Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species' growth rate during migration. Mark-recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21 degrees S-34.00 degrees S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark-recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by -0.0236 and -0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Size-dependent natural mortality of juvenile banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Natural mortality of marine invertebrates is often very high in the early life history stages and decreases in later stages. The possible size-dependent mortality of juvenile banana prawns, P. merguiensis (2-15 mm carapace length) in the Gulf of Carpentaria was investigated. The analysis was based on the data collected at 2-weekly intervals by beam trawls at four sites over a period of six years (between September 1986 and March 1992). It was assumed that mortality was a parametric function of size, rather than a constant. Another complication in estimating mortality for juvenile banana prawns is that a significant proportion of the population emigrates from the study area each year. This effect was accounted for by incorporating the size-frequency pattern of the emigrants in the analysis. Both the extra parameter in the model required to describe the size dependence of mortality, and that used to account for emigration were found to be significantly different from zero, and the instantaneous mortality rate declined from 0.89 week(-1) for 2 mm prawns to 0.02 week(-1) for 15 mm prawns.

Recovery and succession in a multi-species tropical seagrass meadow following experimental disturbance: the role of sexual and asexual reproduction

Recolonisation and succession in a multi-species tropical seagrass meadow was examined by creating gaps (50×50 cm) in the meadow and manipulating the supply of sexual and asexual propagules. Measurements of leaf shoot density and estimates of above-ground biomass were conducted monthly to measure recovery of gaps between September 1995 and November 1997. Measurements of the seeds stored in the sediment (seed bank) and horizontal rhizome growth of colonising species were also conducted to determine their role in the recovery process. Asexual colonisation through horizontal rhizome growth from the surrounding meadow was the main mechanism for colonisation of gaps created in the meadow. The seed bank played no role in recolonisation of cleared plots. Total shoot density and above-ground biomass (all species pooled) of cleared plots recovered asexually to the level of the undisturbed controls in 10 and 7 months, respectively. There was some sexual recruitment into cleared plots where asexual colonisation was prevented but seagrass abundance (shoot density and biomass) did not reach the level of unmanipulated controls. Seagrass species did not appear to form seed banks despite some species being capable of producing long-lived seeds. The species composition of cleared plots remained different to the undisturbed controls throughout the 26-month experiment. Syringodium isoetifolium was a rapid asexual coloniser of disturbed plots and remained at higher abundances than in the control treatments for the duration of the study. S. isoetifolium had the fastest horizontal rhizome growth of species asexually colonising cleared plots (6.9 mm day−1). Halophila ovalis was the most successful sexual coloniser but was displaced by asexually colonising species. H. ovalis was the only species observed to produce fruits during the study. Small disturbances in the meadow led to long-term (>2 years) changes in community composition. This study demonstrated that succession in tropical seagrass communities was not a deterministic process. Variations in recovery observed for different tropical seagrass communities highlighted the importance of understanding life history characteristics of species within individual communities to effectively predict their response to disturbance. A reproductive strategy involving clonal growth and production of long-lived, locally dispersed seeds is suggested which may provide an evolutionary advantage to plants growing in tropical environments subject to temporally unpredictable major disturbances such as cyclones

Pronounced genetic population structure in a potentially vagile fish species (Pristipomoides multidens, Teleostei; Perciformes; Lutjanidae) from the East Indies triangle

The East Indies triangle, bordered by the Phillipines, Malay Peninsula and New Guinea, has a high level of tropical marine species biodiversity. Pristipomoides multidens is a large, long-lived, fecund snapper species that is distributed throughout the East Indies and Indo-Pacific. Samples were analysed from central and eastern Indonesia and northern Australia to test for genetic discontinuities in population structure. Fish (n = 377) were collected from the Indonesian islands of Bali, Sumbawa, Flores, West Timor, Tanimbar and Tual along with 131 fish from two northern Australian locations (Arafura and Timor Seas) from a previous study. Genetic variation in the control region of the mitochondrial genome was assayed using restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing. Haplotype diversity was high (0.67-0.82), as was intraspecific sequence divergence (range 0-5.8%). FST between pairs of populations ranged from 0 to 0.2753. Genetic subdivision was apparent on a small spatial scale; FST was 0.16 over 191 km (Bali/Sumbawa) and 0.17 over 491 km (Bali/Flores). Constraints to dispersal that contribute to, and maintain, the observed degree of genetic subdivision are experienced presumably by all life history stages of this tropical marine finfish. The constraints may include (1) little or no movement of eggs or larvae, (2) little or no home range or migratory movement of adults and (3) loss of larval cohorts due to transport of larvae away from suitable habitat by prevailing currents

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Spatio-temporal patterns in maturation of the chokka squid (Loligo vulgaris reynaudii) off the coast of South Africa

Knowledge of the temporal and spatial characteristics of chokka squid (Loligo vulgaris reynaudii) biology in South African waters is limited, so the possibility of there being a geographically fragmented stock was examined by investigating the distribution of maturity patterns for the species, covering all known spawning areas and using both historical and recent data. Gonadosomatic indices (GSI) varied between year-round consistency and apparent seasonal peaks in both summer and winter; there was no clear spatial pattern. Monthly percentage maturity provided further evidence for two peak reproductive periods each year, although mature squid were present throughout. Sex ratios demonstrated great variability between different areas and life history stages. Male-biased sex ratios were only apparent on the inshore spawning grounds and ranged between 1.118:1 and 4.267:1. Size at sexual maturity was also seasonal, squid maturing smaller in winter/spring than in summer/autumn. Also, squid in the east matured smaller than squid in the west. Although the results from the present study do not provide conclusive evidence of distinct geographic populations, squid likely spawn over a significantly larger area of the Agulhas Bank than previously estimated, and squid on the west coast of South Africa may return to spawn on the western portion of the Agulhas Bank. It remains likely, however, that the east and west coast populations are a single stock and that migration of juveniles to the west coast and their subsequent return as sub-adults is an integral but non-essential and variable part of the life history.

Spatial patterns in the biology of the chokka squid, Loligo reynaudii on the Agulhas Bank, South Africa

Although migration patterns for various life history stages of the chokka squid (Loligo reynaudii) have been previously presented, there has been limited comparison of spatial variation in biological parameters. Based on data from research surveys; size ranges of juveniles, subadults and adults on the Agulhas Bank were estimated and presented spatially. The bulk of the results appear to largely support the current acceptance of the life cycle with an annual pattern of squid hatching in the east, migrating westwards to offshore feeding grounds on the Central and Western Agulhas Bank and the west coast and subsequent return migration to the eastern inshore areas to spawn. The number of adult animals in deeper water, particularly in autumn in the central study area probably represents squid spawning in deeper waters and over a greater area than is currently targeted by the fishery. The distribution of life history stages and different feeding areas does not rule out the possibility that discrete populations of L. reynaudii with different biological characteristics inhabit the western and eastern regions of the Agulhas Bank. In this hypothesis, some mixing of the populations does occur but generally squid from the western Agulhas Bank may occur in smaller numbers, grow more slowly and mature at a larger size. Spawning occurs on the western portion of the Agulhas Bank, and juveniles grow and mature on the west coast and the central Agulhas Bank. Future research requirements include the elucidation of the age structure of chokka squid both spatially and temporally, and a comparison of the statolith chemistry and genetic characterisation between adults from different spawning areas across the Agulhas Bank.

Nuorisokodista maailmalle : Kokemuksia nuorisokodissa elämisestä ja aikuisiässä selviytymisestä

This thesis studies the experiences of women who have lived in a youth home as girls. There are two main themes: 1) experiences of living in a youth home, and 2) experiences of coping as an adult. Data on the first theme is purely subjective; it derives from personal, recalled experiences. Data on the second theme is partly based on experiences and partly on facts about the current life situation of the research participants. A third theme of the thesis is concerned with the question of how the research participants’ placement in a youth home influenced their later life. The thesis contributes valuable knowledge concerning the experiences of young people who have been raised in substitute care, a topic that is rare in the literature. The empirical data of the study consists of responses to an initial inquiry and subsequent interviews. The inquiry was sent to 116 former inhabitants of a youth home. 62 altogether returned the inquiry, and 34 participated in the interview. The purpose of the inquiry was to produce an overview of the life situations of the research participants and to invite them to participate in the interview. In addition, the inquiry sought to produce an overview of how the participants enjoyed living in a youth home and how they saw its significance in terms of their later lives. The interviews concentrated on the research participants’ experiences concerning the processes of getting into a youth home, living there, and coping independently in life afterwards. The most central result relating to the first main theme was that the experiences were both shared and non-shared. Living in a youth home was characterized by six general sentiments: “wonderful, real home”, “new world!”, “safe haven”, “place to live”, “penal institution”, and “nightmare”. These sentiments seemed to be related first and foremost to whether one’s own, individual needs and expectations had been met in the youth home. The strongest and most common needs, as experienced, were the needs for safety, belongingness and respect. On the basis of the experiences, meeting these needs can be considered as the most important task of a youth home. The results relating to the second main theme of the study were examined in two different ways. Comparisons with the general female population (education, situation in working life and financial circumstances) showed that research participants had coped less well. Differences were also found to exist in family structures: nuclear families and single mother families were more unusual among research participants, and stepfamilies more common, than in the general population. More of the participants’ children than of the general population’s lived with somebody other than their parent. However, the experience of coping well was common among research participants, although the beginning of independent living had been generally experienced as difficult: feelings of loneliness, insecurity and restlessness were dominant. Later, a sense of life control developed and strengthened through joining with others (family, work, friends), through accepting one’s own life history and through creating one’s own model of living. As the most significant explanation of their coping, the research participants identified their own (innate) strength and will to cope. The majority of the research participants felt that the youth home had a positive influence on their later lives. Positive influences can be grouped in three “levels”: I) getting out of the home, II) having good experiences and learning useful things, and III) the essential effect on one’s own way of thinking and living. The second level’s influence includes strengthened self-esteem, increased social understanding and new knowledge and skills. Some research participants did not think the youth home had any significance in terms of their later lives, and some thought it had negative significance.

Predicting dispersal and recruitment of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) in Australian tropical rainforests

Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes.

New efforts at biological control of Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

New efforts at biological control of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes. Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

Biology and host range of Ophiomyia camarae Spencer (Diptera: Agromyzidae), a potential biocontrol agent for Lantana spp. (Verbenaceae) in Australia

The life history and host range of the herringbone leaf-mining fly Ophiomyia camarae, a potential biological control agent for Lantana spp., were investigated. Eggs were deposited singly on the underside of leaves. Although several eggs can be laid on a single leaf and a maximum of three individual mines were seen on a single leaf, only one pupa per leaf ever developed. The generation time (egg to adult) was about 38 days. Females (mean 14 days) lived longer than males (mean 9 days) and produced about 61 mines. Oviposition and larval development occurred on all five lantana phenotypes tested. Eleven plant species representing six families were tested to determine the host range. Oviposition and larval development occurred on only lantana and another nonnative plant Lippia alba (Verbenaceae), with both species supporting populations over several generations. A CLIMEX model showed that most of the coastal areas of eastern Australia south to 30°16' S (Coffs Harbour) would be suitable for O. camarae. O. camarae was approved for release in Australia in October 2007 and mines have been observed on plants at numerous field sites along the coast following releases.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Kadonneet pojat : Monitapaustutkimus ESY-poikien kompleksisesta koulu-urasta ja elämänkulusta

Lost boys. A multiple case study of the complex school career and life-course of male students who have attended special classes for the emotionally and behaviourally maladjusted The purpose of this thesis is to describe the school career and the life-course of eight former special-class students from the comprehensive school to their further education and into adulthood. The members of the target group have been students of special classes for pupils with emotional and behavioural difficulties in southern Finland. The interviews were made 1994-1997 at school and for follow-up interviews 2002-2003, when the participants were already adults. Six mothers were also interviewed. The qualitative data was gathered using individual interviews and Adult Attachment Interview. The aim was to explore the life-histories of subjects from early childhood to early adulthood. Information was gathered also from the documents concerning the students´ school attendance. Every single life-history is illustrated as a life-course graphic. The data has been analysed using different frames of reference and combining different theories. In addition to theories considering developmental risk factors and protective factors, the data is considered using theories of control over life, attribution, self-efficacy and identity and attitudes towards education. The experiential living mode of the students has been studied, as well. The results of this study show that the frames of references which are used complement each other. The target students clustered identically in spite of the frames of reference. As a result, the study has illustrated the same phenomenon from different points of view. The results of the study consist of three types of school careers: The winding career, the vicious circle career and the straight career. The three careers differ from each other in developmental risk and protective factors and post-school life-courses of the students. The type of childhood families and especially the fathers´ attention to the school education as well as the free time of their sons was important. Keywords: Pupils with emotional and behavioural difficulties, maladjustment to school, life-course, identity

Matkalla suomalaiseksi ja hoiva-alan ammattilaiseksi? : Venäläis- ja virolaistaustaisten naisten ja suomalaisuuden kohtaamiset kuulumista rakentamassa

The research examines the process by which a sense of belonging to Finnish society is constructed among women of Russian and Estonian background who are multiply marginalised in Finnish society. It does so by analysing the encounters between their nationality and 'being Finnis'. Attention is focused on the question of what kind of "journey" they take after moving to Finland, how a sense of belonging is constructed especially along the paths followed in education and at work, and what kind of agency is available to them. The thesis is connected with post-colonial research and also draws from studies on citizenship and nationality as well as the social structures of interaction, when analysing careers. As the educational system forms the most central context of the research, the work is also focused on educational sociology. The research methodology includes life history and a narrative approach. The raw data is from thematic interviews concerning the life experiences of women of immigrant backgrounds. They were studying in Finland to be practical nurses or to complete Bachelor of Social Service degree. According to the study, the women had been encountered as alien, strange, and carrying a shade of "otherness". The experience of inclusion in Finnish communities and society turned out to be conditional, an inclusion based on the notion of a citizen worker, which is defined by national needs. The person from abroad is placed in the position of someone who fills gaps in the services of the welfare state. The choice of education in the care sector and the overall necessity of obtaining Finnish education turned out to be socially directed. Gendered structures of education and working life were found to act as a frame in which the decisions of the immigrant women were made. Although national education policy emphasis as an orientation to global labour markets, the immigrant student is placed above all in the position of an object to be made suitable for the Finnish labour market. Citizenship, a goal of education, requires consent to being "socialised" into Finnish society as well as learning to be Finnish. One s only option to negotiate appearing suitable as a member is to construct oneself into someone who adopts Finnish and Western cultural values, values which favour individuality. However, Finnish education is a resource to Finnishness. Finnish education enables a sense of being Finnish, and empowers the job applicant for example, and in addition to providing cultural, human and social capital strengthen inclusion as well. The study confirms the view that the encounter of an immigrant is still characterised by its colonial nature. It shows that encounters with Finns and Finnish society place the person of immigrant background, even one receiving a Finnish education, in the position of "the other". The journey as an immigrant continues. The immigrant has access only to certain predefined subject positions, which limits agency. When categorised as an immigrant, one becomes a per-son who is different and "other", while the sense of belonging as a member of Finnish society without conditions appears to be somewhat unreachable. Yet, new arrivals are capable of acting change. An immigrant woman can challenge the positions offered to her and present herself as strong. Her life story has often included struggle, and she has the fortitude strength to change her circumstances. Key words: life story, post-colonial encounter, nationality, citizenship, the career of immi-grant, position, agency

Demography of feral camels in central Australia and its relevance to population control

Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.