Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Baseline Survey of Northern Ireland Public Awareness of Cancer Signs and Symptoms

In May 2014, the Public Health Agency (the PHA) commissioned Social Market Research (www.socialmarketresearch.co.uk) to undertake a baseline survey on public awareness of the signs and symptoms of cancer. The survey is based on face-to-face interviews with a representative sample of 1,000 adults plus an additional booster sample (n=410) of men and women aged 50+.

Innovación, financiación y mercados financieros : análisis de las relaciones entre inversión en I+D, estructura de capital y señalización contable

Aquest treball té com a objectiu determinar l'existència de restriccions en el finançament de projectes empresarials de recerca i desenvolupament (R+D) i analitzar-ne les causes. Els resultats de la investigació mostren els fets següents: en primer lloc, hi ha restriccions financeres per a la realització d'inversions en R+D i es manifesten en la necessitat de les empreses de recórrer a recursos interns i a fons aliens a curt termini; en segon lloc, les restriccions esmentades fonamentalment sorgeixen a causa de dos factors, el desequilibri entre les característiques econòmiques de les inversions d'R+D i el comportament dels agents finançadors en els mercats de capitals, i l'existència d'asimetries d'informació entre agents gestors i finançadors; finalment, en tercer lloc, la formulació per part de les empreses de més informació comptable sobre l'R+D desenvolupada comporta la millora de la valoració de l'empresa en els mercats financers i, per tant, l'assignació de fons als processos d'innovació.

OER in Portugal as agent of curriculum innovation and technological change. Inducing practices of "new" teaching standards

This research project aimed the following goal: promote the creation, use and disclosure of OER in a Group of Schools, involving schools and teachers from different learning levels, expecting to test and validate the use of OER, in a learning-teaching model towards curricular innovation. Defining as a starting point different subjects and teachers from distinct academic areas, we have implemented a set of activities leading to the creation of OER supported, when possible, in FLOSS tools. We adopted an action research methodology with a dual purpose: to act within a community of teachers and students, while increasing at the same time their knowledge, as well as the researcher's. The activity was developed cooperatively in order to process a certain reality of the teaching-learning process, through practical/reflective action towards it and inducing its implementation by others in the Portuguese School System, based on the production and sharing OER.

Determinants of non- response to a second assessment of lifestyle factors and body weight in the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND This paper discusses whether baseline demographic, socio-economic, health variables, length of follow-up and method of contacting the participants predict non-response to the invitation for a second assessment of lifestyle factors and body weight in the European multi-center EPIC-PANACEA study. METHODS Over 500.000 participants from several centers in ten European countries recruited between 1992 and 2000 were contacted 2-11 years later to update data on lifestyle and body weight. Length of follow-up as well as the method of approaching differed between the collaborating study centers. Non-responders were compared with responders using multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS Overall response for the second assessment was high (81.6%). Compared to postal surveys, centers where the participants completed the questionnaire by phone attained a higher response. Response was also high in centers with a short follow-up period. Non-response was higher in participants who were male (odds ratio 1.09 (confidence interval 1.07; 1.11), aged under 40 years (1.96 (1.90; 2.02), living alone (1.40 (1.37; 1.43), less educated (1.35 (1.12; 1.19), of poorer health (1.33 (1.27; 1.39), reporting an unhealthy lifestyle and who had either a low (<18.5 kg/m2, 1.16 (1.09; 1.23)) or a high BMI (>25, 1.08 (1.06; 1.10); especially ≥30 kg/m2, 1.26 (1.23; 1.29)). CONCLUSIONS Cohort studies may enhance cohort maintenance by paying particular attention to the subgroups that are most unlikely to respond and by an active recruitment strategy using telephone interviews.

Immigració, cohesió social i convivéncia al espai públic

L'assentament de població immigrada ha repercutit en el paisatge social de les ciutats que s'ha diversificat i s’ha tornat més complex, la qual cosa ha originat profunds canvis demogràfics i socioeconòmics. L'objectiu principal de aquesta investigació és analitzar la convivència a l'espai públic entre població autòctona i migrant, i elaborar possibles propostes d'actuació. L'espai públic és un espai fonamental per la socialització i la convivència entre diferents grups de població, però també és un espai de conflicte. Per analitzar aquesta relació entre convivència i espai públic s'ha estudiat la quotidianitat de la població immigrada als espais públics i la interacció a l'espai físic entre població autòctona i immigrada a través del treball de camp a tres barris de tres municipis de la província de Barcelona. La metodologia de la recerca s'ha concretat a través de l'estudi de casos, utilitzant en cadascun d'ells diferents tècniques que pertanyen a metodologies qualitatives i quantitatives. A través del treball de camp s'ha determinat que els usos que fa la població immigrant de l'espai públic són molt variats: socialització, feina, cura, oci, pràctica d'esports, celebracions i, en alguns casos, dormir, entre d’altres. També s'ha pogut establir una relació entre la intensitat i el tipus d'ús que es fa de l'espai públic i diferents variables com gènere, origen o tipus de projecte migratori. El projecte ha permès identificar elements que poden millorar la convivència en l'espai públic i a partir d'aquí s'han generat algunes línies d'actuació.

Avaliação de necessidades de formação em professores do ensino secundário em Cabo Verde

II Resumo Cabo Verde é um país que tem acompanhado as grandes mudanças políticas, sociais, económicas e educativas, atribuindo um papel preponderante aos professores na educação/formação dos indivíduos. Neste sentido a formação inicial não pode constituir um acto “acabado” que não tem em linha de conta as mudanças que decorrem no seu seio. A formação contínua aparece com um processo de construção da mudança, apoiado no desenvolvimento profissional dos professores. A avaliação de necessidade de formação em professores do ensino secundário em Cabo Verde é o tema do trabalho de investigação, realizado nas escolas secundárias da ilha de Santo Antão, em Cabo Verde, no sentido de identificar questões problemáticas na formação inicial e contínua de professores e as suas implicações na qualidade educativa. Neste sentido, ao longo de 5 capítulos apresentamos os pontos desta investigação, estruturados de forma a se poder acompanhar a sua evolução. No 1º capítulo, apresenta-se a Problemática de Investigação, que constitui a parte inicial da dissertação, pela exposição do quadro conceptual do ensino secundário em Cabo Verde através da contextualização e identificação do problema, da formulação dos objectivos e questões de investigação. No 2º capítulo faz-se o percurso histórico/educativo de Cabo Verde, desde a época colonial, passando pela educação após a independência em 1975, à constituição da Lei de Bases do Sistema Educativo e a Reforma Educativa dos anos 90. No 3º capítulo, intitulado “A Formação Inicial e Continua de Professores em Cabo Verde”, é abordado o enquadramento teórico desta investigação, com referência à contextualização geral da formação e modelos de formação de professores, evoluindo para a realidade Cabo-verdiana, tendo em consideração as instituições de formação de professores e o contexto actual do ensino secundário em Cabo Verde. No 4º capítulo faz-se a apresentação da Metodologia de Investigação, adoptada num estudo extensivo, do qual abordamos a natureza da investigação e caracterizamos a amostra e respondentes. Como técnicas de recolha de dados, são utilizados: o inquérito por questionário (n=77), a professores do ensino secundário e o inquérito por entrevista (n=9), aos directores das escolas secundárias da ilha de Santo Antão e a formadores de professores em São Vicente. Como técnica de análise de dados, são utilizados diversos procedimentos estatísticos e a análise de conteúdo. O 5º capítulo corresponde a apresentação e discussão dos resultados da investigação desses três públicos analisados. Para finalizar, apresenta-se uma conclusão que corresponde a síntese dos resultados obtidos, propostas de sugestões de melhoria e limitações do estudo. Cabo Verde is a country willing to follow the great political, social, economic and educational changes. This important role have attributed to teachers to educate and train individuals. In this sense the initial training cannot be considered as a “finished” task without taking into consideration those changes. The in service training appears as a scientific and pedagogic autonomization towards the growing change. The Evaluation of Secondary School teacher training Needs in Cabo Verde constitutes an investigation work, carried out in Santo Antão's island Secondary schools, aiming to identify problems in initial and continuous teachers' training and their implications in the educational quality. In this sense, along five chapters we will present the points of this investigation, structured to facilitate the understanding of its evolution. In the first chapter we present the Problem of Investigation which is an introductory part of the dissertation, the conceptual theory of the Cabo Verde secondary education through the contextualization and identification of the problem, the formulation of the objectives and investigation issues. In the second chapter we present the Cabo Verde historical/educational background, from the colonial time, going through after independence in 1975, to the constitution of the Basic Educational Law of the System and the nineties Educational Reform. In the third chapter entitled “The Initial and in-service Teacher´s Training in Cabo Verde” brings the theoretical framework of this investigation, where we present a general contextualization of teachers' training and models, developed from the reality of Cabo Verde. In this regard we will consider the teachers' training institutions and the current secondary education context in Cabo Verde. In the fourth chapter we present the Research Methodology, adopted in an extensive study, of which we draw the nature of the investigation and we characterized the sample. We carried out questionnaire (n=77) to teachers, interviews (n=9) to headmasters from Santo Antão's island secondary schools and trainers from São Vicente. We used statistical analyses and content analyses as data analyse techniques. The fifth chapter deals with presentation the discussion of results of those three analyzed publics' investigation. Finally, we present a summary of the obtained results, suggestions for improvement and limitations of study.

Free entry does not imply zero profits

Traditional economic wisdom says that free entry in a market will drive profits down to zero. This conclusion is usually drawn under the assumption of perfect information. We assumethat a priori there exists imperfect information about theprofitability of the market, but that potential entrants maylearn the demand curve perfectly at negligible cost byengaging in market research. Even if in equilibrium firmslearn the demand perfectly, profits may be strictly positivebecause of insufficient entry. The mere fact that it will notbecome common knowledge that every entrant has perfectinformation about demand causes this surprising result. Belief means doubt. Knowing means certainty. Introduction to the Kabalah.

Driver scheduling problem modelling

The Drivers Scheduling Problem (DSP) consists of selecting a set of duties for vehicle drivers, for example buses, trains, plane or boat drivers or pilots, for the transportation of passengers or goods. This is a complex problem because it involves several constraints related to labour and company rules and can also present different evaluation criteria and objectives. Being able to develop an adequate model for this problem that can represent the real problem as close as possible is an important research area.The main objective of this research work is to present new mathematical models to the DSP problem that represent all the complexity of the drivers scheduling problem, and also demonstrate that the solutions of these models can be easily implemented in real situations. This issue has been recognized by several authors and as important problem in Public Transportation. The most well-known and general formulation for the DSP is a Set Partition/Set Covering Model (SPP/SCP). However, to a large extend these models simplify some of the specific business aspects and issues of real problems. This makes it difficult to use these models as automatic planning systems because the schedules obtained must be modified manually to be implemented in real situations. Based on extensive passenger transportation experience in bus companies in Portugal, we propose new alternative models to formulate the DSP problem. These models are also based on Set Partitioning/Covering Models; however, they take into account the bus operator issues and the perspective opinions and environment of the user.We follow the steps of the Operations Research Methodology which consist of: Identify the Problem; Understand the System; Formulate a Mathematical Model; Verify the Model; Select the Best Alternative; Present the Results of theAnalysis and Implement and Evaluate. All the processes are done with close participation and involvement of the final users from different transportation companies. The planner s opinion and main criticisms are used to improve the proposed model in a continuous enrichment process. The final objective is to have a model that can be incorporated into an information system to be used as an automatic tool to produce driver schedules. Therefore, the criteria for evaluating the models is the capacity to generate real and useful schedules that can be implemented without many manual adjustments or modifications. We have considered the following as measures of the quality of the model: simplicity, solution quality and applicability. We tested the alternative models with a set of real data obtained from several different transportation companies and analyzed the optimal schedules obtained with respect to the applicability of the solution to the real situation. To do this, the schedules were analyzed by the planners to determine their quality and applicability. The main result of this work is the proposition of new mathematical models for the DSP that better represent the realities of the passenger transportation operators and lead to better schedules that can be implemented directly in real situations.

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

Implementing TURF analysis through binary linear programming

This paper introduces the approach of using Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency analysis (TURF) to design a product line through a binary linear programming model. This improves the efficiency of the search for the solution to the problem compared to the algorithms that have been used to date. The results obtained through our exact algorithm are presented, and this method shows to be extremely efficient both in obtaining optimal solutions and in computing time for very large instances of the problem at hand. Furthermore, the proposed technique enables the model to be improved in order to overcome the main drawbacks presented by TURF analysis in practice.

Relatório Final Jogos-Simulação De Marketing – Power Computer

This school in the course of Marketing Business Management and specifically Entrepr This school in the course of Marketing Business Management and specifically Entrepreneurship in the discipline of Simulation - Games Marketing year was accordingly for the creation of a company in the computer business in business online simulator called Marketplace, in order to put into practice all the theoretical knowledge acquired during all previous semesters. This platform we were confronted with decisions in eight quarters corresponding 4 every year , in order to encourage learning in a practical way, a virtual and dynamic environment. Every quarter acareados with well organized tasks taking as a reference point defined strategies such as market research analysis, branding , store management after its creation , development of the policy of the 4Ps , identifying opportunities , monitoring of finances and invest heavily . All quarters were subjected decisions and are then given the results , such as: market performance , financial performance, investments in the future , the "health" of the company 's marketing efficiency then analyzed by our company , teaching and also by competition Balanced Scorecard ie , semi-annual and cumulative . For the start of activities it was awarded the 1st year a total of 2,000,000, corresponding to 500,000 out of 4 first quarter , and 5,000,000 in the fifth quarter in a total of 7,000,000 . The capital invested was used to buy market research, opening sales offices , create brands , contract sales force , advertise products created and perform activity R & D in order to make a profit and become self- sufficient to guarantee the payment of principal invested to headquarters ( Corporate Headquarters ) .

Processus et fonctions psychiques de l'écriture : de la création littéraire au groupe à médiation

Ce travail porte sur l'étude des processus et fonctions psychiques de la création littéraire et de l'écriture dans une perspective psychanalytique, à partir d'une méthodologie de recherche qualitative exploratoire. Un premier volet de la recherche s'attache à étudier les processus et fonctions psychiques dans la création littéraire à partir de six entretiens semi-structurés avec des écrivains romands publiés. Les entretiens sont analysés en profondeur à partir de la méthodologie qualitative Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (Smith, Flowers & Larkin, 2009). Un second volet de la recherche étudie les processus et fonctions psychiques de l'écriture dans un atelier de groupe à médiation écriture prenant place dans un Centre de Jour pour adultes, à partir de l'élaboration de deux cas. L'articulation des analyses de ces expériences d'écriture dans les deux contextes étudiés permet de mettre en évidence des enjeux de continuité/discontinuité dans le passage du premier mouvement créateur de l'écriture - le « miroir-papier » - vers le mouvement de la publication/lecture - le « miroir-lecteur ». Ces enjeux de partage invitent à penser le travail créateur de l'écriture à partir de la notion de « Moi- peau » (Anzieu, 1995) et à préciser cinq fonctions psychiques de l'écriture : transformation ; protection ; échange ; réassurance narcissique ; partage. Un accent particulier est porté sur la fonction de protection, dans la tension qu'elle entretient avec celle de transformation, au travers de la mise en évidence de six formes d'enveloppes d'écriture protectrice. Finalement, les analyses mettent en évidence la manière dont cette tension entre un investissement défensif de l'écriture et un investissement de transformation se déploie par des voies singulières en vue d'une tentative de résolution du conflit subjectif interne entre les exigences du « public intérieur » (De M'Uzan, 1964) et la rencontre avec l'objet réel. Ces pistes d'analyses permettent de préciser les modalités de contribution de l'écriture aux processus de symbolisation et d'enrichir la pratique du champ des médiations thérapeutiques de repères d'appréciation clinique. - Based on an exploratory qualitative research methodology, this work focuses on the psychical processes and functions of literary creation and writing from a psychoanalytic perspective. The first part of the research investigates psychical processes and functions in creative writing through the analysis of six semi-structured interviews with published Swiss writers. The interviews are analyzed according to the exploratory qualitative methodology Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (Smith, Flowers & Larkin, 2009). The second area of research examines the processes of writing in the context of an art-therapy writing group that took place in an adult day center. The observations lead to the elaboration of two case studies. The joint analysis of these writing experiences highlights issues of continuity/discontinuity in passing from the first creative writing movement - the « mirror-paper » - to the final publication/reading of the work - the «mirror-reader». These issues enable us to understand the creative writing processes from the concept of the « skin-ego » (Anzieu, 1995). Five functions of writing are proposed: transformation, protection, exchange, narcissistic reassurance, and sharing. An emphasis on the tension between the protection and the transformation functions is highlighted through the identification of six forms of protective writing psychical envelopes. Finally, the analysis shows how this tension between a defensive and a transformative investment in writing takes place in an attempt to resolve the internal conflict between the « inner audience » (De M'Uzan, 1964) and the encounter with the real object. This study clarifies the way creative writing can contribute to symbolization and can enrich clinical assessment in the field of art-therapy.

"Vinci Cosmetics" Fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos

Contexto: La idea principal es la creación de una empresa para la fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos de alta gama. A pesar del contexto de crisis económica en el que estamos envueltos estos últimos años y del que no parece que acabamos de salir, el sector de la cosmética está resistiendo la situación de forma envidiable. De la crisis, como dicen los economistas, “se saldrá y se volverá, todo es cíclico” y viendo la fortaleza que éste sector está mostrando unido a la necesidad de que nuestra economía abandone sectores muy deteriorados y sin una previsión positiva de futuro, la cosmética se postula con un futuro prometedor dentro del contexto económico español y europeo. “Vinci Cosmetics” es el nombre inicialmente pensado para que la nueva compañía inicie su andadura. Nombre con tintes latinos de la lejana época del imperio romano como homenaje a la rica herencia histórica de la ciudad del autor del proyecto - Tarragona. La cultura por cuidarse y sentirse bien, muy arraigada en la mentalidad latina y mediterránea, es un factor cultural clave para el desarrollo y futura evolución de esta industria. El slogan de la empresa, “Dieta Mediterránea para tu piel”, clarifica en buena medida la idea a desarrollar y los objetivos pretendidos por la estrategia empresarial. Objetivos: El objetivo esencial del TFC es elaborar un estudio detallado para la creación de una empresa de fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos de alta gama que abarque el management y la gestión por procesos de la empresa, la función de marketing, el tipo de operaciones y procesos a realizar, la gestión del factor humano y el presupuesto necesario para cubrir este ambicioso proyecto. En detalle, un completo plan de empresa que marque las directrices de la organización industrial que se pretende crear compuesto a su vez por cinco planes: plan de gerencia, plan de marketing, plan de operaciones, plan de recursos humanos y plan económico – financiero. Procedimientos: El proyecto tiene un alto componente de estudio de mercados y de marketing pero pretende también abarcar el management, los procesos de operación, el factor humano y el aspecto económico y financiero de las inversiones y presupuesto necesario. El estudio inicial centrará su esfuerzo en un análisis del mercado de la península ibérica, y, en función del avance y del progreso esperado por la empresa, la compañía podría extender su campo de acción a Europa aunque no antes de un medio plazo. “Vinci Cosmetics” ha adoptado referenciales de sistemas de gestión integrados en toda la organización. Así tenemos principalmente, por un lado, la norma internacional ISO 9001:2008 y, por otro, el Modelo EFQM de Excelencia en la gestión; ambos plasmados a partir de un enfoque basado en procesos que nos garantiza el control continuo y la gestión excelente. Conclusiones: Tras evaluar la situación actual del mercado de la cosmética, las previsiones futuras de éste y las necesidades que una organización industrial necesita, se puede crear - con plenas garantías de éxito como organización empresarial y desde el punto de vista económico - una empresa de cosméticos de alta gama para cubrir las necesidades de una parte de mercado que lo requiere.

Tutkimusmetodologia ja sen kehittäminen opettajan käyttöteorian ja opetuksen välisen suhteen tutkimuksessa

Summary: Research methodology and its development in the study of the relationship between a teacher's practical theory and teaching practices