Inflation targeting, credibility and confidence crises

We study the interplay between the central bank transparency, its credibility, and the ination target level. Based on a model developed in the spirit of the global games literature, we argue that whenever a weak central bank adopts a high degree of transparency and a low target level, a bad and self conrmed type of equilibrium may arise. In this case, an over-the-target ination becomes more likely. The central bank is considered weak when favorable state of nature is required for the target to be achieved. On the other hand, if a weak central bank opts for less ambitious goals, namely lower degree of transparency and higher target level, it may avoid condence crises and ensure a unique equilibrium for the expected ination. Moreover, even after ruling out the possibility of condence crises, less ambitious goals may be desirable in order to attain higher credibility and hence a better coordination of expectations. Conversely, a low target level and a high central bank transparency are desirable whenever the economy has strong fundamentals and the target can be fullled in many states of nature.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties for a lack of parsimony, as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties. In order to compute the fit of each model, we propose an iterative procedure to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of a VAR model with short-run and long-run restrictions. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank, relative to the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration.

Voice over IP 2.0: an analysis of limits and potential of IP2IP telecommunication

Internet Telephony (VoIP) is changing the telecommunication industry. Oftentimes free, VoIP is becoming more and more popular amongst users. Large software companies have entered the market and heavily invest into it. In 2011, for instance, Microsoft bought Skype for 8.5bn USD. This trend increasingly impacts the incumbent telecommunication operators. They see their main source of revenue – classic telephony – under siege and disappear. The thesis at hand develops a most-likely scenario in order to determine how VoIP is evolving further and it predicts, based on a ten-year forecast, the impact it will have on the players in the telecommunication industry.The paper presents a model combining Rogers’ diffusion and Christensen’s innovation research. The model has the goal of explaining the past evolution of VoIP and to isolate the factors that determine the further diffusion of the innovation. Interviews with industry experts serve to assess how the identified factors are evolving.Two propositions are offered. First, VoIP operators are becoming more important in international, corporate, and mobile telephony. End-to-end VoIP (IP2IP) will exhibit strong growth rates and increasingly cannibalize the telephony revenues of the classic operators. Second, fix-net telephony in SMEs and at home will continue to be dominated by the incumbents. Yet, as prices for telephony fall towards zero also they will implement IP2IP in order to save costs. By 2022, up to 90% of the calls will be IP2IP. The author recommends the incumbents and VoIP operators to proactively face the change, to rethink their business strategies, and to even be open for cooperation.

O impacto do argumento ecológico em atitudes relativas a um produto de alto envolvimento

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo investigar as atitudes dos consumidores em relação ao anúncio, à marca e à intenção de compra de um produto com potencial para causar alto envolvimento no consumidor que utiliza um "argumento ecológico" para se posicionar. O estudo foi realizado por meio de um experimento que utilizou um projeto fatorial 3x2 – três "argumentos" publicitários e dois níveis de cor. A amostra foi composta por 286 alunos do curso de Administração de uma universidade particular de Curitiba-PR. Como base teórica foram utilizados principalmente a teoria das pistas (OLSON; JACOBI, 1972) e o Modelo de Probabilidade de Persuasão - MPE (PETTY; CACIOPPO, 1986). As hipóteses (H1, H2, H3) previam que os sujeitos que foram expostos ao "argumento ecológico" demonstrariam atitudes mais favoráveis em relação ao anúncio, à marca e à intenção de compra do que os sujeitos que foram expostos a um argumento "genérico". Da mesma forma, outro grupo de hipóteses (H4, H5, H6) previa que os sujeitos expostos a pista extrínseca – "argumento ecológico" demonstrariam atitudes mais favoráveis em relação ao anúncio, à marca e à intenção de compra do que os sujeitos expostos à pista intrínseca "argumento acessórios". Os resultados apontaram que os sujeitos expostos ao "argumento ecológico" foram sensibilizados e demonstraram atitudes mais favoráveis em relação ao anúncio e à intenção de compra. No entanto, mostraram-se indiferentes em relação à marca. Também foram encontradas atitudes diferentes em relação ao anúncio e à intenção de compra dependendo do grau de envolvimento do consumidor com o produto e o seu nível de consciência ecológica. Os resultados sugerem que a utilização de "argumentos ecológicos" como apelo persuasivo para divulgar produtos de alto envolvimento contribui para avaliação positiva do anúncio, mas não parecem agregar de forma significativa para imagem da marca, especialmente junto ao seu público alvo.

A (semi-)parametric functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we propose a class of ACD-type models that accommodates overdispersion, intermittent dynamics, multiple regimes, and sign and size asymmetries in financial durations. In particular, our functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration (FC-ACD) model relies on a smooth-transition autoregressive specification. The motivation lies on the fact that the latter yields a universal approximation if one lets the number of regimes grows without bound. After establishing that the sufficient conditions for strict stationarity do not exclude explosive regimes, we address model identifiability as well as the existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for the FC-ACD model with a fixed number of regimes. In addition, we also discuss how to consistently estimate using a sieve approach a semiparametric variant of the FC-ACD model that takes the number of regimes to infinity. An empirical illustration indicates that our functional coefficient model is flexible enough to model IBM price durations.

Investment coordination failures and the confidence channel of fiscal policy

Este trabalho desenvolve um novo "canal de Confiança" da política fiscal e caracteriza a política ótima quando esse canal é levado em consideração. Para esse objetivo, utilizamos um modelo estático com (i) concorrência monopolística, (ii) custos de ajustamento fixos para investir, (iii) complementaridade estratégica devido a informação imperfeita com respeito a produtividade agregada, e (iv) bens privados como substitutos imperfeitos de bens privados. Este arcabouço acomoda a possibilidade de falhas de coordenação nos investimentos, mas apresenta um equilíbrio único. Mostramos que a política fiscal tem efeitos importantes na coordenação. Um aumento dos gastos do governo leva a uma maior demanda por bens privados. Mais importante, este também afeta as expectativas de ordem superior com relação a demanda das demais firmas, que amplifica os efeitos do aumento inicial da demanda devido a complementaridade estratégica nas decisões de investimento. Como as demais firmas estão se deparam com uma demanda maior, espera-se que estas invistam mais, que por sua vez, aumenta a demanda individual de cada firma, que aumenta os incentivos a investir. Denominamos isto como o "canal de confiança" da política fiscal. Sob a ameaça de falhas de coordenação, a política fiscal ótima prescreve produzir além do ponto em que o benefício marginal resultante do consumo de bens públicos é igual ao custo marginal desses bens. Este benefício adicional vem do fato de que a política fiscal pode ampliar a coordenação dos investimentos.

On the cost of sympathy : a alternative model of insurance markets

The paper provides an alternative model for insurance market with three types of agents: households, providers of a service and insurance companies. Households have uncertainty about future leveIs of income. Providers, if hired by a household, perform a diagnoses and privately learn a signal. For each signal there is a procedure that maximizes the likelihood of the household obtaining the good state of nature. The paper assumes that providers care about their income and also about the likelihood households will obtain the good state of nature (sympathy assumption). This assumption is satisfied if, for example, they care about their reputation or if there are possible litigation costs in case they do not use the appropriate procedure. Finally, insurance companies offer contracts to both providers and households. The paper provides sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and shows that the sympathy assumption 1eads to a 10ss of welfare for the households due to the need to incentive providers to choose the least expensive treatment.

Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects

There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework.

Cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR) para o Ibovespa, pós crise de 2008, por meio dos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional (GARCH) e de volatilidade estocástica (Local Scale Model - LSM)

O objetivo deste estudo é propor a implementação de um modelo estatístico para cálculo da volatilidade, não difundido na literatura brasileira, o modelo de escala local (LSM), apresentando suas vantagens e desvantagens em relação aos modelos habitualmente utilizados para mensuração de risco. Para estimação dos parâmetros serão usadas as cotações diárias do Ibovespa, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2014, e para a aferição da acurácia empírica dos modelos serão realizados testes fora da amostra, comparando os VaR obtidos para o período de janeiro a dezembro de 2014. Foram introduzidas variáveis explicativas na tentativa de aprimorar os modelos e optou-se pelo correspondente americano do Ibovespa, o índice Dow Jones, por ter apresentado propriedades como: alta correlação, causalidade no sentido de Granger, e razão de log-verossimilhança significativa. Uma das inovações do modelo de escala local é não utilizar diretamente a variância, mas sim a sua recíproca, chamada de “precisão” da série, que segue uma espécie de passeio aleatório multiplicativo. O LSM captou todos os fatos estilizados das séries financeiras, e os resultados foram favoráveis a sua utilização, logo, o modelo torna-se uma alternativa de especificação eficiente e parcimoniosa para estimar e prever volatilidade, na medida em que possui apenas um parâmetro a ser estimado, o que representa uma mudança de paradigma em relação aos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional.

Asymptotic efficiency in an instrumental variable model

Esta dissertação se propõe ao estudo de inferência usando estimação por método generalizado dos momentos (GMM) baseado no uso de instrumentos. A motivação para o estudo está no fato de que sob identificação fraca dos parâmetros, a inferência tradicional pode levar a resultados enganosos. Dessa forma, é feita uma revisão dos mais usuais testes para superar tal problema e uma apresentação dos arcabouços propostos por Moreira (2002) e Moreira & Moreira (2013), e Kleibergen (2005). Com isso, o trabalho concilia as estatísticas utilizadas por eles para realizar inferência e reescreve o teste score proposto em Kleibergen (2005) utilizando as estatísticas de Moreira & Moreira (2013), e é obtido usando a teoria assintótica em Newey & McFadden (1984) a estatística do teste score ótimo. Além disso, mostra-se a equivalência entre a abordagem por GMM e a que usa sistema de equações e verossimilhança para abordar o problema de identificação fraca.

Avaliação do desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor em crianças na rede básica de saúde utilizando o teste de Denver II: identificação de fatores de risco materno

Alterations in the neuropsychomotor development of children are not rare and can manifest themselves with varying intensity at different stages of their development. In this context, maternal risk factors may contribute to the appearance of these alterations. A number of studies have reported that neuropsychomotor development diagnosis is not an easy task, especially in the basic public health network. Diagnosis requires effective, low-cost, and easy - to-apply procedures. The Denver Developmental Screening Test, first published in 1967, is currently used in several countries. It has been revised and renamed as the Denver II Test and meets the aforementioned criteria. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to apply the Denver II Test in order to verify the prevalence of suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in children between the ages of 0 and 12 months and correlate it with the following maternal risk factors: family income, schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during pregnancy, gestational age, gestational problems, type of delivery and the desire to have children. For data collection, performed during the first 6 months of 2004, a clinical assessment was made of 398 children selected by pediatricians and the nursing team of each public health unit. Later, the parents or guardians were asked to complete a structured questionnaire to determine possible risk indicators of neuropsychomotor development delay. Finally the Denver II Developmental Screening Test (DDST) was applied. The data were analyzed together, using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software, version 6.1. The confidence interval was set at 95%. The Denver II Test yielded normal and questionable results. This suggests compromised neuropsychomotor development in the children examined and deserves further investigation. The correlation of the results with preestablished maternal risk variables (family income, mother s schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during the pregnancy and gestational age) was strongly significant. The other maternal risk variables (gestational problems, type of delivery and desire to have children) were not significant. Using an adjusted logistic regression model, we obtained the estimate of the greater likelihood of a child having suspected neuropsychomotor development delay: a mother with _75 4 years of schooling, chronological age less than 20 years and a drug user during pregnancy. This study produced two manuscripts, one published in Acta Cirúrgica Brasileira , in which an analysis was performed of children with suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in the city of Natal, Brazil. The other paper (to be published) analyzed the magnitude of the independent variable maternal schooling associated to neuropsychomotor development delay, every 3 months during the first twelve months of life of the children selected.. The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of development and the cumulative effect of maternal risk factors, and show the need for a regional policy that promotes low-cost programs for the community, involving children at risk of neuropsychomotor development delay. Moreover, they suggest the need for better qualified health professionals in terms of monitoring child development. This was an inter- and multidisciplinary study with the integrated participation of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and professionals from other areas, such as statisticians and information technology professionals, who met all the requirements of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte

Farmacêuticos e suas atividades em farmácias comunitárias: uma análise de perfil

The aim of this study was to establish the profile of the pharmacist technician responsible for community pharmacies in the city of Natal/RN, featuring personal elements, perceived their role and place of pharmaceutical care, levels of job satisfaction, type and quality of services provided in human and structural framework. To that end, we made an exploratory cross-sectional study applying a questionnaire containing open and closed questions, which was applied to pharmaceutical technicians responsible for community pharmacies in Natal/RN, from September 2010 to September 2011. The sample was established by calculating the simple random sample, with a confidence level of 95% and a significance level of 0.05. To evaluate the satisfaction level of the activities performed by pharmacists in community pharmacies was used Simple Satisfaction Scale (Likert, 1935). To assess the attitudes and perceptions of pharmacists in relation to aspects of pharmaceutical care, we used the Model Attitude toward the object (Fishbein, Ajzen, 1975). The answers were converted into data were analyzed statistically using Epi Info 3.5.2 The results showed that the strengths and weaknesses in relation to the profile of the pharmacist and their activities in community pharmacies in Natal/RN are not different in other cities in the country . The most important aspects were: 51% (n = 90) of the establishments visited, the pharmacist was absent; 46% (n = 80) did not have postgraduate and of those who are or have completed 33% (n = 51) are in the area of Clinical Analysis; 56% (n = 98) 08h for day work and 64% (n = 111) claim that this load influence its performance; 83% (n = 146) receive as salary, the floor pharmacist regarding the state of Rio Grande do Norte; 44% (n = 76) are unhappy about the salary, which is the main difficulty cited; 78% (n = 136) say they are always sought by users and the receptivity of these considered good (52%, n = 91). The activities of higher satisfaction are those related to pharmaceutical care and lower the administrative. As regards attitudes and perceptions, the score was more negative to the question 'if the pharmacist feels working as a team with the doctor', in which 59% (n = 103) responded 'never'. 49% (n = 86) reported being "able" to take questions from users and 39% (n = 68) are 'dissatisfied' with respect to the structure of the practice of pharmacy to pharmaceutical care. Action is needed on the obstacles to the exercise of the pharmacist in the solution and minimize the negative and positive stimulus to

A participação popular na elaboração de políticas públicas de desenvolvimento local: um estudo no Município de Serrinha/RN (1997-2004)

The question of participation has been debated in Brazil since the 1980 decade in search a better way to take care of poulation s demand. More specificaly after the democratic open (1985) begins to be thought ways to make population participates of decisions related to alocation of public resources. The characteristic of participates actualy doesn t exist, population to be carried through is, at top, consulted, and the fact population participates stays restrict to some technics interests at the projects, mainly of public politics of local development. Observe that this implementation happens through a process and that has its limits (pass) that could be surpassed through strategies made to that. This dissertation shows results of a research about participative practices in city of Serrinha between 1997 and 2004, showing through a study of the case of Serrinha what was the process used to carry through these pratices in a moment and local considered model of this application. The analyses were developed through a model of research elaborated by the author based on large literature respects the ideal process to implant a participative public politics. The present research had a qualitative boarding, being explorative and descritive nature. The researcher (author of this dissertation) carried through all the research phases, including the transcriptions of interviews that were recorded with a digital voice recorder. Before the analysis of these data was verified that despite the public manager (former-mayor) had had a real interest in implant a process of local development in city, he was not able to forsee the correct process to do it. Two high faults were made. The first was the intention to have as tool a development plan, what locked up to make this plan was the booster of supossed participative pratice and no the ideal model that would be a plan generate by popular initiative. The second one was absence of a critical education project for the population that should be the fisrt step to carry through a politc like that

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

O Macrogênero drama Norte-Riograndense: uma análise de gênero e de discurso sob a perspectiva da linguística sistêmico-funcional

The focus of this qualiquantitative research is the phenomenon we are denominating Drama-of-Rio-Grande-do-Norte, which contemplates short verse texts from the oral tradition, sung and presented on stage by women in communities on the south coast of the northeastern Brazilian State, Rio Grande do Norte. This tradition harkens to the medieval romance of the Iberian Peninsula (CASCUDO, 2001; GURGEL, 1999; GALVÃO, 1993; MAGALHÃES, 1973; ROMERO,1977). The objective of this research is to: identify what characterizes the genre Drama of Rio Grande do Norte; situate this genre within a systemization of genres from the oral tradition in Rio Grande do Norte; investigate the interpersonal relationships of power and solidarity through the role of the women in the discourse, how they see themselves and others, pointing out which elements of the world they evaluate and to identify representations of the feminine in the discourse. The theory of Genre and Register of Martin and Rose (2008) and Generic Structure Potential of Hasan (1989, 1996), which has as a base the Systemic Functional Linguistics of Halliday and Matthiessen (2004), Eggins (1994) among others, offers a theoretical framework for the characterization of the genre through the identification of stages and phases configuring its typology the individual schematic structure and its topology its relation to other phenomena in the oral tradition. Other groupings were mapped of the ‗Macrogenre , from the model of Martin and Rose (2008) as a continuum on two axis: between the poles of how the genre circulates orally x in writing, and recited/individually x staged/collectively; as well as mapping the samples with relation to power using the same model, but with the poles of individual voice x collective voice on an axis between increased power and diminished power. Eleven texts described as Narratives and one Anecdote were selected for the analysis of Attitudes, and Negotiations of power. Through the quantification of semantic discursive resources in the discourse systems of Appraisal (MARTIN; WHITE, 2005) and of Negotiation (MARTIN; ROSE, 2007), as well as reflections about humor (EGGINS; SLADE, 1997) we identified the Attitudes and the Negotiations of interpersonal roles. The quantification is based on the theories of Corpus Linguistics (BERBER SARDINHA, 2010), using WordSmith Tools 5.0 (SCOTT, 2010). Our results show that the Drama-of-Rio-Grande-do-Norte is characterized as a Macrogenre in the Community of Oral Stories, in the Family of Street Theatre/Games, composed of five genre types: Narratives, Praise, Complaints, Anecdotes, and Exemplum. The Macrogenre is characterized by its being circulated orally, staged collectively and the texts analyzed configure in differing degrees of power between men and woman. In synthesis we observe that through humor, the Drama-of-Rio-Grande-do-Norte functions to offer a space for women to voice, comment, judge and orient about social conditions in their communities, such as alcoholism, domestic violence, inequalities before the law etc., as well as circulating positive appreciations of rural/coastal culture and judgments about the behavior of members of the speech community, the role of women being to establish and reinforce norms. We anticipate possible benefits of the addition of the genre analyzed in literacy projects in the schools of Rio Grande do Norte