Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comportamento dinâmico da rede eléctrica da ilha de São Vicente em Cabo Verde: estabilidade de tensão

Neste trabalho é efectuado, não só o diagnóstico em regime permanente, mas também o estudo, simulação e análise do comportamento dinâmico da rede eléctrica da ilha de São Vicente em Cabo Verde. Os estudos de estabilidade transitória desempenham um importante papel, tanto no planeamento como na operação dos sistemas de potência. Tais estudos são realizados, em grande parte, através de simulação digital no domínio do tempo, utilizando integração numérica para resolver as equações não-lineares que modelam a dinâmica do sistema e dependem da existência de registos reais de perturbação (ex: osciloperturbografia). O objectivo do trabalho será também verificar a aplicabilidade dos requisitos técnicos que as unidades geradoras devem ter, no que concerne ao controlo de tensão, estabelecidos na futura regulamentação europeia desenvolvida pela ENTSO-E (European Network Transmission System Operator for Electricity). De entre os requisitos analisou-se a capacidade das máquinas existentes suportarem cavas de tensão decorrentes de curto-circuitos trifásicos simétricos, Fault Ride Through, no ponto de ligação à rede. Identificaram-se para o efeito os factores que influenciam a estabilidade desta rede, em regime perturbado nomeadamente: (i) duração do defeito, (ii) caracterização da carga, com e sem a presença do sistema de controlo de tensão (AVR) em unidades de geração síncronas. Na ausência de registos reais sobre o comportamento do sistema, conclui-se que este é sensível à elasticidade das cargas em particular do tipo potência constante, existindo risco de perda de estabilidade, neste caso, para defeitos superiores a 5ms sem AVR. A existência de AVR nesta rede afigura-se como indispensável para garantir estabilidade de tensão sendo contudo necessário proceder a uma correcta parametrização.

Lesões músculo-esqueléticas ligadas ao trabalho (LMELT) nos cantoneiros de limpeza/recolha de resíduos urbanos

Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene no TRabalho.

Agressividade e índice de Apgar

A agressividade é o comportamento que surge transversalmente como queixa isolada ou a par de outras queixas na maioria das crianças com e sem doença, que procuram apoio em saúde mental infantil. Nessas crianças, e a partir da recolha dos dados anamnesicos, tem-se verificado a constância de registo, no Livro do Bebé, de Índice de Apgar ≤ 9 ao primeiro minuto. Este estudo exploratório pretendeu analisar a hipótese teórica de que o Índice de Apgar abaixo de 10 ao primeiro minuto pode ser representativo de sofrimento fetal intraparto ou perinatal e assim fragilizar os circuitos neuronais das emoções tendo como consequência o surgimento, ao longo do desenvolvimento infantil e juvenil, de dificuldades na capacidade de gestão ou controlo das emoções, com comportamentos opositivos e/ou agressivos, como resposta defensiva de luta e fuga. Utilizou-se uma amostra de crianças inscritas no serviço de consulta externa de saúde mental infantil e juvenil, e verificou-se se as queixas de perturbação do comportamento com agressividade, formuladas no momento do acolhimento ao serviço, estão relacionadas com o Índice de Apgar ≤ 9 ao primeiro minuto e/ou com os registos de sofrimento fetal. Procurou-se, numa amostra aleatória de crianças sem queixa formulada no serviço de consulta externa de saúde mental infantil e juvenil, perceber as diferenças ou semelhanças dos registos de nascimento relativamente à amostra de crianças inscritas. Foi ainda auscultada a opinião dos profissionais dos serviços de obstetrícia e neonatologia – pediatria, mediante a aplicação de um questionário, no sentido de recolher as opiniões dos profissionais de saúde que lidam com o parto, que avaliam o Índice de Apgar dos recém – nascidos e que os seguem durante as primeiras horas ou dias de vida. Das conclusões a que chegamos, salienta-se que o sofrimento fetal intraparto pode ser predictor de dificuldades de controlo emocional traduzidas em alterações do comportamento com agressividade em situações de stress. Não se conclui que o Índice de Apgar ≤ 9 pode ser predictor de alterações do comportamento com agressividade em situações de stress, uma vez que os registos de ocorrências de sofrimento fetal intraparto e os registos do Índice de Apgar ao primeiro minuto são, na amostra de crianças com queixa, díspares, relacionando-se no entanto de modo estatisticamente significativo na amostra de crianças sem queixa. III No entanto, e apesar das dificuldades metodológicas, fica a certeza de haver mais percursos a percorrer nesta direcção para a compreensão dos distúrbios emocionais e a agressividade.

A eficácia e segurança da fisioterapia respiratória no tratamento da bronquiolite aguda em crianças até 2 anos de idade: revisão sistemática

Contexto: a bronquiolite aguda é a principal patologia a afectar a criança nos primeiros 2 anos de vida, a fisioterapia respiratória é uma intervenção terapêutica utilizada com a intenção de melhorar o curso desta doença mantendo-se a incerteza sobre a sua eficácia. Objectivo: determinar a eficácia e segurança da fisioterapia respiratória em crianças com menos de 2 anos com bronquiolite aguda. Fontes de Informação: Medline (1966 a Agosto 2010), EMBASE(1990 a Agosto 2010), Pedro e Lilacs (1982 a Agosto 2010). Outra fonte de informação incluiu a bibliografia dos estudos obtidos. Selecção de estudos: estudos experimentais comparando a fisioterapia respiratória com cuidados habituais, em crianças com menos de 2 anos e bronquiolite aguda, em ventilação espontânea, em qualquer contexto. Estudos pré-experimentais ou observacionais com os mesmos participantes e intervenções foram admitidos complementarmente aos experimentais. Extracção de dados e análise: um investigador extraiu os dados dos artigos obtidos e avaliou o risco de viés. A eficácia e segurança da fisioterapia respiratória foram determinadas pelos seguintes outcomes: duração do internamento hospitalar ou do evento, variação de scores de severidade clínica, saturação periférica e suplementação de oxigénio, recidivas, recurso a antibióticos e efeitos deletérios ou deterioração clínica reportada. Síntese de dados: 6 estudos experimentais foram admitidos. As suas amostras provinham de criança internadas em hospital. As técnicas de fisioterapia respiratória foram comparadas com cuidados habituais. Nenhum estudo evidenciou melhoria dos outcomes de interesse na comparação entre grupos, excepto avaliações de curta duração da saturação periférica de oxigénio e scores de severidade clínica. 1 estudo reportou uma percentagem significativamente maior no grupo submetido a fisioterapia respiratória de crianças que vomitaram, tiveram uma desestabilização respiratória transitória, e na percepção de stress da criança pelos cuidadores. São relatadas ainda fracturas costais a causa de fisioterapia respiratória. Limitações: o risco de viés era alto em 2 estudos, baixo num estudo e indeterminado nos restantes. Conclusões: aparentemente a fisioterapia respiratória não é eficaz e pode produzir efeitos deletérios importantes, mas a evidência é pobre, carecendo de novos estudos.

Percepções de doença e tratamento, estado emocional e satisfação nos cuidados de saúde em imagiologia

Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde.

Predictors of well-being in cancer survivors

Nearly 65% of adults diagnosed with cancer will live, at least, five years after the diagnostic. If the treatment is lengthy and disruptive, the persons can experience difficulties in returning to normal daily life. Research shows that cancer survivors suffer from more psychological distress than those who have never experienced cancer (5.6% versus 3.0%), reason why psychoeducational programs are necessary to help people return to everyday life. The objective of the present study is to identify psychosocial predictors of well being in people that survive cancer, are in stable condition, and a diagnosis of longer than three years.

Assessment of oltipraz in schistosomiasis mansoni clinical trial

Seventy three children (6-15 years) and 75 adults (18-47 years) with active schistosomiasis mansoni were treated with oltipraz. All cases had at least 100 eggs per gram of feces as determined by the Kato-Katz technique. Children and adults were divided in two groups receiving respectively 25 or 30 mg/kg, as a single oral dose. Clinical examination, laboratories tests (haemogram, urinalysis, hepatic and kidney functions tests, glycemia, cholesterol, triglicerides, lipoprotein — HLD and LDL) and ECG were performed before, 3 or 7 days and 1 month after treatment. Parasitological control with 3 daily coprological examinations, was done on the 1st, 3rd j 6th month after drug administration. Giddiness, somnolence, headache, nausea, vomiting and abdominal distress were the most frequent side effects. Pain in the finger tips that need further investigations also occurred. No significant alteration in complementary tests were observed, whereas eosinophilia 1 month after treatment was detected, probably indicating worm death. The cure rate in children was 81.8% and 74.2% with 25 and 30 mg/kg respectively, and in adults 75.0% and 81.2% of the patients. No statistical significant difference was observed between cure rate and side effects at different dosages employed, neither between adults nor children. In all groups the percentage of egg reduction in feces in the non cured patients was higher than 96.0%. Further investigation with this new compound is necessary to accomplish the real value of oltipraz in the schistosomiasis chemotherapy.

Survey on the clinical trial results achieved in Brazil comparing praziquantel and oxamniquine in the treatment of mansoni schistosomiasis

A random, double-blind, parallel group clinical trial program was carried out to compare praziquantel, a recently developed anti-helmintic drug, and oxamniquine, an already established agent for treating mansoni schistosomiasis. Both drugs were administered orally as a single dose, on the average, praziquantel 55 mg/kg and oxamniquine 16 mg/kg BWT. The diagnosis and the parasitological follow-up lasting for a minimum of six months, were based on stool examinations according to Kato/Katz technique. A patient was considered cured if all results were negative and if he had performed at least three post-treatment controls, each one comprising three stool examinations. The finding of a single S. mansoni egg in any stool examination indicated, a therapeutical failure. A total of 267, cases were treated with praziquantel and 272 with oxamniquine. The two groups were homogeneous in regard to patients, age, clinical form of the disease, risk of reinfection and worm burden, relevant factors in the therapeutical response. The incidence and severity of untoward, effects were similar in both groups but abdominal distress and diarrhoea were more frequently reported under praziquantel and dizzines under oxamniquine (p < 0.05). In the former group a marked urticariform reaction was observed whereas in the latter one patient presented convulsion. The laboratory work-up. failed to disclose any significant alteration although the AST, ALT and y-GT mean values revealed a tendence to increase on the 7th day after oxamniquine intake. The overall parasitological cure rates were 75.5% (139/ 184) with praziquantel and 69.8% (134/192) with oxamniquine (p > 0.05). Amongst the noncured aptients a reduction of 88.6% and 74.6% in the mean number of eggs/g of feces Was seen following the treatment with praziquantel and oxamniquine, respectively (p < 0.05). In conclusion, in spite of their different chemical, pharmacological and toxicological profiles as well as mechanisms-of-action, inclusively praziquantel already had proved to be 100% active against S. mansoni strains resistant to oxamniquine, both drugs showed comparable tolerance and therapeutical efficacy.

Treatment of patients with Schistosomiasis mansoni: a double blind clinical trial comparing praziquantel with oxamniquine

A double-blind clinical trial involving 120 patients with chronic schistosomiasis was carried out to compare the tolerability and efficacy of praziquantel and oxamniquine. The patients were randomly allocated into two groups. One was treated with praziquantel, 55 mg/kg of body weight CBWT), and the other one with oxamniquine, 15mg/kg bwt, administered in a single oral dose. The diagnosis and the parasitological follow-up was based on stool examinations by quantitative Kato-Katz method and on rectal biopsies. Side-effects — mainly dizziness, sleepness, abdominal distress, headache, nausea and diarrhea — were observed in 87% of the cases. Their incidence, intensity and duration were similar for both drugs but abdominal pain was significantly more frequent after praziquantel intake and severe dizziness was more commonly reported after oxamniquine. A significant increase of alanine-aminotransferase and y-glutamyltransferase was found with the latter drug and of total bilirubin with the former one. A total of 48 patients treated with praziquantel and 46 with oxamniquine completed with negative findings the required three post-treatment parasitological controls — three slides of each stool sample on the first, third and sixth month. The achieved cure rates were 79.2% and 84.8%, respectively, a difference without statistical significance. The non-cured cases showed a mean reduction in the number of eggs per gram of feces of 93.5% after praziquantel and of 84.1% after oxamniquine. This diference also was not significant. Five patients retreated with praziquantel were cured but only one out of three treated a second time with oxamniquine. These findings show that both drugs — despite their different chemical structures, pharmacological properties and mechanisms-of-action — induce similar side-effects as well as a comparable therapeutical efficacy, in agreement with the results reported from analogous investigations.

Non-venomous snake bite and snake bite without envenoming in a brazilian teaching hospital: analysis of 91 cases

A retrospective survey of 473 cases of snake bite admitted to a Brazilian teaching hospital from 1984 to 1990 revealed 91 cases of bite without envenoming and/or caused by non-venomous snakes. In 17 of these cases the snake was identified, and one patient was bitten by a snake-like reptile (Amphisbaena mertensii). In 43 cases diagnosis was made on clinical grounds (fang marks in the absence of signs of envenoming). The other 30 cases were of patients who complained of being bitten but who did not show any sign of envenoming or fang mark. Most cases occurred in men (66;73%), in the 10-19 years age group (26;29%), in the lower limbs (51/74;69%), between 6 A. M. and 2 P.M. (49;61%) and in the month of April (16; 18%). One patient bitten by Philodryas olfersii developed severe local pain, swelling and redness at the site of the bite, with normal clotting time. The patient bitten by Drymarcon corais was misdiagnosed as being bitten by a snake of the genus Bothrops, was given the specific antivenom, and developed anaphylaxis. One patient bitten by Sibynomorphus mikanii presented prolonged clotting time, and was also given antivenom as a case of Bothrops bite. Correct identification of venomous snakes by physicians is necessary to provide correct treatment to victims of snake bite, avoiding unnecessary distress to the patient, and overprescription of antivenom, which may eventually cause severe untoward effects.

Desigualdades socioeconómicas na doença cardiovascular em Portugal : estudo baseado no 4º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde

RESUMO - Em Portugal, as doenças cardiovasculares (DCV), incluindo o acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) e a doença cardíaca isquémica (DCI), são das principais causas de morbi-mortalidade e invalidez. Sabe-se que o nível socioeconómico (NSE) influencia o estado de saúde, todavia são escassas as evidências sobre as desigualdades socioeconómicas na DCV em Portugal. O objectivo deste estudo foi analisar a distribuição da DCV de acordo com o NSE na população portuguesa. Foi realizado um estudo transversal exploratório-descritivo usando a base de dados do 4º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde, 2005/06. As desigualdades socioeconómicas nas DCV, AVC e DCI, factores de risco [sedentarismo, hipertensão arterial (HTA), diabetes mellitus (DM), tabagismo, obesidade e sofrimento psicológico (Mental Health Inventory ≤ 52)] e número de consultas médicas, foram analisadas através dos odds ratio por NSE (rendimento familiar equivalente, escala modificada da OCDE) com intervalo de confiança de 95% e dos índices e curvas de concentração. Dos 21 807 indivíduos, 53,34% são do sexo feminino, a idade média é de 54±11 e entre 35 e 74 anos. A DCV, a DCI, o AVC, a HTA, a DM e a obesidade estão associados com NSE mais baixos, o tabagismo está associado aos NSE mais elevados, enquanto o sedentarismo, o número de consultas médicas e o sofrimento psicológico não apresentam associação significativa com o NSE. Os resultados revelam a associação entre os estilos de vida, morbilidade e NSE e demonstram que são necessárias políticas de saúde mais abrangentes, de acordo com as características individuais, culturais e socioeconómicas e dirigidas à promoção da saúde e prevenção da doença. -------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT - Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD), are the leading causes of morbidity, mortality and disability in Portugal. It is known that socioeconomic status (SES) influences health status; however there is little evidence about socioeconomic inequalities in CVD in Portugal. The aim of this study was to analyze the distribution of CVD according to SES in the Portuguese population. We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive exploratory study using the database of the 4th National Survey of Health, 2005/06. Socioeconomic inequalities in CVD, stroke, IHD, risk factors [physical inactivity, arterial hypertension (AHT), diabetes mellitus (DM), smoking, obesity and psychological distress (Mental Health Inventory ≤ 52)], as well as the number of medical visits, were analyzed by SES (family income using the OECD modified equivalent scale) using odds ratio (confidence interval = 95%), and concentration curves and indices. Of the 21 807 individuals, 53.34% are female, aged between 35 and 74 with mean 54 ± 11 years. CVD, IHD, stroke, AHT, MD and obesity are associated with lower SES, smoking is associated with higher SES, while physical inactivity, number of medical visits and psychological distress showed no significant association with SES. Results suggest an association between lifestyle, morbidity and SES. They also demonstrate the need for comprehensive health strategies, involving health promotion and disease prevention, that incorporate individual, cultural and socioeconomic characteristics.

Epilepsy and Cerebral Palsy: Characteristics and Trends in Children Born in 1976 - 1998

Background: Although epilepsy is common in children with cerebral palsy (CP), no data exists on prevalence rates of CP and epilepsy. Aims: To describe epilepsy in children with CP, and to examine the association between epilepsy and neonatal characteristics, associated impairments and CP subtypes. Methods: Data on 9654 children with CP born between 1976 and 1998 and registered in 17 European registers belonging to the SCPE network (Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe)were analyzed. Results: A total of 3424 (35%) children had a history of epilepsy. Among them, seventy-two percent were on medication at time of registration. Epilepsy was more frequent in children with a dyskinetic or bilateral spastic type and with other associated impairments. The prevalence of CP with epilepsy was 0.69 (99% CI, 0.66e0.72) per 1000 live births and followed a quadratic trend with an increase from 1976 to 1983 and a decrease afterwards. Neonatal characteristics independently associated with epilepsy were the presence of a brain malformation or a syndrome, a term or moderately preterm birth compared with a very premature birth, and signs of perinatal distress including neonatal seizures, neonatal ventilation and admission to a neonatal care unit. Conclusions: The prevalence of CP with epilepsy followed a quadratic trend in 1976e1998 and mirrored that of the prevalence of CP during this period. The observed relationship between epilepsy and associated impairments was expected; however it requires longitudinal studies to be better understood.

The 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Infection: Renal Histopathology Findings in Two Infected Patients

Background: Acute kidney injury in the pandemic swine origin influenza A virus (H1N1) infection has been reported as coursing with severe illness, although renal pathogenic mechanisms and histologic features are still being characterised. Case Report: We present two patients admitted with H1N1 pneumonia, sepsis, acute respiratory distress syndrome and need for invasive mechanical ventilation who developed acute kidney injury and became dialysis-dependent. In both cases a kidney biopsy was performed to establish a definitive diagnosis. Severe acute tubular necrosis was identified, with no further abnormalities. Conclusion: This report seems to confirm that the acute kidney injury in H1N1 infection is focused on the tubular cells. Our cases corroborate the renal histopathologic findings of other studies, highlighting the central role of the tubular cell. We bring new evidence of the histopathology of AKI in H1N1 infection since our data were collected in living patients and not via post-mortem studies.