Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer

Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error ($\sigma$ = 0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with covariates for age at-time-of-bombing, age at-time-of-death and gender. Excess risks were in good agreement with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from $-$15% to $-$30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative projection model was $-$37.1% for males and $-$23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased $-$27.1% for males and $-$43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 85 (DRREF = 2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.02%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risks increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10%/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04%/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for U.S. nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors. (Supported by U.S. NRC Grant NRC-04-091-02.) ^

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE SIZE AND POWER OF SOME TWO-SAMPLE TESTS FOR UNEQUALLY CENSORED SURVIVAL DATA (RANK TESTS, LOGRANK, PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS, WILCOXON TESTS, EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)

Sizes and power of selected two-sample tests of the equality of survival distributions are compared by simulation for small samples from unequally, randomly-censored exponential distributions. The tests investigated include parametric tests (F, Score, Likelihood, Asymptotic), logrank tests (Mantel, Peto-Peto), and Wilcoxon-Type tests (Gehan, Prentice). Equal sized samples, n = 18, 16, 32 with 1000 (size) and 500 (power) simulation trials, are compared for 16 combinations of the censoring proportions 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60%. For n = 8 and 16, the Asymptotic, Peto-Peto, and Wilcoxon tests perform at nominal 5% size expectations, but the F, Score and Mantel tests exceeded 5% size confidence limits for 1/3 of the censoring combinations. For n = 32, all tests showed proper size, with the Peto-Peto test most conservative in the presence of unequal censoring. Powers of all tests are compared for exponential hazard ratios of 1.4 and 2.0. There is little difference in power characteristics of the tests within the classes of tests considered. The Mantel test showed 90% to 95% power efficiency relative to parametric tests. Wilcoxon-type tests have the lowest relative power but are robust to differential censoring patterns. A modified Peto-Peto test shows power comparable to the Mantel test. For n = 32, a specific Weibull-exponential comparison of crossing survival curves suggests that the relative powers of logrank and Wilcoxon-type tests are dependent on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. Wilcoxon-type tests appear more powerful than logrank tests in the case of late-crossing and less powerful for early-crossing survival curves. Guidelines for the appropriate selection of two-sample tests are given. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEGREE OF BLOOD PRESSURE REDUCTION AND MORTALITY AMONG HYPERTENSIVES IN THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between degree of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reduction and mortality was examined among hypertensives, ages 30-69, in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center community-based trial, which followed 10,940 hypertensive participants for five years. One-year survival was required for inclusion in this investigation since the one-year annual visit was the first occasion where change in blood pressure could be measured on all participants. During the subsequent four years of follow-up on 10,052 participants, 568 deaths occurred. For levels of change in DBP and for categories of variables related to mortality, the crude mortality rate was calculated. Time-dependent life tables were also calculated so as to utilize available blood pressure data over time. In addition, the Cox life table regression model, extended to take into account both time-constant and time-dependent covariates, was used to examine the relationship change in blood pressure over time and mortality.^ The results of the time-dependent life table and time-dependent Cox life table regression analyses supported the existence of a quadratic function which modeled the relationship between DBP reduction and mortality, even after adjusting for other risk factors. The minimum mortality hazard ratio, based on a particular model, occurred at a DBP reduction of 22.6 mm Hg (standard error = 10.6) in the whole population and 8.5 mm Hg (standard error = 4.6) in the baseline DBP stratum 90-104. After this reduction, there was a small increase in the risk of death. There was not evidence of the quadratic function after fitting the same model using systolic blood pressure. Methodologic issues involved in studying a particular degree of blood pressure reduction were considered. The confidence interval around the change corresponding to the minimum hazard ratio was wide and the obtained blood pressure level should not be interpreted as a goal for treatment. Blood pressure reduction was attributed, not only to pharmacologic therapy, but also to regression to the mean, and to other unknown factors unrelated to treatment. Therefore, the surprising results of this study do not provide direct implications for treatment, but strongly suggest replication in other populations. ^

AN ILLNESS-DEATH PROCESS WITH TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATES

A general model for the illness-death stochastic process with covariates has been developed for the analysis of survival data. This model incorporates important baseline and time-dependent covariates to make proper adjustment for the transition probabilities and survival probabilities. The follow-up period is subdivided into small intervals and a constant hazard is assumed for each interval. An approximation formula is derived to estimate the transition parameters when the exact transition time is unknown.^ The method developed is illustrated by using data from a study on the prevention of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction and subsequent mortality, the Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This method provides an analytical approach which simultaneously includes provision for both fatal and nonfatal events in the model. According to this analysis, the effectiveness of the treatment can be compared between the Placebo and Propranolol treatment groups with respect to fatal and nonfatal events. ^

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

The number and timing of time -dependent covariate measurements for the Cox regression model

The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^

Chlorophyll content and temperature-dependent net photosynthesis and respiration rate in the lichen Cetraria aculeata

We studied polar and temperate samples of the lichen Cetraria aculeata to investigate whether genetical differences between photobionts are correlated with physiological properties of the lichen holobiont. Net photosynthesis and dark respiration (DR) at different temperatures (from 0 to 30 °C) and photon flux densities (from 0 to 1,200 ?mol/m**2/s) were studied for four populations of Cetraria aculeata. Samples were collected from maritime Antarctica, Svalbard, Germany and Spain, representing different climatic situations. Sequencing of the photobiont showed that the investigated samples fall in the polar and temperate clade described in Fernández-Mendoza et al. (2011, doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2010.04993.x). Lichens with photobionts from these clades differ in their temperature optimum for photosynthesis, maximal net photosynthesis, maximal DR and chlorophyll content. Maximal net photosynthesis was much lower in Antarctica and Svalbard than in Germany and Spain. The difference was smaller when rates were expressed by chlorophyll content. The same is true for the temperature optima of polar (11 °C) and temperate (15 and 17 °C) lichens. Our results indicate that lichen mycobionts may adapt or acclimate to local environmental conditions either by selecting algae from regional pools or by regulating algal cell numbers (chlorophyll content) within the thallus.

Chlorophyll a content, protist biomass and experimental plankton growth and mortality in West Greenland water samples

We evaluated the role of microzooplankton (sensu latto, grazers <500 µm) in determining the fate of phytoplankton production (PP) along a glacier-to-open sea transect in the Greenland subarctic fjord, Godthabfjord. Based on the distribution of size fractionated chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations we established 4 zones: (1) Fyllas Bank, characterized by deep chl a maxima (ca. 30 to 40 m) consisting of large cells, (2) the mouth and main branch of the fjord, where phytoplankton was relatively homogeneously distributed in the upper 30 m layer, (3) inner waters influenced by glacial melt water and upwelling, with high chl a concentrations (up to 12 µg/l) in the >10 µm fraction within a narrow (2 m) subsurface layer, and (4) the Kapisigdlit branch of the fjord, ice-free, and characterized with a thick and deep chl a maximum layer. Overall, microzooplankton grazing impact on primary production was variable and seldom significant in the Fyllas Bank and mouth of the fjord, quite intensive (up to >100% potential PP consumed daily) in the middle part of the main and Kapisigdlit branches of the fjord, and rather low and unable to control the fast growing phytoplankton population inhabiting the nutrient rich waters in the upwelling area in the vicinity of the glacier. Most of the grazing impact was on the <10 µm phytoplankton fraction, and the major grazers of the system seem to be >20 µm microzooplankton, as deducted from additional dilution experiments removing this size fraction. Overall, little or no export of phytoplankton out of the fjord to the Fyllas Bank can be determined from our data.

Temperature-dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)

Temperature-dependent population growth of diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.), a prolific insect pest of crucifer vegetables, was studied under six constant temperatures in the laboratory. The objective of the study was to predict the impacts of temperature changes on the population of DBM at high-resolution scales along altitudinal gradients and under climate change scenarios. Non-linear functions were fitted on the data for modeling the development, mortality, longevity and oviposition of the pest. The best-fitted functions for each life stage were compiled for estimating the life table parameters of the species by stochastic simulations. To quantify the impacts on the pest, three indices (establishment, generation and activity) were computed using the estimates of life table parameters and temperature data obtained at local scale (current scenario 2013) and downscaled climate change data (future scenario 2055) from the AFRICLIM database. To measure and represent the impacts of temperature change along the altitude on the pest; the indices were mapped along the altitudinal gradients of Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills, in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Potential impact of the changes between climate scenarios 2013 and 2055 was assessed. The data files included in this database were utilized for the above analysis to develop temperature dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella to assess current and future distribution along eastern African Afromontanes.

Calcareous dinocysts and grain size distribution along profile Stevns-Klint

The distribution patterns of calcareous dinoflagellate cysts were studied in the classic Cretaceous Tertiary (K-T) boundary section of Stevns Klint, Denmark, focusing mainly on the response of the cyst association to an abrupt environmental catastrophe. A major part of the Fish Clay, which covers the K-T boundary at its base and is exposed in the investigated section, contains fallout produced by an asteroid impact. Calcareous dinoflagenate cysts are the best preserved remains of carbonate-producing phytoplankton in this layer. The potential of this group of microfossils for the analysis of survival strategies and extinction patterns has been underestimated. The cyst species of the investigated section can be grouped into four assemblages that represent victims, survivors, opportunists, and specially adapted forms. The victims (Pithonelloideae) were an extremely successful group throughout the Upper Cretaceous, but were restricted to the narrow outer shelf. This restriction minimized their spatial distribution, which generally should be large to facilitate escape from unfavorable conditions. Spatial restriction optimized the population decrease by mass mortality, disabling a successful recovery. In contrast, the survivors that became the dominating group in the Danian had a wide spatial range from the shelf environment to the oceanic realm. A unique calcareous dinocyst assemblage in the Fish Clay shows that even under the stressed conditions immediately following the impact event, some species flourished due to special adaptation or high ecological tolerance. The ability of these dinoflagellate species to form calcareous resting cysts in combination with their generally wide spatial distribution in a variety of environments appears to be the main reason for a low extinction rate at the K-T boundary as opposed to the high extinction rate of other phytoplankton groups, such as the coccolithophorids.

Shell size variation of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sin. in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea during the last 1.3 Myr

We present measurements of the maximum diameter of the planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sin. from six sediment cores (Ocean Drilling Program sites 643, 644, 907, 909, 985 and 987) from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. Our data show a distinct net increase in mean shell size of N. pachyderma sin. at all sites during the last 1.3 Ma, with largest shell sizes reached after 0.4 Ma. External factors such as glacial-interglacial variability and carbonate dissolution alone cannot account for the observed variation in mean shell size of N. pachyderma sin. We consider the observed shell size increase to mirror an evolutionary trend towards better adaptation of N. pachyderma sin. to the cold water environment after 1.1-1.0 Ma. Probably, the Mid Pleistocene climate shift and the associated change of amplitude and frequency of glacial-interglacial fluctuations have triggered the evolution of this planktonic foraminifer. Oxygen and carbon stable isotope analyses of different shell size classes indicate that the observed shell size increase could not be explained by the functional concept that larger shells promote increasing sinking velocities during gametogenesis. For paleoceanographic reconstructions, the evolutionary adaptation of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sin. to the cold water habitat has significant implications. Carbonate sedimentation in highest latitudes is highly dependent on the presence of this species. In the Norwegian-Greenland Sea, carbonate-poor intervals before 1.1 Ma are, therefore, not necessarily related to severe glacial conditions. They are probably attributed to the absence of this not yet polar-adapted species. Further, transfer function and modern analog techniques used for the reconstruction of surface water conditions in high latitudes could, therefore, contain a large range of errors if they were applied to samples older than 1.1-1.0 Myrs.

Data compilation of respiration, feeding, and growth rates of marine pelagic organisms

The metabolic rate of organisms may either be viewed as a basic property from which other vital rates and many ecological patterns emerge and that follows a universal allometric mass scaling law; or it may be considered a property of the organism that emerges as a result of the organism's adaptation to the environment, with consequently less universal mass scaling properties. Data on body mass, maximum ingestion and clearance rates, respiration rates and maximum growth rates of animals living in the ocean epipelagic were compiled from the literature, mainly from original papers but also from previous compilations by other authors. Data were read from tables or digitized from graphs. Only measurements made on individuals of know size, or groups of individuals of similar and known size were included. We show that clearance and respiration rates have life-form-dependent allometries that have similar scaling but different elevations, such that the mass-specific rates converge on a rather narrow size-independent range. In contrast, ingestion and growth rates follow a near-universal taxa-independent ~3/4 mass scaling power law. We argue that the declining mass-specific clearance rates with size within taxa is related to the inherent decrease in feeding efficiency of any particular feeding mode. The transitions between feeding mode and simultaneous transitions in clearance and respiration rates may then represent adaptations to the food environment and be the result of the optimization of tradeoffs that allow sufficient feeding and growth rates to balance mortality.

Crystal size variations in Eemian-age ice from the GRIP ice core, Central Greenland

Continuous measurements of ice crystal size have been carried out on an 80 m sequence between 2790 and 2870 m depth in the GRIP ice core from Central Greenland. The ice in this interval is at present considered to orginate from the Eemian interglacial period. The record reveals that the crystal size in ice older than 100,000 yr is highly dependent on climatic conditions at the time of snowfall. This dependence shows up as a strong correlation between ?18O values and crystal size throughout the Eemian, as well as a negative correlation between crystal size and several soluble and insoluble impurities. Although high-resolution impurity records are available from selected parts of the Eemian ice, the study is not conclusive on which impurities are most effective in slowing grain growth. It is shown that the normal grain-growth process, commonly observed in the upper few hundred metres of polar ice sheets, does not yield grain sizes compatible with observed ones at this depth in the ice sheet, even in those parts of the Eemian ice where impurity drag effects are not present. Polygonization of crystals within the ice sheet and the nucleation and rapid growth of new grains at relatively high temperatures in the lowest part probably play an important role in producing the observed grain-size variations. The relevance of possible flow disturbances of the GRIP Eemian climatic record for the results presented is discussed briefly.

Grain-size distribution and frictional behaviour of sediment cores from the Nice Slope

The upper shelf of the landslide-prone Ligurian Margin (Western Mediterranean Sea) off Nice well-known for the 1979 Airport Landslide is a natural laboratory to study preconditioning factors and trigger mechanisms for submarine landslides. For this study low-stress ring shear experiments have been carried out on a variety of sediments from >50 gravity cores to characterise the velocity-dependent frictional behaviour. Mean values of the peak coefficient of friction vary from 0.46 for clay-dominated samples (53 % clay, 46 % silt, 1 %) sand up to 0.76 for coarse-grained sediments (26 % clay, 57 % silt, 17 % sand). The majority of the sediments tested show velocity strengthening regardless of the grain size distribution. For clayey sediments the peak and residual cohesive strength increases with increasing normal stress, with values from 1.3 to 10.6 kPa and up to 25 % of all strength supported by cohesive forces in the shallowmost samples. A pseudo-static slope stability analysis reveals that the different lithologies (even clay-rich material with clay content >=50 %) tested are stable up to slope angles <26° under quasi-drained conditions.