey responses to baiting were seldom apparent. Longer-term prey population trends fluctuated independently of baiting for every prey species at all sites, and divergence or convergence of prey population trends occurred rarely. Top-predator population trends fluctuated independently of baiting in all cases, and never did diverge or converge. Mesopredator population trends likewise fluctuated independently of baiting in almost all cases, but did diverge or converge in a few instances. Conclusions These results demonstrate that Australian populations of prey fauna at lower trophic levels are typically unaffected by top-predator control because top-predator populations are not substantially affected by contemporary control practices, thus averting a trophic cascade. We conclude that alteration of current top-predator management practices is probably unnecessary for enhancing fauna recovery in the Australian rangelands. More generally, our results suggest that theoretical and observational studies advancing the idea that lethal control of top-predators induces trophic cascades may not be as universal as previously supposed.

Promoting kangaroo as a sustainable option for meat production on the rangelands of Australia

Implications •As kangaroo meat is sourced from native wildlife, conservation of the species is important in developing sustainable meat harvesting. Landholders, conservationists, and commercial meat producers need to work together to achieve this goal. •The production of high quality meat products from field-harvested carcasses can be augmented through a better understanding of the impact that field conditions and carcass handling have on final meat eating quality. •Food safety is also paramount, with measures taken to minimize the impacts of parasitism and microbial contamination. Any breaches of inspection protocols can only serve to undermine consumer confidence and viability of the industry.

Bayesian synthetic likelihood

Having the ability to work with complex models can be highly beneficial, but the computational cost of doing so is often large. Complex models often have intractable likelihoods, so methods that directly use the likelihood function are infeasible. In these situations, the benefits of working with likelihood-free methods become apparent. Likelihood-free methods, such as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood that uses the likelihood of an alternative parametric auxiliary model, have been explored throughout the literature as a good alternative when the model of interest is complex. One of these methods is called the synthetic likelihood (SL), which assumes a multivariate normal approximation to the likelihood of a summary statistic of interest. This paper explores the accuracy and computational efficiency of the Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (BSL) approach in comparison to a competitor known as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and its sensitivity to its tuning parameters and assumptions. We relate BSL to pseudo-marginal methods and propose to use an alternative SL that uses an unbiased estimator of the exact working normal likelihood when the summary statistic has a multivariate normal distribution. Several applications of varying complexity are considered to illustrate the findings of this paper.

Making the most of spatial information in health: A tutorial in Bayesian disease mapping for areal data

Disease maps are effective tools for explaining and predicting patterns of disease outcomes across geographical space, identifying areas of potentially elevated risk, and formulating and validating aetiological hypotheses for a disease. Bayesian models have become a standard approach to disease mapping in recent decades. This article aims to provide a basic understanding of the key concepts involved in Bayesian disease mapping methods for areal data. It is anticipated that this will help in interpretation of published maps, and provide a useful starting point for anyone interested in running disease mapping methods for areal data. The article provides detailed motivation and descriptions on disease mapping methods by explaining the concepts, defining the technical terms, and illustrating the utility of disease mapping for epidemiological research by demonstrating various ways of visualising model outputs using a case study. The target audience includes spatial scientists in health and other fields, policy or decision makers, health geographers, spatial analysts, public health professionals, and epidemiologists.

Efficient eucalypt cell wall deconstruction and conversion for sustainable lignocellulosic biofuels

In order to meet the world’s growing energy demand and reduce the impact of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from fossil fuel combustion, renewable plant-based feedstocks for biofuel production must be considered. The first-generation biofuels, derived from starches of edible feedstocks, such as corn, create competition between food and fuel resources, both for the crop itself and the land on which it is grown. As such, biofuel synthesized from non-edible plant biomass (lignocellulose) generated on marginal agricultural land will help to alleviate this competition. Eucalypts, the broadly defined taxa encompassing over 900 species of Eucalyptus, Corymbia, and Angophora are the most widely planted hardwood tree in the world, harvested mainly for timber, pulp and paper, and biomaterial products. More recently, due to their exceptional growth rate and amenability to grow under a wide range of environmental conditions, eucalypts are a leading option for the development of a sustainable lignocellulosic biofuels. However, efficient conversion of woody biomass into fermentable monomeric sugars is largely dependent on pretreatment of the cell wall, whose formation and complexity lend itself toward natural recalcitrance against its efficient deconstruction. A greater understanding of this complexity within the context of various pretreatments will allow the design of new and effective deconstruction processes for bioenergy production. In this review, we present the various pretreatment options for eucalypts, including research into understanding structure and formation of the eucalypt cell wall.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and artificial intelligence revolutionizing wildlife monitoring and conservation

Surveying threatened and invasive species to obtain accurate population estimates is an important but challenging task that requires a considerable investment in time and resources. Estimates using existing ground-based monitoring techniques, such as camera traps and surveys performed on foot, are known to be resource intensive, potentially inaccurate and imprecise, and difficult to validate. Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), artificial intelligence and miniaturized thermal imaging systems represent a new opportunity for wildlife experts to inexpensively survey relatively large areas. The system presented in this paper includes thermal image acquisition as well as a video processing pipeline to perform object detection, classification and tracking of wildlife in forest or open areas. The system is tested on thermal video data from ground based and test flight footage, and is found to be able to detect all the target wildlife located in the surveyed area. The system is flexible in that the user can readily define the types of objects to classify and the object characteristics that should be considered during classification.

Development of salinity tolerance in rice by constitutive-overexpression of genes involved in the regulation of programmed cell death

Environmental factors contribute to over 70% of crop yield losses worldwide. Of these drought and salinity are the most significant causes of crop yield reduction. Rice is an important staple crop that feeds more than half of the world’s population. However among the agronomically important cereals rice is the most sensitive to salinity. In the present study we show that exogenous expression of anti-apoptotic genes from diverse origins, AtBAG4 (Arabidopsis), Hsp70 (Citrus tristeza virus) and p35 (Baculovirus), significantly improves salinity tolerance in rice at the whole plant level. Physiological, biochemical and agronomical analyses of transgenic rice expressing each of the anti-apoptotic genes subjected to salinity treatment demonstrated traits associated with tolerant varieties including, improved photosynthesis, membrane integrity, ion and ROS maintenance systems, growth rate, and yield components. Moreover, FTIR analysis showed that the chemical composition of salinity-treated transgenic plants is reminiscent of non-treated, unstressed controls. In contrast, wild type and vector control plants displayed hallmark features of stress, including pectin degradation upon subjection to salinity treatment. Interestingly, despite their diverse origins, transgenic plants expressing the anti-apoptotic genes assessed in this study displayed similar physiological and biochemical characteristics during salinity treatment thus providing further evidence that cell death pathways are conserved across broad evolutionary kingdoms. Our results reveal that anti-apoptotic genes facilitate maintenance of metabolic activity at the whole plant level to create favorable conditions for cellular survival. It is these conditions that are crucial and conducive to the plants ability to tolerate/adapt to extreme environments.

Diversity in the Early Years: Intercultural Learning and Teaching

"New global contexts are presenting new challenges and new possibilities for young children and those around them. Climate change, armed conflict and poverty combine with new frontiers of discovery in science and technology to create a paradoxical picture of both threat and opportunity for our world and our children. On the one hand, children are experiencing unprecedented patterns of disparity and inequity; yet, on the other hand, they have seemingly limitless possibilities to engage with new technologies and social processes. Seismic shifts such as these are inviting new questions about the conditions that young children need to learn and thrive. Diversity in the Early Years: Intercultural Learning and Teaching explores significant aspects of working with children and adults from diverse backgrounds. It is a valuable resource for teaching early childhood pre-service teachers to raise awareness about issues of diversity - whether diversity of culture, language, education and/or gender - and for helping them to develop their own pedagogical approaches to working with diverse populations."--Publisher website

Prolonged consumption of sucrose in a binge-like manner, alters the morphology of medium spiny neurons in the nucleus accumbens shell

The modern diet has become highly sweetened, resulting in unprecedented levels of sugar consumption, particularly among adolescents. While chronic long-term sugar intake is known to contribute to the development of metabolic disorders including obesity and type II diabetes, little is known regarding the direct consequences of long-term, binge-like sugar consumption on the brain. Because sugar can cause the release of dopamine in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) similarly to drugs of abuse, we investigated changes in the morphology of neurons in this brain region following short- (4 weeks) and long-term (12 weeks) binge-like sucrose consumption using an intermittent two-bottle choice paradigm. We used Golgi-Cox staining to impregnate medium spiny neurons (MSNs) from the NAc core and shell of short- and long-term sucrose consuming rats and compared these to age-matched water controls. We show that prolonged binge-like sucrose consumption significantly decreased the total dendritic length of NAc shell MSNs compared to age-matched control rats. We also found that the restructuring of these neurons resulted primarily from reduced distal dendritic complexity. Conversely, we observed increased spine densities at the distal branch orders of NAc shell MSNs from long-term sucrose consuming rats. Combined, these results highlight the neuronal effects of prolonged binge-like intake of sucrose on NAc shell MSN morphology.

Systematic review of interventions to improve the provision of information for adults with primary brain tumours and their caregivers

Background: Adults with primary brain tumors and their caregivers have significant information needs. This review assessed the effect of interventions to improve information provision for adult primary brain tumor patients and/or their caregivers. Methods: We included randomized or nonrandomized trials testing educational interventions that had outcomes of information provision, knowledge, understanding, recall, or satisfaction with the intervention, for adults diagnosed with primary brain tumors and/or their family or caregivers. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Reviews databases were searched for studies published between 1980 and June 2014. Results: Two randomized controlled, one non-randomized controlled, and 10 single group pre-post trials enrolled more than 411 participants. Five group, four practice/process change and four individual interventions assessed satisfaction (12 studies), knowledge (four studies) or information provision (2 studies). Nine studies reported high rates of satisfaction. Three studies showed statistically significant improvements over time in knowledge and two showed greater information was provided to intervention than control group participants, although statistical testing was not performed. Discussion: The trials assessed intermediate outcomes such as satisfaction, and only 4/13 reported on knowledge improvements. Few trials had a randomized controlled design and risk of bias was either evident or could not be assessed in most domains.