Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

The problem of nitrogen disposal in the obese

Amino-N is preserved because of the scarcity and nutritional importance of protein. Excretion requires its conversion to ammonia, later incorporated into urea. Under conditions of excess dietary energy, the body cannot easily dispose of the excess amino-N against the evolutively adapted schemes that prevent its wastage; thus ammonia and glutamine formation (and urea excretion) are decreased. High lipid (and energy) availability limits the utilisation of glucose, and high glucose spares the production of ammonium from amino acids, limiting the synthesis of glutamine and its utilisation by the intestine and kidney. The amino acid composition of the diet affects the production of ammonium depending on its composition and the individual amino acid catabolic pathways. Surplus amino acids enhance protein synthesis and growth, and the synthesis of non-protein-N-containing compounds. But these outlets are not enough; consequently, less-conventional mechanisms are activated, such as increased synthesis of NO∙ followed by higher nitrite (and nitrate) excretion and changes in the microbiota. There is also a significant production of N(2) gas, through unknown mechanisms. Health consequences of amino-N surplus are difficult to fathom because of the sparse data available, but it can be speculated that the effects may be negative, largely because the fundamental N homeostasis is stretched out of normalcy, forcing the N removal through pathways unprepared for that task. The unreliable results of hyperproteic diets, and part of the dysregulation found in the metabolic syndrome may be an unwanted consequence of this N disposal conflict.

Generating a raster map presentation of a forest resource by solving a transportation problem

Abstract

An Improved Hybrid Model for the Generic Hoist Scheduling Problem

Peer-reviewed

The continuous wavelet transform as a maximum entropy solution of the corresponding inverse problem

The continuous wavelet transform is obtained as a maximumentropy solution of the corresponding inverse problem. It is well knownthat although a signal can be reconstructed from its wavelet transform,the expansion is not unique due to the redundancy of continuous wavelets.Hence, the inverse problem has no unique solution. If we want to recognizeone solution as "optimal", then an appropriate decision criterion hasto be adopted. We show here that the continuous wavelet transform is an"optimal" solution in a maximum entropy sense.

Heuristic procedures for solving the General Assembly Line Balancing Problem with Setups (GALBPS)

The General Assembly Line Balancing Problem with Setups (GALBPS) was recently defined in the literature. It adds sequence-dependent setup time considerations to the classical Simple Assembly Line Balancing Problem (SALBP) as follows: whenever a task is assigned next to another at the same workstation, a setup time must be added to compute the global workstation time, thereby providing the task sequence inside each workstation. This paper proposes over 50 priority-rule-based heuristic procedures to solve GALBPS, many of which are an improvement upon heuristic procedures published to date.

Frames: a maximum entropy statistical estimate of the inverse problem

A maximum entropy statistical treatment of an inverse problem concerning frame theory is presented. The problem arises from the fact that a frame is an overcomplete set of vectors that defines a mapping with no unique inverse. Although any vector in the concomitant space can be expressed as a linear combination of frame elements, the coefficients of the expansion are not unique. Frame theory guarantees the existence of a set of coefficients which is “optimal” in a minimum norm sense. We show here that these coefficients are also “optimal” from a maximum entropy viewpoint.

Stage fright: its experience as a problem and coping with it.

PURPOSE AND METHOD: This questionnaire survey of 190 university music students assessed negative feelings of music performance anxiety (MPA) before performing, the experience of stage fright as a problem, and how closely they are associated with each other. The study further investigated whether the experience of stage fright as a problem and negative feelings of MPA predict the coping behavior of the music students. Rarely addressed coping issues were assessed, i.e., self-perceived effectiveness of different coping strategies, knowledge of possible risks and acceptance of substance-based coping strategies, and need for more support.RESULTS: The results show that one-third of the students experienced stage fright as a problem and that this was only moderately correlated with negative feelings of MPA. The experience of stage fright as a problem significantly predicted the frequency of use and the acceptance of medication as a coping strategy. Breathing exercises and self-control techniques were rated as effective as medication. Finally, students expressed a strong need to receive more support (65%) and more information (84%) concerning stage fright.CONCLUSION: Stage fright was experienced as a problem and perceived as having negative career consequences by a considerable percentage of the surveyed students. In addition to a desire for more help and support, the students expressed an openness and willingness to seriously discuss and address the topic of stage fright. This provides a necessary and promising basis for optimal career preparation and, hence, an opportunity to prevent occupational problems in professional musicians. [Authors]

Bioreporters and biosensors for arsenic detection. Biotechnological solutions for a world-wide pollution problem.

A wide variety of whole cell bioreporter and biosensor assays for arsenic detection has been developed over the past decade. The assays permit flexible detection instrumentation while maintaining excellent method of detection limits in the environmentally relevant range of 10-50 μg arsenite per L and below. New emerging trends focus on genetic rewiring of reporter cells and/or integration into microdevices for more optimal detection. A number of case studies have shown realistic field applicability of bioreporter assays.

Peso problem anddevaluation expectations: Evidence from Latin America

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia peso-ongelmaa sekä devalvaatio-odotuksia seuraavissa Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa: Argentiina, Brasilia, Costa Rica, Uruguay ja Venezuela. Lisäksi tutkitaan, onko peso-ongelmalla mahdollista selittää korkojen epäsäännöllistä käyttäytymistä ennen todellisen devalvaation tapahtumista. Jotta näiden tutkiminen olisi mahdollista, lasketaan markkinoiden odotettu devalvaation todennäköisyys tutkittavissa maissa. Odotettu devalvaation todennäköisyys lasketaan aikavälillä tammikuusta 1996 joulukuuhun 2006 käyttäen kahta erilaista mallia. Korkoero-mallin mukaan maiden välisestä korkoerosta on mahdollista laskea markkinoiden devalvaatio-odotukset. Toiseksi, Probit-mallissa käytetään useita makrotaloudellisia tekijöitä selittävinä muuttujina laskettaessa odotettua devalvaation todennäköisyyttä. Lisäksi tutkitaan, miten yksittäisten makrotaloudellisten muuttujien kehitys vaikuttaa odotettuun devalvaation todennäköisyyteen. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että tutkituissa Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa oli peso-ongelma aikavälillä tammikuusta 1996 joulukuuhun 2006. Korkoero-mallin tulosten mukaan peso-ongelma löytyi kaikista muista tutkituista maista lukuun ottamatta Argentiinaa. Vastaavasti Probit-mallin mukaan peso-ongelma löytyi kaikista tutkituista maista. Tulokset osoittavat myös, että korkojen epäsäännöllinen kehitys ennen varsinaista devalvaatiota on mahdollista selittää peso-ongelmalla. Probit-mallin tulokset osoittavat lisäksi, että makrotaloudellisten muuttujien kehityksellä ei ole mitään tiettyä kaavaa liittyen siihen, kuinka ne vaikuttavat markkinoiden devalvaatio-odotuksiin Latinalaisessa Amerikassa. Pikemmin vaikutukset näyttävät olevan maakohtaisia.

A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patents in the Information and Communications Technology Sector - Development Trends, Problem Areas and Pressures for Change

The patent system was created for the purpose of promoting innovation by granting the inventors a legally defined right to exclude others in return for public disclosure. Today, patents are being applied and granted in greater numbers than ever, particularly in new areas such as biotechnology and information andcommunications technology (ICT), in which research and development (R&D) investments are also high. At the same time, the patent system has been heavily criticized. It has been claimed that it discourages rather than encourages the introduction of new products and processes, particularly in areas that develop quickly, lack one-product-one-patent correlation, and in which theemergence of patent thickets is characteristic. A further concern, which is particularly acute in the U.S., is the granting of so-called 'bad patents', i.e. patents that do not factually fulfil the patentability criteria. From the perspective of technology-intensive companies, patents could,irrespective of the above, be described as the most significant intellectual property right (IPR), having the potential of being used to protect products and processes from imitation, to limit competitors' freedom-to-operate, to provide such freedom to the company in question, and to exchange ideas with others. In fact, patents define the boundaries of ownership in relation to certain technologies. They may be sold or licensed on their ownor they may be components of all sorts of technology acquisition and licensing arrangements. Moreover, with the possibility of patenting business-method inventions in the U.S., patents are becoming increasingly important for companies basing their businesses on services. The value of patents is dependent on the value of the invention it claims, and how it is commercialized. Thus, most of them are worth very little, and most inventions are not worth patenting: it may be possible to protect them in other ways, and the costs of protection may exceed the benefits. Moreover, instead of making all inventions proprietary and seeking to appropriate as highreturns on investments as possible through patent enforcement, it is sometimes better to allow some of them to be disseminated freely in order to maximize market penetration. In fact, the ideology of openness is well established in the software sector, which has been the breeding ground for the open-source movement, for instance. Furthermore, industries, such as ICT, that benefit from network effects do not shun the idea of setting open standards or opening up their proprietary interfaces to allow everyone todesign products and services that are interoperable with theirs. The problem is that even though patents do not, strictly speaking, prevent access to protected technologies, they have the potential of doing so, and conflicts of interest are not rare. The primary aim of this dissertation is to increase understanding of the dynamics and controversies of the U.S. and European patent systems, with the focus on the ICT sector. The study consists of three parts. The first part introduces the research topic and the overall results of the dissertation. The second part comprises a publication in which academic, political, legal and business developments that concern software and business-method patents are investigated, and contentiousareas are identified. The third part examines the problems with patents and open standards both of which carry significant economic weight inthe ICT sector. Here, the focus is on so-called submarine patents, i.e. patentsthat remain unnoticed during the standardization process and then emerge after the standard has been set. The factors that contribute to the problems are documented and the practical and juridical options for alleviating them are assessed. In total, the dissertation provides a good overview of the challenges and pressures for change the patent system is facing,and of how these challenges are reflected in standard setting.

A Sequential Allocation Problem: The Asymptotic Distribution of Resources

In this paper we consider a sequential allocation problem with n individuals. The first individual can consume any amount of some endowment leaving the remaining for the second individual, and so on. Motivated by the limitations associated with the cooperative or non-cooperative solutions we propose a new approach. We establish some axioms that should be satisfied, representativeness, impartiality, etc. The result is a unique asymptotic allocation rule. It is shown for n = 2; 3; 4; and a claim is made for general n. We show that it satisfies a set of desirable properties. Key words: Sequential allocation rule, River sharing problem, Cooperative and non-cooperative games, Dictator and ultimatum games. JEL classification: C79, D63, D74.

The global carbon budget:a conflicting claims problem

Despite global environmental governance has traditionally couched global warming in terms of annual CO2 emissions (a flow), global mean temperature is actually determined by cumulative CO2 emissions in the atmosphere (a stock). Thanks to advances of scientific community, nowadays it is possible to quantify the \global carbon budget", that is, the amount of available cumulative CO2 emissions before crossing the 2oC threshold (Meinshausen et al., 2009). The current approach proposes to analyze the allocation of such global carbon budget among countries as a classical conflicting claims problem (O'Neill, 1982). Based on some appealing principles, it is proposed an efficient and sustainable allocation of the available carbon budget from 2000 to 2050 taking into account different environmental risk scenarios. Keywords: Carbon budget, Conflicting claims problem, Distribution, Climate change. JEL classification: C79, D71, D74, H41, H87, Q50, Q54, Q58.

Cyclicity versus center problem

We prove that there are one-parameter families of planar differential equations for which the center problem has a trivial solution and on the other hand the cyclicity of the weak focus is arbitrarily high. We illustrate this phenomenon in several examples for which this cyclicity is computed.