Crunch time for bank audits? Questions of practice and scope for dialogue

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the way in which auditing issues have been raised and addressed during the credit crunch and developing global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis is based on a review of the academic auditing literature, regulatory and audit reports, together with papers from the financial press. Findings – After highlighting the relative lack of media attention devoted to the external auditing function in the light of major corporate collapses, the paper considers what, contrastingly, is an active and ongoing series of responses to the current crisis on the part of auditing firms and the profession more generally. Through such analysis the paper explores a number of implications of the credit crunch for both auditing practice and research. Research limitations/implications – The paper is constrained in part by the rapidly unfolding nature of events, with important policy developments arising almost on a daily basis. The paper draws primarily on events up to the beginning of October 2008. Practical implications – The paper has important messages for audit practice and research, including the technical capacities of external audits in the banking sector, the contributions of standard setting bodies and regulatory oversight, and the scope for enhanced dialogue between such parties and audit researchers. Originality/value - The paper serves both to focus and stimulate analysis of the credit crunch on the audit profession. It demonstrates the complexity of contemporary practice and highlights the importance, especially from an educational perspective, of developing understanding of banking audit practice and associated regulatory interactions – including the presented possibilities both for research and enhanced academic‐practitioner dialogue.

Market risk reporting by the world's top banks:evidence on the diversity of reporting practice and the implications for international accounting harmonisation

The increasing adoption of international accounting standards and global convergence of accounting regulations is frequently heralded as serving to reduce diversity in financial reporting practice. In a process said to be driven in large part by the interests of international business and global financial markets, one might expect the greatest degree of convergence to be found amongst the world’s largest multinational financial corporations. This paper challenges such claims and presumptions. Its content analysis of longitudinal data for the period 2000-2006 reveals substantial, on going diversity in the market risk disclosure practices, both numerical and narrative, of the world’s top-25 banks. The significance of such findings is reinforced by the sheer scale of the banking sector’s risk exposures that have been subsequently revealed in the current global financial crisis. The variations in disclosure practices documented in the paper apply both across and within national boundaries, leading to a firm conclusion that, at least in terms of market risk reporting, progress towards international harmonisation remains rather more apparent than real.

Human resource management in China and India

The first decade of the twenty-first century has witnessed further growth in emerging markets, which is significantly influencing the global economic landscape. For the first time in almost two hundred years, it is in this decade that the emerging economies have caught up with, and raced ahead of, the developed ones in terms of gross domestic product. This is a trend that is likely to continue for some time as many of the developed economies struggle to recover from the global financial crisis. In particular, China and India as two fast growing economies are significantly contributing to the world economic growth and are the flag bearers of this transformation. Acknowledged as favourite destinations for global manufacturing (China) and services (India) related outsourcing, both nations offer huge growth opportunities in most products and services. However, in order to sustain their phenomenal economic growth of the past decades, both countries are facing a number of challenges to their human resource management (HRM). From a macro perspective, these issues tend to appear similar (e.g., attraction and retention of talent), but given the significant sociocultural, institutional, political, legal and other differences between the two nations, the logics underpinning the approaches to managing human resources issues appear somewhat different. This chapter therefore aims to highlight the key forces determining the nature of HRM in China and India. The chapter consists of three main sections, in addition to the Introduction and Conclusions.

Inward investment and the drivers of post recession recovery in Germany

This paper examines changes in the drivers of productivity in Germany over the period 1997-2012. We start by comparing the performance of German firms and inward investors before and during the recovery from the recent global financial crisis of 2008 across a range of sectors, and subsequently examine the channels through which different firms are able to generate productivity. Our results show that foreign investors are more productive than German MNEs and purely domestic firms, with the gap narrowing in the manufacturing sector, but growing in the service sector during the recovery period. We also contrast those firms for whom productivity growth is related to greater use of intangible assets, compared with those for whom productivity is linked to cash flow. Productivity of inward investors is driven by cash flow rather than intangible assets, these being limited to high-technology investors from the EU and the USA.

A piaci likviditás hatása a vállalatokra (The effect of market liquidity for companies)

A 2007-ben kezdődő pénzügyi eredetű világgazdasági válság nyilvánvalóvá tette a kapcsolatot a likviditás két fajtája, a finanszírozási és a piaci likviditás között. A cikk megismertet a piaci likviditással kapcsolatos olyan alapvető fogalmakkal, mint order flow, ajánlati könyv, piaci struktúrák, bemutatja a piaci likviditás dimenzióit, a likviditás néhány mutatószámát és a piaci likviditás stilizált tényeit. A banki likviditáskezelés rövid összefoglalásán túl bevezetést nyújt a portfóliók likviditáskockázat melletti értékelésébe, végezetül összefoglalja, hogy az alapvetően finanszírozási likviditási kockázatnak kitett nem pénzügyi vállalatok hogyan vehetik figyelembe döntéseik meghozatalakor a piaci likviditást. _____________________ The global financial crisis starting in 2007 has showed that the connection between market liquidity and funding liquidity is apparent. This paper introduces the basic notions regarding market liquidity such as order flow, order book, and market structures. The article also presents the various dimensions of market liquidity, several measures of liquidity and the stylized facts of market liquidity. Besides a short description of liquidity management of banks it briefly introduces portfolio valuation in the presence of liquidity risk. Finally, the paper gives insight to non-financial companies, fundamentally exposed to funding liquidity risk, on how to consider market liquidity in their decisions.

Planejando com lean construction: diretrizes para implementação da construção enxuta em obras

Nowadays lives up in an era of tight credit caused by the global financial crisis, as occurred in the past, it is the responsibility of various sectors and segments of society find ways to reinvent itself. In this context, Lean Construction presents itself as a strong alternative production management for companies in the construction segment. Arising out of lean thinking that originated in Japan in the postwar period and has spread around the world in times of extreme scarcity with the oil crisis. In practice the Lean Construction is a philosophy that seeks to improve the process of production management, maximizing the value of the flow from the customer's perspective through the elimination of losses. And thrives in environments and cultures that consider the scarcity of resources like something natural, applying both the macroeconomic crisis as in times of prosperity. The Planning and Production Control - PCP presents itself as a fundamental building block for companies to protect themselves in the face of economic fluctuations, seeking for their survival and success in the competitive market. Motivated by the lack of discussion of the topic in the local academy, and for the identification of 93.33% of construction companies that do not make use of methodological tools for PCP in the state, this dissertation aims to study and propose the implementation of lean construction in methodology of planning projects implemented on construction sites. This characterized the management system, of the production of a construction company, pointing out the main causes of ineffectiveness related to consequent low performance of one of his ventures. In sequence, the PCP was implemented with the use of tools to serve the principles of lean construction. This being monitored through indicators that provided managers managerial view of process of actions control and production of protective mechanisms. All implementation guidelines and application of this management model, were exposed in a simplified way, practical and efficient, in order to break the resistance of new practices and old paradigms in the industry.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Temporary contracts and non-protected employment in Argentina, Chile and Perú: incidence and determinants

The diverse kinds of legal temporary contracts and the employment forms that do not comply with legal requirements both facilitate employment adjustment to firms´ requirements and entail labour cost reductions. Their employment incidence depends not only on the economic and labour market evolutions but also on other factors, in particular the historical trajectories followed by labour legislation, state enforcement, and the degree of compliance. To contribute to the understanding of the determinants of the degree of utilization of different employment practices, the study reported in this article explores the use made of the various legal temporary contracts and of precarious employment relationships by private enterprises in three Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile and Peru) during 2003-2012, a period of economic growth, and the explanatory role of diverse factors.

New Public Management: The Story Continues

New Public Management (NPM) has aroused significant interest amongst academe, policy makers and practitioners, since its first articulation in the seminal articles by Hood (1991 and 1995). However, in the 21st century, a body of opinion has developed which asserts that the NPM is passé. This paper seeks to determine the contemporary status of NPM in the context of the UK, one of the early adopters of NPM. Close inspection of UK Government policy underlines the importance of NPM ideas in the New Labour Government modernisation policy (1997-2010). Furthermore, the policy actions of the 2010–2015 UK Coalition Government reveal that the global financial crisis intensified the drive for NPM in the UK’s public sector. This discussion reveals no evidence in support of the demise of NPM.

Bond Fund Performance During Recessions and Expansions: Empirical Evidence from a Small Market

This paper provides the first investigation about bond mutual fund performance during recession and expansion periods separately. Based on multi-factor performance evaluation models, results show that bond funds significantly underperform the market during both phases of the business cycle. Nevertheless, unlike equity funds, bond funds exhibit considerably higher alphas during good economic states than during market downturns. These results, however, seem entirely driven by the global financial crisis subperiod. In contrast, during the recession associated to the Euro sovereign debt crisis, bond funds are able to accomplish neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the debt crisis seems to be related to more conservative investment strategies, which reflect an increase in managers’ risk aversion.

Energy efficiency and climate policy in the management of public spaces: public lighting

Public Lightning is an important part of municipality’s nighttime landscape. Lighting can be used to enhance public safety and security while improving the aesthetic appeal of the surrounding properties but with the current global financial crisis, such lighting systems must also be sustainable. Most climate policy efforts focus on the state and international level, however national governments won’t be able to meet their international commitments without local action. In Portugal, the Public Lighting is responsible for 3% of energy consumption. The problem is that the trend is to increase (about 4-5% per year) which represents very high costs for the municipal authorities. In terms of numbers are analyzed in this thesis 45 of 278 existent in Continental Portugal what represents only 16,2 % of the counties. This where the local authorities in Portugal that had a Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP) that had been accepted and made available in the Covenant of Mayors website until the end of year 2013. It is important that the Covenant of Mayors will increase the local authorities awareness for energy efficiency and especially to public lighting because there is still a long way to go in terms of energy consumption reduction. In future works it would be interesting to see the payback of the EolGreen post in a real scenario due to lack of energy consumption from the grid it would allow to have a pretty high initial investment even with the maintenance that those technologies need.

Análise do contágio nos principais índices bolsistas europeu e norte-americano

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos Negócios

Planeamento Fiscal nas operações relativas a instrumentos financeiros derivados e a sua tributação

Mestrado em Fiscalidade

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

O impacto das medidas da Troika no desempenho económico-financeiro das empresas portuguesas

Os efeitos despoletados com a crise financeira de 2008 marcaram uma mudança radical de pensamentos e políticas entre as várias economias mundiais. Esta crise ficou marcada pelo enorme esforço que as economias tiveram que suportar, obrigando todos mercados a moldarem-se em função das contingências implementadas. Após análise e leitura de diversa literatura é consensual a referência ao início da crise financeira nos Estados Unidos da América (EUA) com o chamado subprime, percebendo-se também que muito rapidamente atingiria a Europa e todo o mundo. Desta forma, a Europa e inevitavelmente Portugal, acabaria por ser atingido e sofrer diversas consequências resultantes desta crise financeira. Na verdade, fruto da enorme turbulência dos mercados mundiais e da globalização, Portugal (incapaz de por si só sair da crise em que se viu envolvido) vê-se na necessidade de recorrer a ajuda externa por parte da Troika. Neste sentido, a presente dissertação tem como objetivo relatar resumidamente o início da crise financeira mundial, analisando o impacto das políticas de combate à crise implementadas em Portugal, no desempenho económico-financeiro das empresas portuguesas. Este estudo recaiu sobre a análise e perceção de comportamento de alguns indicadores económico financeiros entre os anos de 2010 a 2014, período durante o qual a Troika esteve presente em Portugal, implementando uma serie de reformas e políticas de combate à crise. Assim, debruçamo-nos sobre quatro setores de atividade (Construção Civil, Restauração, Hotelaria e Indústria do Calçado), observando os dados financeiros extraídos da base de dados SABI (Sistema de análise de Balanços Ibéricos) sobre empresas inseridas nos respetivos setores de atividade. Com base nos resultados do estudo realizado podemos concluir que o desempenho dos indicadores económico financeiros foram mais penalizados nos setores da Construção Civil e da Hotelaria.