Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

The impact of geometric non-linearities on the fatigue analysis of trailing edge bond lines in wind turbine rotor blades

The accurate prediction of stress histories for the fatigue analysis is of utmost importance for the design process of wind turbine rotor blades. As detailed, transient, and geometrically non-linear three-dimensional finite element analyses are computationally weigh too expensive, it is commonly regarded sufficient to calculate the stresses with a geometrically linear analysis and superimpose different stress states in order to obtain the complete stress histories. In order to quantify the error from geometrically linear simulations for the calculation of stress histories and to verify the practical applicability of the superposition principal in fatigue analyses, this paper studies the influence of geometric non-linearity in the example of a trailing edge bond line, as this subcomponent suffers from high strains in span-wise direction. The blade under consideration is that of the IWES IWT-7.5-164 reference wind turbine. From turbine simulations the highest edgewise loading scenario from the fatigue load cases is used as the reference. A 3D finite element model of the blade is created and the bond line fatigue assessment is performed according to the GL certification guidelines in its 2010 edition, and in comparison to the latest DNV GL standard from end of 2015. The results show a significant difference between the geometrically linear and non-linear stress analyses when the bending moments are approximated via a corresponding external loading, especially in case of the 2010 GL certification guidelines. This finding emphasizes the demand to reconsider the application of the superposition principal in fatigue analyses of modern flexible rotor blades, where geometrical nonlinearities become significant. In addition, a new load application methodology is introduced that reduces the geometrically non-linear behaviour of the blade in the finite element analysis.

Numerical analysis of wooden slabs with perforations under fire conditions

Wood is considered an ideal solution for floors and roofs building construction, due the mechanical and thermal properties, associated with acoustic conditions. These constructions have good sound absorption, heat insulation and relevant architectonic characteristics. They are used in many civil applications: concert and conference halls, auditoriums, ceilings, walls… However, the high vulnerability of wooden elements submitted to fire conditions requires the evaluation of its structural behaviour with accuracy. The main objective of this work is to present a numerical model to assess the fire resistance of wooden cellular slabs with different perforations. Also the thermal behaviour of the wooden slabs will be compared considering different material insulation, with different sizes, inside the cavities. A transient thermal analysis with nonlinear material behaviour will be solved using ANSYS© program. This study allows to verify the fire resistance, the temperature evolution and the char-layer, throughout a wooden cellular slab with perforations and considering the insulation effect inside the cavities.

Dipyridamole plus aspirin versus aspirin alone in the secondary prevention after TIA or stroke: a meta-analysis by risk

Objectives: Our aim was to study the effect of combination therapy with aspirin and dipyridamole (A+D) over aspirin alone (ASA) in secondary prevention after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke of presumed arterial origin and to perform subgroup analyses to identify patients that might benefit most from secondary prevention with A+D. Data sources: The previously published meta-analysis of individual patient data was updated with data from ESPRIT (N=2,739); trials without data on the comparison of A+D versus ASA were excluded. Review methods: A meta-analysis was performed using Cox regression, including several subgroup analyses and following baseline risk stratification. Results: A total of 7,612 patients (5 trials) were included in the analyses, 3,800 allocated to A+D and 3,812 to ASA alone. The trial-adjusted hazard ratio for the composite event of vascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke was 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.92). Hazard ratios did not differ in subgroup analyses based on age, sex, qualifying event, hypertension, diabetes, previous stroke, ischemic heart disease, aspirin dose, type of vessel disease and dipyridamole formulation, nor across baseline risk strata as assessed with two different risk scores. A+D were also more effective than ASA alone in preventing recurrent stroke, HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.68 – 0.90). Conclusion: The combination of aspirin and dipyridamole is more effective than aspirin alone in patients with TIA or ischemic stroke of presumed arterial origin in the secondary prevention of stroke and other vascular events. This superiority was found in all subgroups and was independent of baseline risk. ---------------------------7dc3521430776 Content-Disposition: form-data; name="c14_creators_1_name_family" Halkes

Transient hyperglycemia in patients with tuberculosis in Tanzania: implications for diabetes screening algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases tuberculosis risk while tuberculosis, as an infectious disease, leads to hyperglycemia. We compared hyperglycemia screening strategies in controls and patients with tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: Consecutive adults with tuberculosis and sex- and age-matched volunteers were included in a case-control study between July 2012 and June 2014. All underwent DM screening tests (fasting capillary glucose [FCG] level, 2-hour CG [2-hCG] level, and glycated hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] level) at enrollment, and cases were tested again after receipt of tuberculosis treatment. Association of tuberculosis and its outcome with hyperglycemia was assessed using logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, human immunodeficiency virus infection status, and socioeconomic status. Patients with tuberculosis and newly diagnosed DM were not treated for hyperglycemia. RESULTS: At enrollment, DM prevalence was significantly higher among patients with tuberculosis (n = 539; FCG level > 7 mmol/L, 4.5% of patients, 2-hCG level > 11 mmol/L, 6.8%; and HbA1c level > 6.5%, 9.3%), compared with controls (n = 496; 1.2%, 3.1%, and 2.2%, respectively). The association between hyperglycemia and tuberculosis disappeared after tuberculosis treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for the FCG level: 9.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.7-24.7] at enrollment vs 2.4 [95% CI, .7-8.7] at follow-up; aOR for the 2-hCG level: 6.6 [95% CI, 4.0-11.1] vs 1.6 [95% CI, .8-2.9]; and aOR for the HbA1c level, 4.2 [95% CI, 2.9-6.0] vs 1.4 [95% CI, .9-2.0]). Hyperglycemia, based on the FCG level, at enrollment was associated with tuberculosis treatment failure or death (aOR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.2-9.3). CONCLUSIONS: Transient hyperglycemia is frequent during tuberculosis, and DM needs confirmation after tuberculosis treatment. Performance of DM screening at tuberculosis diagnosis gives the opportunity to detect patients at risk of adverse outcome.

Discovery of stable and variable differences in the Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis type I, II, and III genomes by pan-genome microarray analysis

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis is an important animal pathogen widely disseminated in the environment that has also been associated with Crohn's disease in humans. Three M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis genomotypes are recognized, but genomic differences have not been fully described. To further investigate these potential differences, a 60-mer oligonucleotide microarray (designated the MAPAC array), based on the combined genomes of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis (strain K-10) and Mycobacterium avium subsp. hominissuis (strain 104), was designed and validated. By use of a test panel of defined M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis strains, the MAPAC array was able to identify a set of large sequence polymorphisms (LSPs) diagnostic for each of the three major M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis types. M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis type II strains contained a smaller genomic complement than M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis type I and M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis type III genomotypes, which included a set of genomic regions also found in M. avium subsp. hominissuis 104. Specific PCRs for genes within LSPs that differentiated M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis types were devised and shown to accurately screen a panel (n = 78) of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis strains. Analysis of insertion/deletion region INDEL12 showed deletion events causing a reduction in the complement of mycobacterial cell entry genes in M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis type II strains and significantly altering the coding of a major immunologic protein (MPT64) associated with persistence and granuloma formation. Analysis of MAPAC data also identified signal variations in several genomic regions, termed variable genomic islands (vGIs), suggestive of transient duplication/deletion events. vGIs contained significantly low GC% and were immediately flanked by insertion sequences, integrases, or short inverted repeat sequences. Quantitative PCR demonstrated that variation in vGI signals could be associated with colony growth rate and morphology.

Raman microscopy of formamide-intercalated kaolinites treated by controlled-rate thermal analysis technology

Raman spectroscopy of formamide-intercalated kaolinites treated using controlled-rate thermal analysis technology (CRTA), allowing the separation of adsorbed formamide from intercalated formamide in formamide-intercalated kaolinites, is reported. The Raman spectra of the CRTA-treated formamide-intercalated kaolinites are significantly different from those of the intercalated kaolinites, which display a combination of both intercalated and adsorbed formamide. An intense band is observed at 3629 cm-1, attributed to the inner surface hydroxyls hydrogen bonded to the formamide. Broad bands are observed at 3600 and 3639 cm-1, assigned to the inner surface hydroxyls, which are hydrogen bonded to the adsorbed water molecules. The hydroxyl-stretching band of the inner hydroxyl is observed at 3621 cm-1 in the Raman spectra of the CRTA-treated formamide-intercalated kaolinites. The results of thermal analysis show that the amount of intercalated formamide between the kaolinite layers is independent of the presence of water. Significant differences are observed in the CO stretching region between the adsorbed and intercalated formamide.

Detailed analysis of a conservative difference approximation for the time fractional diffusion equation

Diffusion equations that use time fractional derivatives are attractive because they describe a wealth of problems involving non-Markovian Random walks. The time fractional diffusion equation (TFDE) is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative with a fractional derivative of order α ∈ (0, 1). Developing numerical methods for solving fractional partial differential equations is a new research field and the theoretical analysis of the numerical methods associated with them is not fully developed. In this paper an explicit conservative difference approximation (ECDA) for TFDE is proposed. We give a detailed analysis for this ECDA and generate discrete models of random walk suitable for simulating random variables whose spatial probability density evolves in time according to this fractional diffusion equation. The stability and convergence of the ECDA for TFDE in a bounded domain are discussed. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to show the application of the present technique.

Determination of preventive maintenance lead time using hybrid analysis

The time for conducting Preventive Maintenance (PM) on an asset is often determined using a predefined alarm limit based on trends of a hazard function. In this paper, the authors propose using both hazard and reliability functions to improve the accuracy of the prediction particularly when the failure characteristic of the asset whole life is modelled using different failure distributions for the different stages of the life of the asset. The proposed method is validated using simulations and case studies.