Option pricing in market models driven by telegraph processes with jumps

Esta tesis está dividida en dos partes: en la primera parte se presentan y estudian los procesos telegráficos, los procesos de Poisson con compensador telegráfico y los procesos telegráficos con saltos. El estudio presentado en esta primera parte incluye el cálculo de las distribuciones de cada proceso, las medias y varianzas, así como las funciones generadoras de momentos entre otras propiedades. Utilizando estas propiedades en la segunda parte se estudian los modelos de valoración de opciones basados en procesos telegráficos con saltos. En esta parte se da una descripción de cómo calcular las medidas neutrales al riesgo, se encuentra la condición de no arbitraje en este tipo de modelos y por último se calcula el precio de las opciones Europeas de compra y venta.

Prevalencia de enfermedad celiaca en Latinoamérica: revisión sistemática de la literatura y meta-análisis

Introducción: La enfermedad celiaca (EC) es una enfermedad autoinmune (EA) intestinal desencadenada por la ingesta de gluten. Por la falta de información de la presencia de EC en Latinoamérica (LA), nosotros investigamos la prevalencia de la enfermedad en esta región utilizando una revisión sistemática de la literatura y un meta-análisis. Métodos y resultados: Este trabajo fue realizado en dos fases: La primera, fue un estudio de corte transversal de 300 individuos Colombianos. La segunda, fue una revisión sistemática y una meta-regresión siguiendo las guías PRSIMA. Nuestros resultados ponen de manifiesto una falta de anti-transglutaminasa tisular (tTG) e IgA anti-endomisio (EMA) en la población Colombiana. En la revisión sistemática, 72 artículos cumplían con los criterios de selección, la prevalencia estimada de EC en LA fue de 0,46% a 0,64%, mientras que la prevalencia en familiares de primer grado fue de 5,5 a 5,6%, y en los pacientes con diabetes mellitus tipo 1 fue de 4,6% a 8,7% Conclusión: Nuestro estudio muestra que la prevalencia de EC en pacientes sanos de LA es similar a la notificada en la población europea.

Relación de exposición a polvos de carbón, sílice cristalina y neumoconiosis, en trabajadores de minas de socavón, Cundinamarca, 2014.

Objetivo: Determinar el nivel de riesgo de la exposición por fracción respirable a polvo de carbón y sílice cristalina y la prevalencia de neumoconiosis en trabajadores de minas de socavón del departamento de Cundinamarca. Métodos: estudio de corte transversal, en grupos de exposición similar (GES) en las minas seleccionadas, el tamaño muestral fue constituido por 11 empresas y 215 trabajadores en donde se realizó un muestreo ambiental para medir los niveles de polvo de carbón y sílice cristalina. Resultados: La edad promedio del grupo fue de 46±9,5 años y género masculino (97,2%), se encontró una asociación significativa entre polvo de carbón y neumoconiosis (p =0,050) y no fue significativa con exposición a sílice cristalina (p = 0,537). El modelo de regresión logística mostró asociación significativa con la escala de nivel de riesgo de carbón medio (OR=10.4, IC 95%:1.50, 71.41, p=0,02), ajustando con variables significativas como: tamaño de la empresa mediana (OR = 2,67, IC 95%:1.07, 6.66, p=0,04), antigüedad mayor o igual a 30 años (OR = 7,186, IC 95%:2.98, 17.29, p=0,001) y habito tabáquico por más de un año (OR = 4,437, IC 95%:2.06, 9.55, p=0,001) para sílice cristalina no hubo asociación en el modelo multivariado. Conclusión: El riesgo de exposición a carbón de nivel medio está relacionado con la prevalencia de neumoconiosis y otros factores adicionales como tamaño de la empresa mediana, antigüedad mayor o igual a 30 años y habito tabáquico por más de un año para los trabajadores de minería de socavón en Cundinamarca. Para los niveles de sílice cristalina no se encontró asociación significativa.

Parametric pension reform and the intensive margin of labor supply, evidence from Colombia

We analyze the effect of a parametric reform of the fully-funded pension regime in Colombia on the intensive margin of the labor supply. We take advantage of a threshold defined by law in order to identify the causal effect using a regression discontinuity design. We find that a pension system that increases retirement age and the minimum weeks during which workers must contribute to claim pension benefits causes an increase of around 2 hours on the number of weekly worked hours; this corresponds to 4% of the average number of weekly worked hours or around 14% of a standard deviation of weekly worked hours. The effect is robust to different specifications, polynomial orders and sample sizes.

Do more decentralized local governments do better? an evaluation of the 2001 decentralization reform in Colombia

In this paper I evaluate the impact of the 2001 decentralization reform in Colombia. I use data from Colombia's municipalities. I look at the effect of the 2001 reform on enrolment in pre-college schools. While all municipalities received earnmarked national transfers, withthe reform some of then now have more responsabilities to provide education (deeper decen-tralization) than others. Particulary important, the reform entitle the more decentralizedmunicipalities to sign subsidy contracts with private school. Departments (the regional gov-ernments) are entitle to sign this type of contracts for the less decentralized municipalities.Since the rule for municipalities to receive more responsabilities follows and exogenous popu-lation threshold, I can implement Regression Discontinuity Design. Enrolment is measuredthrough two variables: the number of students enroled in public schools and the number of subsidized students enroled in private schools. Results sugest that more decentralized mu-nicipalities subsidize more students in private schools. The difference is significant at all thelevels of pre-college school for the period 2004-2006. In 2005, the difference accounts for20% of enrolment in private schools and 3% of population of school age. Besides, there are not significant differences among municipalities regarding enrolment in public schools.

Racial and spatial interaction for neighborhood dynamics in Chicago

We look at at the empirical validity of Schelling’s models for racial residential segregation applied to the case of Chicago. Most of the empirical literature has focused exclusively the single neighborhood model, also known as the tipping point model and neglected a multineighborhood approach or a unified approach. The multi-neighborhood approach introduced spatial interaction across the neighborhoods, in particular we look at spatial interaction across neighborhoods sharing a border. An initial exploration of the data indicates that spatial contiguity might be relevant to properly analyse the so call tipping phenomena of predominately non-Hispanic white neighborhoods to predominantly minority neighborhoods within a decade. We introduce an econometric model that combines an approach to estimate tipping point using threshold effects and a spatial autoregressive model. The estimation results from the model disputes the existence of a tipping point, that is a discontinuous change in the rate of growth of the non-Hispanic white population due to a small increase in the minority share of the neighborhood. In addition we find that racial distance between the neighborhood of interest and it surrounding neighborhoods has an important effect on the dynamics of racial segregation in Chicago.

Sample size requirements for interval estimation of the strengthof association effect sizes in multiple regression analysis

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A comparison of discriminant logistic regression and Item Response Theory Likelihood-Ratio Tests for Differential Item Functioning (IRTLRDIF) in polytomous short tests

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Si3N4 single-crystal nanowires grown from silicon micro- and nanoparticles near the threshold of passive oxidation

A simple and most promising oxide-assisted catalyst-free method is used to prepare silicon nitride nanowires that give rise to high yield in a short time. After a brief analysis of the state of the art, we reveal the crucial role played by the oxygen partial pressure: when oxygen partial pressure is slightly below the threshold of passive oxidation, a high yield inhibiting the formation of any silica layer covering the nanowires occurs and thanks to the synthesis temperature one can control nanowire dimensions

A comparison of physical measurements of pure-tones, third-octave bands of noise and third-octave bands of speech to subjective judgments of audibility threshold, MCL and UCL for three normally hearing listeners

This study investigates the relation between physical measurements of pure-tones, third-octave bands of noise and third-octave bands of speech and subjective judgments of auditory threshold, most-comfortable listening level (MCL) and uncomfortable-listening level (UCL) for three normally hearing listeners.

The reliability and validity of monitored connected discourse as a test of the threshold of intelligibility

This paper discusses a study undertaken to determine whether a normal hearing person or hearing impaired person can reliably select a threshold of intelligibility and if so, whether this can be considered a valid measurement.

A study of threshold and loudness summation in listeners with sensorineural hearing impairments

This paper investigates loudness summation in a group of listeners with moderate to severe hearing losses and the applicability of this information to hearing aid fittings.

Threshold adaptation, temporal integration and frequency discrimination-learning in hearing impaired children

This paper is a review of a study to evaluate the usefulness of a laboratory approach to auditory training with hearing impaired children.

A study of threshold and loudness summation in normal-hearing listeners

This paper presents some normative data on the relation between the perceived loudness of third-octave bands of noise and that of broad-band noise. The study used normally-hearing listeners and was used as a control study for a parallel study done with hearing impaired listeners.