The EU-Turkey Customs Union: A model for Future Euro-Med Integration. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 9/March 2012

This paper studying the 1995 EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) reveals that the CU has been a major instrument of integration of the Turkish economy into the EU and global markets, offering powerful tools to reform the Turkish economy. Turkish producers of industrial goods are protected by tariffs from external competition to exactly the same extent as EU producers, and they face competition from duty-free imports of industrial goods from world-class pan-European firms. In return, Turkish industrial producers have duty-free market access to the European Economic Area, which was recently extended to certain Mediterranean countries. Trade liberalisation achieved through the CU has thus successfully moved the Turkish economy from a government-controlled regime to a market-based one, and Turkish producers of industrial goods have performed remarkably well. The paper further shows that market access conditions for Turkish producers are determined, in addition to tariffs, by standards, conformity assessment procedures, competition policy, industrial property rights and contingent protectionism measures. The CU also offered Turkey the opportunity to establish new institutions, and modernise and upgrade rules and disciplines required for the elimination of technical barriers to trade, and for the implementation of the EU’s competition, industrial property rights, and contingent protectionism policies.

Transatlantic MRAs: Lessons for TTIP? CEPS Special Report No. 101/March 2015

It is striking that there is little or no mention in the TTIP debate so far of the US-EU Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) concluded in 1998. At the time, expectations of the gains from the MRA were high. One should expect the MRA to be instructive for TTIP and entail some lessons to be learned for today’s attempt to lower technical barriers to trade (TBTs) across the North Atlantic. We offer an analysis of the 1998 MRA, the difficulties in the prior negotiations and those during the implementation phase, the subsequent and present status of sectoral approaches. The MRA experience revealed clearly how difficult it is to accomplish the acceptance of all relevant aspects of conformity assessment of the trading partner for the mere purpose of testing and certifying export goods on the requirements of the importing economy. The MRA has succeeded only in a few sectors. However, the ambition in TTIP with respect to TBTs is said to go so much further. It is therefore important for all those involved or interested in TTIP to learn the lessons of this early exercise in lowering TBT costs. This paper reaches two main conclusions: i) the US-EU MRA was only partially successful and only for some one-fifth of the export flows at the time: a disappointing outcome and a far cry from the expectations of business and political leaders; and ii) the EU’s attempt to ‘balance’ the negotiations in 1995 by bringing in three relatively competitive sectors did not work out – it was precisely there that problems accumulated. It is critical that domestic regulators must be satisfied during and after the negotiations that their pursuit of health, safety, environment and consumer protection objectives will not be watered down in any way. Lessons drawn include, among others: MRAs are not about regulatory change (by definition), but if initial regulatory cleavages between trading partners are too wide, conditions become so restrictive that parties may regard them as a denial of the very purpose of the MRA. There are incentives to opt for alternatives in the market for the formalised designation of conformity assessment bodies in the MRA and these are often cheaper and faster, while equally qualified. Even in heavily regulated sectors such as medicines and medical devices, the narrow MRA has been superseded by near-global forms of effective cost-reducing cooperative (i.e. not treaty-based) regulatory alignment, a confirmation of the OECD approach that governments should think in terms of an entire spectrum of forms of regulatory cooperation.

Hanging Together, Falling Apart: Self-Understandings of German Society from 1800 to the Present. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 04.7 (Series 51), 1994

In recent years, interest in comtemporary conceptions and self-understandings of the social order has grown among historians, yet the field of an "intellectual history of society" is little expJored for modern Germany. This paper surveys the field and asks how Germans from the early modern era up to the present time of German reunification conceived of the social order they were building and living in, and it provides an overview of the developments of such major concepts as "estate" and "class," "community" and "society," "individual" and "mass," "state" and "nation." Three major points emerge as persistent and distinctive features of German social self-conception in the nineteenth cand twentieth centuries: the intellectual construction of dilemmas between social conformity and social fragmentation; the difficulties of conceiving of society as a plitical society; and the "futurization" of an idealized, utopian social roder of harmony that was hoped would one day replace the perceived social disintegration.

TTIP’s Hard Core: Technical barriers to trade and standards. Paper No. 13 in the CEPS-CTR project ‘TTIP in the Balance’ and CEPS Special Report No. 117/August 2015

Michelle Egan and Jacques Pelkmans provide an overview of the TBT chapter in TTIP and the various issues between the US and the EU in this area, which in turn requires extensive expositions of domestic regulation in the US and the EU. TBTs, outside heavily regulated sectors such as chemicals, automobiles or medicines (which have separate chapters in TTIP), can be caused by divergent (voluntary) standards, technical regulations and conformity assessment. Indeed, in all three the US and the EU have long experienced frictions with considerable trading costs. The 1998 Mutual Recognition Agreement about conformity assessment only succeeded in two out of six sectors. The US and European standardisation traditions differ and this paper explains why it is so hard, also economically, to realise convergence. However, the authors reject the unproductive ‘stand-off’ between US and EU negotiators on standardisation and suggest to clarify the enormous economic ‘installed base’ of prominent US standards in the world economy and build a solution from there. As to technical regulation, the prospect of converging regulation (via harmonisation) is often dim, but equivalence (given similar levels of regulatory protection) can be an option.

Essays on coordination problems in economics

No estudo da economia, há diversas situações em que a propensão de um indivíduo a tomar determinada ação é crescente na quantidade de outras pessoas que este indivíduo acredita que tomarão a mesma ação. Esse tipo de complementaridade estratégica geralmente leva à existência de múltiplos equilíbrios. Além disso, o resultado atingido pelas decisões decentralizadas dos agentes pode ser ineficiente, deixando espaço para intervenções de política econômica. Esta tese estuda diferentes ambientes em que a coordenação entre indivíduos é importante. O primeiro capítulo analisa como a manipulação de informação e a divulgação de informação afetam a coordenação entre investidores e o bem-estar em um modelo de corridas bancárias. No modelo, há uma autoridade reguladora que não pode se comprometer a revelar a verdadeira situação do setor bancário. O regulador observa informações idiossincráticas dos bancos (através de um stress test, por exemplo) e escolhe se revela essa informação para o público ou se divulga somente um relatório agregado sobre a saúde do sistema financeiro como um todo. O relatório agregado pode ser distorcido a um custo – um custo mais elevado significa maior credibilidade do regulador. Os investidores estão cientes dos incentivos do regulador a esconder más notícias do mercado, mas a manipulação de informação pode, ainda assim, ser efetiva. Se a credibilidade do regulador não for muito baixa, a política de divulgação de informação é estado-contingente, e existe sempre um conjunto de estados em que há manipulação de informação em equilíbrio. Se a credibilidade for suficientemente baixa, porém, o regulador opta por transparência total dos resultados banco-específicos, caso em que somente os bancos mais sólidos sobrevivem. Uma política de opacidade levaria a uma crise bancária sistêmica, independentemente do estado. O nível de credibilidade que maximiza o bem-estar agregado do ponto de vista ex ante é interior. O segundo e o terceiro capítulos estudam problemas de coordenação dinâmicos. O segundo capítulo analisa o bem-estar em um ambiente em que agentes recebem oportunidades aleatórias para migrar entre duas redes. Os resultados mostram que sempre que a rede de pior qualidade (intrínseca) prevalece, isto é eficiente. Na verdade, um planejador central estaria ainda mais inclinado a escolher a rede de pior qualidade. Em equilíbrio, pode haver mudanças ineficientes que ampliem a rede de qualidade superior. Quando indivíduos escolhem entre dois padrões ou redes com níveis de qualidade diferentes, se todos os indivíduos fizessem escolhas simultâneas, a solução eficiente seria que todos adotassem a rede de melhor qualidade. No entanto, quando há fricções e os agentes tomam decisões escalonadas, a solução eficiente difere ix do senso comum. O terceiro capítulo analisa um problema de coordenação dinâmico com decisões escalonadas em que os agentes são heterogêneos ex ante. No modelo, existe um único equilíbrio, caracterizado por thresholds que determinam as escolhas para cada tipo de agente. Apesar da heterogeneidade nos payoffs, há bastante conformidade nas ações individuais em equilíbrio. Os thresholds de diferentes tipos de agentes coincidem parcialmente contanto que exista um conjunto de crenças arbitrário que justifique esta conformidade. No entanto, as estratégias de equilíbrio de diferentes tipos nunca coincidem totalmente. Além disso, a conformidade não é ineficiente. A solução eficiente apresentaria estratégias ainda mais similares para tipos distintos em comparação com o equilíbrio decentralizado.

Chlorophyll-a concentrations in phytoplankton fractions in waters of the Black Sea

Comparison of daily and diel variability of chlorophyll-a concentration at three long-term stations in meso- and eutrophic regions indicates that their values are similar. Daily patterns of deviation in chlorophyll concentration in small and large phytoplankton fraction from average daily values are presented. In conformity with a hypothesis of daily removal rhythms correlated with changes in diel light-dark periods, it was concluded that the mesotrophic region during the dark period is characterized by predominance of grazing on large phytoplankton in the upper layers and accumulation of detritus from cell fragments in the lower layer, while during the light period smaller phytoplankton predominantly grazed. The eutrophic region is characterized by predominance of grazing on small phytoplankton fraction in the upper layers during the dark period and settling out of fecal pellets containing chlorophyll into deeper depths; but during the light period, large phytoplankton predominantly grazed throughout the whole water layer.

Radionuclides in the water column at stations near the Antarctic Polar Front in the South Atlantic

Vertical profiles of dissolved and particulate 230Th and 231Pa were obtained across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the southern Atlantic. North of the Polar Front, dissolved and total 230Th increase with depth in conformity with published scavenging models. There is no depletion of 230Th or 231Pa in the water column south of the Polar Front, thought to be an area of enhanced biological productivity. 230Th concentrations increase three-fold to the Weddell Sea across the ACC. Dissolved and total 231Pa concentrations are relatively constant below 500 m depth at about 0.3 dpm m**-3, and change little with depth or latitude. The results from the Weddell Gyre are explained by a mixing-scavenging model that takes into account the input of lower Circumpolar Deep Water through upwelling, which is the main source of water in the Weddell Gyre and is enriched in 230Th but not in 231Pa. 230Th accumulates in the Weddell Gyre as a result of a reduction in the scavenging rate and by ingrowth from 234U. Ingrowth is more significant for 230Th than for 231Pa because the residence time of water in the gyre (about 35 years) is similar to the scavenging residence time of Th in the south Atlantic (29 years) but shorter than that of Pa (120 years). It is argued that changes in 230Th accumulation in the past may reflect changes in water residence time and in the formation rate of Weddell Sea Deep Water.

Paleotemperature reconstructions of the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean

Diatom assemblages from ODP Leg 177 sites 1093, 1094 and core PS2089-2, from the present Antarctic sea ice free zone and close to the Polar Front, were analyzed in order to reconstruct the climate development around the Mid-Brunhes Event 400 000 yr ago, as reflected by summer sea surface temperature (SSST) and sea ice distribution. Dense sample spacing allows a mean temporal resolution during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (423-362 ka) of 300-400 yr. SSST values were estimated from diatom assemblages using a transfer function technique. The distribution pattern of sea ice diatoms indicates that the present-day ice free Antarctic Zone was seasonally covered by sea ice during the cold MIS 12 and MIS 10. These glacial periods are characterized by sea ice fluctuations with a periodicity of 3 and 1.85 kyr, suggesting the occurrence of Dansgaard-Oeschger-style millennial-scale oscillations in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean during the glacial stages MIS 12 and MIS 10. Termination V (MIS 12/11) is characterized by a distinct temperature increase of 4-6°C, intersected especially at the southern site 1094 and core PS2089-2 by two distinct cooling events reminiscent of the Younger Dryas, which are associated with a northward shift of the winter sea ice edge in the Antarctic Zone. The SSST record is characterized by distinct temperature intervals bounded by stepwise, rapid changes. Maximum temperatures were reached during Termination V and the early MIS 11, exceeding modern values by 2°C over a period of 8 kyr. This pattern indicates a very early response of the Southern Ocean to global climate on Milankovitch-driven climate variability. The SSST optimum is marked by millennial-scale temperature oscillations with an amplitude of ca. 1°C and periodicities of ca. 1.85 and 1.47 kyr, probably reflecting changes in the ocean circulation system. The SSSTs during the MIS 11 temperature optimum do not exceed values obtained from other interglacial optima such as the early periods of MIS 5 or MIS 1 from the Antarctic Zone. However, the total duration of the warmest period was distinctly longer than observed from other interglacials. The comparison of the South Atlantic climate record with a high-resolution record from ODP Leg 162, site 980from the North Atlantic shows a strong conformity in the climate development during the studied time interval.

Lucas' progressive drawing book, in three parts: : Part I--The principles of drawing in pencil, Part II--Colouring and shading in india ink, Part III--A treatise on perspective; : consisting chiefly of original views of American scenery, and embracing the latest and best improvements in the mode of instruction.

Poem "The colours" by E. Van Blon, part 2, p. [65]-66.

Studies in the role of the public school teacher,

Includes bibliographies.

Tracts relating to the reformation.

v. 2-3, "translated from the original Latin and French by Henry Beveridge."

A review of two journals found that articles using multivariable logistic regression frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions

Background and Objective: To examine if commonly recommended assumptions for multivariable logistic regression are addressed in two major epidemiological journals. Methods: Ninety-nine articles from the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology and the American Journal of Epidemiology were surveyed for 10 criteria: six dealing with computation and four with reporting multivariable logistic regression results. Results: Three of the 10 criteria were addressed in 50% or more of the articles. Statistical significance testing or confidence intervals were reported in all articles. Methods for selecting independent variables were described in 82%, and specific procedures used to generate the models were discussed in 65%. Fewer than 50% of the articles indicated if interactions were tested or met the recommended events per independent variable ratio of 10: 1. Fewer than 20% of the articles described conformity to a linear gradient, examined collinearity, reported information on validation procedures, goodness-of-fit, discrimination statistics, or provided complete information on variable coding. There was no significant difference (P >.05) in the proportion of articles meeting the criteria across the two journals. Conclusion: Articles reviewed frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions for using multivariable logistic regression. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Willingness to speak out about gay law reform: Some cause for optimism

We examined the extent to which people's private attitudes to gay law reform are influenced by the attitudes of others. Ninety-six university students were told that they were either in a minority or in a majority relative to their university group on their attitudes to gay law reform. Contrary to a number of assumptions made in the social psychological literature, participants who supported gay law reform were more prepared to act in line with their attitudes than were those who opposed gay law reform. Furthermore, anti-gay law reform participants appeared to reassess their attitudes when they were told they were in a minority; in contrast, pro-gay law reform participants were Unaffected by the group norm. This suggests that anti-gay law reform attitudes are softer and more easily influenced than are pro-gay law reform attitudes. The implications of these results for activists are discussed. (C) 2004 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

Expanding the scope of the social response context model

Descriptive models of social response are concerned with identifying and discriminating between different types of response to social influence. In a previous article (Nail, MacDonald, & Levy, 2000), the authors demonstrated that 4 conceptual dimensions are necessary to adequately distinguish between such phenomena as conformity, compliance, contagion, independence, and anticonformity in a single model. This article expands the scope of the authors' 4-dimensional approach by reviewing selected experimental and cultural evidence, further demonstrating the integrative power of the model. This review incorporates political psychology, culture and aggression, self-persuasion, group norms, prejudice, impression management, psychotherapy, pluralistic ignorance, bystander intervention/nonintervention, public policy, close relationships, and implicit attitudes.

Reacting to an assumed situation vs. conforming to an assumed reaction: The role of perceived speaker attitude in vicarious dissonance

Witnessing an ingroup member acting against his or her belief can lead individuals who identify with that group to change their own attitude in the direction of that counterattitudinal behavior. Two studies demonstrate this vicarious dissonance effect among high ingroup identifiers and show that this attitude change is not attributable to conformity to a perceived change in speaker attitude. Study I shows that the effect occurs-indeed, is stronger-even when it is clear that the speaker disagrees with the position espoused, and Study 2 shows that foreseeable aversive consequences bring about attitude change in the observer without any parallel impact on the perceived attitude of the speaker. Furthermore, the assumption that vicarious dissonance is at heart a group phenomenon is supported by the results indicating that attitude change is not impacted either by individual differences in dispositional empathy or measures of interpersonal affinity.