Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Cultural events as tourism supply in coastal Catalan resorts

During the last three decades, the number of tourism events has been growing in Catalan coastal resorts because of the recover of Catalan cultural traditions, festivals and folklore, and also because of tourism growth. Catalan tourism resorts use events as catalysers for new supply and as a mean to differentiate and singularize themselves from their competitors. The tourism potential of cultural events is undeniable but there are some problems that prevent a more effective impact as economic and regional development agents. This paper reflects some discussions and conclusions obtained from the analysis of 264 valid responses of a survey made to different Catalan event organizers in 2008 and 2009. We describe and characterize cultural event supply in coastal resorts in order to study the events tourism importance, their capacity to generate and spread economic development, and their managerial model. The analysis is made in a geographical basis, comparing the results of the territorial organization of events of the city of Barcelona, coastal and inland municipalities. Finally some considerations about event regional tourism policy and tourism development are discussed.

Legal Issues for FOSS-based Supply Chain Management ¿ Black Duck Software

Open source is typically outside of normal commercial software procurement processes.The Challenges.Increasingly diverse and distributed set of development resources.Little/no visibility into the origins of the software.Supply Chain Comparison: Hardware vs Software.Open source has revolutionized the mobile and device landscape, other industries will follow.Supply chain management techniques from hardware are useful for managing software.SPDX A standard format for communicating a software Bill of Materials across the supply chain.Effective management and control requires training, tools, processes and standards.

Power supply noise and logic error probability

Voltage fluctuations caused by parasitic impedances in the power supply rails of modern ICs are a major concern in nowadays ICs. The voltage fluctuations are spread out to the diverse nodes of the internal sections causing two effects: a degradation of performances mainly impacting gate delays anda noisy contamination of the quiescent levels of the logic that drives the node. Both effects are presented together, in thispaper, showing than both are a cause of errors in modern and future digital circuits. The paper groups both error mechanismsand shows how the global error rate is related with the voltage deviation and the period of the clock of the digital system.

Error probability in synchronous digital circuits due to power supply noise

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model the problem of power supply voltage fluctuations. Error probability calculations are shown for some 90-nm technology digital circuits.The analysis here considered gives the timing violation error probability as a new design quality factor in front of conventional techniques that assume the full perfection of the circuit. The evaluation of the error bound can be useful for new design paradigms where retry and self-recoveringtechniques are being applied to the design of high performance processors. The method here described allows to evaluate the performance of these techniques by means of calculating the expected error probability in terms of power supply distribution quality.

Voltage fluctuations in IC power supply distribution

The supply voltage decrease and powerconsumption increase of modern ICs made the requirements for low voltage fluctuation caused by packaging and on-chip parasitic impedances more difficult to achieve. Most of the research works on the area assume that all the nodes of the chip are fed at thesame voltage, in such a way that the main cause of disturbance or fluctuation is the parasitic impedance of packaging. In the paper an approach to analyze the effect of high and fast current demands on the on-chip power supply network. First an approach to model the entire network by considering a homogeneous conductive foil is presented. The modification of the timing parameters of flipflops caused by spatial voltage drops through the IC surface are also investigated.

Item master management in the engineer-to-order supply chain

Diplomityöntavoitteena on tutkia, kuinka nimiketiedon hallinnalla voidaan parantaa kustannustehokkuutta projektiohjautuvassa toimitusketjussa. Työn kohdeyritys on Konecranes Oyj:n tytäryhtiö Konecranes Heavy Lifting Oy. Nimiketiedon hallinta liittyy läheisesti tuotetiedon hallintaan. Teoriaosassa käsitellään toimitusketjuympäristön tekijöitä, modulaarisuuden ja asiakaskohtaisuuden ongelmallisuutta sekä informaatiovirran vaikutuksia eri toiminnoissa. Yritysosassa vertaillaan konsernitason kahta liiketoiminta-aluetta strategiavalintojen, tuotteiden modulaarisuuden sekä tilaus-toimitusprosessissa liikkuvan nimikeinformaation perusteella. Diplomityön tuloksena annetaan suuntaviivat; nimikemassan eheytykseen, strategisten nimikkeiden tunnistamiseen ja määrittämiseen, nimikkeiden hallintaan sekä master-datan sijoittamiseen tietojärjestelmäympäristöön.

Developing Service Promise Concept Based on Supply Chain

Diplomityön tavoitteena on analysoida ja kehittää palvelulupauskonseptia toimitusketjuun perustuen Halton Oy:ssä. Työ toteutettiin, koska asiakaslähtöinen liiketoimintatapa on voimakkaasti valtaamassa alaa tuote- ja tuotantopainotteiselta toimintatavalta. Tuotteiden erinomaisuus koetaan markkinoilla yhä useammin itsestään selvyytenä. Prosessien tehokas hallitseminen ja asiakkaan kokeman lisäarvon muodostaminen ovat muodostuneet ratkaisevimmaksi kilpailuedun luojaksi. Toimitusketjun hallinnalla ja sähköisellä kaupankäynnillä on tärkeä rooli tämän kilpailuedun muodostumisessa.Diplomityö käsittelee uuden palvelulupauskonseptin tarjoamia etuja Halton Oy:lle. Työssä pureudutaan toimitusketjun ja sähköisen kaupankäynnin integraatiomahdollisuuksiin. Tarkoituksena on selvittää parhaat mahdolliset kriteerit Haltonin palvelulupauskonseptilleja luoda menetelmät yrityksen materiaalivirtojen sekä uuden konseptin analysoinnille ja kehittämiselle jatkossa.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

Effect of nitrogen and phosphorus supply on growth, chlorophyll content and tissue composition of the macroalga Chaetomorpha linum (O.F. Mull), Kutz, in a Mediterranean Coastal Lagoon

The effect of dissolved nutrients on growth, nutrient content and uptake rates of Chaetomorpha linum in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon (Tancada, Ebro delta, NE Spain) was studied in laboratory experiments. Water was enriched with distinct forms of nitrogen, such as nitrate or ammonium and phosphorus. Enrichment with N, P or with both nutrients resulted in a significant increase in the tissue content of these nutrients. N-enrichment was followed by an increase in chlorophyll content after 4 days of treatment, although the difference was only significant when nitrate was added without P. P-enrichment had no significant effect on chlorophyll content. In all the treatments an increase in biomass was obseved after 10 days. This increase was higher in the N+P treatments. In all the treatments the uptake rate was significantly higher when nutrients were added than in control jars. The uptake rate of N, as ammonium, and P were significantly higher when they were added alone while that of N as nitrate was higher in the N+P treatment. In the P-enriched cultures, the final P-content of macroalgal tissues was ten-fold that of the initial tissue concentrations, thereby indicating luxury P-uptake. Moreover, at the end of the incubation the N:P ratio increased to 80, showing that P rather than N was the limiting factor for C. linum in the Tancada lagoon. The relatively high availability of N is related to the N inputs from rice fields that surround the lagoon and to P binding in sediments.

Kansainvälisen suunnitteluprojektin malliproseduuri ja riskit - Case Viro

Useissa suomalaisissa rakennus- tai suunnitteluyrityksissä on selkeät tavoitteet ja odotukset liiketoiminnan kasvulle. Kasvun mahdollisuudet kotimarkkinoilla ovat rajalliset. Liiketoiminnan kasvua on haettava kotimarkkinoiden ulkopuolelta.Liiketoiminnan kasvua haettaessa alan yritykset ovat nopeasti kansainvälistyneet ja etabloituneet lähialueille. Erityisesti etabloitumista on tapahtunut Baltiaan, Viroon. Heräte tämän työn tekemiseen syntyi case-yrityksentoimenpiteistä kansainväistymisessä ja etabloitumisen aiheuttamasta oletettua suuremmasta kustannusten kehittymisestä. Tutkimuksella ja toimenpiteillä tuetaan etabloitumiskehitystä ja parannetaan liiketoimintaprojektin kustannustehokkuutta. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli case-yrityksen toimitusprosessin kuvaaminen, suositeltavan toimitusmallin rakentaminen liiketoimintaprojektille ja kohdemaan riskien kuvaaminen projektiriskikartalle. Kansainvälisen projektiliiketoiminnan erityispiirteitä ovat toimintaympäristön ja asiakkaiden erilaisuus, erilaiset pelisäännöt ja tavat toimia, erilainen kulttuuri ja arvot, tuntematon markkinoiden kysyntä- ja tarjontatilanne. Kansainvälisessä projektiliiketoiminnassa joudumme sopeutumaan ja sopeuttamaan totuttua toimintaamme toisenlaisiin olosuhteisiin. Toisenlaisista olosuhteista johtuen kotimarkkinoille ja kotimaisiin asiakastoimituksiin laadittuun toimintajärjestelmään kuvattu prosessimalli ei sellaisenaan ole toimiva. Samanaikaisesti riskikartta muodostuu kohdemaasta johtuen hyvin erilaiseksi. Tutkimuksen lähtökohta oli toisenlaisesta markkinasta, valituista toimitusprojekteista ja kokemuksesta oppiminen. Tutkimuksen tuloksena rakentui liiketoimintaprojektimalli, joka on selkeästivaiheistettu, roolitettu ja vastuutettu. Lisäksi toisenlaisista markkinoista ja projektimallista johtuen kuvattiin kohdemaan projektiriskikartta. Tutkimuksessa kuvattu liiketoimintaprojektimalli ja kohdemaan mukainen projektiriskikartta toimivat yrityksen seuraavana kehitysaskeleena toiminnan vakauttamisessa. Henkilöstön roolia ja kumppanuuksia tulee kuitenkin jatkossa tarkastella. Työn tuloksena syntyi yksittäisen yrityksen liiketoimintaprojektimallin projektiosien ja roolien kuvaus sekä riskikartta. Työn tuloksen arvioidaan selkeyttävän yrityksen liiketoimintaa ja osaltaan varmistavan yrityksen kansainvälisen liiketoiminnan tavoitteiden saavuttamista.

In conditions of limited chromophore supply rods entrap 11-cis-retinal leading to loss of cone function and cell death.

RPE65 is a retinoid isomerase required for the production of 11-cis-retinal, the chromophore of both cone and rod visual pigments. We recently established an R91W knock-in mouse strain as homologous animal model for patients afflicted by this mutation in RPE65. These mice have impaired vision and can only synthesize minute amounts of 11-cis-retinal. Here, we investigated the consequences of this chromophore insufficiency on cone function and pathophysiology. We found that the R91W mutation caused cone opsin mislocalization and progressive geographic cone atrophy. Remnant visual function was mostly mediated by rods. Ablation of rod opsin corrected the localization of cone opsin and improved cone retinal function. Thus, our analyses indicate that under conditions of limited chromophore supply rods and cones compete for 11-cis-retinal that derives from regeneration pathway(s) which are reliant on RPE65. Due to their higher number and the instability of cone opsin, rods are privileged under this condition while cones suffer chromophore deficiency and degenerate. These findings reinforce the notion that in patients any effective gene therapy with RPE65 needs to target the cone-rich macula directly to locally restore the cones' chromophore supply outside the reach of rods.