Essays in International Finance and Macroeconomics

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

Fatores que influenciam a intenção de compra online: aplicação de um modelo adaptado de aceitação da tecnologia para o comércio eletrônico

This research aims to understand the factors that influence intention to online purchase of consumers, and to identify between these factors those that influence the users and the nonusers of electronic commerce. Thus, it is an applied, exploratory and descriptive research, developed in a quantitative model. Data collection was done through a questionnaire administered to a sample of 194 graduate students from the Centre for Applied Social Sciences of UFRN and data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics, confirmatory factorial analysis and simple and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of descriptive statistics revealed that respondents in general and users of electronic commerce have positive perceptions of ease of use, usefulness and social influence about buying online, and intend to make purchases on Internet over the next six months. As for the non-users of electronic commerce, they do not trust the Internet to transact business, have negative perceptions of risk and social influence over purchasing online, and does not intend to make purchases on Internet over the next six months. Through confirmatory factorial analysis six factors were set up: behavioral intention, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, trust and social influence. Through multiple regression analysis, was observed that all these factors influence online purchase intentions of respondents in general, that only the social influence does not influence the intention to continue buying on the Internet from users of electronic commerce, and that only trust and social influence affect the intention to purchase online from non-users of electronic commerce. Through simple regression analysis, was found that trust influences perceptions of ease of use, usefulness and risk of respondents in general and users of electronic commerce, and that trust does not influence the perceptions of risk of non-users of electronic commerce. Finally, it was also found that the perceived ease of use influences perceived usefulness of the three groups. Given this scenario, it was concluded that it is extremely important that organizations that work with online sales know the factors that influence consumers purchasing intentions in order to gain space in their market

Economic Evaluations of State Policies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Untangling Knots: Determining E-book Suitability for Course Reserves

E-books on their own are complex; they become even more so in the context of course reserves. In FY2016 the Resource Sharing & Reserves and Acquisitions units developed a new workflow for vetting requested e-books to ensure that they were suitable for course reserves (i.e. they permit unlimited simultaneous users) before posting links to them within the university’s online learning management system. In the Spring 2016 semester 46 e-books were vetted through this process, resulting in 18 purchases. Preliminary data analysis sheds light on the suitability of the Libraries’ current e-book collections for course reserves as well as faculty preferences, with potential implications for the Libraries’ ordering process. We hope this lightening talk will generate discussion about these issues among selectors, collection managers, and reserves staff alike.

Controle social e políticas públicas: contribuições para aprimorar o controle social do programa nacional de alimentação escolar

The National School Feeding Programme (PNAE) is a public policy in Brazil for over 60 years and represents one of the most important programs of feeding and nutrition in the world. The role of family farming as a source of employment in rural areas, food provider and for ensuring much of the Brazil’s food security is constantly present at the government's and social movement’s agendas. Law 11.947 of 2009 marked its integration in the food supply for the National School Feeding Programme. Article 14 of aforementioned law highlights that a minimum of 30% (thirty percent) of the funds transferred by the National Development Fund Education (FNDE) to the Programme must be used for the purchase of food directly from family farmers or their organizations. The national school feeding policy under the responsibility of the FNDE and is subjected to agencies of internal control, such as the General Controllership of the Union (CGU), of external control, such as the Audit Courts of the Union and the of the states, and to the social control of the school feeding councils. Those funds are transferred to the implementing agencies, which are the education offices of the states, municipalities and of the Federal District. These entities must annually present their accountings to the School Feeding Councils, which analyze them and then issue a conclusive report to the FNDE, approving with or without reservations, or rejecting them. In this sense, this research aims to propose parameters that should contribute to the improvement of the social control over purchases from family farming for the National School Feeding Programme. The study was conducted by non parametric sampling alongside the managers of the implementing entities, school feeding councils and Family Farming Organizations all across Brazil, from the databases provided by FNDE and by the National Union of Cooperatives of Family Agriculture and Solidarity Economy (Unicafes). The study points out that the legal framework of PNAE seeks to ensure the participation of family farming in the food supply for the Programme, despite allowing the executing agencies to justify the non-compliance of the minimum required in a number of ways. The survey also signalizes that the school feeding councils follow the implementation of the Programme very shyly, and points out that there is room to expand and enhance the participation of these councils and organizations of family farming in the execution of PNAE. Its effectiveness requires a constant and effective process of training of the agents involved in the Programme.

Modelo de inventarios para control económico de pedidos en empresa comercializadora de alimentos

En el estudio que originó este artículo se elaboró una propuesta de mejora del sistema de inventarios para una comercializadora de alimentos en la ciudad de Santa Marta, a fin de lograr una reducción en los costos de inventario y un incremento en el beneficio económico de la organización, mediante la planificación y control de las compras y ventas de los productos. El proceso aplicado consiste en la clasificación de los productos manejados por la empresa con el método ABC, de acuerdo con la importancia de cada producto en el total de ventas de la distribuidora; posteriormente se aplicó el modelo de Cantidad Económica de Pedido –EOQ–, con el fin de sistematizar los conteos periódicos en los productos guardados en bodega, establecer los registros de las ventas realizadas, determinar la cantidad óptima de pedidos y el momento justo en el cual se debe pedir mercancía a los proveedores y las cantidades mínimas de reorden.

Commissioning for purpose: investigating commissioning as a collecting strategy for municipal museums and galleries 2000-present

The use of the ‘commission-accession’ principle as a mechanism for sustainable collecting in public museums and galleries has been significantly under-researched, only recently soliciting attention from national funding bodies in the United Kingdom (UK). This research has assessed an unfolding situation and provided a body of current evaluative evidence for commission-based acquisitions and a model for curators to use in future contemporary art purchases. ‘Commission-accession’ is a practice increasingly used by European and American museums yet has seen little uptake in the UK. Very recent examples demonstrate that new works produced via commissioning which then enter permanent collections, have significant financial and audience benefits that UK museums could harness, by drawing on the expertise of local and national commissioning organisations. Very little evaluative information is available on inter-institutional precedents in the United States (US) or ‘achat par commande’ in France. Neither is there yet literature that investigates the ambition for and viability of such models in the UK. This thesis addresses both of these areas, and provides evaluative case studies that will be of particular value to curators who seek sustainable ways to build their contemporary art collections. It draws on a survey of 82 museums and galleries across the UK conducted for this research, which provide a picture of where and how ‘commission-accession’ has been applied, and demonstrates its impacts as a strategy. In addition interviews with artists and curators in the UK, US and France on the social, economic and cultural implications of ‘commission-accession’ processes were undertaken. These have shed new light on issues inherent to the commissioning of contemporary art such as communication, trust, and risk as well as drawing attention to the benefits and challenges involved in commissioning as of yet unmade works of art.

A confiança interorganizacional nas compras

This research is part of the field of organizational studies, focusing on organizational purchase behavior and, specifically, trust interorganizational at the purchases. This topic is current and relevant by addressing the development of good relations between buyer-supplier that increases the exchange of information, increases the length of relationship, reduces the hierarchical controls and improves performance. Furthermore, although there is a vast literature on trust, the scientific work that deal specifically at the trust interorganizational still need further research to synthesize and validate the variables that generate this phenomenon. In this sense, this investigation is to explain the antecedents of trust interorganizational by the relationship between the variable operational performance, organizational characteristics, shared values and interpersonal relationships on purchases by manufacturing industries, in order to develop a robust literature, most consensual, that includes the current sociological and economic, considering the effect of interpersonal relationships in this phenomenon. This proposal is configured in a new vision of the antecedents of interorganizational trust, described as significant quantitative from models Morgan and Hunt (1994), Doney and Cannon (1997), Zhao and Cavusgil (2006) and Nyaga, Whipple, Lynch (2011), as well as qualitative analysis of Tacconi et al. (2011). With regard to methodological aspects, the study assumes the form of a descriptive, survey type, and causal trace theoretical and empirical. As for his nature, the investigation, explicative character, has developed a quantitative approach with the use of exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling SEM, with the use of IBM software SPSS Amos 18.0, using the method of maximum verisimilitude, and supported by technical bootstraping. The unit of analysis was the buyer-supplier relationship, in which the object under investigation was the supplier organization in view of the purchasing company. 237 valid questionnaires were collected among key informants, using a simple random sampling developed in manufacturing industries (SIC 10-33), located in the city of Natal and in the region of Natal. The first results of descriptive analysis demonstrate the phenomenon of interorganizational trust, in which purchasing firms believe, feel secure about the supplier. This demonstration showed high levels of intensity, predominantly among the vendors that supply the company with materials that are used directly in the production process. The exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, performed on each variable alone, generated a set of observable and unobservable variables more consistent, giving rise to a model, that needed to be further specified. This again specify model consists of trajectories was positive, with a good fit, with a composite reliability and variance extracted satisfactory, and demonstrates convergent and discriminant validity, in which the factor loadings are significant and strong explanatory power. Given the findings that reinforce the model again specify data, suggesting a high probability that this model may be more suited for the study population, the results support the explanation that interorganizational trust depends on purchases directly from interpersonal relationships, sharing value and operating performance and indirectly of personal relationships, social networks, organizational characteristics, physical and relational aspect of performance. It is concluded that this trust can be explained by a set of interactions between these three determinants, where the focus is on interpersonal relationships, with the largest path coefficient for the factor under study

Estudo das preferências do consumo de pão na região de Viseu

O pão, um dos alimentos mais consumidos a nível mundial, tem como principal função o fornecimento de energia ao organismo. Considerado como um alimento funcional é igualmente dotado de benefícios nutricionais que podem ajudar no combate do excesso de peso e obesidade, sendo indispensável para uma dieta saudável. Deste modo, o objetivo deste trabalho consiste em dar a conhecer os hábitos de consumo de pão e as preferências dos consumidores da região de Viseu, pretendendo-se aferir em que medida os hábitos de consumo, compras e entendimento relativo ao consumo do pão, diferem com base nas variáveis individuais. O estudo foi realizado através de um inquérito por questionário, por entrevista direta. Os dados demográficos, hábitos de consumo, compras e o entendimento relativo ao consumo de pão, foram os parâmetros selecionados para a estruturação do inquérito. A amostra era composta por 500 inquiridos, onde 35,40% pertenciam ao género masculino e 64,06% ao género feminino. A maioria da população em estudo gosta de pão e inclui pão na sua dieta. Observou-se que o pão de mistura era o pão mais consumido e a refeição onde se ingeria mais pão seria ao pequeno-almoço. Os filhos dos inquiridos ao pequeno-almoço consumiam mais leite e o pão era o terceiro alimento mais consumido. De um modo geral, os inquiridos valorizavam mais as características sensoriais no ato de compra do pão. O local mais requisitado para comprar de pão era a pastelaria. No que diz respeito ao nível de conhecimentos, a grande maioria dos inquiridos respondeu corretamente a pelo menos metade das questões. Pode-se concluir que o pão faz, em geral, parte da dieta alimentar da população da amostra em estudo. Comparativamente com um estudo nacional efetuado em 2011 pela Federação Portuguesa de Cardiologia e o Museu do Pão, existem semelhanças nos resultados, no que diz respeito às refeições onde se consome mais pão e ao tipo de pão consumido. Existe uma falha de informação a nível nacional, sobre o tema pão, havendo a necessidade de este tema ser mais estudado/explorado.

Fatores que influenciam a intenção de compra online: aplicação de um modelo adaptado de aceitação da tecnologia para o comércio eletrônico

This research aims to understand the factors that influence intention to online purchase of consumers, and to identify between these factors those that influence the users and the nonusers of electronic commerce. Thus, it is an applied, exploratory and descriptive research, developed in a quantitative model. Data collection was done through a questionnaire administered to a sample of 194 graduate students from the Centre for Applied Social Sciences of UFRN and data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics, confirmatory factorial analysis and simple and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of descriptive statistics revealed that respondents in general and users of electronic commerce have positive perceptions of ease of use, usefulness and social influence about buying online, and intend to make purchases on Internet over the next six months. As for the non-users of electronic commerce, they do not trust the Internet to transact business, have negative perceptions of risk and social influence over purchasing online, and does not intend to make purchases on Internet over the next six months. Through confirmatory factorial analysis six factors were set up: behavioral intention, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, trust and social influence. Through multiple regression analysis, was observed that all these factors influence online purchase intentions of respondents in general, that only the social influence does not influence the intention to continue buying on the Internet from users of electronic commerce, and that only trust and social influence affect the intention to purchase online from non-users of electronic commerce. Through simple regression analysis, was found that trust influences perceptions of ease of use, usefulness and risk of respondents in general and users of electronic commerce, and that trust does not influence the perceptions of risk of non-users of electronic commerce. Finally, it was also found that the perceived ease of use influences perceived usefulness of the three groups. Given this scenario, it was concluded that it is extremely important that organizations that work with online sales know the factors that influence consumers purchasing intentions in order to gain space in their market

A influência das aplicações móveis na percepção da imagem de marcas comerciais

A história da humanidade é marcada por invenções a nível tecnológico que provocam grandes alterações na sociedade e, consequentemente, no mundo. Depois do aparecimento da Internet há algumas décadas, assistimos atualmente ao surgimento de um novo grande marco histórico ao nível tecnológico: a era do marketing digital e da comunicação móvel. Nos últimos anos, o crescimento exponencial e o desenvolvimento do mercado de smartphones e das aplicações móveis fizeram com que estas se tornassem num dos principais meios de comunicação e impusessem novas dinâmicas quanto à forma de interagir, pesquisar informação, efetuar compras/pagamentos, organizar as mais diversas tarefas diárias, jogar e até de trabalhar. Os novos ritmos de vida garantem aos consumidores uma menor disponibilidade de exposição aos conteúdos e às atividades das marcas. Deste modo, e devido ao reconhecimento das potencialidades dos canais móveis, o conceito da mobilidade tem vindo a ganhar uma crescente valorização. A necessidade de criação de novas plataformas interativas que facilitem a vida dos consumidores é cada vez maior e permite às marcas uma relação de proximidade constante e sem barreiras com os seus consumidores em qualquer lugar e a qualquer hora através de dispositivos móveis que são, hoje em dia, uma ferramenta imprescindível tanto a nível pessoal e social como a nível profissional.

UNDERSTANDING CUSTOMER CHOICES IN SERVICE OUTSOURCING AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT

This dissertation investigates customer behavior modeling in service outsourcing and revenue management in the service sector (i.e., airline and hotel industries). In particular, it focuses on a common theme of improving firms’ strategic decisions through the understanding of customer preferences. Decisions concerning degrees of outsourcing, such as firms’ capacity choices, are important to performance outcomes. These choices are especially important in high-customer-contact services (e.g., airline industry) because of the characteristics of services: simultaneity of consumption and production, and intangibility and perishability of the offering. Essay 1 estimates how outsourcing affects customer choices and market share in the airline industry, and consequently the revenue implications from outsourcing. However, outsourcing decisions are typically endogenous. A firm may choose whether to outsource or not based on what a firm expects to be the best outcome. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by proposing a structural model which could capture a firm’s profit-maximizing decision-making behavior in a market. This makes possible the prediction of consequences (i.e., performance outcomes) of future strategic moves. Another emerging area in service operations management is revenue management. Choice-based revenue systems incorporate discrete choice models into traditional revenue management algorithms. To successfully implement a choice-based revenue system, it is necessary to estimate customer preferences as a valid input to optimization algorithms. The third essay investigates how to estimate customer preferences when part of the market is consistently unobserved. This issue is especially prominent in choice-based revenue management systems. Normally a firm only has its own observed purchases, while those customers who purchase from competitors or do not make purchases are unobserved. Most current estimation procedures depend on unrealistic assumptions about customer arriving. This study proposes a new estimation methodology, which does not require any prior knowledge about the customer arrival process and allows for arbitrary demand distributions. Compared with previous methods, this model performs superior when the true demand is highly variable.

"Palacio donde morar". "Heredad donde holgar". Spéculation immobilière et constitution de fief nobiliaire. Inquisition et noblesse andalouse

Dans cet article, je tente de montrer comment, à travers l’Inquisition, s’est joué un conflit sourd pour la terre qui a permis la création d’une nouvelle noblesse de service. Cette création s’apparente à une forme de surclassement" de certains lignages, qui est allé de pair avec un "déclassement" inversement proportionnel de familles conversas. Les deux thèmes que j’aborde sont les enjeux de la spéculation immobilière qui se joue autour de la vente des biens urbains confisqués et ceux de la constitution de fiefs dans la promotion de certains lignages, en particulier de celui des Enríquez de Ribera, à la tête du marquesado de Tarifa, puis ducado de Alcalá. Le but fut de permettre la promotion fulgurante et solide d’un lignage, c’est l’évidence, mais par-delà le cas particulier, l’arrière-plan foncier et économique de la distribution de la terre et le pouvoir qui en découle engagent, à un moment déterminé, une transformation sociale qui change profondément la donne au XVIe siècle.

Estudo comparativo dos fatores que influenciam a intenção de compra do consumidor em plataformas de E-commerce e M-commerce

Com a utilização da Internet a fazer cada vez mais parte do dia-a-dia das pessoas, foram muitas as empresas que se adaptaram ao fenómeno E-commerce e outras até se transformaram por completo perante o mesmo. Com normalidade o número de lojas online aumentou assim como as compras através das mesmas. Em igual crescimento está a utilização dos smartphones para aceder à Internet, o que fez com que o tipo de comércio online já existente M-commerce ganhasse uma nova força e posição nas vendas através da Internet. Assim para compreender os fatores que influenciam a intenção de compra do consumidor em plataformas de E-commerce e M-commerce e em qual têm mais influência, realizou-se o presente estudo comparativo. Por forma a realizar este estudo aplicou-se um modelo, que analisa a influência da utilidade percebida, facilidade de uso percebida, influência social, condições facilitadoras, confiança e risco percebido na intenção de compra do consumidor. Foram realizadas duas regressões lineares múltiplas e dois testes à correlação de Spearman para testar as hipóteses propostas. A amostra é constituída por 76 indivíduos do sexo masculino e 125 do sexo feminino, com idades compreendidas entre os 18 e os 65 anos, sendo que a maioria está entre os 18 e os 35 anos. Dos principais resultados conclui-se que a utilidade percebida tem mais influência na intenção de compra em plataformas de E-commerce, na facilidade de uso percebida não existe diferença estatisticamente significativa entre plataformas e a influência social e a confiança têm mais influência em plataformas de M-commerce. Não foi possível comprovar a influência das condições facilitadoras e do risco percebido na intenção de compra do consumidor em ambas as plataformas.