Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean–atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged.

A design of e-procurement infrastructure model for public service sector

Procurement is one of major business operations in public service sector. The advance of information and communication technology (ICT) pushes this business operation to increase its efficiency and foster collaborations between the organization and its suppliers. This leads to a shift from the traditional procurement transactions to an e-procurement paradigm. Such change impacts on business process, information management and decision making. E-procurement involves various stakeholders who engage in activities based on different social and cultural practices. Therefore, a design of e-procurement system may involve complex situations analysis. This paper describes an approach of using the problem articulation method to support such analysis. This approach is applied to a case study from UAE.

Incorporation of water vapour transfer in the JULES Land Surface Model: implications for key soil variables and land surface fluxes

This study focuses on the mechanisms underlying water and heat transfer in upper soil layers, and their effects on soil physical prognostic variables and the individual components of the energy balance. The skill of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model (LSM) to simulate key soil variables, such as soil moisture content and surface temperature, and fluxes such as evaporation, is investigated. The Richards equation for soil water transfer, as used in most LSMs, was updated by incorporating isothermal and thermal water vapour transfer. The model was tested for three sites representative of semi-arid and temperate arid climates: the Jornada site (New Mexico, USA), Griffith site (Australia) and Audubon site (Arizona, USA). Water vapour flux was found to contribute significantly to the water and heat transfer in the upper soil layers. This was mainly due to isothermal vapour diffusion; thermal vapour flux also played a role at the Jornada site just after rainfall events. Inclusion of water vapour flux had an effect on the diurnal evolution of evaporation, soil moisture content and surface temperature. The incorporation of additional processes, such as water vapour flux among others, into LSMs may improve the coupling between the upper soil layers and the atmosphere, which in turn could increase the reliability of weather and climate predictions.

In Vitro Fermentation of NUTRIOSE® FB06, a wheat dextrin soluble fibre, in a continuous culture human colonic model system

Wheat dextrin soluble fibre may have metabolic and health benefits, potentially acting via mechanisms governed by the selective modulation of the human gut microbiota. Our aim was to examine the impact of wheat dextrin on the composition and metabolic activity of the gut microbiota. We used a validated in vitro three-stage continuous culture human colonic model (gut model) system comprised of vessels simulating anatomical regions of the human colon. To mimic human ingestion, 7 g of wheat dextrin (NUTRIOSE® FB06) was administered to three gut models, twice daily at 10.00 and 15.00, for a total of 18 days. Samples were collected and analysed for microbial composition and organic acid concentrations by 16S rRNA-based fluorescence in situ hybridisation and gas chromatography approaches, respectively. Wheat dextrin mediated a significant increase in total bacteria in vessels simulating the transverse and distal colon, and a significant increase in key butyrate-producing bacteria Clostridium cluster XIVa and Roseburia genus in all vessels of the gut model. The production of principal short-chain fatty acids, acetate, propionate and butyrate, which have been purported to have protective, trophic and metabolic host benefits, were increased. Specifically, wheat dextrin fermentation had a significant butyrogenic effect in all vessels of the gut model and significantly increased production of acetate (vessels 2 and 3) and propionate (vessel 3), simulating the transverse and distal regions of the human colon, respectively. In conclusion, wheat dextrin NUTRIOSE® FB06 is selectively fermented in vitro by Clostridium cluster XIVa and Roseburia genus and beneficially alters the metabolic profile of the human gut microbiota.

Development of a food-exchange model to replace saturated fat with MUFAS and n-6 PUFAS in adults at moderate cardiovascular risk

The recommendation to reduce saturated fatty acid (SFA) consumption to ≤10% of total energy (%TE) is a key public health target aimed at lowering cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Replacement of SFA with unsaturated fats may provide greater benefit than replacement with carbohydrates, yet the optimal type of fat is unclear. The aim was to develop a flexible food-exchange model to investigate the effects of substituting SFAs with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or n-6 (ω-6) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on CVD risk factors. In this parallel study, UK adults aged 21-60 y with moderate CVD risk (50% greater than the population mean) were identified using a risk assessment tool (n = 195; 56% females). Three 16-wk isoenergetic diets of specific fatty acid (FA) composition (%TE SFA:%TE MUFA:%TE n-6 PUFA) were designed using spreads, oils, dairy products, and snacks as follows: 1) SFA-rich diet (17:11:4; n = 65); 2) MUFA-rich diet (9:19:4; n = 64); and 3) n-6 PUFA-rich diet (9:13:10; n = 66). Each diet provided 36%TE total fat. Dietary targets were broadly met for all intervention groups, reaching 17.6 ± 0.4%TE SFA, 18.5 ± 0.3%TE MUFA, and 10.4 ± 0.3%TE n-6 PUFA in the respective diets, with significant overall diet effects for the changes in SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA between groups (P < 0.001). There were no differences in the changes of total fat, protein, carbohydrate, and alcohol intake or anthropometric measures between groups. Plasma phospholipid FA composition showed changes from baseline in the proportions of total SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA for each diet group, with significant overall diet effects for total SFA and MUFA between groups (P < 0.001). In conclusion, successful implementation of the food-exchange model broadly achieved the dietary target intakes for the exchange of SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA with minimal disruption to the overall diet in a free-living population. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01478958.

Key conclusions of the first international urban land surface model comparison project

he first international urban land surface model comparison was designed to identify three aspects of the urban surface-atmosphere interactions: (1) the dominant physical processes, (2) the level of complexity required to model these, and 3) the parameter requirements for such a model. Offline simulations from 32 land surface schemes, with varying complexity, contributed to the comparison. Model results were analysed within a framework of physical classifications and over four stages. The results show that the following are important urban processes; (i) multiple reflections of shortwave radiation within street canyons, (ii) reduction in the amount of visible sky from within the canyon, which impacts on the net long-wave radiation, iii) the contrast in surface temperatures between building roofs and street canyons, and (iv) evaporation from vegetation. Models that use an appropriate bulk albedo based on multiple solar reflections, represent building roof surfaces separately from street canyons and include a representation of vegetation demonstrate more skill, but require parameter information on the albedo, height of the buildings relative to the width of the streets (height to width ratio), the fraction of building roofs compared to street canyons from a plan view (plan area fraction) and the fraction of the surface that is vegetated. These results, whilst based on a single site and less than 18 months of data, have implications for the future design of urban land surface models, the data that need to be measured in urban observational campaigns, and what needs to be included in initiatives for regional and global parameter databases.

Public real estate and the term structure of interest rates: a cross-country study

Using a variation of the Nelson-Siegel term structure model we examine the sensitivity of real estate securities in six key global markets to unexpected changes in the level, slop and curvature of the yield curve. Our results confirm the time-sensitive nature of the exposure and sensitivity to interest rates and highlight the importance of considering the entire term structure of interest rates. One issue that is of particular of interest is that despite the 2007-9 financial crisis the importance of unanticipated interest rate risk weakens post 2003. Although the analysis does examine a range of markets the empirical analysis is unable to provide definitive evidence as to whether REIT and property-company markets display heightened or reduced exposure.

Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

Public participation in an environmental dispute: implications for science education

The paper, which reports the findings of a case study of an environmental dispute, focuses on the role of the key players and the way in which they interacted with the underlying science. A model is proposed that lays out some of the dimensions of the complexity of public involvement, of the understandings of the science pertinent to such socio-scientific issues, and of the way knowledge of science is represented and disseminated in such issues. The analysis focuses on the value of local knowledge in framing and engaging with the issue, on the distinction between generative and evaluative engagement, and on the type of knowledge that proved central for engagement. The implications for science education and notions of scientific literacy are discussed.

Which work characteristics predict employee outcomes for the public-sector employee? An examination of generic and occupation-specific characteristics

The wide-ranging changes that have occurred in the public sector over recent years have placed increasing demands on public-sector employees. A survey of employees within a relatively commercially-oriented public-sector organization in Australia was used to test a demand-oriented generic model of employee well-being and a variety of situation-specific variables. The presence of support at work and the amount of control an employee had over their job were found to be key predictors of employee-level outcomes. Perceptions of pay and the perception of a lack of human resources (HR) were also found to predict employee outcome variables. The results emphasize the impact that middle managers and HR managers can have in terms of reducing the detrimental employee effects that can be caused by the introduction of new public management (NPM) and the potential for a positive impact on employees. In particular, public-sector managers can use the design of jobs and the development of social support mechanisms, such as employee assistance programmes, to maintain, if not improve, the quality of working life experienced by their employees. More broadly, this study has found that the job strain model is a useful tool in a public-sector environment and is likely to be of increasing utility with the continuing introduction or consolidation of NPM over time. Managing these issues in the new public sector could be a key means of protecting the key resource of the Australian public sector - the employees.