Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

The association of chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment with foot ulceration and major amputation

Objective The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5 and dialysis treatment on incidence of foot ulceration and major lower extremity amputation in comparison to CKD stage 3. Methods In this retrospective study, all individuals who visited our hospital between 2006 and 2012 because of CKD stages 3 to 5 or dialysis treatment were included. Medical records were reviewed for incidence of foot ulceration and major amputation. The time from CKD 3, CKD 4-5, and dialysis treatment until first foot ulceration and first major lower extremity amputation was calculated and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Diabetes mellitus, peripheral arterial disease, peripheral neuropathy, and foot deformities were included for potential confounding. Results A total of 669 individuals were included: 539 in CKD 3, 540 in CKD 4-5, and 259 in dialysis treatment (individuals could progress from one group to the next). Unadjusted foot ulcer incidence rates per 1000 patients per year were 12 for CKD 3, 47 for CKD 4-5, and 104 for dialysis (P < .001). In multivariate analyses, the hazard ratio for incidence of foot ulceration was 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-6.3) in CKD 4-5 and 7.6 (95% CI, 4.8-12.1) in dialysis treatment compared with CKD 3. Hazard ratios for incidence of major amputation were 9.5 (95% CI, 2.1-43.0) and 15 (95% CI, 3.3-71.0), respectively. Conclusions CKD 4-5 and dialysis treatment are independent risk factors for foot ulceration and major amputation compared with CKD 3. Maximum effort is needed in daily clinical practice to prevent foot ulcers and their devastating consequences in all individuals with CKD 4-5 or dialysis treatment.

Microeconometric Studies on Unemployment and Business Cycles

Väitöskirja koostuu neljästä esseestä, joissa tutkitaan empiirisen työntaloustieteen kysymyksiä. Ensimmäinen essee tarkastelee työttömyysturvan tason vaikutusta työllistymiseen Suomessa. Vuonna 2003 ansiosidonnaista työttömyysturvaa korotettiin työntekijöille, joilla on pitkä työhistoria. Korotus oli keskimäärin 15 % ja se koski ensimmäistä 150 työttömyyspäivää. Tutkimuksessa arvioidaan korotuksen vaikutus vertailemalla työllistymisen todennäköisyyksiä korotuksen saaneen ryhmän ja vertailuryhmän välillä ennen uudistusta ja sen jälkeen. Tuloksien perusteella työttömyysturvan korotus laski työllistymisen todennäköisyyttä merkittävästi, keskimäärin noin 16 %. Korotuksen vaikutus on suurin työttömyyden alussa ja se katoaa kun oikeus korotettuun ansiosidonnaiseen päättyy. Toinen essee tutkii työttömyyden pitkän aikavälin kustannuksia Suomessa keskittyen vuosien 1991 – 1993 syvään lamaan. Laman aikana toimipaikkojen sulkeminen lisääntyi paljon ja työttömyysaste nousi yli 13 prosenttiyksikköä. Tutkimuksessa verrataan laman aikana toimipaikan sulkemisen vuoksi työttömäksi jääneitä parhaassa työiässä olevia miehiä työllisinä pysyneisiin. Työttömyyden vaikutusta tarkastellaan kuuden vuoden seurantajaksolla. Vuonna 1999 työttömyyttä laman aikana kokeneen ryhmän vuosiansiot olivat keskimäärin 25 % alemmat kuin vertailuryhmässä. Tulojen menetys johtui sekä alhaisemmasta työllisyydestä että palkkatasosta. Kolmannessa esseessä tarkastellaan Suomen 1990-luvun alun laman aiheuttamaa työttömyysongelmaa tutkimalla työttömyyden kestoon vaikuttavia tekijöitä yksilötasolla. Kiinnostuksen kohteena on työttömyyden rakenteen ja työn kysynnän muutoksien vaikutus keskimääräiseen kestoon. Usein oletetaan, että laman seurauksena työttömäksi jää keskimääräistä huonommin työllistyviä henkilöitä, jolloin se itsessään pidentäisi keskimääräistä työttömyyden kestoa. Tuloksien perusteella makrotason kysyntävaikutus oli keskeinen työttömyyden keston kannalta ja rakenteen muutoksilla oli vain pieni kestoa lisäävä vaikutus laman aikana. Viimeisessä esseessä tutkitaan suhdannevaihtelun vaikutusta työpaikkaonnettomuuksien esiintymiseen. Tutkimuksessa käytetään ruotsalaista yksilötason sairaalahoitoaineistoa, joka on yhdistetty populaatiotietokantaan. Aineiston avulla voidaan tutkia vaihtoehtoisia selityksiä onnettomuuksien lisääntymiselle noususuhdanteessa, minkä on esitetty johtuvan esim. stressin tai kiireen vaikutuksesta. Tuloksien perusteella työpaikkaonnettomuudet ovat syklisiä, mutta vain tiettyjen ryhmien kohdalla. Työvoiman rakenteen vaihtelu saattaa selittää osan naisten onnettomuuksien syklisyydestä. Miesten kohdalla vain vähemmän vakavat onnettomuudet ovat syklisiä, mikä saattaa johtua strategisesta käyttäytymisestä.

Ecological consequences of genetic modifications - an invasion analysis approach

Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.

Thrombophilia and direct thrombin inhibitor lepirudin clinical and monitoring aspects

Thrombophilia (TF) predisposes both to venous and arterial thrombosis at a young age. TF may also impact the thrombosis or stenosis of hemodialysis (HD) vascular access in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). When involved in severe thrombosis TF may associate with inappropriate response to anticoagulation. Lepirudin, a potent direct thrombin inhibitor (DTI), indicated for heparin-induced thrombocytopenia-related thrombosis, could offer a treatment alternative in TF. Monitoring of narrow-ranged lepirudin demands new insights also in laboratory. The above issues constitute the targets in this thesis. We evaluated the prevalence of TF in patients with ESRD and its impact upon thrombosis- or stenosis-free survival of the vascular access. Altogether 237 ESRD patients were prospectively screened for TF and thrombogenic risk factors prior to HD access surgery in 2002-2004 (mean follow-up of 3.6 years). TF was evident in 43 (18%) of the ESRD patients, more often in males (23 vs. 9%, p=0.009). Known gene mutations of FV Leiden and FII G20210A occurred in 4%. Vascular access sufficiently matured in 226 (95%). The 1-year thrombosis- and stenosis-free access survival was 72%. Female gender (hazards ratio, HR, 2.5; 95% CI 1.6-3.9) and TF (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.3) were independent risk factors for the shortened thrombosis- and stenosis-free survival. Additionally, TF or thrombogenic background was found in relatively young patients having severe thrombosis either in hepatic veins (Budd-Chiari syndrome, BCS, one patient) or inoperable critical limb ischemia (CLI, six patients). Lepirudin was evaluated in an off-label setting in the severe thrombosis after inefficacious traditional anticoagulation without other treatment options except severe invasive procedures, such as lower extremity amputation. Lepirudin treatments were repeatedly monitored clinically and with laboratory assessments (e.g. activated partial thromboplastin time, APTT). Our preliminary studies with lepirudin in thrombotic calamities appeared safe, and no bleeds occurred. An effective DTI lepirudin calmed thrombosis as all patients gradually recovered. Only one limb amputation was performed 3 years later during the follow-up (mean 4 years). Furthermore, we aimed to overcome the limitations of APTT and confounding effects of warfarin (INR of 1.5-3.9) and lupus anticoagulant (LA). Lepirudin responses were assessed in vitro by five specific laboratory methods. Ecarin chromogenic assay (ECA) or anti-Factor IIa (anti-FIIa) correlated precisely (r=0.99) with each other and with spiked lepirudin in all plasma pools: normal, warfarin, and LA-containing plasma. In contrast, in the presence of warfarin and LA both APTT and prothrombinase-induced clotting time (PiCT®) were limited by non-linear and imprecise dose responses. As a global coagulation test APTT is useful in parallel to the precise chromogenic methods ECA or Anti-FIIa in challenging clinical situations. Lepirudin treatment requires multidisciplinary approach to ensure appropriate patient selection, interpretation of laboratory monitoring, and treatment safety. TF seemed to be associated with complicated thrombotic events, in venous (BCS), arterial (CLI), and vascular access systems. TF screening should be aimed to patients with repeated access complications or prior unprovoked thromboembolic events. Lepirudin inhibits free and clot-bound thrombin which heparin fails to inhibit. Lepirudin seems to offer a potent and safe option for treatment of severe thrombosis. Multi-centered randomized trials are necessary to assess the possible management of complicated thrombotic events with DTIs like lepirudin and seek prevention options against access complications.

IMPOSE (IMProving Outcomes after Sepsis)—the effect of a multidisciplinary follow-up service on health-related quality of life in patients postsepsis syndromes—a double-blinded randomised controlled trial: protocol

Introduction Patients post sepsis syndromes have a poor quality of life and a high rate of recurring illness or mortality. Follow-up clinics have been instituted for patients postgeneral intensive care but evidence is sparse, and there has been no clinic specifically for survivors of sepsis. The aim of this trial is to investigate if targeted screening and appropriate intervention to these patients can result in an improved quality of life (Short Form 36 health survey (SF36V.2)), decreased mortality in the first 12 months, decreased readmission to hospital and/or decreased use of health resources. Methods and analysis 204 patients postsepsis syndromes will be randomised to one of the two groups. The intervention group will attend an outpatient clinic two monthly for 6 months and receive screening and targeted intervention. The usual care group will remain under the care of their physician. To analyse the results, a baseline comparison will be carried out between each group. Generalised estimating equations will compare the SF36 domain scores between groups and across time points. Mortality will be compared between groups using a Cox proportional hazards (time until death) analysis. Time to first readmission will be compared between groups by a survival analysis. Healthcare costs will be compared between groups using a generalised linear model. Economic (health resource) evaluation will be a within-trial incremental cost utility analysis with a societal perspective. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC; HREC/13/QRBW/17), The University of Queensland HREC (2013000543), Griffith University (RHS/08/14/HREC) and the Australian Government Department of Health (26/2013). The results of this study will be submitted to peer-reviewed intensive care journals and presented at national and international intensive care and/or rehabilitation conferences.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

Mapping of Average Shear Wave Velocity for Bangalore Region: A Case Study

Mapping the shear wave velocity profile is an important part in seismic hazard and microzonation studies. The shear wave velocity of soil in the city of Bangalore was mapped using the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) technique. An empirical relationship was found between the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) corrected N value ((N1)60cs) and measured shear wave velocity (Vs). The survey points were selected in such a way that the results represent the entire Bangalore region, covering an area of 220 km2. Fifty-eight 1-D and 20 2-D MASW surveys were performed and their velocity profiles determined. The average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soils was evaluated for depths of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, 20 m, 25 m and 30 m. The sub-soil classification was made for seismic local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30-m depth (Vs30) of sites using the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and International Building Code (IBC) classification. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW closely matches with the soil layers identified in SPT bore holes. Estimation of local site effects for an earthquake requires knowledge of the dynamic properties of soil, which is usually expressed in terms of shear wave velocity. Hence, to make use of abundant SPT data available on many geotechnical projects in Bangalore, an attempt was made to develop a relationship between Vs (m/s) and (N1)60cs. The measured shear wave velocity at 38 locations close to SPT boreholes was used to generate the correlation between the corrected N values and shear wave velocity. A power fit model correlation was developed with a regression coefficient (R2) of 0.84. This relationship between shear wave velocity and corrected SPT N values correlates well with the Japan Road Association equations.

The ambient aerosol characterization during the prescribed bushfire season in Brisbane 2013

Prescribed burnings are conducted in Queensland each year from August until November aiming to decrease the impact of bushfire hazards and maintain the health of vegetation. This study reports chemical characteristics of the ambient aerosol, with a focus on source apportionment of the organic aerosol (OA)fraction, during the prescribed biomass burning (BB) season in Brisbane 2013. All measurements were conducted within the International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health (ILAQH) located in Brisbane’s Central Business District. Chemical composition, degree of ageing and the influence of BB emission on the air quality of central Brisbane were characterized using a compact Time of Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (cToF-AMS). AMS loadings were dominated by OA (64 %), followed by, sulfate (17 %), ammonium (14 %) and nitrates (5 %). Source apportionment was applied on the AMS OA mass spectra via the multilinear engine solver (ME-2) implementation within the recently developed Source Finder (SoFi) interface. Six factors were extracted including hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), cooking-related OA (COA), biomass burning OA (BBOA), low-volatility oxygenated OA (LV-OOA), semivolatile oxygenated OA (SV-OOA), and nitrogen-enriched OA (NOA). The aerosol fraction that was attributed to BB factor was 9 %, on average over the sampling period. The high proportion of oxygenated OA (72 %), typically representing aged emissions, could possess a fraction of oxygenated species transformed from BB components on their way to the sampling site.

Flood risk information, actual floods and property values: A quasi-experimental analysis

Hedonic property price analysis tells us that property prices can be affected by natural hazards such as floods. This paper examines the impact of flood-related variables (among other factors) on property values, and examines the effect of the release of flood risk map information on property values by comparing the impact with the effect of an actual flood incidence. An examination of the temporal variation of flood impacts on property values is also made. The study is the first of its kind where the impact of the release of flood risk map information to the public is compared with an actual flood incident. In this study, we adopt a spatial quasi-experimental analysis using the release of flood risk maps by Brisbane City Council in Queensland, Australia, in 2009 and the actual floods of 2011. The results suggest that property buyers are more responsive to the actual incidence of floods than to the disclosure of information to the public on the risk of floods.

Eye movements and road hazard detection: Effects of blur and distractors

Purpose To examine the effects of optical blur, auditory distractors and age on eye movement patterns while performing a driving hazard perception test (HPT). Methods Twenty young (mean age 27.1 ± 4.6 years) and 20 older (73.3 ± 5.7 years) drivers with normal vision completed a HPT in a repeated-measures counterbalanced design while their eye movements were recorded. Testing was performed under two visual (best-corrected vision and with +2.00DS blur) and two distractor (with and without auditory distraction) conditions. Participants were required to respond to road hazards appearing in the HPT videos of real-world driving scenes and their hazard response times were recorded. Results Blur and distractors each significantly delayed hazard response time, by 0.42 and 0.76s respectively (p<0.05). A significant interaction between age and distractors indicated that older drivers were more affected by distractors than young drivers (response with distractors delayed by 0.96 and 0.60s respectively). There were no other two- or three-way interaction effect on response time. With blur, both groups fixated significantly longer on hazards before responding compared to best-corrected vision. In the presence of distractors, both groups exhibited delayed first fixation on the hazards and spent less time fixating on the hazards. There were also significant differences in eye movement characteristics between groups, where older drivers exhibited smaller saccades, delayed first fixation on hazards, and shorter fixation duration on hazards compared to the young drivers. Conclusions Collectively, the findings of delayed hazard response times and alterations in eye movement patterns with blur and distractors provide further evidence that visual impairment and distractors are independently detrimental to driving safety given that delayed hazard response times are linked to increased crash risk.

Spectral unmixing with estimated adaptive endmember index using Extended Support Vector Machine

The most difficult operation in the flood inundation mapping using optical flood images is to separate fully inundated areas from the ‘wet’ areas where trees and houses are partly covered by water. This can be referred as a typical problem the presence of mixed pixels in the images. A number of automatic information extraction image classification algorithms have been developed over the years for flood mapping using optical remote sensing images. Most classification algorithms generally, help in selecting a pixel in a particular class label with the greatest likelihood. However, these hard classification methods often fail to generate a reliable flood inundation mapping because the presence of mixed pixels in the images. To solve the mixed pixel problem advanced image processing techniques are adopted and Linear Spectral unmixing method is one of the most popular soft classification technique used for mixed pixel analysis. The good performance of linear spectral unmixing depends on two important issues, those are, the method of selecting endmembers and the method to model the endmembers for unmixing. This paper presents an improvement in the adaptive selection of endmember subset for each pixel in spectral unmixing method for reliable flood mapping. Using a fixed set of endmembers for spectral unmixing all pixels in an entire image might cause over estimation of the endmember spectra residing in a mixed pixel and hence cause reducing the performance level of spectral unmixing. Compared to this, application of estimated adaptive subset of endmembers for each pixel can decrease the residual error in unmixing results and provide a reliable output. In this current paper, it has also been proved that this proposed method can improve the accuracy of conventional linear unmixing methods and also easy to apply. Three different linear spectral unmixing methods were applied to test the improvement in unmixing results. Experiments were conducted in three different sets of Landsat-5 TM images of three different flood events in Australia to examine the method on different flooding conditions and achieved satisfactory outcomes in flood mapping.

Ship collision avoidance and COLREGS compliance using simulation-based control behavior selection with predictive hazard assessment

This paper describes a concept for a collision avoidance system for ships, which is based on model predictive control. A finite set of alternative control behaviors are generated by varying two parameters: offsets to the guidance course angle commanded to the autopilot and changes to the propulsion command ranging from nominal speed to full reverse. Using simulated predictions of the trajectories of the obstacles and ship, compliance with the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and collision hazards associated with each of the alternative control behaviors are evaluated on a finite prediction horizon, and the optimal control behavior is selected. Robustness to sensing error, predicted obstacle behavior, and environmental conditions can be ensured by evaluating multiple scenarios for each control behavior. The method is conceptually and computationally simple and yet quite versatile as it can account for the dynamics of the ship, the dynamics of the steering and propulsion system, forces due to wind and ocean current, and any number of obstacles. Simulations show that the method is effective and can manage complex scenarios with multiple dynamic obstacles and uncertainty associated with sensors and predictions.

Mixed pixel analysis and assessment for flood mapping

The most difficult operation in flood inundation mapping using optical flood images is to map the ‘wet’ areas where trees and houses are partly covered by water. This can be referred to as a typical problem of the presence of mixed pixels in the images. A number of automatic information extracting image classification algorithms have been developed over the years for flood mapping using optical remote sensing images, with most labelling a pixel as a particular class. However, they often fail to generate reliable flood inundation mapping because of the presence of mixed pixels in the images. To solve this problem, spectral unmixing methods have been developed. In this thesis, methods for selecting endmembers and the method to model the primary classes for unmixing, the two most important issues in spectral unmixing, are investigated. We conduct comparative studies of three typical spectral unmixing algorithms, Partial Constrained Linear Spectral unmixing, Multiple Endmember Selection Mixture Analysis and spectral unmixing using the Extended Support Vector Machine method. They are analysed and assessed by error analysis in flood mapping using MODIS, Landsat and World View-2 images. The Conventional Root Mean Square Error Assessment is applied to obtain errors for estimated fractions of each primary class. Moreover, a newly developed Fuzzy Error Matrix is used to obtain a clear picture of error distributions at the pixel level. This thesis shows that the Extended Support Vector Machine method is able to provide a more reliable estimation of fractional abundances and allows the use of a complete set of training samples to model a defined pure class. Furthermore, it can be applied to analysis of both pure and mixed pixels to provide integrated hard-soft classification results. Our research also identifies and explores a serious drawback in relation to endmember selections in current spectral unmixing methods which apply fixed sets of endmember classes or pure classes for mixture analysis of every pixel in an entire image. However, as it is not accurate to assume that every pixel in an image must contain all endmember classes, these methods usually cause an over-estimation of the fractional abundances in a particular pixel. In this thesis, a subset of adaptive endmembers in every pixel is derived using the proposed methods to form an endmember index matrix. The experimental results show that using the pixel-dependent endmembers in unmixing significantly improves performance.

Prosopis, an Alien among the Sacred Trees of South India

The problematic of invasive species in an alien environment has aroused the attention of scientists all over the world for quite some time. One of the exotic tree species that has provoked special attention in the tropical drylands is Prosopis juliflora. Originating in South America, prosopis (hereafter referred to as prosopis) has been introduced in the hot and semi-arid zones of the world particularly to provide fuelwood, to stabilize sand dunes and to combat desertification. The tree has become an essential source for fuelwood and a provider of several other products and services in areas where it has become established. However, despite the numerous benefits the tree provides to rural people, in several regions prosopis has become a noxious weed with a negative impact on the environment and to the economy of farmers and landowners. In India, prosopis was introduced in Andhra Pradesh in 1877. The tree was then proclaimed as the precious child of the plant world by scientists and local people alike. The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall impact of prosopis on local rural livelihoods in the drylands of South India. Of particular interest was the examination of the different usages of the tree, especially as fuelwood, and people s perceptions of it. Furthermore, the study examined the negative impacts of the uncontrolled invasion of prosopis on croplands, and its occupation of the banks of irrigation canals and other water sources. As another central theme, this study analysed the Hindu classification system for nature and for trees in particular. In India, several tree species are regarded as sacred. This study examined the position of the exotic prosopis among sacred trees, such as the bodhi, banyan and neem trees. The principle method for collecting the field data was by using individual and thematic group interviews. These interviews were semi-structured with open ended questions. Moreover, unstructured interviews as well as general observations provided complementary information. The data were gathered during two fieldwork periods in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, in South India. The results confirmed that prosopis both provides benefits and causes hazards to different stakeholders. Farmers and agriculturalists suffer economic losses in areas where prosopis has invaded crop fields and competes with other plants for water and nutrients. On the other hand, for a significant number of poor rural people, prosopis has become an important source of livelihood benefits. This tree, which grows on government wastelands, is commonly a free resource for all and has thus become a major local source of fuelwood. It also provides several other goods and services and cash income that contributes to improve livelihoods in rural communities. Prosopis ranked lowest in the tree classificatioin system of the Hindus of South India. Although it is appreciated for many benefits it provides for poor people, it has remained an outsider compared with the indigenous tree species. On the other hand, the most sacred trees, such as the bodhi or the banyan, are completely excluded from extraction and it is seen as a sacrilege to even cut branches from any of these trees. An unexpected finding was that, in a few cases, prosopis had also been elevated to the status of a sacred tree. Goods and services from prosopis are not utilized in the most beneficial way. Silvicultural management practices are suggested that would provide additional income and employment opportunities. Interventions are recommended to control further invasion of the tree that might cause serious negative effects in the future. For Hindus, the sacred always ranks highest, even above economic gain. The conservation of sacred groves and sacred trees is a tradition that has its roots in ancient history. These socio-religious practices need to be respected and continued. Successful management of tree and forest resources depends on the willingness of the local people to manage their natural resources, and this willingness exists and has always existed in South India. Keywords: South India, drylands, livelihood, fuelwood, invasive, resource, silviculture.